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Victor Adair

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Senior Vice President and Derivatives Portfolio Manager. Victor began trading financial markets over 45 years ago and has held a number of senior executive positions during his career as a commodity and stockbroker. Over the years he has provided considerable market analysis via radio and television and at financial conferences. His primary brokerage business is providing corporate accounts with risk management services using exchange traded derivatives. He actively trades currencies, interest rates, precious metals, stock indices and commodities for his own accounts.

Victor Adair Blog - The irresistible force that moved all markets the past couple of months has been the increasingly aggressive repricing of future interest rate expectations. With the market now pricing a 90% chance of 75 bps of cuts from the Fed over the next 6 months…with a good chance of 50bps in July alone…I believe the exponential […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Is the Canadian Dollar ready to shine?

Victor Adair Blog - The US Dollar surged higher this week…after “backing off” the last 3 weeks. All of the major Eurozone currencies plus CAD, AUD and NZD tumbled with AUD and NZD now near multi-year lows. The GBP was especially hard hit as it looks like Boris (hard exit) Johnson will become the new PM. It was interesting […]

Victor Adair Blog - US interest rates have dropped like a stone since last November…with the rate of decline dramatically accelerating the last 4 weeks. The bond market has rallied hard as investors have done a HUGE “180” in terms of their interest rate expectations…have increasingly anticipated an economic slowdown…rate cuts from the Fed…and as capital has sought “safety” […]

Victor Adair Blog - Stocks, crude and bond yields fell in May…the USD inched higher. The S+P 500 hit a 2 ½ month low this week…down ~7% from All Time Highs reached May 1st…giving back ~1/3rd of the rally from the December lows…but still up ~10% YTD.  Bullish sentiment was near 90% (greed) at the May highs and is […]

Victor Adair Blog - Global financial markets were driven more by fear than by greed this week…but there was no real panic…well maybe a little in the energy markets…with WTI tumbling ~13% in 3 days…but the S+P 500 Index is only down ~5% from its May 1st ATH and is still up ~20% from its December lows. Equity trading volumes […]

Victor Adair Blog - The US Dollar Index closed higher every day this week…the Chinese RMB and the Korean Won continued to tumble…the British Pound closed lower for 10 consecutive days…falling ~4% on endless Brexit uncertainty.   The DJIA futures contract tumbled to a 3 month low on Monday…trade wars and Iranian tensions…but bounced back the rest of the […]

Victor Adair Blog - The S+P 500 stock index fell hard this week…after closing at all-time highs last week…as sentiment about progress on the China/USA trade talks swung from coming-along-ok to total-breakdown. The market was ripe for a hit given bullish sentiment on the major stock indices had at been at extreme levels the past couple of weeks…and immediately […]

Victor Adair Blog - The US Dollar surged higher against virtually all other currencies this week with the US Dollar Index (USDX) hitting its best level since May 2017. Last week I wrote that the USDX was setting up to surge through the upper boundary (around 98) of a bullish rising wedge pattern and could make a run at the […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - US Dollar and Canadian Dollar

Victor Adair Blog - The US Dollar may be setting up to surge sharply higher.  The US Dollar Index (USDX) has been trending higher for the past year…a breakout above the recent highs around the 98 level could set up a challenge of the 14 year highs around 103 made over 2 years ago. The Swiss Franc closed at a […]

Victor Adair Blog - Is it the middle of April or the middle of August? The weekly trading volume of shares on the US indices and the number of futures contracts that traded this week was the lowest since last summer and among the lowest weekly levels of the past several years. This low volume has reduced price volatility with […]

Victor Adair Blog - “Politics” is increasingly on a collision course with Central Banks…and  that may be become the “new” most important driver of world markets. On July 7/18 I wrote:  Politics has replaced Central Banks as the most important driver of world markets according to Christopher Wood, financial analyst with CLSA, and I agree. It seems that for […]

Victor Adair Blog - The 4 month trend to lower interest rates accelerated last week and again this week…super-charged by a more-dovish-than-expected Fed with markets now pricing in a good chance that the Fed will CUT interest rates this year. There is now ~US$ 11 Trillion worth of Sovereign debt around the world trading at a negative yield.   The […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Canadian Dollar vs. US Dollar

Victor Adair Blog - As Good As It Gets? The Fed was even-more-dovish-than-expected Wednesday…signaling that they would not raise interest rates again this year and that they would slow their balance sheet runoff in May…then stop it in September. Stocks, bonds and gold jumped on the news while the US Dollar tumbled. But then things began to change and volatility ramped […]

Victor Adair Blog - The key global bellwether for market risk sentiment the past few months has been the S+P 500 stock index and it has rallied ~20% from its December 2018 lows as Central Banks around the world signal a dramatic policy shift in response to the global economic slowdown. The S+P 500 is on track for its best Q1 performance […]

Victor Adair Blog - The DJIA fell ~1,000 points from last week’s high to this week’s low as sentiment turned “risk off” after a 10 week rally took the DJIA up ~4,500 points from its Christmas lows. My thinking has been that the slowing global economy would sooner or later cause the stock market rally to falter…even though the rally […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Cracks Appearing in Some Key Market Sectors

Victor Adair Blog - David Rosenberg said it all in one sentence this morning: “The (economic) data flow globally continues to weaken but the markets don’t really seem to care much, knowing that central banks have their backs.” I’ve been thinking that markets would start to care…that the increasing tide of weak economic data points would slow down / reverse […]

Victor Adair Blog - Slowing Global Growth concerns have been hitting some markets more than others…German bond yields, for instance, have been falling steadily since early October…they are now nearing their historic lows made in the Brexit summer of 2016…while US equity markets, crude oil, copper and the commodity currencies have rallied from their oversold Christmas lows on the “Fed […]

Victor Adair Blog - The major global stock indices closed on their highs last week…but sentiment soured over the long weekend on a deluge of “economic-growth-is-slowing-everywhere” stories that took the markets down Tuesday and Wednesday with the defining moment the mid-week WSJ headline, “China Risks A Very Hard Landing.”  Markets steadied Thursday (indications of more stimulus in China and maybe even […]

Victor Adair Blog - The major American stock market indices have been the best bellwether for “risk on” market sentiment…since the extreme Christmas lows the DJIA has closed higher 15 of 17 trading days…closed higher for 4 consecutive weeks…rallied >3,000 points…and has recovered ~60% of the plunge from the October All Time Highs to the Christmas lows.   The […]

Victor Adair Blog - The leading US stock indices fell ~20% from early October All Time Highs to the Christmas lows (Dow down ~5,000 pts) but have bounced back about 8% (Dow up ~1,750 pts) as of yesterday’s close. Daily price action has been wild and choppy with 500+ point swings in the Dow seemingly routine. Implied vol levels on […]

December 29th, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – Dec 29th

Victor Adair Blog - The Big Story for 2018 was the “topping out” of the global Central Bank accommodation that had buoyed asset markets around the world for nearly a decade. The Fed took the lead in the swing from easier to tighter monetary policy by raising interest rates and starting to run down their balance sheet. Asset markets took […]
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