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Victor Adair

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Victor Adair, author of The Trading Desk Notes, began trading penny mining shares while attending the University of Victoria in 1970. He worked in the mining business in Canada and the Western United States for the next several years and also founded a precious metals trading company in 1974. He became a commodity broker in 1977 and a stock broker in 1978. Between 1977 and his retirement from the brokerage business in 2020 Victor held a number of trading, analytical and senior management roles in Canada and the USA. Victor started writing market analysis in the late 1970’s and became a widely followed currency analyst in 1983. He started doing frequent media interviews in the early 1980’s and started speaking at financial conferences in the 1990’s. He actively trades his own accounts from The Trading Desk on Vancouver Island. His personal website is

Victor Adair Blog - Here’s what I really think We’ve had an extraordinary run of bullish enthusiasm since the March 2020 Covid panic lows. The S+P has rallied ~120%. A tidal wave of new money has come into the equity markets, with more than half of that going into passive index-linked investments. A handful of (richly-valued) Big Cap Tech […] Radio - Gold, Crude Oil, US Dollar

Victor Adair Blog - Are you de-risking into yearend? Day-to-day and intra-day price action since Thanksgiving Friday has been very choppy. Big Cap Tech has been fading. Are Portfolio Managers de-risking before yearend to preserve stellar track records? Big Cap Tech fading? Big Cap Tech has been THE most significant part of YTD gains in the S+P and NAZ […]

Victor Adair Blog - Bullish enthusiasm came roaring back this week – the S+P registered an All-Time High close – the DJIA rallied >2,000 points from last week’s lows The S+P hit All-Time Highs Monday, November 22, but closed down on the day. Three sessions later, waves of heavy selling in illiquid conditions on Thanksgiving Friday caused the index […]

Victor Adair Blog - A vicious circle of aggressive selling, thin liquidity, volatility and fear Given the drama since Thanksgiving Friday, it’s hard to believe that the leading North American stock indices were at All-Time Highs Monday of last week. It’s also hard to believe that, with the DJIA, S+P, NAZ, TSE and VTI indices down only ~6% on […]

Victor Adair Blog - Risk Happens Fast The S+P 500 hit All-Time Highs on Monday’s opening – but closed 165 points (3.5%) lower by Friday’s close. The daily S+P futures volume on Friday was the highest since early October – and was probably the highest EVER for a Thanksgiving Friday. The DJIA closed at a 7-week low, down ~1,800 […]

Victor Adair Blog - A handful of BIG cap tech stocks make all the difference The DJIA and the small-cap indices closed lower for two consecutive weeks (the DJIA fell as much as 1,000 points from last week’s high to this week’s low) – but the Nasdaq and the S+P 500 indices hit new All-Time Highs this week. The […]

Victor Adair Blog - The hotter-than-expected US CPI report rocked the markets Wednesday morning Gold spiked nearly $50 within 90 minutes of the CPI report and ended the week ~$100 (6%) above last week’s lows. Speculators in the gold futures market were net long a modest-sized position (relative to their position the past few years) as of Oct 26. I expect […]

Victor Adair Blog - Stocks soar to New All-Time Highs The worries that caused the major stock indices to slump ~6% in September have been forgotten – bullish sentiment has returned BIG TIME, and the indices have surged to All-Time Highs with the DJIA and the S+P rising for the past five consecutive weeks. Since early October, the DJIA […]

Victor Adair Blog - Tesla soars – stock indices hit new All-Time Highs Tesla’s market cap was ~$1.14 Trillion at the end of October- up ~$340B for the month. $340B is more than the total market cap of 481 of the companies in the S+P 500. Massive buying of (very) short-dated call options helped accelerate this week’s rally following […]

Victor Adair Blog - New All-Time Highs for the leading stock indices – but “rotation” rules. The S+P and the DJIA came roaring back and hit new All-Time highs after that tiny 6% dip in September (capital flows show that retail and hedge funds Bought-The-Dip), but the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the small-cap Russell fell short of making new highs. […]

