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Victor Adair

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Victor Adair, author of The Trading Desk Notes, began trading penny mining shares while attending the University of Victoria in 1970. He worked in the mining business in Canada and the Western United States for the next several years and also founded a precious metals trading company in 1974. He became a commodity broker in 1977 and a stock broker in 1978. Between 1977 and his retirement from the brokerage business in 2020 Victor held a number of trading, analytical and senior management roles in Canada and the USA. Victor started writing market analysis in the late 1970’s and became a widely followed currency analyst in 1983. He started doing frequent media interviews in the early 1980’s and started speaking at financial conferences in the 1990’s. He actively trades his own accounts from The Trading Desk on Vancouver Island. His personal website is

Victor Adair Blog - Interest rates surge higher: speculative bubbles pop. US Treasury 10-year bond yields hit a record low ~0.52% early last August (as gold hit a record high) and then trended higher for several months. This year, the trend accelerated and then surged higher, with the 10-year yield briefly touching 1.61% on Thursday following a dismal 7-year […]

Victor Adair Blog - Interest Rates Are Sharply Higher On Reflation/Inflation Concerns Copper is at a 10-year high and has doubled in the last 11 months. Half of those gains came since the November 3rd elections. Freeport-McMoRan is up ~600% from last year’s lows. WTI crude oil has jumped over 80% since the November elections. Lumber has quadrupled from last year’s lows, […]

February 17th, 2021 | Gold, US Dollar, Interest Rates Radio - Copper, Lithium, Crude Oil

Victor Adair Blog - North American Stock Indices Keep Rocking The major North American stock indices hit new All Time Highs again this week even as Old School valuation metrics continued to flash warning signs. It’s hard to know if buyers were motivated by optimism over vaccine programs, the coming re-opening boom, the wonders of centrally planned fiscal stimulus […]

Victor Adair Blog - Old School valuation metrics don’t matter these days, we’re trading mass psychology In 3 of the last 5 weeks the DJIA futures have had more than a 1,000 point high/low range. Last Friday the index closed at a 6 week low, opened down Sunday afternoon and then rallied ~1,600 points to this Friday’s high. Old […]

Victor Adair Blog - Did somebody ring a bell? An earthquake rumbled through the financial markets this week and sharpened everybody’s sense of risk. There’s been a growing concern about excessive speculation for the past few months but that was in anticipation of markets crashing – not ripping to the upside!   Good for you if you were on […]

Victor Adair Blog - Major US stock indices hit new highs on inauguration The major American stock indices hit All Time Highs this week when Joe Biden was inaugurated as the 46th POTUS. Since the Nov 1st Key Turn Date, just before the election, the DJIA and S+P have gained ~19%, the Nasdaq 100 ~23%, the Russell 2000 ~40%, while the […] Radio - Are we in the age of commodities?

Victor Adair Blog - The pro-risk trade is very extended / at risk of a correction My core trading idea for the past month or so has been that the pro-risk trade (long stocks, long commodities, short US Dollar) is very extended and is at risk of a correction. I have been watching for opportunities to fade pro-risk market […]

Victor Adair Blog - “In the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Benjamin Graham   Across the spectrum of traders and investors there would be a wide dispersion of definitions for “short run” and “long run” but for the purposes of my personal trading “short run” means a […]

Victor Adair Blog - Why do you believe what you believe? If you choose the trading life, you will have to deal with these existential questions, “Who do you chose to believe, why do you believe what you believe, how much of that is already priced in and what are you going to do when you’re wrong?”   In […]

Victor Adair Blog - The Major American stock indices hit new All-Time Highs again this week with quad-witching and the inclusion of Tesla in the S+P 500 index on Friday. The DJIA is up >4,000 points (15%) since the Oct 30 Key Turn Date (circled on today’s charts) when a number of different markets all reversed “on a dime” as market […]

Victor Adair Blog - Pro-risk Market Psychology drives stocks and commodities higher, US Dollar lower Market psychology has been very pro-risk the past 6 weeks, especially since the Pfizer vaccine announcement on November 9th created a real-world justification for “looking beyond” short term economic concerns to a much brighter post-virus future.   Major stock indices have rallied to new All Time […]

Victor Adair Blog - You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet Relentless bullish enthusiasm continues to drive the pro-risk Everything Rally. The leading American stock indices keep making new All-Time Highs (after record gains in November) as legions of market analysts tell investors to “look beyond” any evidence of current economic weakness to a post-virus demand boom in 2021 once vaccines have been […]

Victor Adair Blog - Market positioning, sentiment and psychology are strongly reinforcing consensus expectations. Caution is advised. Markets this week: MAJOR NORTH AMERICAN STOCK INDICES ARE AT ALL TIME HIGHS. COMMODITY INDICES ARE AT 2 ½ YEAR HIGHS. THE US DOLLAR INDEX IS AT A 2 ½ YEAR LOW. GOLD IS DOWN ALMOST $300 (14%) FROM ITS AUGUST HIGH […]

Victor Adair Blog - Mark Twain tells us that it ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so. We all make assumptions when we trade. For instance, we know that we don’t know “for sure” if a market will be up or down tomorrow but we definitely […] Radio - Interest Rates, Crude Oil, Vaccines

Victor Adair Blog - The Vaccine “Silver Bullet” The Pfizer vaccine news was released Monday just before 7 am New York time. The overnight Dow futures surged ~1,400 points within the next 2 hours to an All-Time High of “30,000” for a gain of ~4,000 points (15%) in only 7 trading days. As the psychological impact of a “silver bullet” vaccine spread throughout the market […]

Victor Adair Blog - Stock indices tumble and bounce back on the US election The DJIA dropped ~2,500 points (9%) from mid-October to last Friday’s low but recovered those losses in 4 days this week. Volatility jumped sharply when the indices fell but collapsed this week when stocks bounced back. I was short stock index futures as they tumbled […]

Victor Adair Blog - There was a very important Key Turn Date (KTD) at the beginning of September when several different market trends all REVERSED direction at the same time. Those reversals set up the market the trends of the past 2 months. (I’ve circled the KTD in all of today’s charts.)   My trading in September and October […]

Victor Adair Blog - You can never have enough on when you’re right.   I just closed out some “risk off” positions (short stocks, Euro and gold) that I’ve had on for most of the past 2 weeks. I caught some good moves, especially short stocks, and I decided it was time to take profits. It was one of […]

Victor Adair Blog - One of my basic risk management trading principles is to keep the time frame of my trading in sync with the time frame of my analysis. To do otherwise can easily lead to BIG losses.   For instance, if I buy gold because my “analysis” is that I think it could jump $10 today I […] Radio - What is happening with the US Dollar?

Victor Adair Blog - Two months ago gold was making new All Time Highs around $2050 as the US Dollar was hitting 28 month lows and the real interest rate on US Treasury bonds was hitting 40 year lows. But since then gold prices have fallen back ~$200 while the USD and real rates have drifted sideways.

Victor Adair Blog - What’s been driving the strong “Risk On” market psychology since late September? We think the market is not only (increasingly) pricing out Trump but is also pricing out a “contested election.” The market is pricing in more (maybe much more) stimulus…either because Trump “pulls out all the stops” and Mnuchin/Pelosi do a deal (which the Senate […]
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