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January 24, 2023 | ECRI: A Recession Really is Coming

Danielle Park

Portfolio Manager and President of Venable Park Investment Counsel ( Ms Park is a financial analyst, attorney, finance author and regular guest on North American media. She is also the author of the best-selling myth-busting book "Juggling Dynamite: An insider's wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts," and a popular daily financial blog:

Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji are co-founders of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), which determines recession dates for 22 economies around the world. Their latest findings are summarized in Don’t be fololed! A recession really is coming:

Recession concerns in the US are widespread these days. Yet, some economists argue that the strength of the labor market — as well as household balance sheets — will keep the economy strong enough to avoid a recession.

We disagree. Despite the relatively robust job growth we’ve been seeing, the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), which we co-founded, has been predicting recession since last spring, and it remains our expectation that the US economy will enter a recession this year…

We saw a mirror image of today’s economy in the spring and summer of 2008, when the Great Recession, which started in December of 2007, was already underway.

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January 24th, 2023

Posted In: Juggling Dynamite

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