October 21st, 2021 | Bitcoin vs. Gold, Inflation Radio - China’s Economy, Debt Crisis and Evergrande

Victor Adair Blog - Commodity Indices surge to new 7-year highs Surging energy prices are driving the principle commodity indices to new seven-year highs. The energy-heavy Goldman Sachs index has risen for eight consecutive weeks – up 18% from the mid-August Key Turn Date – up ~170% from the 17-year lows in April 2020. European Natgas prices quadrupled from […]

Victor Adair Blog - Energy prices are smoking hot The Chart Of The Week is UK Natural Gas. Nearby futures hit All-Time highs in August – then quadrupled from there by early this week – only to fall in half by Friday (Putin indicated that Russia could increase supply.) New York Natural Gas nearby futures more than quadrupled from last year’s […]

Victor Adair Blog - Major stock indices drop to 10-week lows – then bounce The most significant broad market decline since Biden’s election (S+P and DJIA down ~6%, Nasdaq 100 down ~7.5%) happened right on schedule. For the previous 35 years, September (especially the 2nd half) has typically been the weakest month of the year – followed by the […]

Victor Adair Blog - Evergrande Monday The Dow Jones futures contract dropped >1,300 points from last Friday’s highs to Monday’s lows and then rallied back > 1,300 points to Thursday’s highs – a ~2,600 point round trip in five trading sessions. Here’s my take: The leading stock indices had rallied >100% from the March 2020 lows without so much as […] Radio - Gold, Oil, Uranium, USD, CAD, Interest Rates, China

Victor Adair Blog -   Stock indices ended a choppy week right on their lows The major American stock indices are down ~2.5% from their All-Time Highs, with the S+P closing Friday just a hair under the 50 DMA, for only the 3rd time since the Pfizer vaccine announcement on November 9, 2020. Is it time to Buy The […]

Victor Adair Blog - Stock indices trended lower all week to end the week right on their lows. Option Vol spiked higher In late August, my primary trading view was that the summer’s complacent, pro-risk market sentiment was due for a correction. “Everybody” was a buyer. Stock index option Vol was at the rock-bottom lows of the past few […]

Victor Adair Blog - Powell’s “Substantial Further Progress” – is not happening yet – and neither is the taper The combination of much weaker-than-expected employment and consumer confidence reports means that the Fed will delay the taper. Price action was dull all week – nobody wanted to strap on a major position given the risk that markets could react […]

Victor Adair Blog - Another week – another new All-Time High for the S+P, the Nasdaq and the TSE Jay Powell’s much anticipated Jackson Hole speech did nothing to cool the market’s enthusiasm – so the bounce back from last week’s lows continued with the S+P now up ~20% YTD, up ~105% from last year’s lows. For months, there […]

Victor Adair Blog - Being rich is no longer glorious in Xi’s China In the 1980s, under Deng Xiaoping, “To get rich is glorious” defined the zeitgeist in China as the country embraced capitalism with Chinese characteristics. Not so, these days, under Xi Jinping, who has been on the warpath against the rich and famous with rules and regulations […]

Victor Adair Blog - Choppy price action in mid-summer markets Gold and silver fell sharply Friday of last week (August 6th) as the US Dollar surged higher following the much-stronger-than-expected US employment report. But the real fireworks happened when markets opened in the Far East on Sunday afternoon, August 8th. Gold tumbled ~$85 from Friday’s closing levels, while silver […]

Victor Adair Blog - Sleepy summer market reacts to strong employment data The stronger-that-expected US employment report on Friday was the key event of the week – in that it strengthened the idea that the Fed’s required “substantial further progress” was in the process of being met. Therefore, the report pulled forward the timeline for the Fed to begin […]

Victor Adair Blog - Is the market plunge in China a Black Swan? American Big Tech has been pulling the broad American share indices higher; in China, Big Tech has been pulling the broad Chinese share indices lower. Chinese regulators have been clamping down (Big Time) on Big Tech for the past few months, and share prices have tumbled […]
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