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April 27, 2023 | Two Experts Agree: Home Prices Are Headed Down Hard

John Rubino is a former Wall Street financial analyst and author or co-author of five books, including The Money Bubble: What to Do Before It Pops and Clean Money: Picking Winners in the Green-Tech Boom. He founded the popular financial website in 2004, sold it in 2022, and now publishes John Rubino’s Substack newsletter.

Wealthion’s Adam Taggart tried something different today. Instead of interviewing an expert, he had one expert interview another. It worked perfectly, producing a great discussion with chilling conclusions: If you’re in real estate as either a buyer or seller, the tenor of the market is about to change dramatically. If you’re a landlord, expect a “painful, slow bleed.”

Here are three of the charts they flashed, followed by the video itself:

Unnaturally-low interest rates allowed Home prices to far outpace homebuyer incomes, setting up a secular, not just a cyclical, correction. Put another way, home prices have to drop by more than 50% over a period of years to get back to late 20th-century norms.


When a homeowner’s mortgage costs 40% of their income, there’s not enough disposable income left over to fuel economic growth. Today’s level of home-related debt to income typically marks the beginning of a grinding decline in home prices.


Right now, the inventory of houses for sale is very low, as owners refuse to sell at suddenly-declining prices. It will take more supply to really push prices down. Where would that supply come from? Vacant houses, which outnumber homes for sale by 20:1.

Here’s the full interview:

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April 27th, 2023

Posted In: John Rubino Substack

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