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Victor Adair

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Victor Adair, author of The Trading Desk Notes, began trading penny mining shares while attending the University of Victoria in 1970. He worked in the mining business in Canada and the Western United States for the next several years and also founded a precious metals trading company in 1974. He became a commodity broker in 1977 and a stock broker in 1978. Between 1977 and his retirement from the brokerage business in 2020 Victor held a number of trading, analytical and senior management roles in Canada and the USA. Victor started writing market analysis in the late 1970’s and became a widely followed currency analyst in 1983. He started doing frequent media interviews in the early 1980’s and started speaking at financial conferences in the 1990’s. He actively trades his own accounts from The Trading Desk on Vancouver Island. His personal website is www.VictorAdair.ca.

Victor Adair Blog - Two months ago gold was making new All Time Highs around $2050 as the US Dollar was hitting 28 month lows and the real interest rate on US Treasury bonds was hitting 40 year lows. But since then gold prices have fallen back ~$200 while the USD and real rates have drifted sideways.

Victor Adair Blog - What’s been driving the strong “Risk On” market psychology since late September? We think the market is not only (increasingly) pricing out Trump but is also pricing out a “contested election.” The market is pricing in more (maybe much more) stimulus…either because Trump “pulls out all the stops” and Mnuchin/Pelosi do a deal (which the Senate […]

Victor Adair Blog - Successful trading means positioning for what you think will happen…not for what you hope will happen. When it comes to analyzing the market impact of political developments we therefore focus on what we think will happen rather than on what we wish would happen. We think the Trump/Biden “debate” probably hardened Wall Street’s (previously held) […]

Victor Adair Blog - Equity markets were driven sharply higher this summer and the US Dollar was driven to 2 year lows by waves of self-reinforcing “risk on” market psychology…but that changed Big Time at the beginning of September. We’re calling the early September reversals a Key Turn Date (KTD) because a number of markets reversed course at/around the same […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Why currency trading is a beauty contest

Victor Adair Blog - Massive stimulus from governments and Central Banks created a powerful “risk on” market psychology that drove equities and commodities higher and the USD lower over the past few months. We think this “risk on” market psychology in the process of reversing and we’ve been trading accordingly. Mega cap tech had a spectacular run in this “risk […]

Victor Adair Blog - The big drivers of market psychology year-to-date have been, 1) the virus (and its anticipated knock on effects) followed by, 2) massive stimulus from Central Banks and governments. The virus psychology drove equities and commodities down hard…while driving bonds and the USD higher…whereas the stimulus has had the reverse effect on equities, commodities and the USD. […]

Victor Adair Blog - The Spuz and Nasdaq 100 raced to All Time Highs early this week…on surging volatility…as word circulated that a whale (apparently Softbank) was buying billions worth of call options…it wasn’t just the Retail Army trading in their pajamas. The Put/Call ratio plunged to new lows…the CNN Fear/Greed index hit full-on greed…and then the fever broke […]

Victor Adair Blog - Since the February All Time Highs we’ve had the shortest bear market ever…followed by the fastest recovery to a new record high in over 80 years. We’re very lightly positioned at the end of the week…thinking that September may bring some serious reversals across markets. Don’t be short volatility!   The Nasdaq 100 has rallied […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Is there more to a higher Canadian dollar than just a weak US dollar?

Victor Adair Blog - The news that “Buffet Buys Barrick Shares” spurred gold to rally more than $70 from last week’s close to Tuesday’s highs…the US Dollar Index falling to new 2 year lows also buoyed gold. We shorted gold on that rally and bought the US Dollar against the Euro currency.   We covered a short gold position last […]

Victor Adair Blog - Question: How many times have we seen markets get “silly” during the “dog days” of August…only to get hit with “reality” immediately after the Labor Day weekend? Answer: More than enough times to make us wonder what qualifies for “silly” these days…knowing full well that “silly” is usually hiding in plain sight…and the clues (at […]

Victor Adair Blog - On June 20, 2020 we wrote, “Markets currently seem to be highly correlated into a simple “risk on / risk off” dichotomy…with the emini S+P futures leading the way while other markets follow.” Some people refer to it as, “All One Market,” and from a macro perspective it’s been a “risk on” market since mid-June as: […]

Victor Adair Blog - The US Dollar Index (USDX) had its worst month in a decade in July…falling >5% to a 2 year low. USDX has dropped >8% from mid-May when Macron/Merkel launched their plan to create a jointly guaranteed recovery fund for Europe…which launched a sizzling Euro rally on thoughts that this might be a major step towards […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - “Risk On” Attitude Propelling Markets

Victor Adair Blog - We look for trading opportunities in exchange listed futures and options. Our time frame is a few days to a few weeks. We believe that net trading profits over time come more from risk management than from trade selection…but a good trade selection process is important. To that end we develop “fundamental” market views and then […]

Victor Adair Blog - You have to ask yourself, “What are we trading these days?” 50 million Americans have applied for first time jobless benefits since the  lockdowns began and the Nasdaq 100 has rallied >60% from the March lows to this week’s All Time Highs. For most of my trading life I’ve made a point of knowing when economic […]

Victor Adair Blog - Our base case has been that all of the central bank and government stimulus would not prevent pervasive global demand destruction as the virus continued to spread…that the stimulus inspired “risk on” trade in financial markets would “roll over” once the divergence between the real economy and the financial markets got too wide. However…as traders we […]

Victor Adair Blog - I trade futures and options for my own account. My initial time horizon for a trade is usually a few days to a few weeks. Sometimes, if my view of the market is working I will maintain a position for months. I believe net profits over time come from disciplined risk management…not from having a great […]

Victor Adair Blog - Markets currently seem to be highly correlated into a simple “risk on / risk off” dichotomy…with the emini S+P futures leading the way while other markets follow. If the spuz is bid then WTI catches a bid while the USD and bonds are offered…and vice versa. The tricky thing with trading off inter-market correlations is […]

Victor Adair Blog - I thought the stock market’s huge rally off the March lows was a bear market rally because of the huge dis-connect with the real economy. I thought demand destruction was so powerful that stimulus from the Fed and the government was only going to keep the economy from falling into a depression…not turn it around. I […]

Victor Adair Blog - A Key Turn Date occurs when a number of different markets all reverse direction at the same  time…giving us a very valuable window into market psychology. At the risk of being scorned by psychologists I’d say that a KTD may be an example of synchronicity in the markets…when “meaningful coincidences” are a  manifestation of some […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - 80/20 rule of Trading

Victor Adair Blog - My bias is that the 20% rally in the S+P from October 2019 to February 2020 may have been a “blow-off top” to a 10 year bull market. (I see Tesla running from ~$250 to ~$950 as the poster child for the Irrational Exuberance of that time.) The virus set off a “tumbling dominos” decline from the […]

Victor Adair Blog - I’ve been trading small size with tight stops. Choppy price action keeps my conviction level low. My bias is that demand destruction has been incredible…with a good chance that it gets worse before it gets better…so I think this is bear market rally…but I have to respect the fact that risk assets won’t break down. This […]
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