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July 24, 2017 | AMZN Flashes Yellow

Although our most important bellwether, AMZN, bucked a weak stock market yesterday with an $18 rally, it peaked an inch from a Hidden Pivot target that could contain bulls, at least for a while. Despite this, the breakdown of VXX suggests more wafting tedium rather than a dramatic selloff.

July 23, 2017 | What Rough Beast Is This?

With mincing steps, VXX, which tracks short-term S&P volatility, continued its extraordinary descent last week to new record lows. For long-time market observers, the feeling has grown increasingly palpable that “something” has got to give; and yet, on a given day, the broad averages continue to do nothing in particular. They move almost invariably in […]

July 20, 2017 | Collapsing Volatility Falls to a Key Support

VXX came down to within a hair of a key support at 11.27 on Wednesday, but if it fails, the next leg down could see VXX plunge to 10.24 in search of a durable bottom. That would be an enormous move percentage-wise, especially with VXX, a betting vehicle for short-term S&P volatility, already trading at […]

July 18, 2017 | VXX and AMZN Continue to Set New Records

AMZN soared as VXX continued to implode, suggesting that the forces that have been driving the bull market in recent months remain strong. That said, the former, currently trading for around 1025, will run out of room if and when it hits 1083, a Hidden Pivot resistance that has been nearly a year-and-a-half in coming. […]

July 16, 2017 | We Are Shocked…SHOCKED! that the Fed Has Turned Dovish

Perceptions that the Fed has turned dovish sent stocks wafting higher last week, but how high can they go if driven by this allegedly ‘new’ piece of information?  There was never much room to do any significant tightening in the first place; now, with the housing and auto sectors rolling over, odds of another rate […]

July 13, 2017 | Friday Possibilities

The broad averages made scant progress on Thursday, perhaps because AMZN, the only stock that matters, was in what has so far been a mild correction. I have a bullish target outstanding in the stock that lies about 17 points above. Expect a bullish finale to the week if AMZN gets traction and heads toward […]

July 11, 2017 | Is Volatility About to Blast Off?

I wrote here yesterday about using VIX/VXX as a timing device to predict the end of the bull market. Below is a companionable view posted by ‘Seneca” in response. We both see “something big,” probably sooner rather than later. But we differ as to whether VXX, an ETF that tracks short-term S&P volatility, has already […]

July 10, 2017 | Will This Bell Ring at the Top?

I don’t often use volatility as a timing indicator, but we’ve got a promising Hidden Pivot target in VXX that could conceivably serve that purpose. So far, VXX, an equity-based ETF that that tracks short-term S&P 500 volatility, has done a good job, keeping us properly bullish on stocks as we wait for it to […]

July 9, 2017 | The REAL Implication of Taxing Robots

The stock market rallied on Friday on employment news that should have been cause for worry rather than celebration. It is yet one more sign that shares have completely decoupled from reality if not yet sanity. Although the work force was reported to have grown by 220,000 in the last month, there has been scant […]

July 6, 2017 | North Korea Is on Investors’ Radar

Thursday’s moderate selloff provided a refreshing breeze for bears, but it won’t mean much if they can’t extend the decline for a second straight day. The Dow fell 158 points but would need to fall a further 162 points to damage the bullish look of the hourly chart. The precise number is 21159, and if […]

July 5, 2017 | One-Decision FAANG Stocks Are Too Enticing to Shun for Long

Index futures were quiet Tuesday night ahead of what remains of the holiday-shortened week. The theme du jour has been rotation out of tech and into just about everything else, particularly bank stocks (which have turbocharged their ascent with record share-buybacks). However, this aberrant behavior on the part of fund managers is unlikely to last, […]

July 1, 2017 | ‘Seasonality’ Takes a Licking

With bullish seasonality at gale force ahead of the Fourth of July holiday, expectations were high for a rally on Thursday. Instead, bulls got sandbagged when stocks turned sharply lower ahead of the opening bell.  My hunch is that buyers will turn the tide before the week ends, but I wouldn’t hazard a prediction about […]

June 29, 2017 | Pre-Holiday Hijinx

The broad averages were in good position to turn ugly on Wednesday; instead, they turned sharply higher, probably to steal a march on shell-shocked bears ahead of a five-day holiday blowout. Because Independence Day falls on a Tuesday, trading volume is likely to start ratcheting lower around mid-day Thursday. Expect it to continue falling until Monday’s […]

