January 18, 2017 | Straddling the Inauguration
If the stock market were to take a hellish dive on Monday, it’s not hard to imagine how the pundits will explain it: a reality check for investors who actually think Trump will be good for America. Of course, any such weakness would have less to do with Trump than with cyclical forces that lie […]
January 16, 2017 | GM’s Chart Suggests U.S. Economy Will Keep on Truckin’
Investors who have been betting heavily on Trump since the election may be starting to wonder whether the stock market has overshot the bounds of their initial optimism. To be sure, this is an insubstantial brick in the proverbial wall of worry that is said to keep bull markets alive. But are the broad averages […]
January 11, 2017 | With DEFCON 3 Imminent, We Remain Bullish
A month of tedious consolidation has set the stock market up for a seemingly likely push higher. The chart shown suggests the Dow rally could reach 20257, or possibly even 21101, over the next month or two. That last number has served as our bull-market lodestone for quite a while, and even a thousand-point dive […]
January 9, 2017 | Why Inflation Is Unlikely to Return
Is it possible that wage inflation is re-emerging in the U.S. after a 35-year hiatus? That’s what the experts seem to believe, but there are good reasons to think they will be wrong. Consider the substantial pay increase that minimum-wage workers received in many cities and states where this issue was on the ballot in […]
January 4, 2017 | DJIA Closing on an Important Target
The Dow Industrials impaled a crucial resistance at 19492 with such force on the final trading day of 2016 that they appeared all but certain to achieve a related target at 21,101 that first appeared here several weeks ago. That’s 1159 points above Wednesday’s closing price. At the rate things are going, the target could […]
January 3, 2017 | Is the Surge in Long-Term Rates Over?
It’s been a while since I’ve updated my forecast for a rise in long-term Treasury rates to 3.409%, a benchmark that sits well above the current rate of around 3.047%. Although the target is still in play (see TYX tout and chart at bottom), I am not suggesting buying the pullback at these levels because […]
December 30, 2016 | Hunkering Down Ahead of January
A longstanding E-Mini S&P target at 2270.00 that we used to predict the spectacular post-election rally and its precise high continues to thwart bulls from making any further headway in 2016. Although we’d been looking to get short near this target toward the end of the week, the futures, true to their nature, have taken […]
December 27, 2016 | Obama’s Incredibly Reckless Parting Shot
With America’s unprecedented abstention from a U.N Security Council vote condemning Israel, Obama has stabbed a steadfast and loyal ally in the back, radically destabilizing the geopolitical world ahead of Trump’s inauguration and setting the stage for possible all-out war in the Middle East. That’s quite a feat for a lame-duck president who had already […]
December 20, 2016 | Bears Reap 25 Hours of Pain for Each Hour of Pleasure
There has been precious little buying power behind the TrumpSanta rally these last few days, but the selling has been even feebler. The net result has been a slow, steady waft higher that has not quite recouped what was lost in just two hours of selling on Friday. If you do the math, you can […]
December 18, 2016 | Real Hope and Change?
If traders should awaken on January 3 in an inexplicably downbeat mood, the new year could begin with a thud. It wouldn’t be the first time a jubilant December gave way to a sullen January. Whatever happens, there’s no reason to think the stock market will weaken significantly between now and December 30, the final […]
December 17, 2016 | Gold Bull Vanishing One Day at a Time
With just one more moderate selloff, gold will have given up 90% of the $300 gain it achieved in the first half of 2016. We’ve been using a downside target just above $1100 as a minimum price objective since shortly after bullion spiked on election night. That turns out to have been one of the […]
December 14, 2016 | Stocks, T-Bonds at a Tipping Point
Tuesday’s close was a cliffhanger of sorts, since the E-Mini S&P futures had slightly exceeded a major Hidden Pivot rally target before the session ended. Such is the clarity of the target that even the mere three-point overshoot that has occurred so far has tipped the odds in favor of bulls over the near term. […]
December 6, 2016 | A Warning to Crude-Oil Bulls
My latest crude oil tout is lengthy and detailed because it is important that we get it right. For if the long, powerful rally from January’s lows in the mid-$30s is near an end, then so is the spike in long-term Treasury yields; the sell-off in gold and silver; the ageless, stock-market bull; talk of […]
December 4, 2016 | Data Due Out This Week Will Offer a Detailed Snapshot of the Economy
Data due out this week will offer an accurate snapshot of the economy as Trump takes the reins from Obama. The most important news will concern mortgage applications, a key indicator of re-fi activity that is critical to maintaining household liquidity in our moribund economy. Car-sale data scheduled for release on Thursday will tell us […]
November 29, 2016 | A Consumer Vote of Confidence for Trump?
