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Victor Adair

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Victor Adair, author of The Trading Desk Notes, began trading penny mining shares while attending the University of Victoria in 1970. He worked in the mining business in Canada and the Western United States for the next several years and also founded a precious metals trading company in 1974. He became a commodity broker in 1977 and a stock broker in 1978. Between 1977 and his retirement from the brokerage business in 2020 Victor held a number of trading, analytical and senior management roles in Canada and the USA. Victor started writing market analysis in the late 1970’s and became a widely followed currency analyst in 1983. He started doing frequent media interviews in the early 1980’s and started speaking at financial conferences in the 1990’s. He actively trades his own accounts from The Trading Desk on Vancouver Island. His personal website is

Victor Adair Blog - A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest. Paul Simon, The Boxer Over the last four weeks, the DJIA is up ~3,000 points (~9%), the Nasdaq is up ~14%, and the Mag7 is up even more. The 30-year Treasury is up ~10 points from 16-year lows, and the US Dollar Index is […]

Victor Adair Blog - Soft CPI = stocks and bonds up, USD down The Tuesday morning CPI report was marginally softer than expected; the market took that as “confirmation” that the Fed is DONE – stocks and bonds surged higher, and the USD tumbled – its biggest down day since falling on the softer-than-expected CPI report in November 2022. The […]

Victor Adair Blog - Surging Megacap Tech shares power the Nasdaq 100 to the highest weekly close since July Three weeks ago, the NAZ closed at a 6-month low as long-term interest rates hit 16-year highs, but a reversal lower in interest rates last week ignited a buying frenzy across the stock market, with the NAZ closing this week ~10% above […]

Victor Adair Blog - Stocks and bonds soared this week, and the US Dollar fell as markets believe Central banks are “done” raising interest rates Bonds 30-year Treasury futures fell ~20% from the post-SVB highs in April to last week’s 16-year lows. (Yields rose from 3.55% to 5.10%.) The market turned higher last week and soared this week on a […]

Victor Adair Blog - The Nasdaq had its best-ever first-half gain this year (~45%) but peaked in July and fell ~12% to this week’s lows The Nasdaq’s “defining moment” was made on July 18 when MSFT’s market cap soared ~$100 billion in an hour on an AI announcement, taking the share price to All-Time Highs of ~$367. Within three days, […]

Victor Adair Blog - Weekly change: Gold up, bond yields up, crude oil up, stocks down, USD down Gold Gold rallied ~$185 from 8-month lows on October 6 to this Friday’s highs, with the front-month contract closing this week above $1980 for the first time since the mid-July Key Turn Date. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, […]

Victor Adair Blog - “This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.” Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, in a statement accompanying the bank’s quarterly earnings news release. This edition of the TD Notes will be brief. After three days in Calgary attending Josef Schachter’s “Catch the Energy” conference, I returned to my desk Sunday […]

Victor Adair Blog - Was Friday a turning point? Bond prices collapsed to fresh 16-year lows immediately following Friday morning’s “stronger than expected” NFP report. The US Dollar Index surged higher, while S&P futures tumbled and appeared ready to make new 4-month lows.   But ~30 minutes after the NFP report, markets reversed course, and by the end of the day, S&P futures […]

Victor Adair Blog - August/September: Bond yields, USD and Crude oil sharply higher, stocks and gold down The yield on the long bond soared from ~3.9% on the mid-July Key Turn Date to ~4.8% (a 16-year high) on Thursday. Bond prices fell as yields rose. The US Dollar Index rallied ~7% from the mid-July KTD, rising for 11 consecutive weeks. This […]

Victor Adair Blog - KING Dollar higher for ten consecutive weeks The US Dollar Index registered its highest weekly close in ten months, up ~6% from the mid-July Key Turn Date. The Euro (the Anti-Dollar) has closed lower for ten consecutive weeks, falling ~6% from its mid-July highs. The Yen has dropped ~7% from its mid-July highs and closed this week at 10-month lows […]

Victor Adair Blog - KING Dollar rises for NINE consecutive weeks The USDX hit a 15-month low in mid-July but has rallied >5% since then. (I’ve called mid-July a Key Turn Date as several macro markets reversed course then.) The USD looks attractive as the Eurozone and China/Asia are slowing. American “exceptionalism” draws capital. The Euro traded at a 17-month high in mid-July but […]

