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Victor Adair

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Victor Adair, author of The Trading Desk Notes, began trading penny mining shares while attending the University of Victoria in 1970. He worked in the mining business in Canada and the Western United States for the next several years and also founded a precious metals trading company in 1974. He became a commodity broker in 1977 and a stock broker in 1978. Between 1977 and his retirement from the brokerage business in 2020 Victor held a number of trading, analytical and senior management roles in Canada and the USA. Victor started writing market analysis in the late 1970’s and became a widely followed currency analyst in 1983. He started doing frequent media interviews in the early 1980’s and started speaking at financial conferences in the 1990’s. He actively trades his own accounts from The Trading Desk on Vancouver Island. His personal website is www.VictorAdair.ca.

Victor Adair Blog - The S&P had its best week of the year this week; last week, it had its worst week in 18 months. Do you want to bet on next week? The S&P fell ~4% last week and bounced back ~4% this week. The S&P ended last week right on its lows. It rallied back on Monday […]

Victor Adair Blog - The S&P fell over 4% this week, its worst weekly performance in 18 months The leading American stock indices fell every day this week, with the S&P giving up ~50% of the gains made during the rally off the August 5 lows. The weekly S&P chart shows a classic bearish “double-top with lower 2nd high” pattern. […]

Victor Adair Blog - The bloom is off the AI rose; capital rotates to other sectors Wednesday’s NVDA quarterly report was strong overall but failed to meet investors’ high expectations; the share price closed the week near its lows, down ~15% from the record highs made in June. The robust gains from big-cap tech provided most of the gains for the […]

Victor Adair Blog - Powell says the time has come to begin cutting interest rates Markets were expecting Powell to announce that it was “time” to start cutting rates (to lessen the downside risks to employment – the other leg of the Fed’s dual mandate), but the “unequivocally dovish” tone of his Jackson Hole announcement surprised markets.   Small caps […]

Victor Adair Blog - Mean reversion was nasty on Monday, but mellowed by Friday The Nikkei plunged to a 10-month low on Monday, down ~28% from July’s record highs and down ~20% in three trading days (the sharpest decline since the crash in October 1987.) By Friday’s close, the Nikkei had rebounded ~15% to close slightly higher on the […]

Victor Adair Blog - With the NAZ down ~12% since the July 11 record highs, do we bounce or keep falling? The NAZ closed lower for four consecutive weeks and closed this week at 18500 (which may be an essential support level), the lowest close since May 14. Perspective: At the July 11 highs, the NAZ was up ~20X from […]

Victor Adair Blog - Reversion to the mean continues across key markets Big-cap tech stocks fuelled a ~50% rally in the NAZ (~39% in the S&P) from October to July; their recent weakness contributed to the NAZ falling ~10% (S&P ~5%) from record highs. The MAG7 market cap is down ~$2 trillion (~12%) since July 10.   The Russell 2000 […]

Victor Adair Blog - Risk assets had a key turn date When several markets reverse course on or around the same date, I define that as a Key Turn Date (KTD). It signals a (profound) change in market sentiment/psychology/positioning.   My favourite barometer of risk sentiment is the S&P 500 Index. S&P futures (and the cash market) closed at a record […]

Victor Adair Blog - Do you believe in mean regression? The NAZ is up ~50% from last October’s lows, 100% from the 2022 lows, and >200% from the 2020 lows. It’s up ~20X from the 2009 lows. At what point does mean reversion kick in, or does that never happen? The S&P has closed higher for 11 of the past […]

Victor Adair Blog - Big-cap tech leaves the rest of the market behind The NAZ closed green on each of the four days markets were open this week, once again powered by Big-cap tech. It is up ~21% YTD. The Russell 2000 closed lower this week and is slightly lower YTD. The DJIA, which includes AMZN, MSFT and AAPL, is […]

Victor Adair Blog - The bond market had a bad Friday This week, price action across asset classes was “mid-summer quiet” ahead of Thursday’s Presidential debate and Friday morning’s PCE report. There were no dramatic market moves immediately following the debate, and the PCE data early Friday was pretty much as expected, perhaps even a shade “benign” in that […]

