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Victor Adair

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Victor Adair, author of The Trading Desk Notes, began trading penny mining shares while attending the University of Victoria in 1970. He worked in the mining business in Canada and the Western United States for the next several years and also founded a precious metals trading company in 1974. He became a commodity broker in 1977 and a stock broker in 1978. Between 1977 and his retirement from the brokerage business in 2020 Victor held a number of trading, analytical and senior management roles in Canada and the USA. Victor started writing market analysis in the late 1970’s and became a widely followed currency analyst in 1983. He started doing frequent media interviews in the early 1980’s and started speaking at financial conferences in the 1990’s. He actively trades his own accounts from The Trading Desk on Vancouver Island. His personal website is www.VictorAdair.ca.

Victor Adair Blog - Check your old-school assumptions at the door Market sentiment has been oscillating between believing that “higher for longer” is 1) dead or 2) will be indefinitely sustained. The oscillation frequency has shrunk from months (during the October to February period) to days (since mid-April), and this week, sentiment swung from pillar to post between Monday and […]

Victor Adair Blog - Let the cuts begin The Bank of Canada may announce a 25bps cut (from 5.25%) on Wednesday (markets are pricing a 75% chance), and the ECB is expected to announce a 25bps cut (from 4.50%) on Thursday. The Fed is not likely to cut rates at its June 12 meeting.   The net speculative short positioning in Canadian dollar futures is […]

Victor Adair Blog - Divergence: while NVDA soared on Thursday, all 30 stocks in the DJIA closed lower on the day (for the first time in 2024) NVDA’s quarterly report on Wednesday was expected to be good. Still, the possibility of it being “less bullish than expected” likely sidelined many bullish traders ahead of the release date because it […]

Victor Adair Blog - Gold and copper hit all-time highs this week; silver rallied to 12-year highs June Comex gold futures closed at an all-time high on Friday at ~$2,420, up ~$80 from Monday’s low. The Gold Miners ETF closed at a two-year high. Comex copper rallied above $5 a pound to close higher than the previous record set in March 2022 […]

Victor Adair Blog - Despite a quiet, low VOL week, the leading stock indices continued to rally, with the European benchmark index closing at all-time highs. Last week was chockablock with data and event risk; price action was wickedly choppy, and stocks rose. This week was so quiet that you sometimes wondered if the markets were open – and […]

Victor Adair Blog - The dominant market theme YTD, “the Fed will stay higher for longer,” softened this week Price action across equity, interest rate and currency markets this week was buffeted by US economic and inflation data, concerns about Treasury and Fed policy decisions, currency intervention by the Japanese finance ministry, and concerns about critical corporate reports.   The net takeaway from […]

Victor Adair Blog - Is buying the Yen in anticipation of another “Plaza Accord” the Trade of the Year or just another attempt to catch a falling piano? The BoJ did nothing at their scheduled meeting this week, and the Yen collapsed to a new 34-year low against the USD and hit an All-Time low against the Euro (which has only been around for 26 years.) […]

Victor Adair Blog - Nasdaq had a lousy week and closed on its lows Benchmark global stock indices had their best-ever monthly close in March, but they all turned lower in April, with some of the former high-fliers getting hit the hardest.   Nasdaq closed Friday at a 2-month low, down ~8.5% from March highs. MSFT had its lowest close […]

Victor Adair Blog - LATE NEWS: Iran fires missiles into Israel. As much as the market worried that this could happen, there was hope that Iran would not retaliate at this scale. This will likely have a MAJOR impact on markets, especially if Israel and the US counterattack. Is the Fed wrong – again? For traders and investors, the […]

Victor Adair Blog - Gold closed at All-Time highs this week, up 29% from the 2023 lows made on October 6, the day before Hamas attacked Israel. Gold rallied over $150 in the last seven trading days, making new highs every day this week and closing at its highs on Friday, as anticipation grows Iran will respond to the attack on […]

Victor Adair Blog - We’re in no rush to cut interest rates Fed Chairman Jay Powell and Fed Governor Chris Waller reminded markets this week that they are in “no rush” to cut interest rates until they see clear evidence that inflation is returning to the Fed’s 2% target.   Equity markets (outside China) reflect the belief that Central Banks […]

Victor Adair Blog - Leading stock indices rallied to new All-Time Highs as Western Central Banks signalled interest rate cuts this year After closing lower for the past two weeks, the S&P and NAZ futures surged to new highs this week following dovish signals/cuts from the FOMC, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, and the Banco de Mexico. […]

