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October 1, 2023 | ‘October Surprise’ Drumbeat Quickens

Rick Ackerman

Rick Ackerman is the editor of Rick’s Picks, an online service geared to traders of stocks, options, index futures and commodities. His detailed trading strategies have appeared since the early 1990s in Black Box Forecasts, a newsletter he founded that originally was geared to professional option traders. Barron’s once labeled him an “intrepid trader” in a headline that alluded to his key role in solving a notorious pill-tampering case. He received a $200,000 reward when a conviction resulted, and the story was retold on TV’s FBI: The Untold Story. His professional background includes 12 years as a market maker in the pits of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader.

Price action last week in the charts of three bellwethers suggests that this year’s ‘October surprise’ could arrive right on schedule and that it could be a doozy.  The first shows the dollar’s so-far shallow correction off a minor Hidden Pivot rally target. This portends yet more strength, threatening to turn Powell’s tightening regime into a globally ruinous debt deflation. Second, rates on the 30-Year Bond topped at 4.81%, precisely matching the prediction featured here last week. And now let me add this detail: If yields pop above 4.81%, they should be presumed headed for exactly 4.98%, a top that I regard as very unlikely to be surpassed. Interest rates presumably would fall thereafter — for a long, long time — discounting a weakening economy bound for, if not depression, then at least a very severe and prolonged recession.


One of the updated charts packed quite a surprise: NYMEX Crude. We’ve been quite bullish on oil since early this year, when quotes were lingering around $72/barrel. However, the rally turned unusually steep in May and hit a high last week at 95.03 that fell a few dollars shy of a $98 target we’d been using as a minimum upside objective. This prompted a look at a longer-term chart. Lo, the weekly bars imply an impending run-up to $117 a barrel. Moreover, last week’s decisive move through the pattern’s Hidden Pivot midpoint at 90.67 implies that a surge to $117 is no worse than an even-money bet. Could this mean that a long-anticipated war in the Middle East is about to break about? Regardless, if the price of oil is in fact bound for $117, something world-shaking is about to occur.

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October 1st, 2023

Posted In: Rick's Picks

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