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Victor Adair

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Senior Vice President and Derivatives Portfolio Manager. Victor began trading financial markets over 45 years ago and has held a number of senior executive positions during his career as a commodity and stockbroker. Over the years he has provided considerable market analysis via radio and television and at financial conferences. His primary brokerage business is providing corporate accounts with risk management services using exchange traded derivatives. He actively trades currencies, interest rates, precious metals, stock indices and commodities for his own accounts.

Victor Adair Blog - When I get a trade idea my first question is, “How much of this idea is already in the market?” For instance, if I consider that the “virus news” could get worse next week I ask myself, “To what degree have the people who move markets already taken this idea into account? To what degree does […]

Victor Adair Blog - Leverage is being punished these days…as recently as last month it was being celebrated. During a decade of low interest rates and easy money folks levered up and reached for yield. That worked out great so they did more…but apparently they overdid it…so now the “liquidation” phase has kicked in and the talk is of counterparty […]

Victor Adair Blog - Volatility surged higher across markets this week…prices changed with astonishing speed…bid/offer spreads were ridiculous…credit spreads widened with a vengeance and depth-of-markets got scary thin. Global stock market cap tumbled >$16 Trillion in 3 weeks…more than China’s annual GDP.   The US Dollar soared this week as stock markets tumbled. The CRB commodity index fell to a […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Where do markets go from here?

Victor Adair Blog - At market extremes you are trading nothing but psychology. So…is it time to sell panic? Or is the hysteria just beginning?  What’s your time frame? What’s your pain threshold? Volatility has exploded as liquidity has vanished. Bid/offer spreads are wide but not deep. Credit spreads are widening. The 10 year UST yield has dropped from ~1.6% […]

Victor Adair Blog - The stock market surged to All Time Highs the first 2 weeks of February…ignoring red flags from the bond market, the US Dollar and gold…but the day of reckoning finally arrived and the market crashed with astonishing speed and determination. Waves of selling triggered more selling and prices tumbled like dominos.   Volatility ripped higher…a […]

Victor Adair Blog - Starting January 24th the S+P futures closed red for 3 consecutive Fridays…fearing bad virus headlines over the weekend…but this past Valentines Friday (ahead of a 3 day weekend) the S+P futures closed green…not exactly an “all clear” signal but at least “an indication” that the market was pricing less fear. That sanguine S+P pricing revealed more […]

Victor Adair Blog - Commodities have been hammered since the virus became front page news…but bonds, gold, the US Dollar and stocks have all rallied…which begs the question, “Are markets anticipating a global economic slowdown exacerbated by the virus…or are they looking past that and anticipating massive fiscal and monetary stimulus?” Fears of a dramatic fall in Chinese demand […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - US Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Interest Rates

Victor Adair Blog - Emotional reactions to Coronavirus headlines churned price action across markets the past 2 weeks. This week, in lieu of my usual Trading Desk Notes I’ve attached the Power Point – and my opening remarks – that I will be presenting at the World Outlook Financial Conference February 7th in Vancouver, British Columbia.  https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/world-outlook-conference-2020/  The theme of […]

Victor Adair Blog - Market psychology turned decisively “risk off” this week with many global stock indices hitting YTD lows…the “looming recession” idea is back in vogue as analysts factor in the knock on effects from the coronavirus hitting an already weak global economy.   Last August the major American stock indices broke down from ATH when the “looming recession” idea […]

Victor Adair Blog - The major North American stock indices hit ATHs this week…initially shrugging off virus concerns…but when the virus headlines became increasingly scary ahead of the weekend stocks and commodities fell while bonds, bullion, the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen rallied.   Given the tremendous run in stock indices over the past few months this week’s correction […]

Victor Adair Blog - The major stock indices continued their relentless rally this week…and I got myself into a frustrating trader’s dilemma. It’s funny now…and I’m sure any traders reading this will be thinking, “Yep…been there…done that,” but it sure wasn’t funny while it was happening! I’ve had a “bias” that stock indices were “stretched” and I’ve looked for opportunities […]

January 16th, 2020 | Where Does Gold Go From Here?

HoweStreet.com Radio - US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar

Victor Adair Blog - Dramatic market price action on Tuesday evening Jan 7/2020 created important Pivot points across a number of key markets…especially gold. Look at it this way…gold rallied ~$125 in 9 days leading up to and including Jan 7…it rallied ~$40 in the last 1 ½ hours to hit a 6 ½ year high at $1,613 (basis Feb […]

Victor Adair Blog - Can we “trust” price action during low-volume holiday markets? That’s a tricky question…my best answer is that low-volume holiday markets are usually less “valuable” than regular markets in terms of “validating” price action. Look at it the other way round…most traders believe that price action is much more significant if it is accompanied by HIGH volume. […]

Victor Adair Blog - The most important message from the financial markets in 2019 was, “Don’t Fight The Fed.” The 180 degree turn in Federal Reserve policy…the Powell Pivot…caused markets to realized that it was, once again, “All About The Central Banks.” In December 2018 the Fed raised interest rates and indicated that they expected to be raising rates in 2019…but […]

Victor Adair Blog - The benchmark North American stock indices keep printing new ATH…while complacency reigns even as the CNN Fear & Greed index is flashing extreme greed. Volatility is ultra-low across all markets, the put/call ratio is at a 5 year low and credit spreads are tight. People are reaching for yield and have no interest in buying downside […]

Victor Adair Blog - We saw very choppy short term price action this week in stocks, bonds, currencies, gold, and crude oil as markets were rocked by trade deal headlines, the UK vote, the impeachment process, the Fed and ECB meetings…not to mention the endless barrage of Trump tweets! The apparent “de-escalation” of the US/China trade war was seen as […]

December 11th, 2019 | Will Markets Continue to Rally?

HoweStreet.com Radio - Can the US Dollar remain strong?

Victor Adair Blog - Stocks, bonds, currencies, crude oil and metals were all rocked this week as sentiment swung dramatically from “risk off” to “risk on.” The benchmark American stock indices traded at ATHs during the low-volume Thanksgiving week…hit new ATHs Sunday afternoon as this week began…but then a flurry of trade headlines sparked a wave of selling that took […]

Victor Adair Blog - The S+P 500 index hit new ATHs again this week…closing higher 7 of the last 8 weeks…rising ~10% from the early October lows. YTD gains are ~25%. David Rosenberg reports that 95% of the total return YTD has come from P/E multiple expansion, with dividends accounting for 8% while actual earnings account for a negative […]

Victor Adair Blog - The major American stock indices hit new ATHs Tuesday but turned modestly lower as trade optimism faltered. Bullish momentum has been inspired by easy monetary policy, FOMO and TINA…with little regard for WHY monetary policy has been easy. Investors have been handsomely rewarded for buying dips. Option volatility and put/call ratios signify complacency…the CNN Fear/Greed index […]

Victor Adair Blog - The runaway bull market in major stock indices continued this week with lots of new ATHs (notably Ex China and EEM…and Trannies and Russell.) I’ve been writing here for the past month that “if” the major indices made new ATHs a lot of people would be amazed and some cautious money managers would be “forced” to […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Will Crude Oil follow stock market higher?
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