- the source for market opinions


John Rubino

Guest's Website

John is author or co-author of five books, including of The Money Bubble, The Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit From It, Clean Money: Picking Winners in the Green-Tech Boom and How to Profit from the Coming Real Estate Bust. A former Wall Street analyst and featured columnist with, he currently writes for CFA Magazine.

Dollar - It’s getting harder to tell which approaching crisis requires attention and which can be safely ignored. Sometimes it helps to see the data laid out visually.   Section One: If the supply of money still matters … Inflation (as the government defines it) has tracked the per capita money supply pretty closely over the past […]

Dollar - One of the emerging trends in the almost-post-covid economy is companies suddenly having to pay way up to find new employees. Restaurants, truckers, even Uber and Lyft, are now struggling to track down and re-hire the people they and their competitors shed during the lockdown. It’s not going well: The Covid recovery labor shortage is […]

Dollar - On today’s Wall Street Journal home page, two stories appear side-by-side. One is about how a heretofore obscure, nearly-valueless cryptocurrency called dogecoin, originally created as a joke, has soared to the point of being consequential for large sections of the investing public. And it’s not unique: Dogecoin Is a Joke, but It’s No Laughing Matter […]

Dollar - The Fiat Currency Age is nothing if not repetitious. There are dozens of charts that illustrate how closely today’s financial bubble resembles its predecessors. But simple is better when expressing a hard truth, so let’s go with that old standby, margin debt. This is debt created when over-stimulated investors borrow against their stocks to buy […]

Dollar - Excerpt from Lawrence Lepard’s Equity Management Associates Q1 Report:  We believe we are in the early to middle stages of a worldwide sovereign debt bubble collapse. The “bubble” which exists today is in debt and the currencies which are backed and supported by this debt. This is a very big deal and does not happen […]

Dollar - If you think New York Times, Fox, and MSNBC reporters are pursuing “journalism” when they repeat CIA talking points or haunt online forums hoping to catch people using problematic words (and then whine when they’re criticized for being deep state mouthpieces or woke bullies), check out this video of Glenn Greenwald explaining how real reporters […]

Dollar - Before the pandemic, auto sales were booming, mostly because car loans were available to pretty much anyone with a driver’s license and a heartbeat. “Subprime” auto loans – which charge high interest rates and run for up to eight years (hence the nickname “car mortgage”) — accounted for about 20% of a $1 trillion+ market. […]

April 5th, 2021 | Paradise Lost

Dollar - So a single political party gains control of a lockdown-battered country desperate for any and all forms of government spending. Direct payments, loan forgiveness, infrastructure, all of these and more are not just possible, but popular. The president and his Congressional allies simply write the bills, pass them, and bask in the near-universal admiration of […]

Dollar - The mainstream press is comfortable with moderate inflation because it raises financial asset prices and allows the government to spend more money. But when inflation hits a rate that threatens the stock market, even the Wall Street Journal starts to fret: A Fed With No Fear of Inflation Should Scare Investors It has taken four […]

Dollar - One of the flaws in the revolutionary mindset is a tendency towards overconfidence. Combine absolute belief in a new idea with a couple of early wins and you get an absurd level of cockiness. This leads the would-be revolutionary to underestimate the challenges involved in getting from there to ultimate victory. Why? Because those early […]

Dollar - Once upon a time, if you wanted to be a journalist there were just a couple ways to go. You could start at a small-town paper as a glorified intern and learn the craft by covering local weddings and town council meetings, then move to a slightly bigger paper, and so on up the food […]

Dollar - So bonds are obviously a bubble. And stocks have never been this overvalued. US houses have never been this expensive. Cryptos have had the greatest run in financial history. And the global money supply is soaring while most fiat currencies more-or-less hold their official value, which is another way of defining a bubble. Guess that’s […]

Dollar - Fed Chair Jerome Powell just spooked the markets by predicting nt: Fed’s Powell says reopening could cause inflation to pick up temporarily Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday that he expects some inflationary pressures in the time ahead but they likely won’t be enough to spur the central bank to hike interest rates. “We […]

Dollar - Doug Noland is out with his latest Credit Bubble Bulletin, following a week in which some of the things he’s been warning about began to happen. Definitely read the whole thing (especially the exchange between Representative Warren Davidson and Fed Chair Jerome Powell). But in the meantime here’s a brief excerpt: Global bond markets have […]

Dollar - Last March, the financial markets were rocked by a disease that public health officials defined as a pandemic. Stocks and gold both tanked, and the locked-down economy went into free-fall. Here’s the Nasdaq … … and gold: This flash-crash was brutal but ultimately short-lived, as the world’s governments immediately stepped in with tens of trillions […]

Dollar - California and Texas were, until very recently, the two best US states. The former is the richest and highest-profile, and home to Silicon Valley and Hollywood, while the latter is both huge and the place to which millions of Californians want to move. It’s not an exaggeration to say that as these two go, so […]

Dollar - Financial history includes plenty of extreme years. That’s not surprising, since we’re emotional beings with short memories. Combine those two traits and you get cycles, many of which end with a bang. Even so, this one stands out. A full accounting of the ways in which today’s financial markets have exceeded previous bounds of rationality […]

Dollar - We’re deluged with numbers these days, many of them huge, ominous departures from historical norms. But one matters more than the others. To understand why, let’s start with some history. In the 1970s the US decided to enter the expensive and divisive Vietnam War, while simultaneously creating major entitlement programs including the also very expensive […]

Dollar - If you’re over 40 you’ve lived through at least three epic financial bubbles: junk bonds in the 1980s, tech stocks in the 1990s, and housing in the 2000s. Each was spectacular in its own way, and each threatened to take down the whole financial system when it burst. But they pale next to what’s happening […]

Dollar - For just a little while – literally a couple of days – silver stackers saw the light of sudden riches at the end of the tunnel. The Reddit/Robinhood hoards had noticed that the metal was cheap and blatantly manipulated, and therefore ripe for an epic short squeeze. They were piling into SLV and PSLV, forcing […]

January 28th, 2021 | When Predator Becomes Prey

Dollar - Wall Street traders have traditionally played hardball with each other. They’ll take a position and then “talk their book” on CNBC, or short a competitor’s favorite stock while spreading negative rumors about it, or do any number of other ethically-dubious things to profit at the expense of their peers. When they end up on the […]

Dollar - The idea that “bitcoin is its own asset class” and should therefore be judged based on its own highly-constrained supply rests on the assumption that the rest of cryptospace consists of “shitcoins” that will evaporate as bitcoin, with its first-mover advantage, network effects, etc., eats the rest of the currency world and becomes the one […]

Dollar - Early in the pandemic, “trust the science!” could actually be used in a debate without attracting derisive laughter. But as the flip-flops, mistakes and, yes, lies have accumulated, a consensus seems to be forming that the health care authorities are no more trustworthy than the people running Congress or the Fed. For proof, let’s start […]

Dollar - As corporate social media platforms try to sterilize the global conversation, some funny-if-they-weren’t-so-scary statistics are emerging. Here, for instance, is a recent screenshot of conservative pundit Ann Coulter’s Twitter account. Note that her activity and notoriety are soaring (which you’d expect during a presidential election), while her followers diminish by 81,000. Does this make sense? […]

January 9th, 2021 | The Bailout Binge Begins

Dollar - Incoming president Joe Biden just proposed that $10,000 of student debt be forgiven for each borrower. This sounds generous but is actually just the opening bid in a negotiation that will end in a very different, much more expensive place – and that will be repeated for many, many other groups of borrowers. Here’s how […]
« Previous PageNext Page »