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Victor Adair

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Senior Vice President and Derivatives Portfolio Manager. Victor began trading financial markets over 45 years ago and has held a number of senior executive positions during his career as a commodity and stockbroker. Over the years he has provided considerable market analysis via radio and television and at financial conferences. His primary brokerage business is providing corporate accounts with risk management services using exchange traded derivatives. He actively trades currencies, interest rates, precious metals, stock indices and commodities for his own accounts.

Victor Adair Blog - Stocks, bonds, currencies, crude oil and metals were all rocked this week as sentiment swung dramatically from “risk off” to “risk on.” The benchmark American stock indices traded at ATHs during the low-volume Thanksgiving week…hit new ATHs Sunday afternoon as this week began…but then a flurry of trade headlines sparked a wave of selling that took […]

Victor Adair Blog - The S+P 500 index hit new ATHs again this week…closing higher 7 of the last 8 weeks…rising ~10% from the early October lows. YTD gains are ~25%. David Rosenberg reports that 95% of the total return YTD has come from P/E multiple expansion, with dividends accounting for 8% while actual earnings account for a negative […]

Victor Adair Blog - The major American stock indices hit new ATHs Tuesday but turned modestly lower as trade optimism faltered. Bullish momentum has been inspired by easy monetary policy, FOMO and TINA…with little regard for WHY monetary policy has been easy. Investors have been handsomely rewarded for buying dips. Option volatility and put/call ratios signify complacency…the CNN Fear/Greed index […]

Victor Adair Blog - The runaway bull market in major stock indices continued this week with lots of new ATHs (notably Ex China and EEM…and Trannies and Russell.) I’ve been writing here for the past month that “if” the major indices made new ATHs a lot of people would be amazed and some cautious money managers would be “forced” to […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Will Crude Oil follow stock market higher?

Victor Adair Blog - My best performing trades YTD have come from recognizing that September 3, 2019 was a HUGELY important inflection point across a number of KEY markets. The reversal in the interest rate markets on September 3rd was the epicenter of the inflection point…but the range of markets that reversed on or around that day is truly impressive. […]

Victor Adair Blog - The Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve both roiled markets Wednesday…even though their initial communications were exactly as expected. The BoC left interest rates unchanged but Stephen Poloz made it clear that given all the political and economic uncertainty in the world, especially outside Canada, that it wouldn’t take much for the Bank to […]

Victor Adair Blog - The S+P 500 index hit a new ATH today…up ~ 6% from Oct 3 lows…up ~11% from mid-summer lows…up ~29% from last December lows. We’re in the heart of quarterly earnings season…companies that beat are aggressively bid…companies that miss are clobbered. Markets are embracing risk…implied vol is back to mid-summer lows…even as global economic growth […]

Victor Adair Blog - Currency market trends often go WAY further than you can imagine…they develop a self-reinforcing momentum (which we used to call “Leads and Lags”) and then they turn on a dime and go the other way. I’ve been generally US Dollar bullish for years…but recently I’ve started buying other currencies against the USD…thinking it may be […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Crude Oil and Interest Rates

Victor Adair Blog -   This was a perfect week to be reminded that trading is not a game of perfect. I was long stocks and crude and short gold early in the week…got cold feet and bailed out with tiny losses just before those markets moved hard against me. I was happy to have played just-in-time defense. But later […]

Victor Adair Blog - The major US stock indices fell sharply (DJIA down 1,200) Tuesday through Thursday as weaker-than-expected PMIs provided more evidence that the economy is slowing and as political tempers flared in Washington. The stock indices bounced back hard Thursday/Friday, recovering ~55% of the earlier losses on anticipation of more cuts from the Fed and as the key […]

Victor Adair Blog - Political turmoil is having an out-sized impact on markets these days and it’s hard to not get sucked into trading on the latest political news flash or tweet. It’s not that the tweets and news flashes can’t move markets…they obviously do…but I want to trade the market not the tweet. For instance, I’ve been thinking that […]

Victor Adair Blog - The attack on the Saudi oil processing facilities caused WTI to jump $8 to ~$63 when markets opened Sunday afternoon…but within a couple of days WTI fell back ~$5 to ~$58. The price jump was attributed to a risk premium build, fears of more attacks and/or retaliation, talk of $100 oil, as well as to the […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Interest Rates and the Bond Market

Victor Adair Blog - We’ve seen dramatic price reversals across markets since the Labor Day weekend…especially in the bond market where yields had their biggest one-week jump since Trump’s election. Analysts may point to the softening of tensions between the USA and China, or to stronger-than-expected economic reports which dampened the “we’re-falling-into-a-recession” story but from my perspective the relentless […]

September 7th, 2019 | Trading Desk Notes – Sept 7th

Victor Adair Blog - The Canadian dollar up a cent this week trading at 76 cents after the Bank of Canada held rates steady on Wednesday and we posted an incredibly strong 81,100 gain in employment for  the month of August. This move higher in CAD brought it to the middle of the small 74 to 77 cent range it has […]

Victor Adair Blog - Going into the Labor Day weekend, after a very choppy August, and ahead of the “back to reality” moment that hits every year when trading resumes in September we have the US Dollar strong like Big Bull…the USDX is at 28 month highs and the St. Louis Fed Trade Weighted USD Index is at All […]

Victor Adair Blog - A trader’s job is to imagine how a market might be different…at some point in the future…from the way it is now. But before trading on his opinions about where the market may be going he needs to see signals that confirm his opinions. He also needs to be aware that his opinions may cause […]

Victor Adair Blog - Markets continue to aggressively reprice interest rates lower. There have been massive capital flows into bond funds, the US long bond has hit a record low yield and the sum of negative yield bonds continues to rise. Capital is seeking a safe haven not only because slowing global economies and rising recession risks are expected to […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - If you’re going to panic, panic early!

Victor Adair Blog - The market had a lot to digest this past week and thinner-than-normal mid-summer conditions may have exaggerated the moves…but it still feels like there’s a “sea-change” happening here that may be foreshadowing bigger moves to come. My definition of positioning risk: Being forced to cover…with increasing urgency…positions which used to look very good…before everything changed. Example: […]

Victor Adair Blog - Summer Doldrums??? Gold surging to a new 6 year high up >$50 in 3 days, Silver up 8% on the week, major US share indices hitting new All Time Highs with buybacks on pace for another record year even as China/US trade talks stall, Crude oil down 10% on the week on signs that US/Iran […]

July 17th, 2019 | Gold, Oil, Interest Rates

HoweStreet.com Radio - Canadian Dollar and US Dollar

Victor Adair Blog - Three weeks ago (June 21/19) I noted that the increasingly aggressive repricing of future interest rate expectations (soaring bond prices) was the “irresistible force” that had been impacting all markets since late last year. My guess was that the falling interest rate trend had reached an exponential “blow off” phase with the market pricing a […]
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