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Martin Armstrong

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Martin Arthur Armstrong is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.

January 16th, 2020 | Capital Flows & the Next ECM

Armstrong Economics - QUESTION: Sir, You have advised us to avoid sovereign debt after the ECM date. I imagine that the crisis will affect nations unequally. It seems obvious that money would leave bonds in the more challenged, negative rate countries (EU and Japan). Might these flows come into US Treasuries, thereby stabilizing US rates, at least short-term? […]

Armstrong Economics - Climate Change has become a fanatical religion because there is no proof and it rests entirely on belief. This is taking on the traits of the religious dispute which marked the fall of Rome – Pagans v Christianity. Like the Pagans, they immediately attack anyone who dares to disagree with them and they will not […]

Armstrong Economics - The banking crisis in Europe is expanding.  European banks have no liquidity and the negative interest rates have done so much harm to traditional banking in Europe, we are witnessing excessive fees unfolding. HSBC is raising its overdraft rate of 39.9% for UK customers from March 2020. Santander’s latest bank to set a 40% overdraft rate. Savings […]

Armstrong Economics - It is stunning how after more than three months, the analysis on the repo market is still nowhere close to reality. I believe that those in the trenches are, like me, afraid to really explain what is taking place for fear they will be blamed for creating a financial panic. The popular explanation in September […]

Armstrong Economics - Trump has called the Democrats the do-nothings. All they have been focused on is impeaching Trump for the polls they are looking at behind the curtain all show Trump will beat whoever they put up as their candidate. the motto has been – if you can’t beat him, impeach him. There is no other area […]

Armstrong Economics - QUESTION: Does your computer show that the major trend is down toward cooling and in the process were are getting these wild swings from new record colds to one-day wonders of hot? Thank you ‘DK ANSWER: Yes, the broader trend is cooling thanks to the solar minimum. But there are also wild swings from new […]

Armstrong Economics - QUESTION: Marty, you said that central banks can only control short-term rates not long-term. Do you see a scenario where they could control the long-term rates? Thank you for your insight DH ANSWER: If you ASSUME that there is a free market, then the answer is no possible way. Under a hybrid market, a central […]

Armstrong Economics - Many people continually talk about the dollar crashing. They say the dollar is supposed to crumble to dust and be dispersed into the wind. The bias against the dollar has been turned into a religion primarily propagated by the gold promoters. Unfortunately, they fail to understand the relationship of the dollar to the world economy. […]

Armstrong Economics - QUESTION: Dear Martin, You have discussed the structural design flaw in the euro being due to the lack of consolidation of EU countries’ debt, as well as, EU policies that prohibit bank bailouts. Why could EU policies regarding the prohibition of bank bailouts just not be changed to allow for bailouts? If I understand correctly, wasn’t […]

January 6th, 2020 | Gold, War, & the ECM

Armstrong Economics - QUESTION: Marty, Do you think it will be time to short the bonds with the ECM? Gold had bounced off the Downtrend line instead of electing the bearish reversals and it rallied after the Pi turning point. You said if gold peaked with the bottom of the ECM it could then fall back to retest […]

January 5th, 2020 | Capital Flow & War

Armstrong Economics - QUESTION: Marty, at one of your WEC events during the nineties, if I remember correctly, you had said that your capital flow analysis revealed that the dollar rises during European and Middle Eastern wars and declines with North American wars. Could you refresh my memory on that? I will see you in Shanghai. Never been […]

January 4th, 2020 | Iran & the Cycle of War

Armstrong Economics - QUESTION: Marty; you had forecast that the future war in the Middle East would start to escalate in 2020 with the ECM turn and possibly erupt by 2021. It seems Socrates got that one right after killing Soleimani, but it is about two weeks ahead of schedule. If I remember, you said this was festering […]

Armstrong Economics - COMMENT: Marty, your sources were correct when you said John McCain had conspired against Trump and was trying to help Hillary. The Inspector General Report confirms what you said long before McCain died. Truly amazing the contacts you have! SJ REPLY: The Inspector General’s report on the FBI’s investigation into Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign also proved John […]

