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Danielle Park

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Portfolio Manager and President of Venable Park Investment Counsel (www.venablepark.com) Ms Park is a financial analyst, attorney, finance author and regular guest on North American media. She is also the author of the best-selling myth-busting book "Juggling Dynamite: An insider's wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts," and a popular daily financial blog: www.jugglingdynamite.com

Juggling Dynamite - January US Empire Manufacturing reading this morning was -43.7, much worse than the -5 estimated and much weaker than during the 2008 financial crisis/great recession. Meanwhile, the analyst consensus is for S&P earnings per share growth of more than 10 percent over the next 12 months (red line below since 2000, courtesy of Mikael Sarwe) even […]

Juggling Dynamite - The Bank of Canada’s (BOC’s) Business Outlook Survey for the fourth quarter of 2023 found that 40% of Canadian companies were experiencing a slowdown in sales. Indicators of future sales – including order books, advance bookings, and sales inquiries – remain subdued. See: Bank of Canada surveys show weak business environment, lower inflation expectations. The dour outlook […]

Juggling Dynamite - With inflation cooling and unemployment rising, rate cuts are coming into view. Permanent job losses have already accelerated in line with the onset of the past three recessions since 1995 (see arrows and grey bars below, courtesy of Game of Trades).   Since 1969, the longest Fed pause time between the last rate hike and […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - US Bitcoin ETF, Interest Rates, Car Theft, Arson

Juggling Dynamite - When Canadians sell a property for less than is owed in the mortgage, lenders are entitled to pursue any balance remaining plus interest, fees, and legal costs; this includes garnishing bank accounts and income. For those in debt strife, it’s wise to speak with an Insolvency Trustee to consider if you may be a candidate […]

Juggling Dynamite - There are so many incredible developments in financial markets right now it isn’t easy to choose what to write about. And there are so many complex interconnections. Suffice it to say the throughlines are rampant financial fraud and unusually high capital risk, with very few people positioned to prosper in 2024. Just one area of […]

Juggling Dynamite - During the supply disruptions of the pandemic, stockpiling became an international obsession and warehouse space was in high demand. That’s reversing now. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the US had 5.2% of warehouse space empty versus 4.7% in 2019. Construction doesn’t turn on a dime, though. Hundreds of millions of new square footage are […]

Juggling Dynamite - There has never been an incidence in history where the US Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) had a six-month average growth rate sub -4.5%, and the US economy did not enter an NBER-defined recession. The six-month smoothed LEI growth rate in November was -7.5% (chart below since 2000, courtesy of ISABELNET.com) and has been […]

Juggling Dynamite - In June 1999, the US Fed began an 11-month rate hiking cycle that took the overnight rate from 4.75 to 6.5% by May 2000. Amid tech-mania-inspired irrational exuberance, the S&P 500 hit 1527 by March 2000, sold off into the summer, and rebounded to double top at 1521 by September on soft-landing forecasts. What unfolded […]

Juggling Dynamite - Rebounding Treasury bond prices have lowered mortgage rates from their cycle high in October, but home prices at current mortgage rates are still painfully unaffordable for most. The Bank of Canada estimates that 45% of Canadian homeowners saw their mortgage payments rise in 2023, and 50% of mortgages initiated before March 2022 will face higher […]

January 3rd, 2024 | 2024 Starts Rough

Juggling Dynamite - Assets bid up by irrational amounts eventually end up on clearance sale. Always. This is something to remember with the seven most expensive tech companies ending 2023 at their October 2021 price peaks (chart shown below, courtesy of All Star Charts), even while the Fed funds rate has moved from .25 to 5.5% and earnings […]

Juggling Dynamite - Bonds are betting that falling inflation and rising unemployment will prompt policymakers to cut interest rates next year aggressively. After selling off in 2021 and 2022, the world’s bond market has rebounded sharply into year-end. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Total Return Index (shown below) has risen nearly 10% over November and December, its best two-month run in […]

Juggling Dynamite - Explore the Sahm Rule, a key recession indicator by economist Claudia Sahm, signalling economic downturns when the unemployment rate’s 3-month average rises by over 0.5%. Currently, at 0.3%, its upward trend sparks speculation about a potential 2024 recession. Here is a direct video link. 

