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Danielle Park

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Portfolio Manager and President of Venable Park Investment Counsel (www.venablepark.com) Ms Park is a financial analyst, attorney, finance author and regular guest on North American media. She is also the author of the best-selling myth-busting book "Juggling Dynamite: An insider's wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts," and a popular daily financial blog: www.jugglingdynamite.com

Juggling Dynamite - Spikes in agriculture, fossil fuels and housing (housing makes up a third of CPI) pushed inflation (a lagging indicator) in March to the highest reading in 40 years. Amid negative real wages, consumers have less cash for everything, and corporate profit margins are under pressure. Add in a rate shock–the bond market has already sold […]

Juggling Dynamite - Gasoline prices leapt 45% over the past year, and the UN Food and Agriculture food price index, rose 34 percent to an all-time high in March (shown below since 2001). In the process, expectations for central bank rate hikes have triggered an abrupt sell-off in financial markets. As shown below, courtesy of Bloomberg and Lance Roberts, US aggregate bond […]

Juggling Dynamite - Independent and well-articulated, Eric is worth the listen. On today’s episode of On The Margin, Mike Ippolito is joined by returning guest Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research. After correctly identifying signs of decelerating growth months ahead of most, Eric comes back to the podcast to share how he forecast the economic slowdown. As […]

Juggling Dynamite - Precision fermentation (PF) and cellular agriculture (CA) are major tech-enabled disruptions attracting investment and market share away from legacy animal-based industries. The ReThinkx August 2021 report here explains the escalating efficiency of precision fermentation (PF) protein and cell-based meats over the next 8 years–believe it or not, this is happening. The food disruption will be driven by […]

Juggling Dynamite - Danielle Park and Jay Martin discuss: 1. Why the Fed is smart to try and raise interest rates 2. Why their timing is terrible 3. Why Powell will not be able to stick to the the plan 4.Asset Price predications 5. Thoughts on inflation Here is a direct video link. Further to our discussion on water […]

April 6th, 2022 | Interest Rate Shock

Juggling Dynamite - Canadian 5-year fixed mortgage rates have moved above 4% and (as shown below) US 30-year mortgage rates above 5%, up more than 1% in just the last month (similar leap in Europe). This rapid 25% increase in interest costs, coming amid highly indebted households and corporations, is the most significant financial shock since 2007. Bond […]

Juggling Dynamite - As government bond prices have declined on expectations of aggressive rate hikes from central banks, fixed mortgage interest rates (priced off bond yields), have leapt. After rising sharply during the pandemic, high home prices have now combined with higher interest rates to drive a 30.5% year-over-year increase in US mortgage payments to the end of […]

Juggling Dynamite - Below is the chart showing the present 46% allocation of household net worth to equities, versus just 15% to bonds and 16% to cash. This level of risk-concentration to equities was seen at the 2000 tech bubble top and, to a lesser extent, the 2008 bubble top. However, allocations to the least risky bonds and […]

Juggling Dynamite - Better Dwelling co-founder and housing analyst Stephen Punwasi offers an archival antidote to the “running out of land” mania now dominating the consensus view.  Headlines from past Canadian housing bubbles since the 1930s confirm that this baseless sales pitch has resurfaced before the bust each time.  Well worth the review, see:  Canada is running out of […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - No Such Thing as a Guaranteed Return

March 31st, 2022 | Mortgage Math Matters

Juggling Dynamite - The Bank of Canada is now expected to hike the base interest rate by .50% at its next several meetings toward 2.5% by year-end. The bond market has sold off sharply to price in these aspirations, so fixed mortgage rates (priced off bond yields) are already higher. The mortgage math matters: Before the pandemic, the […]

Juggling Dynamite - The free-for-all of asset bubbles builds a world of hurt for would-be “investors” who neglect math and due diligence work.  Old lessons are ripe for relearning here.  See:  Real estate company collapses, 500 homes affected, $10m from investors across Canada missing.  “Fund-A-Flip…hassle-free landlord programs”…so many red flags… A judge has assigned a special investigator to look into […]