January 2nd, 2020 | Gold & the Future

Armstrong Economics - QUESTION: Marty, you laid out gold’s forecast back in October 2018 which has been amazing long-term. While you said if gold would rally after the Pi turning point from a bounce off the downtrend line, then it should rally into the bottom of the ECM. Will you now publish the gold report? I know you have […]

January 1st, 2020 | Year of Change – 2020

Armstrong Economics - QUESTION: This is the year of the Rat. It has often been the year of economic change. Do you realize the next year will be 2032? any comment? ANSWER: The year of the Rat is interesting. Yes, it seems to align closely with change, but not always that year. Often it has been the year […]

December 31st, 2019 | Repo Crisis for Year-End

Armstrong Economics -   The Repo Crisis for year-end has had the Fed pumping in a staggering amount of about $234 billion into the repo markets. They are exchanging high-quality capital for cash to suppress market volatility and maintain the central bank’s overnight funds level, which is used as a benchmark for multiple other short-term interest rates within […]

December 30th, 2019 | Hillary For President 2020

Armstrong Economics - QUESTION: Hi Marty do you think the probability Hillary will go for presidency in Jan/feb 2020 has increased? Is that really a possibility? Then on top of that in one of your blogs you said something could happen to Trump in 2022 which means he will be respected in 2020. Thank you for your answer […]

December 28th, 2019 | Understanding Cycles

Armstrong Economics -   QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I met someone who used to work for you. He said your models are far more complex than anyone imagines and that it is not a simple algorithm. He said you have relied on quantum mechanics which is why nobody has been able to duplicate what you do. Would you care to comment? […]

Armstrong Economics - COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I have worked in the Arctic Circle. They always show polar bears on ice but what they fail to tell the public is that they normally spend time on land in summer when sea ice declines and most pregnant polar bears give birth and make their dens near the coast not on ice […]

Armstrong Economics - The US economy is still holding up the entire world. The US 3rd quarter economic growth was unrevised at 2.1%. This is still rather strong in the world of global recession yet still down from the 3%+ levels of pre-2008. Meanwhile, confidence in the housing market has finally rebounded but much of this is due […]

Armstrong Economics -  It has been obvious that the Intelligence community has tried to both prevent Trump from being elected and to overthrow his presidency. This Impeachment has turned into an outright coup. Here we have Joe Biden publicly admitting he withheld money UNLESS Ukraine fired the prosecutor who was investigating the company that hired his son […]

Armstrong Economics - QUESTION: Why do nearly 40% of billionaires drop out of school? It seems like the most successful people are all dropouts. Would you explain why? Bill Gates Steve Jobs Mark Zuckerberg Rush Limbaugh Ralph Lauren Steve Madden Rachael Ray Coco Chanel ANSWER: Very simple. Formal education is incapable of teaching creativity. This is why there […]

December 22nd, 2019 | Impeachment Chaos

Armstrong Economics - The entire impeachment process is bringing into focus serious constitutional questions. First, Congress must actually send the impeachment documents to the Senate. This cannot be done simply on a phone call or by telling the press. Pelosi has now delayed sending the articles of Impeachment for the Democrats are playing games. All along they claimed […]

Armstrong Economics -       Greta has been named “Person of the Year,” which is supposed to be a great honor. Of course, TIME is not without their flaws since in 1938 they also named Adolf Hitler the person of the year for his extraordinary economic revitalization. They also made Merkel as person of the year in 2015 because […]

December 19th, 2019 | The ECB & its Green Agenda

Armstrong Economics - QUESTION: Marty, what do you think about Legarde claiming the top priority of the ECB is climate protection? DK ANSWER: The proposition that the primary objective of the ECB should be climate protection is highly questionable even from a legal perspective. The European Treaties created the ECB with the primary function to ensure price stability. […]
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