December 22nd, 2023 | Peace

Juggling Dynamite - Wishing you love, light, and, above all, inner peace. May we make wise choices and have the strength and commitment to see them through. May 2024 be a year of revelation and enlightenment. I love the beauty and simplicity of this quartet. No gimmicks needed. Here is a direct video link.

December 20th, 2023 | Debt Defaults Leaping

Juggling Dynamite - Canadian debt delinquencies, insolvency proposals, and bankruptcies are all rising sharply for households and businesses. Equifax president Sue Hutchison discussed the latest data on BNN yesterday. We are in the early days of this distress cycle with three-quarters of pandemic-era low-rate mortgages to reset at higher rates in 2024 through 2026: “We expect to see tremendous […]

Juggling Dynamite - China’s economy is struggling through a multi-year downturn in the property market, a slump in manufacturing activity and falling exports. Other countries and markets should take note. A triple whammy of falling real estate and stock prices amid credit defaults has hurt household net worth and consumer confidence. See, China’s real estate meltdown is battering the […]

Juggling Dynamite - Asset markets leapt last week as the US Fed (and Bank of Canada) held monetary policy unchanged for the 5th consecutive month, having hiked last in July. US Chair Powell fueled euphoria when he said the Fed was talking about rate cuts in 2024–the crowd went wild. Just weeks before, Powell had said they were […]

Juggling Dynamite - As expected, the US Fed did not hike yesterday and held its policy rate at a 22-year high while signalling rate cuts to start in 2024. Asset markets are jubilant across the board. Relief rallies are typical at the end of central bank hiking cycles. Optimism makes sense for government bonds, which become more valuable […]

December 14th, 2023 | No shame in seeking debt help

Juggling Dynamite - A generation of people has been devastated by monetary and fiscal policies aimed at ‘helping’ them to borrow financially suicidal sums for housing. Grave mistakes have been made, encouraged by many well-meaning family members, policy-makers and commissioned realtors and lenders. In many cases, costs will be impossible to sustain even as interest rates retreat because […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Supply not the problem behind Canada’s housing crisis

Juggling Dynamite - Consumer spending drives some 58% of Canada’s economic growth and 68% in America, so when households are blindsided by higher carrying costs and deteriorating employment, financial weakness compounds through the economy to lower revenues for companies and governments. See more on the current US job cycle in ECRI, Unveiling the Cyclical Reality of Jobs Growth: Our […]

Juggling Dynamite - The US yield curve’s last 17 months of inversion has been the second longest in history (2-10 curve inversion lengths shown below since 1941 courtesy of The Daily Shot). Ditto for Canada, where the 2s-10s curve has also been inverted since July 2022. Only four other times in history have seen this degree of inversion, […]

Juggling Dynamite - Our September 30, 2021, client letter “Shifting Foundations” highlighted the default of Chinese property developer Evergrande as a turning point in the real estate-centric China growth story with broad implications for the global economy: China’s property sector has been the largest driver of its economic growth over the past decade and a significant driver of global growth. […]

Juggling Dynamite - Danielle was a guest on the CBC Weekend Business Panel, talking about the Bank of Canada rate decision, grocery prices and McDonald’s efforts to increase sales. You can watch a video clip of the segment here.

Juggling Dynamite - Equifax Canada reports that Canadian households added $80 billion of additional consumer debt over the past year, making the total outstanding an eye-watering $2.4 trillion. Well beyond paycheck to paycheck, many are living credit card to credit card. Money owed on credit cards climbed to a new high of $113.4 billion in the third quarter of […]
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