Many of those who voted for Hillary have been scratching their heads wondering why the stock market has performed so well since the election. Will consumer confidence numbers for November due out on Wednesday show that consumers in general, and not just voters, are more optimistic about the economy’s likely direction under President Trump in […]
November 21, 2016 | ‘Dow 20,000 Fever’ Not Far Off?
The Dow Industrials were feeling their oats Monday, forging higher ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. At the intraday peak the Indoos were just 39 points shy of the 19000 threshold. This round-number benchmark undoubtedly has exerted a magnetic pull up till now, but we might expect it to turn at least mildly resistant as buyers […]
November 19, 2016 | Waiting for a Verdict on the Economy
I’ve spotlighted copper in today’s list of touts, since it has the ability to tell us whether the U.S. economy is about to pick up in any significant way. There are many reasons for the stock market to have rallied on the election of Donald Trump. First and foremost is that, with the backing of […]
November 17, 2016 | Ready to Have Your Expectations Managed?
Thursday will be a big day for the kind of manufactured ‘news’ that can move markets. Fed clown-in-chief (and imminent lame duck) Yellen is scheduled to speak at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, presumably to obfuscate whatever genius plan the central bank is thought to be hatching for December. You can bet the news media will be […]
November 16, 2016 | Can ‘Trump Rally’ Overcome Severe Headwinds?
There are good reasons for the stock market to have celebrated Trump’s victory with a strong rally. For one, a Republican Congress will be able cut taxes on small businesses, particularly the biggest, most job-asphyxiating tax of them all — Obamacare — when legislators convene in January. With respect to protectionism, only Trump’s detractors, including […]
November 14, 2016 | Drudge Report Could Use Some Help
It’s starting to feel like we’ll be bombarded with exit-poll ephemera until Campaign 2020 begins in earnest the day after Trump is sworn into office. The news media have become so addicted to political gossip, and to foisting it off as hard news, that they may have lost their ability to discern what constitutes […]
November 10, 2016 | Permabears: Don’t Get in the Way of This Rally!
U.S. stocks are headed much higher, impelled chiefly by better business conditions for everyone under a radically new Washington regime. Trump the supposed protectionist is about to rewrite the manual for trade agreements. Forget the high-tariff buzz — he’s going to do deals that everyone will see as win-win. And even before he flushes Obamacare […]
November 9, 2016 | A ‘Trump Bull Market’ Brewing?
Will Trump be able to reinvigorate the economy? I wouldn’t have imagined it possible were it not for the fact that T-Bond prices have broken down so severely. This has sent yields on long-term Treasury’s soaring toward 3%, up from a low of 1.1% in July. I still see deflation as the force that will […]
November 8, 2016 | Stocks All Revved Up, but Why?
Stocks seemed poised to rally on Wednesday, presumably anticipating a Clinton victory. Investors have no particular reason to celebrate the victory of either candidate, but that is unlikely to slow the runaway freight train that has been gathering momentum since Comey’s most recent ‘all-clear’ for Clinton. As we went to press shortly after 8:00 p.m., […]
November 7, 2016 | Trump’s No Long-Shot, But Get Odds If You Bet on Him
I’ve believed for some time that Trump would win, if for no other reason than that most Americans despise the news media that has conspired so brazenly to sink him even more than they do politicians. Nothing would rebuke the scumbags who serve up the “news” quite as powerfully and lastingly as a Trump victory. […]
November 6, 2016 | Option Volatilities Imply Huge Post-Election Swings
Stocks could swing wildly once the election results are known, and those who make book on such things, effectively selling “insurance” against the unknown, aren’t taking any chances. It will cost investors an arm and a leg to straddle the bet. How much? Here’s a post from ‘Mavin’ in the Rick’s Picks chat room that […]