June 26, 2017 | Nasdaq Produces a Rare Profit for Shorts

For once in a rare change, subscribers actually made money on the short side of QQQ Monday morning, doubling or even tripling their stake in just a couple of hours. Even though QQQ dove hard after trapping bulls on a gap-up opening that we had come prepared to fade, my gut feeling is that buyers […]

June 19, 2017 | Rebound Looks a Tad Too Ambitious

AMZN rallied 49 points off Thursday’s low, peaking a too-coy 25 cents shy of $1000. My gut feeling is that DaBoyz have been a little too ambitious in trying to recoup  the June 9 tech avalanche so quickly. If AMZN runs out of steam as I expect, look for the broad averages to struggle for […]

June 15, 2017 | An Unimpressive Rebound

The broad averages swooned sharply on Thursday, and although they had recouped most of their losses by day’s end, the bounce looked pretty well spent by the end of the day. AMZN, the only bellwether we should care about, looked even less impressive, finishing the session with a $12 loss that left it poised for […]

June 13, 2017 | A Precise Benchmark for Nasdaq Bulls (and Bears)

The FAANG/lunatic stocks have recouped about 40% of last Friday’s mini-crash with two consecutive days of short-squeeze buying. The gains have been relatively modest so far, but this is because bears don’t yet perceive the rally as threatening. That’s exactly the sort of thinking that can cause a weak short-squeeze to gain momentum and turn […]

June 12, 2017 | Steep Plunge Quickly Recouped Is Hallmark of a Late-Stage Bull

The hallmark of a bull market in its final throes is hellish swoons-out-of-nowhere that are quickly recouped. Let’s see if DaBoyz play it by the book this time. They pulled the rug out from under the FAGMA stocks on Friday — Facebook, Apple, Google, Microsoft and Amazon — sending them down between 2.2% and 4% […]

June 9, 2017 | Nasdaq Looks Eager to Drag Stocks Higher

sounded a cautionary note here the other day because the E-Mini S&Ps had topped precisely at a Hidden Pivot target that had been a long time in coming. Even so, the Nasdaq’s intraday charts suggest the FAANG/lunatic stocks that have driven the index higher have been consolidating for yet another push to new record highs. […]

June 1, 2017 | Wall Street Jumps for Joy as Climatistas Mourn

The headline out on Fox at the moment is  ‘A SAD DAY’: World reacts to US pullout from climate agreement. On Wall Street it was a very different story — one of jubilation that culminated in a 135-point rally in the Dow Industrials. In some circles this is the sort of behavior that gives capitalism […]

May 31, 2017 | Bears Look Eager to Capitulate…Again

A week shortened by the Memorial Day holiday produced a session filled with gratuitous price swings that left the broad averages largely unchanged. Even so, shorts were caught in the ringer at the closing bell, suggesting it’s possible the S&Ps will trade at a new all-time high in the early going Thursday. If they end […]

May 30, 2017 | The Death of Volatility? Don’t Bet on It…

Volatility has gone brain-dead, as today’s chart makes clear. What this implies is that ‘everyone’ has bet the opposite or is hedged up the wazoo with puts, calls or straddles against a stock market melt-up or -down. Such an event is inevitable, but not on any time schedule that traders have been able to predict […]

May 24, 2017 | Plunge Protection Team Is No Myth, But Now Is Not It’s Time

Zillionaire Asher Edelman was quoted on ZeroHedge the other day saying he has ‘no doubt’ that the Plunge Protection Team is behind the stock market’s steep rally since the election. With all due respect for Mr. Edelman and others who believe this, it is conspiracist poppycock. Yes, the Plunge Protection Team, which is officially known […]

May 22, 2017 | How Stupid Does the Fed Think We Are?

Betting on inflation has been a lousy gamble for most of the last four decades, even if the Fed has worked tirelessly to convince us otherwise. Talking about tightening has been the Fed’s johnny-one-note theme since the early 1990s, when stimulus applied to extricate the economy from the savings and loan debacle supposedly was going […]

May 18, 2017 | All Eyes on the FAANG/Lunatic Stocks!

I’ve updated my touts for some key FAANG/lunatic stocks with new charts to make clear that they want to go higher, especially AMZN. If this proves to be the case, bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high that Wednesday’s refreshing plunge will resume in earnest as the week draws to a close. Even so, the […]

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