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Victor Adair

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Victor Adair, author of The Trading Desk Notes, began trading penny mining shares while attending the University of Victoria in 1970. He worked in the mining business in Canada and the Western United States for the next several years and also founded a precious metals trading company in 1974. He became a commodity broker in 1977 and a stock broker in 1978. Between 1977 and his retirement from the brokerage business in 2020 Victor held a number of trading, analytical and senior management roles in Canada and the USA. Victor started writing market analysis in the late 1970’s and became a widely followed currency analyst in 1983. He started doing frequent media interviews in the early 1980’s and started speaking at financial conferences in the 1990’s. He actively trades his own accounts from The Trading Desk on Vancouver Island. His personal website is Radio - US Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Interest Rates, Gold

Victor Adair Blog - Stocks, commodities and gold surge higher, the US Dollar falls The S+P 500, the Dow Jones Industrials and Transports, and the TSE Index closed the week at All-Time Highs. The Transports (up ~145% since March 2020 lows) have closed higher for 14 consecutive weeks – for the first time in their 137 year history. Capital […]

Victor Adair Blog - Possible major inflection point: stocks and commodities peaking, US Dollar turning higher at the end of April The S+P 500 stock index hit All-Time Highs in February 2020 but tumbled ~35% within the next five weeks as the virus contagion shattered investor confidence. Central banks and governments launched unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus to counteract […]

Victor Adair Blog - Equities: choppy near All-Time Highs, US Dollar: weaker, commodities: smoking hot! The S+P 500 index chopped up and down within a narrow range this week after surging ~9% the previous four weeks. Implied volatility was also choppy day-to-day, but it was close to one-year lows at the end of the week – a sign of […]

Victor Adair Blog - Stock indices: Soar to new All-Time Highs, again. The DJIA rallied ~16,000 points (~90%) in thirteen months from the panic lows last March to today. There were two parts to the rally – the first 50% was driven by massive Central Bank stimulus even as the virus battered the real economy. The second 50%, beginning […] Radio - Is the US dollar pulling out of the doldrums?

Victor Adair Blog - Major stock indices at New All-Time Highs The DJIA and the S+P 500 closed at new All-Time Highs again this week, up ~10.5% from their March lows. This is the 8th time this year that these indices have closed the week at new All-Time Highs. Earnings season starts next week. The indices have been boosted […]

Victor Adair Blog - For the 7th time this year, the S+P 500 Index closed the week at new All-Time Highs. The vaccine-driven re-opening surge remains the primary market narrative with solid support from 1) another massive government spending proposal, 2) massive capital flows ($320 Billion into equity ETFs since the election,) 3) huge job creation in the USA (1.6 […]

Victor Adair Blog - As Good As It Gets? The S+P 500 share index had its best 12-month advance EVER from March 2020 to February 2021 on the back of the largest EVER liquidity injections from global central banks. The major stock market indices made marginally higher highs in mid-March and then turned lower. In last week’s TD Notes, […]

Victor Adair Blog - Peak Stimulus? Buy the rumour – sell the stimulus checks? Stocks and commodities lurched higher, and the USD tumbled when Powell made it clear that the Fed would remain ultra-dovish; 24 hours later, stocks and commodities were lower, the USD was higher. This may have been a MAJOR TURN week. Was that As Good As It […]

Victor Adair Blog - DJIA soars 2,200+ points from last week’s low to New All-Time Highs even as bond yields surge higher The US Treasury auctioned $255 Billion (!) of debt this week (including $38B 10-year bonds and $24B 30-year bonds), and the credit markets barely flinched – until Thursday night/Friday morning when 10-year yields surged to a 14 […]

Victor Adair Blog - Speculative excesses peaked in February and markets have been in a correction phase. Time for a bounce? The stock market rally from the March 2020 panic lows paused in September/October but then resumed with a vengeance following the November election and the Pfizer vaccine announcement.   Tech was the initial go-to favorite, especially BIG CAP […]

Victor Adair Blog - Interest rates surge higher: speculative bubbles pop. US Treasury 10-year bond yields hit a record low ~0.52% early last August (as gold hit a record high) and then trended higher for several months. This year, the trend accelerated and then surged higher, with the 10-year yield briefly touching 1.61% on Thursday following a dismal 7-year […]

Victor Adair Blog - Interest Rates Are Sharply Higher On Reflation/Inflation Concerns Copper is at a 10-year high and has doubled in the last 11 months. Half of those gains came since the November 3rd elections. Freeport-McMoRan is up ~600% from last year’s lows. WTI crude oil has jumped over 80% since the November elections. Lumber has quadrupled from last year’s lows, […]

February 17th, 2021 | Gold, US Dollar, Interest Rates Radio - Copper, Lithium, Crude Oil

Victor Adair Blog - North American Stock Indices Keep Rocking The major North American stock indices hit new All Time Highs again this week even as Old School valuation metrics continued to flash warning signs. It’s hard to know if buyers were motivated by optimism over vaccine programs, the coming re-opening boom, the wonders of centrally planned fiscal stimulus […]

Victor Adair Blog - Old School valuation metrics don’t matter these days, we’re trading mass psychology In 3 of the last 5 weeks the DJIA futures have had more than a 1,000 point high/low range. Last Friday the index closed at a 6 week low, opened down Sunday afternoon and then rallied ~1,600 points to this Friday’s high. Old […]

Victor Adair Blog - Did somebody ring a bell? An earthquake rumbled through the financial markets this week and sharpened everybody’s sense of risk. There’s been a growing concern about excessive speculation for the past few months but that was in anticipation of markets crashing – not ripping to the upside!   Good for you if you were on […]

Victor Adair Blog - Major US stock indices hit new highs on inauguration The major American stock indices hit All Time Highs this week when Joe Biden was inaugurated as the 46th POTUS. Since the Nov 1st Key Turn Date, just before the election, the DJIA and S+P have gained ~19%, the Nasdaq 100 ~23%, the Russell 2000 ~40%, while the […] Radio - Are we in the age of commodities?

Victor Adair Blog - The pro-risk trade is very extended / at risk of a correction My core trading idea for the past month or so has been that the pro-risk trade (long stocks, long commodities, short US Dollar) is very extended and is at risk of a correction. I have been watching for opportunities to fade pro-risk market […]

Victor Adair Blog - “In the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Benjamin Graham   Across the spectrum of traders and investors there would be a wide dispersion of definitions for “short run” and “long run” but for the purposes of my personal trading “short run” means a […]

Victor Adair Blog - Why do you believe what you believe? If you choose the trading life, you will have to deal with these existential questions, “Who do you chose to believe, why do you believe what you believe, how much of that is already priced in and what are you going to do when you’re wrong?”   In […]

Victor Adair Blog - The Major American stock indices hit new All-Time Highs again this week with quad-witching and the inclusion of Tesla in the S+P 500 index on Friday. The DJIA is up >4,000 points (15%) since the Oct 30 Key Turn Date (circled on today’s charts) when a number of different markets all reversed “on a dime” as market […]

Victor Adair Blog - Pro-risk Market Psychology drives stocks and commodities higher, US Dollar lower Market psychology has been very pro-risk the past 6 weeks, especially since the Pfizer vaccine announcement on November 9th created a real-world justification for “looking beyond” short term economic concerns to a much brighter post-virus future.   Major stock indices have rallied to new All Time […]
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