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Victor Adair

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Senior Vice President and Derivatives Portfolio Manager. Victor began trading financial markets over 45 years ago and has held a number of senior executive positions during his career as a commodity and stockbroker. Over the years he has provided considerable market analysis via radio and television and at financial conferences. His primary brokerage business is providing corporate accounts with risk management services using exchange traded derivatives. He actively trades currencies, interest rates, precious metals, stock indices and commodities for his own accounts.

HoweStreet.com Radio - US Dollar and Canadian Dollar

Victor Adair Blog - The US Dollar may be setting up to surge sharply higher.  The US Dollar Index (USDX) has been trending higher for the past year…a breakout above the recent highs around the 98 level could set up a challenge of the 14 year highs around 103 made over 2 years ago. The Swiss Franc closed at a […]

Victor Adair Blog - Is it the middle of April or the middle of August? The weekly trading volume of shares on the US indices and the number of futures contracts that traded this week was the lowest since last summer and among the lowest weekly levels of the past several years. This low volume has reduced price volatility with […]

Victor Adair Blog - “Politics” is increasingly on a collision course with Central Banks…and  that may be become the “new” most important driver of world markets. On July 7/18 I wrote:  Politics has replaced Central Banks as the most important driver of world markets according to Christopher Wood, financial analyst with CLSA, and I agree. It seems that for […]

Victor Adair Blog - The 4 month trend to lower interest rates accelerated last week and again this week…super-charged by a more-dovish-than-expected Fed with markets now pricing in a good chance that the Fed will CUT interest rates this year. There is now ~US$ 11 Trillion worth of Sovereign debt around the world trading at a negative yield.   The […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Canadian Dollar vs. US Dollar

Victor Adair Blog - As Good As It Gets? The Fed was even-more-dovish-than-expected Wednesday…signaling that they would not raise interest rates again this year and that they would slow their balance sheet runoff in May…then stop it in September. Stocks, bonds and gold jumped on the news while the US Dollar tumbled. But then things began to change and volatility ramped […]

Victor Adair Blog - The key global bellwether for market risk sentiment the past few months has been the S+P 500 stock index and it has rallied ~20% from its December 2018 lows as Central Banks around the world signal a dramatic policy shift in response to the global economic slowdown. The S+P 500 is on track for its best Q1 performance […]

Victor Adair Blog - The DJIA fell ~1,000 points from last week’s high to this week’s low as sentiment turned “risk off” after a 10 week rally took the DJIA up ~4,500 points from its Christmas lows. My thinking has been that the slowing global economy would sooner or later cause the stock market rally to falter…even though the rally […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Cracks Appearing in Some Key Market Sectors

Victor Adair Blog - David Rosenberg said it all in one sentence this morning: “The (economic) data flow globally continues to weaken but the markets don’t really seem to care much, knowing that central banks have their backs.” I’ve been thinking that markets would start to care…that the increasing tide of weak economic data points would slow down / reverse […]

Victor Adair Blog - Slowing Global Growth concerns have been hitting some markets more than others…German bond yields, for instance, have been falling steadily since early October…they are now nearing their historic lows made in the Brexit summer of 2016…while US equity markets, crude oil, copper and the commodity currencies have rallied from their oversold Christmas lows on the “Fed […]

Victor Adair Blog - The major global stock indices closed on their highs last week…but sentiment soured over the long weekend on a deluge of “economic-growth-is-slowing-everywhere” stories that took the markets down Tuesday and Wednesday with the defining moment the mid-week WSJ headline, “China Risks A Very Hard Landing.”  Markets steadied Thursday (indications of more stimulus in China and maybe even […]

Victor Adair Blog - The major American stock market indices have been the best bellwether for “risk on” market sentiment…since the extreme Christmas lows the DJIA has closed higher 15 of 17 trading days…closed higher for 4 consecutive weeks…rallied >3,000 points…and has recovered ~60% of the plunge from the October All Time Highs to the Christmas lows.   The […]

Victor Adair Blog - The leading US stock indices fell ~20% from early October All Time Highs to the Christmas lows (Dow down ~5,000 pts) but have bounced back about 8% (Dow up ~1,750 pts) as of yesterday’s close. Daily price action has been wild and choppy with 500+ point swings in the Dow seemingly routine. Implied vol levels on […]

December 29th, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – Dec 29th

Victor Adair Blog - The Big Story for 2018 was the “topping out” of the global Central Bank accommodation that had buoyed asset markets around the world for nearly a decade. The Fed took the lead in the swing from easier to tighter monetary policy by raising interest rates and starting to run down their balance sheet. Asset markets took […]

Victor Adair Blog - There have been 3 major market events since the beginning of October: 1) stock markets virtually everywhere have been hammered, 2) the US Dollar has been rising against nearly every other currency and, 3) crude oil has tumbled more than 30%. During that pivotal 1st week of October Fed Chair Powell essentially told the market that […]

Victor Adair Blog - The major US stock indices opened sharply higher this week (after closing higher every day last week) but within hours of the opening the indices turned tail and fell like a stone…taking out last week’s low by Thursday morning. That high speed tumble (Dow futures down >1,800 points in 4 days) was followed by a scorching […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Politics vs. Central Banks

Victor Adair Blog - Markets are bracing for a possible huge “gap” opening…up or down…Monday morning following the Trump/Xi dinner at the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires Saturday evening. I expect to see a tsunami of political/market analysis Sunday. The major US stock indices have closed higher every day this week…perhaps hoping that Trump and Xi will  “tone down” […]

Victor Adair Blog - WTI crude oil tumbled to it’s lowest price in over a year…closing lower for 7 consecutive weeks. On October 3rd WTI hit a 4 year high ~$77 as the market feared a supply shortage especially given the American sanctions on Iran. This week WTI traded below $51…a 33% tumble from the October highs as the market feared a supply […]

November 17th, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – Nov 17th

Victor Adair Blog - Bonds and gold rallied and the US Dollar dropped this week as Fed Chairman Powell and Vice Chairman Clarida both signaled that the Fed may be less aggressive raising interest rates next year than the market had expected.  They both saw signs of slowing global growth. The US Dollar Index had jumped to new 17 month highs […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - How Markets Will React to Conflicting Economic Policies

Victor Adair Blog - Stock market price action was an emotional rollercoaster this week with big intraday price swings. The DJIA fell ~2,500 points (9.5%) from All Time Highs in early October to Friday’s lows. Stock markets around the world were under pressure as they keyed off American markets which were “catching down” to the weakness many other markets had […]

Victor Adair Blog - The major American stock indices hit All Time Highs around the beginning of October and have fallen as much as 7-10% since. I’ve been anticipating a correction (if not more) in those indices for the past couple of months as other major stock indices around the world fell and as US interest rates kept rising. I […]
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