Victor Adair Blog - NVDA goes to the top of the market cap leaderboard The total market cap of NVDA, MSFT, and AAPL is now over $10 trillion. NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, and META collectively are up ~45% YTD, representing ~25% of the S&P market cap and ~60% of S&P YTD gains (NVDA alone accounts for ~35% of the […]

Victor Adair Blog - Check your old-school assumptions at the door Market sentiment has been oscillating between believing that “higher for longer” is 1) dead or 2) will be indefinitely sustained. The oscillation frequency has shrunk from months (during the October to February period) to days (since mid-April), and this week, sentiment swung from pillar to post between Monday and […]

Victor Adair Blog - Let the cuts begin The Bank of Canada may announce a 25bps cut (from 5.25%) on Wednesday (markets are pricing a 75% chance), and the ECB is expected to announce a 25bps cut (from 4.50%) on Thursday. The Fed is not likely to cut rates at its June 12 meeting.   The net speculative short positioning in Canadian dollar futures is […]

Victor Adair Blog - Divergence: while NVDA soared on Thursday, all 30 stocks in the DJIA closed lower on the day (for the first time in 2024) NVDA’s quarterly report on Wednesday was expected to be good. Still, the possibility of it being “less bullish than expected” likely sidelined many bullish traders ahead of the release date because it […]

Victor Adair Blog - Gold and copper hit all-time highs this week; silver rallied to 12-year highs June Comex gold futures closed at an all-time high on Friday at ~$2,420, up ~$80 from Monday’s low. The Gold Miners ETF closed at a two-year high. Comex copper rallied above $5 a pound to close higher than the previous record set in March 2022 […]

Victor Adair Blog - Despite a quiet, low VOL week, the leading stock indices continued to rally, with the European benchmark index closing at all-time highs. Last week was chockablock with data and event risk; price action was wickedly choppy, and stocks rose. This week was so quiet that you sometimes wondered if the markets were open – and […]

Victor Adair Blog - The dominant market theme YTD, “the Fed will stay higher for longer,” softened this week Price action across equity, interest rate and currency markets this week was buffeted by US economic and inflation data, concerns about Treasury and Fed policy decisions, currency intervention by the Japanese finance ministry, and concerns about critical corporate reports.   The net takeaway from […]

Victor Adair Blog - Is buying the Yen in anticipation of another “Plaza Accord” the Trade of the Year or just another attempt to catch a falling piano? The BoJ did nothing at their scheduled meeting this week, and the Yen collapsed to a new 34-year low against the USD and hit an All-Time low against the Euro (which has only been around for 26 years.) […]

Victor Adair Blog - Nasdaq had a lousy week and closed on its lows Benchmark global stock indices had their best-ever monthly close in March, but they all turned lower in April, with some of the former high-fliers getting hit the hardest.   Nasdaq closed Friday at a 2-month low, down ~8.5% from March highs. MSFT had its lowest close […]

Victor Adair Blog - LATE NEWS: Iran fires missiles into Israel. As much as the market worried that this could happen, there was hope that Iran would not retaliate at this scale. This will likely have a MAJOR impact on markets, especially if Israel and the US counterattack. Is the Fed wrong – again? For traders and investors, the […]

Victor Adair Blog - Gold closed at All-Time highs this week, up 29% from the 2023 lows made on October 6, the day before Hamas attacked Israel. Gold rallied over $150 in the last seven trading days, making new highs every day this week and closing at its highs on Friday, as anticipation grows Iran will respond to the attack on […]

Victor Adair Blog - We’re in no rush to cut interest rates Fed Chairman Jay Powell and Fed Governor Chris Waller reminded markets this week that they are in “no rush” to cut interest rates until they see clear evidence that inflation is returning to the Fed’s 2% target.   Equity markets (outside China) reflect the belief that Central Banks […]

Victor Adair Blog - Leading stock indices rallied to new All-Time Highs as Western Central Banks signalled interest rate cuts this year After closing lower for the past two weeks, the S&P and NAZ futures surged to new highs this week following dovish signals/cuts from the FOMC, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, and the Banco de Mexico. […]

Victor Adair Blog - Short and long-term interest rates rose every day this week. Are higher rates starting to matter? The S&P and the NAZ closed lower again this week – the first time those indices have seen back-to-back weekly declines since October. Yields on the 10-year Note hit a 16-year high (~5%) in October (as stock indices hit a 5-month […]
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