Victor Adair Blog - Short and long-term interest rates rose every day this week. Are higher rates starting to matter? The S&P and the NAZ closed lower again this week – the first time those indices have seen back-to-back weekly declines since October. Yields on the 10-year Note hit a 16-year high (~5%) in October (as stock indices hit a 5-month […]

Victor Adair Blog - Wicked price action may signal a shift in sentiment and positioning NVDA gapped higher on Friday’s opening and reached new All-Time Highs (up ~105% YTD) in the first hour of trading. It then dropped and closed below Wednesday and Thursday levels, creating a Daily Key Reversal down. NVDA’s market cap fell >$300 billion from Friday’s highs to lows. […]

Victor Adair Blog - Key global stock indices surge to new highs; breadth at near record highs on “buy everything” sentiment The S&P hit new All-Time Highs again this week, up 16 of the last 18 weeks for a gain of ~1,000 points (25%) from the October 2023 lows. During this rally, the S&P market cap has increased ~$8 trillion, […]

Victor Adair Blog - The most important stock in the world NVDA market cap soared >$300 Billion on Thursday (day session and aftermarket) to >$2 Trillion. This was the largest ever one-day market cap gain by an individual stock. The increase was equivalent to over TWICE the market cap of RBC, the largest stock on the TSE.   The rally […]

Victor Adair Blog - Leading US stock indices lose upside momentum The DJIA, S&P and the NAZ made new All-Time Highs this week but closed lower on the weekly charts. NDVA continued to rally this week, up 53% YTD, up 224% in the last 12 months, and now has the 3rd largest market cap (after MSFT and AAPL) of all US […]

Victor Adair Blog - Stock indices continue to rally The DJIA is up ~6,500 points (~20%) from the October lows, closing higher for 14 of the last 15 weeks (a multi-decade record.) The Nasdaq 100 is up ~68% in 14 months since the January 2023 lows. NVDA has rallied ~$250 (52%) in six weeks from its January 2024 lows and is up […]

Victor Adair Blog - US stock indices are higher again this week, with the DJIA up ~6,000 points (18%) from its October lows The S&P, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and the VTI ETF have all closed higher for 12 of the last 13 weeks. The rally continues to be led by big-cap tech, with MSFT and AAPL both reaching a $3+ […]

Victor Adair Blog - NDVA, MFST and META surge to new all-time highs; various other stocks also rise NVDA is up ~20% since the end of 2023 with a current market cap of ~$1.5 Trillion, or roughly half that of AAPL and MSFT.   The powerful rally in Big Cap Tech took the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P to new all-time […]

Victor Adair Blog - The cash S&P 500 index closed green for 10 of the last 11 weeks, registering an All-Time High weekly close Stock market sentiment and positioning are very bullish. Capital has flowed to “quality” stocks and away from unprofitable or “meme” stocks YTD. MSFT closed this week at an All-Time High with a market cap of ~$2.89 Trillion […]

Victor Adair Blog - After closing higher for nine consecutive weeks and making new All-Time Highs, Nasdaq 100 futures took a “refreshing” pause to start the New Year The NAZ rallied ~60% in 2023, its best performance since the fabulous 1999 Dot.com days. (Veteran campaigners may remember that the NAZ rose an additional 30% by March 2000 but then […]

Victor Adair Blog - We’ve had a historic 2-month rally in stocks and bonds in anticipation of several interest rate cuts in 2024 due to falling inflation – what’s next? The leading stock indices (and many individual names) traded higher for nine consecutive weeks, with the DJIA and the NAZ 100 ending 2023 at All-Time Highs.   The DJIA rallied ~5,450 points (~17%) from […]

Victor Adair Blog - DJIA and NAZ hit All-Time Highs after closing higher for eight consecutive weeks Who would have thought, back in October, with stock market sentiment crushed under the weight of “higher for longer” and the 10-year Treasury yielding more than 5% (a 16-year high) that eight weeks later, the venerable DJIA would have rallied over 5,300 points […]

Victor Adair Blog - Powell kicked the Everything Rally into Overdrive! Markets were expecting “some” pushback from Jay, “We’re a long way from neutral” Powell after a sizzling 6-week stock market rally, but he waved the white flag instead, and the Everything Rally ripped higher!   The bullish rip took Dec 2024 SOFR futures to ~9630 at Thursday’s high, effectively pricing in […]
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