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February 16, 2017 | The Yellow Flag Is Out

The Dow Industrial Average now sits within 429 points of a potentially very important ‘Hidden Pivot’ target at 21,049 that was first signaled when the Dow hit 18675 back in November. The target is derived from purely technical calculations, and when I first aired it my gut feeling was that it seemed unlikely to be […]

February 14, 2017 | Yellen’s Idea of a Heated Economy

Yellen aggressively talked her book Tuesday, asserting that the economy looks so hunky-dory that those rate hikes she keeps promising are absolutely, definitely, positively coming. Let’s see if she changes her tune when the housing and auto sectors turn down, as appears all but certain. Substantially higher mortgage rates coupled with rising prices caused by […]

February 13, 2017 | $EUR/USD – Euro/Dollar Crossrate (Last:1.05933)

Banksters and others with a stake in the euro shouldn’t get their hopes too high, since the long-term charts point unambiguously to a target just below 82 cents (see inset). There will be rallies, of course, since sellers have been piling onto this no-brainer trade in such preponderance that there will occasionally be no one […]

February 8, 2017 | Inflation Ahead? Yeah, Sure.

The inflation drumbeat has grown more insistent lately, stoked by Fed blather about raising rates to prevent the economy from overheating. Yeah, sure. I’m not buying any of it, particularly statistics that purport to show inflation even in Europe.  An epic deflation still awaits and eventually will be triggered by the implosion of a largely […]

February 4, 2017 | Where Have All the Contrarians Gone?

It looks like two straight days without pain is about as much comfort as bears are ever going to get.  The market forged steadily higher on Friday, thumbing its nose at my crazy suggestion to fade any rally. I’d written here Thursday night that if the payroll number came within 25,000 of the 175,000-job estimate, […]

February 3, 2017 | Fade the Non-Farm-Payroll Lunatics

Although stocks spent most of the week churning, nothing seems to be able to bring them down for more than a day or two. Unemployment and non-farm payrolls numbers will be released Friday morning, and although economists and Wall Street pretend to care about this fundamentally meaningless data, it’s hard to imagine the broad averages […]

February 1, 2017 | Short Into This Craziness?

The Dow veered north in the final hours of Tuesday’s session, reversing the considerable momentum of a two-and-a-half day selloff to end the day 90 points off its sinkhole lows.  The S&Ps did even better, carving out a v-shaped bottom that had bears once again on the ropes at the final bell. Is that the […]

January 30, 2017 | Is the Selloff Just Another Fake-Out?

Use the red line to determine whether Monday morning’s steep selloff was just a shakeout. If DIA ends the day above that line, a ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot,’ then I can practically guarantee you that the thrust will continue to at least 202.35, the ‘D’ target of the pattern. For those who are familiar with my […]

January 29, 2017 | It’s Not Bulls Who Are Driving Stocks Higher…

DaBoyz were in commando mode Sunday night, trying to determine through stealth, trial-and-error and well-honed instinct the level at which they might hope to dry up sellers for a short-squeeze attempt.  Let it be said, however, that the ratcheting rally we saw last week enjoyed no bullish mandate, only sporadic buying power supplied mostly by […]

January 25, 2017 | The Trump Rally, Phase II

The stock market’s likely behavior following Friday’s presidential inauguration seemed like a coin-toss bet, but I guessed wrong. The DIA weekly puts we bought on Friday for prices ranging from 0.38 to 0.44 have gotten snuffed by the most powerful rally since the first days of the new year. We know exactly where the E-Mini […]

January 23, 2017 | Putin Opens Door for U.S. Alliance Against Terrorists

In conjunction with a massive air strike by Russian bombers, and with Donald Trump’s inaugural promise to eradicate radical Islam, Vladimir Putin has ordered Iran/Hezbollah forces out of Syria. This bold stroke required no treaties, U.N. speeches or shuttle diplomacy — only the calculation that Iran would not dare get in the way of U.S.and […]

January 22, 2017 | Betting Against Chimpanzees

With the broad averages in an extremely tedious slog sideways since mid-December, it has been very difficult to get short. A nettlesome problem is that even relatively feeble head-fakes are pushing into record-high territory. We got short anyway on Friday, taking a small speculative position in DIA puts. This is a post-inauguration play if you […]

