July 30, 2023 | Day 820 of Build Back Better

July 30, 2023 | Turning Time

We talk frequently about the way central banks and governments affect the economy. In the grander scheme of things, though, whatever the Fed does is more like throwing a hand grenade into a large building. Yes, you’ll make some noise and cause some damage. People may be hurt. But the building won’t care, and the […]

July 29, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For July 29, 2023

It was Central Bank Week The FOMC met on Wednesday and raised 25 bps as expected, with markets now pricing a ~30% chance of another 25 bps at their September 19/20 meeting. Financial markets were essentially unchanged on the news.   The ECB met on Thursday and raised 25 bps as expected but surprised markets by NOT forecasting […]

July 29, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday July 29th 2023

The Bottom Line North American equity markets continued to respond to better than expected negative corporate news. Second quarter results released to date by major U.S and Canadian companies have been better than expected: Last week, 80 % of reporting S&P 500 companies reported higher than consensus earnings and 64% reported higher than consensus revenues. […]

July 28, 2023 | The Federal Reserve hikes rates again

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates again, to 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent. This is the highest Federal Funds rate in 22 years. The Fed has stated that it is determined to wrestle inflation back under control, which means getting to its 2 percent target or lower. Has the Fed gone too far in this […]

July 28, 2023 | Ancient Evil: Term Limits, WWIII, and Other Reasons to Clean House

  As we stumble towards World War III, it’s instructive to meet the people who are fronting for the Empire these days. The president, as everyone knows by now, is the modern equivalent of a B-movie zombie, pumped full of Adderall and shuffled out for public appearances — though even these controlled environments are now […]

July 28, 2023 | There is No Rule of Law

Anyone who thinks there is a rule of law in any country is a fool. When the movie The Forecaster came out, and I did a tour of major cities, I was in Frankfurt, and there was a question and answer period after the film. A woman stood up and said this is what is […]

July 27, 2023 | Becoming Invisible, Part 6: iPhone Privacy Settings

Smartphones are indispensable because they do a virtually infinite number of things. That’s also why they’re a privacy nightmare. Each of a phone’s basic functions — and each app that’s subsequently added to the mix — generate data that can be stored, shared, and mined by people who want to rob or control us. For […]

July 27, 2023 | Will They Shut Down Gold & Cryptocurrencies with CBDC?

There is no question that the real problem here is that the financial system is collapsing. These morons have been borrowing since World War II with ZERO intention of ever paying off the debt. They are running out of buyers. Attacking Russia and China has divided the world economy, which may be the Neocons’ goal, […]

July 26, 2023 | Conditions Least Favorable for Equities Since 2007

For those who pay attention to risk/reward dynamics, the prospective compensation for equity risk over Treasury bonds is today the lowest since the market peak in 2007-08 (S&P 500 forward earnings yield minus the ten-year Treasury yield). David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, talks about the lasting effects of Covid-19 stimulus checks on […]

July 26, 2023 | The CDBD Crisis of 2025

  QUESTION: 1. Due to the draconian rules the US digital currency shall operate under, would you consider the coming US digital currency to be the worst form of currency—worst store of value—worst asset to hold, and if so would it be better to get entirely out of cash before the US Dollar is canceled […]

July 26, 2023 | Fed Hikes by 25 Basis Points, to 5.5% Top of Range, Highest since 2001, More Rate Hikes on the Table. QT Continues

The Fed’s FOMC raised its five policy rates by 25 basis points today, which pushed the upper limit of its policy rates to 5.5%, the highest since January 2001. The Fed had broadly telegraphed this move after the “very hawkish skip” meeting in June, when it projected two more rate hikes this year. The Fed […]

July 25, 2023 | More on the Silver Code Red

Last week, I made public an edited version of the more extensive weekly review sent to subscribers earlier. As previously stated, I believe there is a current market emergency in the COMEX silver market based upon official data indicating a massive increase in futures positioning of more than 130 million oz (26,000 contracts) as reported […]

