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Danielle Park

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Portfolio Manager and President of Venable Park Investment Counsel (www.venablepark.com) Ms Park is a financial analyst, attorney, finance author and regular guest on North American media. She is also the author of the best-selling myth-busting book "Juggling Dynamite: An insider's wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts," and a popular daily financial blog: www.jugglingdynamite.com

Juggling Dynamite - In the US inflation estimate for January, auto insurance premiums rose 20.6% year over year, while tenant and household insurance rose 6% annualized over just the last three months. Across the developed world, insurers are exiting some areas and demanding higher premiums and deductibles in others; affordable insurance — often a condition of mortgage and vehicle debt […]

Juggling Dynamite - In the fourth quarter of 2023, 7.7% of US auto loans transitioned to delinquency on an annualized basis (New York Fed data)—the highest rate in 13 years. The total annual cost of owning a new car, including expenses such as gas and insurance, climbed to $12,182 in 2023, up from $10,728 in 2022 (latest estimates […]

Juggling Dynamite - A wave of new multifamily residential projects are coming online as migration slows and high mortgage rates weigh on housing demand. Add to the mix an insurance crisis, and a seller’s market is becoming a buyer’s one. See, In Southwest Florida, high home insurance rates are driving away would-be buyers: Florida’s southwestern coast — long one […]

Juggling Dynamite - The credit cycle is alive and well. But credit cycles typically move with multi-quarter time lags, and that’s longer than the attention span of most. Moreover, massive government subsidies slowed the monetary impacts more than average this time. Nevertheless, twenty-three months since this epic tightening cycle began, wheels are coming off all around for those […]

Juggling Dynamite - New bare trust reporting requirements for the 2023 tax year include accounts where adults have been added to the bank and investment accounts of another relative. For Bare Trusts ending December 31, 2023, you have to file a T3 tax return, says Ali Spinner, tax partner at Crowe Soberman LLP. Here is a direct video link. 

Juggling Dynamite - To restore Canadian home affordability to historically sustainable levels, prices need to halve, incomes double or some combination of both. All options are painful in the short to medium term for asset prices, the leveraged and Canada’s real estate-concentrated economy. Charles St. Arnaud, Chief Economist at Alberta Central and former economist at the Bank of […]

Juggling Dynamite - So-called “liar loans” helped fuel the US property bubble and bust, leading to the 2008 recession. Unfortunately, Canada has followed suit since. Sam Cooper BREAKS NEWS on Mortgage Fraud and Canadian Banks. Here is a direct video link. Read more at “Fake Chinese income” mortgages fuel Toronto Real Estate Bubble: HSBC Bank Leaks.

Juggling Dynamite - Since China entered the World Trade Organization in December 2001, US producer prices (black line below since 2000) have tracked up and down with China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI in green). Awash in excess capacity today, China is exporting deflationary pressures to the rest of the world.   In several key manufacturing sectors, goods are […]

Juggling Dynamite - Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the latest market trends, the looming commercial real estate crisis, impact on the Fed’s rate path outlook, and more. Here is a direct video link. 

Juggling Dynamite - Property insurance premiums are leaping, and coverage is becoming harder to find in many areas of the world. Few note the significance of these trends and the negative impact on asset prices. Less insurance coverage naturally reduces the amount of net worth owners want in real estate overall and in any location. Many homeowners in […]

Juggling Dynamite - Canadian consumer insolvencies rose significantly in 2023, up 26.2% in Ontario and 23.0% across Canada. The latest Hoyes Michalos 2023 Joe Debtor insolvency data is available here. Doug Hoyes explains the findings below. What’s distressing to me is the person filing for insolvency is someone with higher income than in the past, says Doug Hoyes, co-founder […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Will insurance soon be impossible to get? See Charts.

Juggling Dynamite - Danielle DiMartino Booth believes Fed Chair Powell is sticking to prudent interest rate levels in an effort to crush the Fed put and do the “right thing” in the long term for the economy. Here’s hoping… Powell: We Wouldn’t Wait to Get to 2% Inflation to Cut Rates — DiMartino Booth with Charles Payne of […]

Juggling Dynamite - Our September 2021 client letter “Shifting Foundations” examined the default of China’s second-largest property developer, Evergrande, and the implications of a real estate bust leading to a slump in the Chinese and global economy. You can read the entire letter at this link. Here’s a taste: Insolvency problems in China’s real estate sector sent shock […]

Juggling Dynamite - Danielle presents at VRIC 2024. Here is a direct video link.    Further to real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation) being demand-crushingly high for borrowers (but attractive for savers), the chart below shows the US Fed Funds Rate (FFR) minus the 5-year inflation swap rate is the highest today in over 20 years.  

Juggling Dynamite - As Meta and Amazon further fan animal spirits in the tech sector, the melt in commercial real estate is spreading through the economy and financial system. US regional banks are -54% since January 2022, and the contagion is international, see Commercial Property Losses Hammer Banks on Three Continents: Investors have wondered when the pain from the […]

February 1st, 2024 | Lacy Hunt on Thoughtful Money

Juggling Dynamite - Is the soft landing camp being proven right? Have we been able to side step the Lag Effects so many expected from the Fed’s aggressive campaigns of rates hikes and Quantitative Tightening? Is inflation indeed on its way to being tamed this year? For answers, we have the great fortune to sit down today with […]

January 31st, 2024 | Layoffs Leaping in 2024

Juggling Dynamite - Companies could be expected to ramp up layoffs come March, according to research by Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research. Here is a direct video link.  

Juggling Dynamite - The US 10-2-year Treasury yield spread (via YCharts below) has moved from a deep inversion at 108 bps last July to -14 bps today. This process is known as re-steepening.Re-steepening of the yield curve (10 minus 3-year spread in brown below since 1989, courtesy of my partner Cory Venable) has historically coincided with rising unemployment claims (in […]

January 29th, 2024 | Danielle on Thoughtful Money

Juggling Dynamite - Danielle was a guest with Adam Taggart on Thoughtful Money. Here is a direct video link.  

Juggling Dynamite - Hoisington Management’s latest Q4 quarterly review and outlook is now available here. With some risk markets still drunk on blind optimism, the list of recessionary indicators grows longer by the day. Real-world facts always matter in the end. Hoisington summarizes some of the most historically prescient data to date: Over the past year, inflation, real GDI, […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Real Interest Rates rising even as Central Banks hold off hikes

Juggling Dynamite - Well-documented policy lags suggest that central banks have done more than enough to reverse the inflationary impulse over the next 12 to 24 months. As the rate of inflation comes down, real interest rates (overnight rate less CPI) rise (better for savers but worse for borrowers) and crimp the economy even after central banks pause […]

Juggling Dynamite - Remember in 2007-08 when bulls were all in love with China and projecting endless growth and outsized investment returns as far as the eye can see? It turns out the business cycle was not repealed, and high valuations and euphoric consensus remain a reliable precursor to mean reversion and capital losses. Chinese stock prices have […]

Juggling Dynamite - Limiting short-term rental properties increases housing inventory for primary occupancy, pressuring long-term rents and sale prices lower. This is a necessary part of helping to abate the housing affordability crisis. But it comes at the expense of highly leveraged owners and lenders who were banking on prices only going up. B.C.’s new laws on short-term […]
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