January 19, 2017 | The Good News, and the Bad…

Yet another day of gratuitous, grueling ups and downs, punctuated around mid-session by a swoon that had been nearly recouped by the time we went to press. If traders are thinking what I think they are thinking, they are expecting the stock market to find direction — possibly with a vengeance — once Trump’s inauguration […]

January 18, 2017 | Straddling the Inauguration

If the stock market were to take a hellish dive on Monday, it’s not hard to imagine how the pundits will explain it: a reality check for investors who actually think Trump will be good for America.  Of course, any such weakness would have less to do with Trump than with cyclical forces that lie […]

January 16, 2017 | GM’s Chart Suggests U.S. Economy Will Keep on Truckin’

Investors who have been betting heavily on Trump since the election may be starting to wonder whether the stock market has overshot the bounds of their initial optimism. To be sure, this is an insubstantial brick in the proverbial wall of worry that is said to keep bull markets alive. But are the broad averages […]

January 11, 2017 | With DEFCON 3 Imminent, We Remain Bullish

A month of tedious consolidation has set the stock market up for a seemingly likely push higher. The chart shown suggests the Dow rally could reach 20257, or possibly even 21101, over the next month or two. That last number has served as our bull-market lodestone for quite a while, and even a thousand-point dive […]

January 9, 2017 | Why Inflation Is Unlikely to Return

Is it possible that wage inflation is re-emerging in the U.S. after a 35-year hiatus? That’s what the experts seem to believe, but there are  good reasons to think they will be wrong. Consider the substantial pay increase that minimum-wage workers received in many cities and states where this issue was on the ballot in […]

January 4, 2017 | DJIA Closing on an Important Target

The Dow Industrials impaled a crucial resistance at 19492 with such force on the final trading day of 2016 that they appeared all but certain to achieve a related target at 21,101 that first appeared here several weeks ago. That’s 1159 points above Wednesday’s closing price. At the rate things are going, the target could […]

January 3, 2017 | Is the Surge in Long-Term Rates Over?

It’s been a while since I’ve updated my forecast for a rise in long-term Treasury rates to 3.409%, a benchmark that sits well above the current rate of around 3.047%. Although the target is still in play (see TYX tout and chart at bottom), I am not suggesting buying the pullback at these levels because […]

December 30, 2016 | Hunkering Down Ahead of January

A longstanding E-Mini S&P target at 2270.00 that we used to predict the spectacular post-election rally and its precise high continues to thwart bulls from making any further headway in 2016.  Although we’d been looking to get short near this target toward the end of the week, the futures, true to their nature, have taken […]

December 27, 2016 | Obama’s Incredibly Reckless Parting Shot

With America’s unprecedented abstention from a U.N Security Council vote condemning Israel, Obama has stabbed a steadfast and loyal ally in the back, radically destabilizing the geopolitical world ahead of Trump’s inauguration and setting the stage for possible all-out war in the Middle East.  That’s quite a feat for a lame-duck president who had already […]

December 20, 2016 | Bears Reap 25 Hours of Pain for Each Hour of Pleasure

There has been precious little buying power behind the TrumpSanta rally these last few days, but the selling has been even feebler. The net result has been a slow, steady waft higher that has not quite recouped what was lost in just two hours of selling on Friday. If you do the math, you can […]

December 18, 2016 | Real Hope and Change?

If traders should awaken on January 3 in an inexplicably downbeat mood, the new year could begin with a thud.  It wouldn’t be the first time a jubilant December gave way to a sullen January. Whatever happens, there’s no reason to think the stock market will weaken significantly between now and December 30, the final […]

December 17, 2016 | Gold Bull Vanishing One Day at a Time

With just one more moderate selloff, gold will have given up 90% of the $300 gain it achieved in the first half of 2016. We’ve been using a downside target just above $1100 as a minimum price objective since shortly after bullion spiked on election night. That turns out to have been one of the […]

December 14, 2016 | Stocks, T-Bonds at a Tipping Point

Tuesday’s close was a cliffhanger of sorts, since the E-Mini S&P futures had slightly exceeded a major Hidden Pivot rally target before the session ended. Such is the clarity of the target that even the mere three-point overshoot that has occurred so far has tipped the odds in favor of bulls over the near term.  […]

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