October 15, 2023 | The Big Cycle 2

When your system, whatever it may be, is working extremely well, we used to say it’s “firing on all 8 cylinders.” What does that mean? A gasoline motor contains metal cylinders inside which the gasoline burns (hence “internal combustion engine”) and causes belts and gears to turn. A V-8 engine has eight cylinders arranged in […]

October 14, 2023 | Argentine Follows US Charging Political Oppoent To Influence Election

A prosecutor launched a criminal case Friday against Argentina’s frontrunner in this month’s presidential elections, accusing Javier Milei of deliberately causing a drop in the Argentine currency when he encouraged citizens not to save in pesos. What the United States has done to Donald Trump has set the standard for the world. We will see […]

October 14, 2023 | Middle East War Cycles Collide in Late-2023

Last month, we examined one of the two remaining (yet)-unfulfilled parallels between 2022 – 2023 and 1973 – 1974… [see Nov 22 INSIIDE Track for details]…The other (yet)-unfulfilled parallel is a Middle Eastwar or conflict (similar to the Yom Kippur War of 1973). This is a topic that has been discussed many times before – […]

October 14, 2023 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Prices Drop Further as Sales Slow and New Listings Jump Further

The Canada Home Price Benchmark Index for single family houses in fell for the third month in a row, in September by 1.3% from August, after having dropped by 1.1% and by 0.5% in the prior two months, to $815,300 (all prices in Canadian dollars). The three months in a row of declines came after […]

October 14, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday October 14th 2023

The Bottom Line Third quarter report season is “off to a good start”. Reports released to date generally have recorded higher than consensus results (notably by the U.S. money center banks). Analysts were prompted to raise estimates. Revenue and earnings gains on a year-over-year basis are projected to accelerate in the fourth quarter. The stage […]

October 13, 2023 | Resisting Financial Sentinels

Investment banks are having a rough year. Sharply higher interest rates are taking a toll. Falling asset prices since 2021 have reduced fees tied to assets under management just as bad debts are rising. Underwriting fees are not helping: year-to-date investment banks have sold 22% fewer Initial public offerings (IPOs) to the public than in 2022, and […]

October 13, 2023 | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to Run as an Independent – The Death of the Two-Party System?

This news was overshadowed by the pandemonium occurring in the Middle East. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced that he will run as an Independent candidate and is no longer aligned with the Democratic Party. The Democrats have prevented Kennedy from speaking and have offered absolutely no support. In fact, they have been trying to silence […]

October 13, 2023 | The Attack By Hamas Increases The Chance of a Wider Conflict

Last week Israel was attacked by Hamas, shocking the world. But stock markets and the price of crude oil have demonstrated remarkable complacency after this momentous event. Is this just another skirmish in an area that has been in conflict for decades or will there be serious repercussions? The classic event that the world did […]

October 13, 2023 | Health Prepping, Part 3: Intermittent Fasting

This is the third in a series (the other two are here and here) based on the idea that to be cheerfully ungovernable in the coming dark times, first and foremost you have to be healthy. And there are lots of ways (many of which your doctor won’t bother mentioning) to achieve that. Here’s an easy one. Intermittent […]

October 13, 2023 | We Just Hit a $ BILLION Per Hour

  U.S. National Debt is currently $33.5 TRILLION – and it’s rising by one BILLION dollars PER HOUR.   At the current pace, the US would add $1 trillion in Federal debt every 45 days.   U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – which represents the value of the goods and services produced in the United […]

October 12, 2023 | History Repeating All Over Again

The 1848 Berlin Revolution QUESTION: You have mentioned that the 1848 Communist Revolution that swept all of Europe was a political contagion. Am I correct in assuming this is what you suggest comes post 2024 going in 2032? Paul The French 1848 Revolution ANSWER: Yes. We all have heard of the 1846 -1852 Great Hunger/Great Irish Potato Famine. […]

October 12, 2023 | Central Bank Gold Demand Is Even Stronger Than It Looks

Central banks have morphed recently from net sellers of gold to increasingly aggressive net buyers. And the buying is even more aggressive than it seems. Here’s the story in three charts: When the global financial system nearly imploded in 2008, central banks stopped selling gold and started buying. To put this buying into context, the […]

October 12, 2023 | Hot Homeowner Accessory: Two Homes in One

More and more people are starting to understand that homes can be very expensive consumption items and ways to make them more efficient/lower per capita living costs are savvy. Secondary dwellings in primary residences are one way to do this. Whether to share shelter costs with friends, extended family, or caregivers or to generate rental […]

October 11, 2023 | Buying Power Has Halved, Do The Math

Home listings and price reductions are popping up like measles. You can see this by signing into Zillow (or many other sites). Meanwhile, offers are increasingly scarce, and a quick look at any mortgage calculator shows why. When Canadian variable rate mortgages were available at 1.65% from 2020 to early 2022, one was enabled to buy a $750,000 property […]

October 10, 2023 | Housing-Led Downturn To Rival 2008

A decade of levered fiscal and monetary incentives has enabled yet another epic capital misallocation cycle.  Now, we are in the takeback period once more. Heads up. Housing-led economic downturns have historically been the most severe, and the price of homes (US in purple below since 1996) enters this downcycle more elevated relative to income […]

October 9, 2023 | Recession Watch: Red Flags Everywhere You Look

The hardest part of writing this kind of post is sorting through all the red flags. There are just too many these days. So here are the handful that look scariest at the moment: Interest rates are above 2007 levels in a world with twice as much debt. This shouldn’t have been possible, but here […]

October 9, 2023 | Cooling Wage Growth and Loss of Full Time Jobs Confirm Weakening Economy

Cooling Wage Growth Easing Inflation Worries — DiMartino Booth Joins Charles Payne of FBN. Here is a direct video link.

October 9, 2023 | Biden’s $6 Billion Gift to Iran

October 8, 2023 | The Big Cycle

“…what I learned is whatever successes I had in life had to do more with how I dealt with what I didn’t know than what I know… “…the reason I did that book is because there are things that are happening now that never happened in our lifetime before, and I want to be like […]

October 8, 2023 | This War Is Not a Tradeable Event

The massive terrorist attack by Hamas on Israel over the weekend will unsettle the geopolitical world for the foreseeable future. The economic implications are potentially too grave to be treated merely as a tradeable event; investors should instead be thinking about safeguarding capital. Will the price of crude spike to $117 or higher, as predicted […]

October 7, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For October 7, 2023

Was Friday a turning point? Bond prices collapsed to fresh 16-year lows immediately following Friday morning’s “stronger than expected” NFP report. The US Dollar Index surged higher, while S&P futures tumbled and appeared ready to make new 4-month lows.   But ~30 minutes after the NFP report, markets reversed course, and by the end of the day, S&P futures […]

October 7, 2023 | Ukrainian Nazis

October 7, 2023 | People We Should Know: Russell Brand

British comedian/actor/podcaster Russell Brand by his own admission ran a bit wild when he first got famous, abusing various substances and behaving, as he puts it, “very, very promiscuously.” It’s not surprising, then, that he’d end up being accused of some questionable behavior. And recently that happened, as 10-year-old accounts of sexual harassment and assault have surfaced […]

October 7, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday October 7th 2023

The Bottom Line Don Vialoux was a guest on “Wolf on Bay Street” to be released at 7:00 PM EDT on Saturday on Corus Radio 640. The show was taped at noon on Thursday. Following are notes developed prior to the interview: