Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Last week Israel was attacked by Hamas, shocking the world. But stock markets and the price of crude oil have demonstrated remarkable complacency after this momentous event. Is this just another skirmish in an area that has been in conflict for decades or will there be serious repercussions? The classic event that the world did […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - A collapse in bank lending is damaging for the economy, as growing credit is the most important fuel of modern economic systems. Without an annual increase in debt outstanding, a recession becomes almost inevitable. Will the current downturn in bank lending to commercial and industrial clients trigger a recession? Commercial and industrial lending peaked in […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - History will judge that the long period of low interest rates, which endured from 2009 to early 2022 was a colossal mistake. Investors piled into fixed income assets that were extremely overpriced based on rates close to zero. And now most assets that are sensitive to rates are repricing sharply downward. Last week we saw […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The U.S. stock market sold off this week after the Federal Reserve announced that rates will have to stay higher for longer. But the stock market should be careful what it wishes for. The record shows clearly that rate cuts are usually bad for the stock market and the economy. This week Jerome Powell, chair […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Scandal plagued Ontario Premier Ford stops Green Belt housing plan

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Canada’s Minsky Moment has arrived, as the demand for new credit slows and a substantial portion of household mortgage borrowers are not paying the interest on their debt, much less repaying the principal. Hyman Minsky was an American economist who focused on the business cycle and debt. Since mainstream economics ignores debt, banking and financial […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Bank of Canada goes on hold, with no rate hike this week. But those expecting significant interest rate cuts any time soon will be disappointed. The end of the multi-decade period of declining rates passed without much fanfare. But rates in Canada are now as high as they were 23 years ago. This happened […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - While the world’s crude oil consumption will soon start to decline, many investors expect there will be robust demand for crude oil for decades to come. But it is not too early to analyze the impact of declining demand for crude oil when choosing long-term investments. Most investors based in Canada, and especially Alberta, believe […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The pace of installations for new solar electricity production continues to surprise everyone, even industry insiders. Close to 400 gigawatts of capacity will be installed worldwide in 2023, with forecasts for as much as 563 gigawatts in 2025. Solar is now cheap and easy to install, especially on residential rooftops where permitting is not a […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Can you expect more housing on the market this fall?

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The headline measure was recorded as 3.2 percent from a year ago, while the closely watched core CPI was a more troublesome 4.7 percent. Is inflation beaten yet? In the mid-1970s a concentrated advertising campaign was orchestrated by the U. S. government to demonstrate a willingness to beat inflation at all costs. President Ford named […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The risk of deflation in China is real. A moderating pace of growth, large private sector debts and a slowdown in the crucial property sector suggest lower income, prices and deflation. Is China entering a debt deflation spiral? China has enjoyed a longer-than-four-decades income and wealth expansion that has rarely happened in the thousands of […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook -   The U.S. government bonds were downgraded a notch by the ratings agency, Fitch. This means the safety of the US treasuries has slipped and there is growing concern about the longer-term outlook for debt. Is the U.S. government at risk of default? Economists reacted negatively to the downgrade with Larry Summers calling it “absurd” […]