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Victor Adair

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Senior Vice President and Derivatives Portfolio Manager. Victor began trading financial markets over 45 years ago and has held a number of senior executive positions during his career as a commodity and stockbroker. Over the years he has provided considerable market analysis via radio and television and at financial conferences. His primary brokerage business is providing corporate accounts with risk management services using exchange traded derivatives. He actively trades currencies, interest rates, precious metals, stock indices and commodities for his own accounts.

Victor Adair Blog - Market Psychology had a classic “Risk Off” profile early this week as the “existential crisis” unfolding in Europe rallied the safe havens (USD, Swissy, Yen, Treasuries, German bunds) while the Euro, stocks, commodities and peripheral European bonds were dumped.  As the “existential crisis” diminished later in the week everything (with the exception of crude) reversed. EUR/USD hit […]

Victor Adair Blog - EUR/USD has dropped from over 1.25 to below 1.17 (~7%) in the last 9 weeks…closing this week at 7 month lows as political/economic developments in Italy herald a potentially existential crisis for Europe as “contagion” fears start to creep into the market. The EUR/USD 1.25 Inflection Point on Feb 16/18 came after the Euro had rallied against the USD for 15 […] Radio - Oil, OPEC, NAFTA, and Fracking

Victor Adair Blog - “It doesn’t matter until it matters and then it really matters!” was how I began my April 21 TD notes. My point was that rising American interest rates were REALLY starting to matter in the foreign exchange world…and that was going to drive the USD higher. The USD index is now at a 5 month high, up […]

Victor Adair Blog - President Trump will reapply sanctions against Iran. China has been told to reduce their trade surplus with America by $200 Billion within 2 years. Whether these are tactical bargaining positions or a line in the sand, the President is on a roll as the politically incorrect “disrupter” who is doing what he said he would do […]

Victor Adair Blog - Three Main Themes: My trading over the past few months has been in line with three main themes: 1) US interest rates had been too low for too long and were going up, probably more than the market was pricing and definitely more than interest rates in other countries, 2) the US Dollar got too low […]

Victor Adair Blog - The US Dollar surged higher again this week as American interest rates continued to rise. The 2 year US Treasury yield is at 10 year highs…the 10 year Treasury yield hit 7 year highs (3.04%) mid-week before dropping back below 3% by Friday. My headline last week, “It doesn’t matter until it matters…and then it really […] Radio - Gold and the US Dollar

Victor Adair Blog - It doesn’t matter until it  matters, and then it really matters! US interest rates are higher again this week…short rates are at 10 year highs (2.45% on the 2 year) while the 10 year Treasury yield is 2.94%…very close to 5 year highs. The market is expecting US interest rates to keep rising and after months […]

Victor Adair Blog - The Kenny Rogers school of risk management: “You’ve got know when to hold’em, know when to fold’em…know when to walk away, know when to run.” Song Here I started this week with all of my trades going against me. I was short CAD and NZD and long puts on Gold and WTI. I was stopped out of CAD […]

Victor Adair Blog - From the Desk of Victor Adair My short term trading: I started this week short the stock market via a bear spread in S+P options. I created the bear spread by first buying S+P puts on Mar 13 when the market rolled over and then the following week I sold OTM S+P puts to lock […] Radio - Where are the US and Canadian Dollars heading?

Victor Adair Blog - I started this week with short positions in CAD, Gold and the S+P. I took profits on the short CAD when it started to rally late Tuesday on news that the US was “softening” its NAFTA position on auto parts. I liquidated my gold position for a small loss on Wednesday when spot gold traded above $1325 […]

Victor Adair Blog - I started this week with a clean slate (I was skiing at Whistler last week and didn’t want any open positions) but I had a list of trades that I hoped to make if the opportunity presented itself. Top of my list was to get short CAD and I did that Monday when CAD rolled over after last week’s […]

Victor Adair Blog - The US stock market was a great barometer of risk appetite this week. The DJIA rallied to 3 week highs on Monday but began falling early Tuesday morning (Powell testimony) and was down nearly 1,600 points at Friday’s lows. The prospect of “trade wars” following Trump’s proposed steel and aluminum tariffs contributed to a high […] Radio - Gold, Oil, and the Bond Market

Victor Adair Blog - The DJIA topped out one month ago after a 45%+ rally since Trump’s election. The DJIA moved broadly sideways between 16,000 and 18,000 for most of 2014, 2015 and 2016 and then took off on a 14 month Run for the Roses parabolic burst to 26,618. Following that top the DJIA had a swift 11% […]

Victor Adair Blog - Risk appetite bounced back this week but sentiment seemed to be more defensive than aggressive (S+P futures volume was less than ½ of last week’s volume.) At last week’s lows the S+P 500 was down ~12% from its January highs…it closed this week down only ~5% from those highs. The US Dollar fell this week as […]

Victor Adair Blog - Risk Appetite had a Key Turn Date (KTD) the week of Jan 26/18 as the major American stock and commodity indices made important highs and then fell sharply while the US Dollar Index made an important low and then rallied sharply. (I define a KTD as a point in time when 2 or more major asset […] Radio - Is OPEC fighting a losing battle with technology?

Victor Adair Blog - From the Desk of Drew Zimmerman The USD was the talk of the town this week, if you were in Davos that is. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin gave a “weak dollar” statement that the market jumped on, pushing the USD index down to lows we haven’t seen since the end of 2014. Trump has since tried to […]

Victor Adair Blog - The key aspect of market psychology so far this year has been a willingness to aggressively take on risk. We have seen aggressive buying of stocks and aggressive selling of bonds and the US Dollar. The leading global stock market indices keep rising as risk appetite keeps rising and FOMO seems to be the driving force. Bank of America reports […]

Victor Adair Blog - Markets are in a speculative blow-off phase right now with stock markets around the world surging higher while the US Dollar has been falling like a stone. My gut instinct is to fade this price action…but my risk management override says wait…it could get even crazier! Stocks: The S+P 500 has closed higher every day this […]

Victor Adair Blog - From the Desk of Victor Adair The Most Crowded Trade In The World Raoul Pal posted a great essay in the December 28/17 Macro Insiders section of describing the lurking danger of what he calls The Giant Implicit Put. Here’s a couple of lines from his essay: Volatility  never  did pick up in  2017.  This  was  […]

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