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Victor Adair

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Senior Vice President and Derivatives Portfolio Manager. Victor began trading financial markets over 45 years ago and has held a number of senior executive positions during his career as a commodity and stockbroker. Over the years he has provided considerable market analysis via radio and television and at financial conferences. His primary brokerage business is providing corporate accounts with risk management services using exchange traded derivatives. He actively trades currencies, interest rates, precious metals, stock indices and commodities for his own accounts.

Victor Adair Blog - The US Dollar Index (USDX) had its worst month in a decade in July…falling >5% to a 2 year low. USDX has dropped >8% from mid-May when Macron/Merkel launched their plan to create a jointly guaranteed recovery fund for Europe…which launched a sizzling Euro rally on thoughts that this might be a major step towards […] Radio - “Risk On” Attitude Propelling Markets

Victor Adair Blog - We look for trading opportunities in exchange listed futures and options. Our time frame is a few days to a few weeks. We believe that net trading profits over time come more from risk management than from trade selection…but a good trade selection process is important. To that end we develop “fundamental” market views and then […]

Victor Adair Blog - You have to ask yourself, “What are we trading these days?” 50 million Americans have applied for first time jobless benefits since the  lockdowns began and the Nasdaq 100 has rallied >60% from the March lows to this week’s All Time Highs. For most of my trading life I’ve made a point of knowing when economic […]

Victor Adair Blog - Our base case has been that all of the central bank and government stimulus would not prevent pervasive global demand destruction as the virus continued to spread…that the stimulus inspired “risk on” trade in financial markets would “roll over” once the divergence between the real economy and the financial markets got too wide. However…as traders we […]

Victor Adair Blog - I trade futures and options for my own account. My initial time horizon for a trade is usually a few days to a few weeks. Sometimes, if my view of the market is working I will maintain a position for months. I believe net profits over time come from disciplined risk management…not from having a great […]

Victor Adair Blog - Markets currently seem to be highly correlated into a simple “risk on / risk off” dichotomy…with the emini S+P futures leading the way while other markets follow. If the spuz is bid then WTI catches a bid while the USD and bonds are offered…and vice versa. The tricky thing with trading off inter-market correlations is […]

Victor Adair Blog - I thought the stock market’s huge rally off the March lows was a bear market rally because of the huge dis-connect with the real economy. I thought demand destruction was so powerful that stimulus from the Fed and the government was only going to keep the economy from falling into a depression…not turn it around. I […]

Victor Adair Blog - A Key Turn Date occurs when a number of different markets all reverse direction at the same  time…giving us a very valuable window into market psychology. At the risk of being scorned by psychologists I’d say that a KTD may be an example of synchronicity in the markets…when “meaningful coincidences” are a  manifestation of some […] Radio - 80/20 rule of Trading

Victor Adair Blog - My bias is that the 20% rally in the S+P from October 2019 to February 2020 may have been a “blow-off top” to a 10 year bull market. (I see Tesla running from ~$250 to ~$950 as the poster child for the Irrational Exuberance of that time.) The virus set off a “tumbling dominos” decline from the […]

Victor Adair Blog - I’ve been trading small size with tight stops. Choppy price action keeps my conviction level low. My bias is that demand destruction has been incredible…with a good chance that it gets worse before it gets better…so I think this is bear market rally…but I have to respect the fact that risk assets won’t break down. This […]

Victor Adair Blog - The Nasdaq 100 surged 9% into Monday’s highs on the back of 6 consecutive up days…but then it wobbled a bit…maybe due to rising US/China tensions…maybe due to fatigue after “too far / too fast”…maybe due to the wake up calls from Druckenmiller and others…or maybe it was just the “pause that refreshes” and the […]

Victor Adair Blog - Stock market indices rallied this week…lead by the Nasdaq index which is now up ~4% YTD after being down ~25% YTD at the March lows…volatility metrics keep falling and the open question is, “How will the “re-opening” play out?”     Stock market investors seem to be anticipating that the “re-opening” will play out just fine. Massive […] Radio - The investment rules of the past 30 years don’t work anymore

Victor Adair Blog - Overextended markets are especially vulnerable to exogenous shocks. The stock market was especially vulnerable to the virus shock in February 2020 after a 45% rally off the Christmas 2018 lows to All Time Highs…with half those gains coming in just the last 5 months as millions of new  “commission free” retail accounts piled into the market […]

Victor Adair Blog - Massive monetary and fiscal stimulus in March and April will “counter” the deflationary surge to some extent…but it’s not a one-for-one “offset”…the deflationary impulse will be sustained…will be pervasive and enduring. For the past 20 years we’ve been trained to believe that stimulus can “turn things around”…so equity speculators have been BTD lately…but bonds, commodities […]

Victor Adair Blog - Nasdaq 100 futures went green YTD this week…up ~35% from their March 23rd “max panic” lows…while the Russell 2000 is still down ~25% YTD even though it rallied ~30% from its March lows. This is a classic inter-market relationship…tech stocks (and especially the Big Names) have blown away small caps since the “V” shaped recovery began […]

Victor Adair Blog - It’s all about the Fed. If you wonder why we’re seeing such a HUGE divergence the past 3 weeks between the economy and where investor psychology has taken the market…just remember…the Fed said they would do whatever it takes…did you think they were bluffing? They were back in this morning with another $2 Trillion program to […] Radio - Were Market Lows in March Best Time Ever to Buy?

Victor Adair Blog - Has the stock market bottomed? I don’t know…but I know why you’re asking. But…but the major indices fell so far so fast…they threw the baby out with the bathwater. This has got to be a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity!  Maybe. Markets were over-leveraged / priced for perfection in February and then the virus came along and set the dominos […]

Victor Adair Blog - When I get a trade idea my first question is, “How much of this idea is already in the market?” For instance, if I consider that the “virus news” could get worse next week I ask myself, “To what degree have the people who move markets already taken this idea into account? To what degree does […]

Victor Adair Blog - Leverage is being punished these days…as recently as last month it was being celebrated. During a decade of low interest rates and easy money folks levered up and reached for yield. That worked out great so they did more…but apparently they overdid it…so now the “liquidation” phase has kicked in and the talk is of counterparty […]

Victor Adair Blog - Volatility surged higher across markets this week…prices changed with astonishing speed…bid/offer spreads were ridiculous…credit spreads widened with a vengeance and depth-of-markets got scary thin. Global stock market cap tumbled >$16 Trillion in 3 weeks…more than China’s annual GDP.   The US Dollar soared this week as stock markets tumbled. The CRB commodity index fell to a […] Radio - Where do markets go from here?
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