March 23, 2017 | Why Does Wall Street Not Fear ‘Mr. Smoot-Hawley’?
With all of the hubris over tax cuts and deregulation anticipated under Trump, his threatening stance on tariffs seems to be of little concern on Wall Street. It ought to be, however. Historians have come to accept more and more that the Smoot-Hawley tariff, enacted in the summer of 1930 after a knock-down, drag-out battle […]
March 21, 2017 | Selloff Rewards Two Timely Option Bets
Tuesday’s downdraft demolished a key S&P support, implying sellers aren’t through yet. The rare, exhilarating — for bears, that is — selloff also kicked into high gear two options positions we’d acquired just hours ahead of the move — one using call options in VXX; the other, DIA puts. The former doubled in price in […]
March 20, 2017 | AMZN Poised to Lead Stocks Higher
Once again, I’d suggest that you pay close attention to AMZN, since it is arguably the most important stock-market bellwether of them all. My latest tout identifies a target at $899 that is a healthy leap above targets in the $870s that we’ve been using since autumn. It would take just a small push of […]
March 17, 2017 | Buyers Will Need to Pick Up the Pace
Buyers will need to pick up the pace with a strong rally on Friday, since the stock market’s momentum was dying before Wednesday’s tightening announcement from the Fed. A merely moderate advance would place a burden on bulls when stocks resume trading Sunday night, especially if there is no news to stimulate short-covering — always […]
March 15, 2017 | Finally, the Fed Has Tamed Our Expectations
Everything went beautifully for the Fed’s charlatan-in-chief on Wednesday when the central bank announced, right on schedule and exactly as promised, a 25 basis-point increase in the federal funds rate, to 1.00%. Bond price soared, stocks moved higher without the usual wacky gyrations, the dollar took it calmly, and even bullion made nice with an […]
March 13, 2017 | Stock Market Bulls Had Better Take This Chart Seriously
[Editor’s note: I am going to keep this analysis at the top of the page for a few days because I want to be clear and loud about where I stand. RA] In January, with the E-Mini S&Ps trading at 2292.00, I sent out to subscribers a 2403.30 target that implied a rally equivalent to […]
March 9, 2017 | Stocks Flubbed a Bullish Cue
The broad averages barely blipped this week on very bullish employment news, suggesting that the moderate weakness we’ve seen in recent days is likely to continue or perhaps even snowball. We took a small put position that paid off for some subscribers, but we’ll be looking to do it again ahead of next week. Stay […]
March 7, 2017 | ‘Farmer’ Sees a Perfect Storm Brewing for Nikkei, U.S. Stocks, T-Bonds, Gold and Yen
Farmer is the handle of an astute market-watcher who occasionally posts here. He expects an imminent top in the Nikkei to produce a corresponding top in the U.S. stock market. Here’s his logic: “Keep your eyes peeled on Nikkei 20,000 as it fast approaches because it looks like we will see that number by the […]
March 6, 2017 | How Long Can Investors Tune Out the Political Mayhem?
If Trump’s economic agenda has been reason for celebration on Wall Street, it is most puzzling that investors have shown so little concern lately over the political mayhem that has gripped the presidency, the news media and the nation. Indeed, even as these troubling forces have continued to gather force, investors have pushed shares to […]
February 27, 2017 | Ratcheting Price Action Perfect for Shredding Bears, Trapping Bulls
The broad averages have routinely been ratcheting higher even when there is little buying enthusiasm evident. This is the kind of price action that shreds bears and traps bulls, and that’s why we should be on our guard even though I have somewhat higher targets outstanding for several key trading vehicles. Amazon is one of […]
February 26, 2017 | When AMZN Coughs…
Our key stock-market bellwether, AMZN, has stalled just shy of an important target at $875, implying that the broad averages are likely to sputter and wheeze in the days ahead unless Amazon shares turn sharply higher. The target remain valid, but the stock could fall a further $50, to around $790, before regaining its footing. […]
February 24, 2017 | Ready for a Housing ‘Surprise’?
Genuinely meaningful economic data from mainstream news sources is as rare as a transparent pronouncement from the wizards and charlatans at the Fed. Friday will provide an exception, however, since very meaningful new-home-sales figures for January are slated for release. The consensus expects a strong rebound from December’s miserable 536,000 (annualized); a 7.5% increase to […]
February 21, 2017 | When Does the Bull Market’s Steep Rise Become a Blowoff?
