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November 24, 2023 | Why Commodity Perma-Bulls Have it Wrong

Bob Hoye has been in investment business for some 50 years, making him one of the more experienced researchers. His historical work has been thorough providing the first recognition of the fascinating transition from speculation in commodities to speculation in financial assets. It was controversial when Bob observed that “No matter how much the Fed prints, stocks will outperform commodities”. In January 2000, the research team concluded that the Dot-Com Bubble would peak in March 2000. In early 2007, the team outlined that the credit markets would reverse in May-June 2007. They did and the stock market followed. The latest was the call in early October for the Bitcoin Bubble to complete in December. Bob’s essays and speeches on political change and on actual climate change have been widely circulated.

What is the long term prospect for Gold?

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Archives November 24th, 2023

Posted In: Radio


  • Ken Katen says:

    Jim and Bob – We enjoy your weekly comments and greatly appreciate your insights. Can you help us with two questions? First, with the $2 trillion encompassed In the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips Act yet to be spent, does this massive spending in essence constitute a financial “put” for stock markets that will keep them buoyant for the foreseeable future? Second, assuming your prognosis that long-term interest rates will rise in a post-bubble contraction, can you give us an idea as to when investors should switch from short-term instruments, e.g. TBills, and begin investing in long-term instruments, i.e. 10- and 20 year TBonds?

  • Michael says:

    Hi Bob and Jim, The markets have had an incredible rally in November. Bob, is there enough irrational exuberance left to carry these markets higher into January? Should one now begin to accumulate short positions in the Russell 2000 and in emerging markets since these markets fall first? Assuming we have a market sell-off in early 2024, what might happen to the gold miners and commodity producers relative to the overall stock market this time around given the current level of inflation?

  • Kathleen says:

    Hello Bob and Jim. Happy Holidays. Speaking of holidays, the US and Canadian consumers have been on an extended holiday the past two years spending money “like there is no tomorrow”. This reminds me of the song “Let the Good Times Roll” made popular by Ray Charles. Lyrics: “Don’t sit there mumblin’, talkin’ trash… If you wanna have a ball…You gotta go out and spend some cash, and…Let the good times roll, let the good times roll”. One has to think that a monumental credit catastrophe is on the horizon. Bob, what happens next – rampant inflation, deflationary collapse or never-ending stagflation?

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