Juggling Dynamite - The CRB commodity price index (39% fossil fuels and 41% agriculture) has leapt 25% since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th and is up 38% year-to-date. If that pace of increase were to continue over the balance of 2022, it would amount to an unprecedented 142% year-over-year annualized appreciation; by far, the most of the […]

Juggling Dynamite - Darius offers an advisory service for traders, so short-term suggestions should be taken within this context.  However, from a medium and longer-term asset management perspective, there are many valuable observations and insights in this segment on where we are in the current market cycle and what this suggests for relative return probabilities over the next […]

Juggling Dynamite - Better Dwelling housing analyst Stephen Punwasi addressed the Canadian House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance this week. His comments elucidate why the number of Canadians expecting to buy a home has fallen by a third in 2022 and why the solution to unaffordable housing is less credit, not more supply.  Read:  Better Dwellings Opening Statement Before the […]

Juggling Dynamite - Citing Fed Chair Powell’s recent inflation alarm, Goldman Sachs is predicting the U.S. central bank will hike policy rates half a percent at both its May and June meetings. The last time the U.S. Fed hiked by half a percent was May 2000, and the recession began ten months later. By the May 2000 hike, the […]

Juggling Dynamite - China’s credit-fuelled property boom was responsible for an estimated third of its economic growth over the last decade. It was also a significant driver of commodity demand, economic momentum and property market inflows globally. Its bust has contagion implications globally too. The rapid expansion of China’s property sector was powered by a great migration from […]

Juggling Dynamite - Yesterday, US Fed head Jerome Powell ramped up talk of inflation-fighting rate hikes and aggressively reducing the Fed’s balance sheet. Bond prices have tumbled, as debt service costs leap for the public and private sectors. Over the past seven months, US ten-year Treasury prices (the flip side of yields) have seen their third-largest drawdown of […]

Juggling Dynamite - The price of the average Canadian home hit $816,720 in February, its highest level on record (Canadian Real Estate Association). The $816,720 average selling price is up 20 percent compared to last year’s level. In the most populated areas of the Greater Toronto and Vancouver areas, the average selling price exceeded $1 million. Without these two […]

Juggling Dynamite - Just as employers are stepping up return to office mandates, gasoline prices are the highest in eleven years. Consumer pain is a valuable behavioural catalyst. Half of the Canadian respondents to a recent Leger poll survey said they were now using their vehicles less; one-third said they were looking to buy an electric vehicle. I can attest […]

March 19th, 2022 | Peloton’s Wild Ride

Juggling Dynamite - The subscriber-based treadmill and fitness company amassed a cult following in the early days of the pandemic, pushing the stock price to euphoric highs. Then everything changed. Individual company narratives vary, but stock declines over 70% are typical after extreme over-valuations. Peloton has been on a wild ride, announcing its CEO was stepping down and […]

Juggling Dynamite - Danielle offers a good overview of recent data and why the Fed has ended QE and is now determined to start hiking rates into plummeting global growth and tumbling financial markets. At the same time, you gotta love all the sites that have popped to attract so-called ‘traders’ this cycle.  Here’s a prediction:  when this […]

Juggling Dynamite - The U.S. Federal Reserve finally hiked its policy rate by .25% yesterday, its first increase since 2018. With rates now in the barely positive .25-.50% nominal range, the plan is to hike six more times toward 2% by year-end. At their meeting in May, they hope to start running down their holdings of nearly $9 […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Crude Oil, Canadian Dollar, Housing Bubble

Juggling Dynamite - This segment is a worthwhile discussion on global credit markets, credit creation, what they are telling us about the global economy and why China cannot sustain global demand this time. Economist Danielle DiMartino Booth does a virtual interview with Alfonso Peccatiello. Alfonso Peccatiello is a former Head of a $20 bn Investment Portfolio at a […]
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