If the stock market’s wilding spree continues for just a few more days at its recent pitch, the rally is going to start looking like a blowoff on the daily and intraday charts. Rick’s Picks subscribers know something the bullish herd most likely does not, however, and that’s why we are able to watch the […]
February 16, 2017 | The Yellow Flag Is Out
The Dow Industrial Average now sits within 429 points of a potentially very important ‘Hidden Pivot’ target at 21,049 that was first signaled when the Dow hit 18675 back in November. The target is derived from purely technical calculations, and when I first aired it my gut feeling was that it seemed unlikely to be […]
February 14, 2017 | Yellen’s Idea of a Heated Economy
Yellen aggressively talked her book Tuesday, asserting that the economy looks so hunky-dory that those rate hikes she keeps promising are absolutely, definitely, positively coming. Let’s see if she changes her tune when the housing and auto sectors turn down, as appears all but certain. Substantially higher mortgage rates coupled with rising prices caused by […]
February 13, 2017 | $EUR/USD – Euro/Dollar Crossrate (Last:1.05933)
Banksters and others with a stake in the euro shouldn’t get their hopes too high, since the long-term charts point unambiguously to a target just below 82 cents (see inset). There will be rallies, of course, since sellers have been piling onto this no-brainer trade in such preponderance that there will occasionally be no one […]
February 8, 2017 | Inflation Ahead? Yeah, Sure.
The inflation drumbeat has grown more insistent lately, stoked by Fed blather about raising rates to prevent the economy from overheating. Yeah, sure. I’m not buying any of it, particularly statistics that purport to show inflation even in Europe. An epic deflation still awaits and eventually will be triggered by the implosion of a largely […]
February 4, 2017 | Where Have All the Contrarians Gone?
It looks like two straight days without pain is about as much comfort as bears are ever going to get. The market forged steadily higher on Friday, thumbing its nose at my crazy suggestion to fade any rally. I’d written here Thursday night that if the payroll number came within 25,000 of the 175,000-job estimate, […]
February 3, 2017 | Fade the Non-Farm-Payroll Lunatics
Although stocks spent most of the week churning, nothing seems to be able to bring them down for more than a day or two. Unemployment and non-farm payrolls numbers will be released Friday morning, and although economists and Wall Street pretend to care about this fundamentally meaningless data, it’s hard to imagine the broad averages […]
February 1, 2017 | Short Into This Craziness?
The Dow veered north in the final hours of Tuesday’s session, reversing the considerable momentum of a two-and-a-half day selloff to end the day 90 points off its sinkhole lows. The S&Ps did even better, carving out a v-shaped bottom that had bears once again on the ropes at the final bell. Is that the […]
January 30, 2017 | Is the Selloff Just Another Fake-Out?
Use the red line to determine whether Monday morning’s steep selloff was just a shakeout. If DIA ends the day above that line, a ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot,’ then I can practically guarantee you that the thrust will continue to at least 202.35, the ‘D’ target of the pattern. For those who are familiar with my […]
January 29, 2017 | It’s Not Bulls Who Are Driving Stocks Higher…
DaBoyz were in commando mode Sunday night, trying to determine through stealth, trial-and-error and well-honed instinct the level at which they might hope to dry up sellers for a short-squeeze attempt. Let it be said, however, that the ratcheting rally we saw last week enjoyed no bullish mandate, only sporadic buying power supplied mostly by […]
January 25, 2017 | The Trump Rally, Phase II
The stock market’s likely behavior following Friday’s presidential inauguration seemed like a coin-toss bet, but I guessed wrong. The DIA weekly puts we bought on Friday for prices ranging from 0.38 to 0.44 have gotten snuffed by the most powerful rally since the first days of the new year. We know exactly where the E-Mini […]
January 23, 2017 | Putin Opens Door for U.S. Alliance Against Terrorists
In conjunction with a massive air strike by Russian bombers, and with Donald Trump’s inaugural promise to eradicate radical Islam, Vladimir Putin has ordered Iran/Hezbollah forces out of Syria. This bold stroke required no treaties, U.N. speeches or shuttle diplomacy — only the calculation that Iran would not dare get in the way of U.S.and […]
January 22, 2017 | Betting Against Chimpanzees
With the broad averages in an extremely tedious slog sideways since mid-December, it has been very difficult to get short. A nettlesome problem is that even relatively feeble head-fakes are pushing into record-high territory. We got short anyway on Friday, taking a small speculative position in DIA puts. This is a post-inauguration play if you […]