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Victor Adair

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Senior Vice President and Derivatives Portfolio Manager. Victor began trading financial markets over 45 years ago and has held a number of senior executive positions during his career as a commodity and stockbroker. Over the years he has provided considerable market analysis via radio and television and at financial conferences. His primary brokerage business is providing corporate accounts with risk management services using exchange traded derivatives. He actively trades currencies, interest rates, precious metals, stock indices and commodities for his own accounts.

Victor Adair Blog - Stock markets around the world tumbled this week. The DJIA touched new All Time Highs last week (Oct 3) but was down over 2000 points at this week’s lows. In just a few days the DJIA gave back all of the gains made since July. Trading volumes on the week were the largest since the DJIA […]

Victor Adair Blog - Interest rates surged higher this week with nominal and real yields on the US 10 year treasury hitting 7 year highs. Bond prices tumbled, the US Dollar (USD) rallied and global stock markets fell as a “shakeout” hit speculative excesses across markets. Market sentiment quickly turned from “risk on” to “risk off.” My trading accounts are currently […]

September 22nd, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – Sept 22

Victor Adair Blog - “Risk On” is the prevailing market mood and it’s been showing up everywhere: Global stock markets have been rallying since their early September lows. The leading American indices (S&P, DJIA, DJT) have made new All Time Highs, the Euro Stoxx index is up ~5% , the Nikkei is up ~7%, and even the EM stock indices have […]

September 15th, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – Sept 15

Victor Adair Blog - Trade Wars with China: Bloomberg reported mid-day Friday that Trump had instructed aides to proceed with tariffs on about $200B more of Chinese products. Market reaction was surprisingly muted. US stocks fell back (a bit) and the US Dollar rallied (a bit) on the news. Trump’s instructions seem to run counter to Mnuchin’s comments earlier […]

September 12th, 2018 | Gold, Oil, and Interest Rates

HoweStreet.com Radio - US Dollar, Canadian Dollar, and the Australian Dollar

Victor Adair Blog - Emerging Markets, which have borrowed trillions of US Dollars,  have been in the spotlight with some EM currencies down hard. For the past few months I have referred to the weakness in 2nd and 3rd tier currencies as the “stealth strength” of the US Dollar. I think we are at the point in the cycle where capital flows […]

Victor Adair Blog - Contagion risk inspired a sharp swing to “risk off” across asset classes this week. The US Dollar Index (USDX) surged to 14 month highs while the “stealth strength” of the US Dollar against 2nd and 3rd tier currencies was spectacular. The Turkish Lira (TRY) has been weakening against the USD for the past 5 years but the rate of […]

Victor Adair Blog - Summer doldrums…low volume choppy price action with the occasional headline driven flurry of activity. I was away late last week for a family event, started this week flat, did a little in-and-out trading and ended the week flat. I’m expecting some serious market moves once we get into September so I’m watching several markets now […]

Victor Adair Blog - Trump “is not happy” with the Fed raising interest rates…claiming that rising rates hurt the American economy and cause the US Dollar to rise…that a rising US Dollar makes America less competitive. My good friend Dr. Martin Murenbeeld, (www.Murenbeeld.com ) has long argued that the best way to correct the huge American trade deficit is to drive […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Canada, NAFTA, Trump and Tariffs

Victor Adair Blog - My trading this week: I started the week flat…waiting for good risk/reward setups to develop. On Wednesday I shorted CAD when it rallied on the Bank of Canada interest rate increase, shorted WTI when it failed to rally on a huge American inventory draw down and shorted EUR as it reversed from Tuesday’s rally. WTI […]

Victor Adair Blog - What I’m doing: I started this week long CAD and AUD against the USD. I was expecting the USD to correct after strong gains the past couple of months. I covered my positions Friday after the employment reports as the USD fell to 3 week lows and CAD rallied nearly 2 cents from the 1 […]

Victor Adair Blog - Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz is giving a speech this afternoon (12:15pt) titled “Let Me Be Clear: From Transparency to Trust and Understanding” that will be scrutinized closely for any hints as to what the Bank of Canada will do with rates at its next meeting on July 11th. It will be so closely watched […]

Victor Adair Blog - What I’m doing: I took profits Thursday on my short NZD/USD position and bought AUD/USD looking for a short term correction in the USD rally. AUD looks really oversold on technical and sentiment indicators. I also bought YEN Thursday thinking it might rally for 2 reasons, 1) short term USD weakness and 2) it might catch a […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - The Jerome Powell Fed changes everything

Victor Adair Blog - Market Psychology had a classic “Risk Off” profile early this week as the “existential crisis” unfolding in Europe rallied the safe havens (USD, Swissy, Yen, Treasuries, German bunds) while the Euro, stocks, commodities and peripheral European bonds were dumped.  As the “existential crisis” diminished later in the week everything (with the exception of crude) reversed. EUR/USD hit […]

Victor Adair Blog - EUR/USD has dropped from over 1.25 to below 1.17 (~7%) in the last 9 weeks…closing this week at 7 month lows as political/economic developments in Italy herald a potentially existential crisis for Europe as “contagion” fears start to creep into the market. The EUR/USD 1.25 Inflection Point on Feb 16/18 came after the Euro had rallied against the USD for 15 […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Oil, OPEC, NAFTA, and Fracking

Victor Adair Blog - “It doesn’t matter until it matters and then it really matters!” was how I began my April 21 TD notes. My point was that rising American interest rates were REALLY starting to matter in the foreign exchange world…and that was going to drive the USD higher. The USD index is now at a 5 month high, up […]

Victor Adair Blog - President Trump will reapply sanctions against Iran. China has been told to reduce their trade surplus with America by $200 Billion within 2 years. Whether these are tactical bargaining positions or a line in the sand, the President is on a roll as the politically incorrect “disrupter” who is doing what he said he would do […]

Victor Adair Blog - Three Main Themes: My trading over the past few months has been in line with three main themes: 1) US interest rates had been too low for too long and were going up, probably more than the market was pricing and definitely more than interest rates in other countries, 2) the US Dollar got too low […]

Victor Adair Blog - The US Dollar surged higher again this week as American interest rates continued to rise. The 2 year US Treasury yield is at 10 year highs…the 10 year Treasury yield hit 7 year highs (3.04%) mid-week before dropping back below 3% by Friday. My headline last week, “It doesn’t matter until it matters…and then it really […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Gold and the US Dollar

Victor Adair Blog - It doesn’t matter until it  matters, and then it really matters! US interest rates are higher again this week…short rates are at 10 year highs (2.45% on the 2 year) while the 10 year Treasury yield is 2.94%…very close to 5 year highs. The market is expecting US interest rates to keep rising and after months […]

Victor Adair Blog - The Kenny Rogers school of risk management: “You’ve got know when to hold’em, know when to fold’em…know when to walk away, know when to run.” Song Here I started this week with all of my trades going against me. I was short CAD and NZD and long puts on Gold and WTI. I was stopped out of CAD […]
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