Victor Adair Blog -   King Dollar: higher for eight consecutive weeks The US Dollar Index touched a 15-month low in mid-July (a Key Turn Date across several markets) and has rallied for eight consecutive weeks. The Euro reached a 17-month high in mid-July, then fell for eight consecutive weeks. The Yen had a counter-trend rally into mid-July but then made lower lows […]

Victor Adair Blog - The Fed is likely done raising rates in 2023 Markets were focused on US employment data during the last week of summer, and after the JOLTS, ADP and BLS reports, the chances of another rate increase from the Fed this year fell to ~30%.   Since April, short-term and long-term interest rates have been trending higher in Canada […]

Victor Adair Blog - Short-term interest rates surged higher this week Two-year Treasury futures traded to a 23-year low, the 5-year hit a 16-year low, and the 10-year closed the week at a 16-year low, but the long and ultra-long bond futures closed a little higher on the week after hitting multi-year lows on Monday. June 2024 SOFR futures […]

Victor Adair Blog - A quick report this week – my Golf Club Championship demands my participation! Interest rates keep rising The 10-year US Treasury yield hit a 16-year high of>4.3% this week. Short rates are at 20+year highs, 10-year reals touched 14-year highs, UK Gilts touched 25-year highs, and Canadian 10-year government bonds hit 13-year highs. A stronger-than-expected US economy, […]

Victor Adair Blog - Interest rates keep rising. The 1-year T-Bill yield is at 22-year highs Treasury yields are rising as governments issue more debt to “fund” the difference between income and expenses. People will buy US government debt, but at what price? Governments have discovered that voters like fiscal stimulus (expect it to continue) and don’t care about rising deficits […]

Victor Adair Blog - Stock market sentiment took another step away from “irrational exuberance” this week I wrote in the July 22 TDNotes: I’ve been skeptical of the “Magnificient Seven” rally for a few months, thinking that sentiment bordered on “irrational exuberance.” However, I respected the power of the rally and patiently waited for an opportunity to fade it. I thought the “$100 Billion in […]

Victor Adair Blog - It was Central Bank Week The FOMC met on Wednesday and raised 25 bps as expected, with markets now pricing a ~30% chance of another 25 bps at their September 19/20 meeting. Financial markets were essentially unchanged on the news.   The ECB met on Thursday and raised 25 bps as expected but surprised markets by NOT forecasting […]

Victor Adair Blog - A turning point in sizzling tech stocks? On Tuesday, MSFT announced plans to invoice corporations for employees using Microsoft AI. Within an hour; the share price rose >$20 to new All-Time Highs, adding ~$100 Billion (~4%) in market cap. By Friday’s close, those gains had evaporated, leaving the weekly chart with an ominous shooting star candlestick pattern. […]

Victor Adair Blog - Weaker-than-expected CPI ignited a risk-on surge across currency, credit and equity markets “A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.” Paul Simon, The Boxer   The US CPI report Wednesday morning was slightly weaker than expected and kicked off a surge of “risk-on” sentiment that accelerated existing short-term trends in currencies and equities: the US […]

Victor Adair Blog - Real and nominal interest rates surged higher this week Interest rates across Europe, Canada and the US rose this week, with yields on the long end sharply higher.   The yield on the US 10-year T-Note (~4.07%) is at a 15-year high; the 10-year UK bond yield (~4.70%) is also at a 15-year high; the 10-year […]

Victor Adair Blog - An Apple a day keeps the bear away AAPL surged to new All-Time Highs on Friday, up ~56% from its January lows. The market cap is now ~$3.05 Trillion. MSFT hit ATH two weeks ago and closed Friday down ~3% from those highs. The MSFT market cap is now ~$2.5 Trillion. Taken together, the market cap […]

Victor Adair Blog - Soaring stocks “pause” AAPL closed at new All-Time Highs this week, but many other stocks and the leading indices took a “pause.” Perhaps there was too much talk about “over-bought” or worries that corporate buybacks are going into their quarterly blackout period. Or maybe it was worries about institutional rebalancing next week or mounting “evidence” that […]

Victor Adair Blog - Central banks are determined to get inflation down The Fed and the ECB reminded markets again this week that they are determined to slow inflation, echoing recent statements from the BoE, the BoC and the RBA. The “explicit” message is that rates will stay higher for longer. The underlying rationale for current central bank policies is that rising inflation […]

Victor Adair Blog - The S&P and the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (the VTI) made new highs for the year this week The S&P is up >22% from last October’s low. The VTI is up ~23%. The Nasdaq 100 is up ~40% from October’s lows. The rally in the benchmark indices continues to be driven by big gains in […]
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