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Danielle Park

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Portfolio Manager and President of Venable Park Investment Counsel ( Ms Park is a financial analyst, attorney, finance author and regular guest on North American media. She is also the author of the best-selling myth-busting book "Juggling Dynamite: An insider's wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts," and a popular daily financial blog:

February 8th, 2023 | The Financial Noose Tightens

Juggling Dynamite - The US Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) is used by monetary policymakers to gauge credit conditions. Over the past year, banks have reported tighter lending standards on commercial loans to small, large and middle-market firms (blue bars below since 1990, courtesy of The Daily Shot). This indicator has traditionally led US corporate […]

Juggling Dynamite - So far in 2023, value-indiscriminate buyers are still pounding into the riskiest low-yielding assets with wild abandon. Take BBB-rated bonds-whose credit quality is just one level above “junk.” At past cycle bottoms (attractive investment opportunities), the US Fed had raised short-term rates enough that defaults spiked and BBB bond prices fell more than 20%–enough to […]

Juggling Dynamite - This segment reviews US data, but the trends are similar in Canada. The EPB Housing Deep Dive report is focused on the residential construction cycle (the leading sector of the economy). Here is a direct video link. This report is a preview of content exclusive to members of the EPB Research Gold Tier. If you would […]

Juggling Dynamite - January brought gains across most asset classes, especially for the junkiest debt, equities and crypto-Ponzis. The bulls are chomping at the bit to convince us that the 2022 loss cycle is now over. However, it bears noting that big rebounds have been a regularly recurring feature within bear markets since time began. The Bloomberg chart […] Radio - Wages vs. Inflation Rate

Juggling Dynamite - The US Fed’s next rate announcement is due on Wednesday, and the consensus expects a 25 basis points (bps) increase, raising base rates in the banking system to 4.25 to 4.75% from 0 to .25% one year ago. Lest anyone forget, the Fed is also reducing assets on its balance sheet (QT) by $95 billion […]

Juggling Dynamite - As we’ve noted many times, changes in monetary policy—tightening or loosening—move through the economy at a lag of one to two years. For this reason, the record tightening done by central banks in 2022/2023 will slow the economy into 2024, and any easing efforts in late 2023/24 will not fully be felt until 2024/2025. In […]

Juggling Dynamite - This clip is ten years old and timeless. Funny because so painfully apropos at every income level. (Thanks, John, for sending this one from the archives). On the other side, of course, we have all the credit pushers brainwashing the masses with assurances that we “deserve credit” and are “richer than we think.” Make it stop! Here’s a direct video […]

Juggling Dynamite - Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji are co-founders of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), which determines recession dates for 22 economies around the world. Their latest findings are summarized in Don’t be fololed! A recession really is coming: Recession concerns in the US are widespread these days. Yet, some economists argue that the strength of the labor market […]

Juggling Dynamite - Hoisington Management’s fourth quarter 2022 Review and Outlook is now available to the public on its website here. As always, a concise master class on monetary impacts and the economic cycle, see A Theory of Interest Rate Cycles. The bottom line: growth bearish and investment grade bond bullish: Poor consumer spending over the critical Christmas shopping period, slumping exports, […]

Juggling Dynamite - The percentage of global 2/10-year Treasury yield curves inverted at the end of 2021 (long rates lower than short) was 90% (in blue below since 1980, courtesy of Lance Roberts). Historically, recessions (grey bars) and bear markets (S&P 500 in black) have followed when the number of inverted 10-year curves reached 50% (red dotted line). […] Radio - Is Tesla about to crash and burn?

Juggling Dynamite - A decade of ultra-low rates punished risk-conscious savers and encouraged profligate financial decisions among the masses. Rather than use record-low interest rates to get out of debt faster, most levered up to imprudent levels. Insufficient cash and falling prices are common themes as pandemic excesses unwind. This will take some time, but for the few […]

Juggling Dynamite - Truly other world… Sandy Munro was blown away by Tesla’s profit margin, which is eight times more than Toyota’s.  Here is a direct video link.

Juggling Dynamite - Bank economist Robert Kavcic offers useful macro housing context in the Better Dwelling segment below. One caveat worth noting, though: from a price peak in February 2022, a housing bottom by mid-2023 would be an unusually quick downcycle. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada’s late but great tightening from March 2022 through early 2023 will contract […]

Juggling Dynamite - Used car prices fell nearly 15% year over year in December, and as shown below, since 1997, prices would need to fall another 30% to return to pre-COVID norms. Monetary policy changes move through the economy in 12 to 24-month lags. This happens for a few reasons. First, many interest rates are fixed for set […]

January 11th, 2023 | This Housing Bust is Global

Juggling Dynamite - Canada led the world in the most egregiously inflated home prices in the past few years, but New Zealand, Australia and Sweden were other top-risk contenders. Now high debt levels are having similar demand and price-depressing impacts in many countries all at once. See Sweden is facing its ‘day of reckoning’ as house prices plummet: “We […]

Juggling Dynamite - In the first quarter of 2021, residential ‘investment’ in Canada (real estate commissions, construction of homes, significant renovations, and ownership transfer costs) comprised some 9% of Canada’s GDP, while business investment plunged. US residential investment peaked at 6.7% in 2006 before that epic bubble burst. We have noted repeatedly that Canada’s exuberance in real estate was an unsustainable […] Radio - Interest Rates, Inflation

Juggling Dynamite - Two thousand twenty-two vaporized $25 trillion of notional equity value from global balance sheets, and the global bond market lost nearly $10 trillion more. Together, the decline in these two asset classes amounted to about a third of the world’s 2022 103.86 trillion GDP, not counting ongoing losses in real estate, commodities, or the crypto […]

December 30th, 2022 | Cheers To Healthful Longevity

Juggling Dynamite - Seventy-two percent of Americans (Canadians, about the same) are now overweight and obese, reducing the quality and quantity of their life. Not to mention crushing the sustainability of our sick-care system. Study after study shows that it’s the type and quantity of things we are consuming. Here’s to delicious things that don’t promote cancer, heart […]

Juggling Dynamite - I recently reviewed Canadian real estate metrics in Canadian home prices need to fall. The segment below reviews similar affordability deficits in US home prices. The median US household income is $54,000, while the household income needed to qualify to buy the median US single-family home is $87,000 (up nearly 50% year over year). Real estate presently […] Radio - Canadian Real Estate still not affordable

December 20th, 2022 | Fun with Stocks and Curves

Juggling Dynamite - The S&P 500 is down just over 20% since January 4th and a seasonally unusual -6.4% month to date. Under the hood, the most widely held stocks are leading the descent. The top five most expensive S&P 500 companies are now: Apple (6.23% of index) -27% Microsoft (5.65% of index) -28% Amazon ( 2.42% of the index) […]

Juggling Dynamite - According to Statscan, 89% of Canadian individuals earn less than $100,000 annually. The median household income is $75,000 nationally (see more here) and just over $80,000 per year in the Greater Toronto (GTA) and Vancouver (GVA) areas. According to CMHC (calculator here), a household with $100,000 in annual income ($8,333 a month before tax) and no other debt can qualify […]
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