July 25, 2023 | Canadian Equity Market: High Capital Risk Amid Falling Earnings

Canada’s TSX index has rebounded 6%, year-to-date, while its corporate earnings have contracted. As of today, the S&P/TSX Composite is expected to report a Q2 (year-over-year) earnings decline of -20.4%, compared to the estimated (year-over-year) earnings decline of -17.4% on June 30 and the estimated (year-over-year) earnings decline of -12.5% on March 31. See Canada Earnings […]

July 25, 2023 | Ukraine is a Disaster, Putin is the Moderate, & Truth is the Victim

  COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, At first, I questioned why you were more pro-Putin than the media. But given your reliable forecasting and being renowned for your sources, I kept an open mind. Whilst it is becoming clear that Putin has been going after the people who wanted to nuke and totally invade Ukraine, the media […]

July 25, 2023 | Burning Books in a Brave New 1984 World – The Age of Censorship

In Part 1 of this article, I explored how Huxley, Orwell, and Bradbury foretold the use of technology by totalitarians to subjugate and control the masses. Now we move on to a currently hot topic – censorship. “Great is truth, but still greater, from a practical point of view, is silence about truth.” ― Aldous Huxley, Brave New World Censorship “There was always a […]

July 24, 2023 | Operation Acoustic Kitty

The Central Intelligence Agency has a long history of spying on Americans. People think of the old Soviet Union or North Korea as examples of extreme government surveillance measures, but it happens right here in the Land of the Free. A reader wrote in about this topic, and I can confirm it is not a […]

July 24, 2023 | Moody’s: Financial Conditions Pose Growing Threat To Non-Banks

A new report from Moody’s highlights the clear and present risks posed by “less regulated and transparent parts of the global financial system.” In particular, financial institutions carrying “more leverage, less liquidity and weak risk management will find it harder to navigate the cycle.” But wasn’t this time supposed to be different? See Shadow Banking Stress Lurks, Moody’s warns: Tighter […]

July 24, 2023 | A Price to Pay

Happy Monday Morning! CPI headline inflation came in lower than expected this past week. Markets were calling for 3% and we got 2.8%, a pleasant surprise and back to its lowest levels since March 2021. Perhaps the 475bps of rate hikes are finally starting to work their way through the system? We are back within […]

July 23, 2023 | British Banks Close Accounts for Political Views – Wait for CBDC Currency to Appear

We have a very serious problem. Banks, Media, and Tech Companies seem to be all pushing for the end of all our civil and human rights. The truth has come out now that the Coutts Bank closed down Nigel Farage’s accounts, and it had NOTHING to do with his finances that they told everyone. That […]

July 23, 2023 | Housing Hiccups

  While inflation is technically about general price levels, in practice we use it to describe living costs. That’s why the benchmarks measure consumer prices and personal consumption expenditures. These are where higher prices hurt because they apply to everyone. Other measures like the Producer Price Index have valuable information but are less immediately relevant to most people. But […]

July 23, 2023 | A Few Trillion Here, a Few Trillion There…

Last week’s commentary predicted that rates on the Ten-Year Note, currently around 3.8%, will hit a minimum 5.5% before inflation lurches into reverse and the U.S. begins a hellish descent into a full-blown debt deflation. The following, insightful response came from our friend Richard Charles at Alpine Capital: Well done, Rick, for highlighting the crux of markets […]

July 22, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For July 22, 2023

A turning point in sizzling tech stocks? On Tuesday, MSFT announced plans to invoice corporations for employees using Microsoft AI. Within an hour; the share price rose >$20 to new All-Time Highs, adding ~$100 Billion (~4%) in market cap. By Friday’s close, those gains had evaporated, leaving the weekly chart with an ominous shooting star candlestick pattern. […]

July 22, 2023 | RAP Getting the Message? – Brainwashed