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November 16, 2017 | ‘Fly-or-Die’ Jeopardy in Effect

The Dow was up 187 points Thursday, but the rally was noticeably lacking in exuberance. Most of it occurred on a gap-up opening in the early minutes of the session (see inset), rendering it valueless to traders who began the day looking for a way to board the next rally. Perhaps they’ll get their wish […]

November 15, 2017 | Are the Big Guys Tapped Out?

It’s hard to imagine the news getting much sunnier than it was for the earnings cycle just reported. What will Amazon, Apple, Google and the other FANG stocks do for an encore? More to the point, what will they do for the next three months? At these very high prices, the task of rotating institutional […]

November 14, 2017 | Bored? Be Careful What You Wish for…

Elsewhere on the page I’ve predicted a boring stretch for the stock market because AAPL for a rare change has the blahs. This probably won’t last much longer — it never does — but there’s no way the broad averages are headed higher as long as Apple shares are taking even baby steps lower.  If […]

November 13, 2017 | Fed Hoping for ‘Bad’ Inflation News

[I am airing this for a second day so that readers are well prepared for Wednesday’s CPI data. It could significantly impact U.S. and global markets.]  Bloomberg News has been drum-rolling Wednesday’ scheduled release of CPI data, since a report suggesting inflation has remained subdued will complicate the Fed’s task of convincing the world more […]

November 8, 2017 | If Hillary Had Won, the Dow Would Still Be Trading Above 23,000

A year after Trump defeated Hillary, the stock market has had its biggest post-election run-up since 1945, when FDR was re-elected to a short-lived fourth term. Of course, Trump had no more to do with the current rally than Roosevelt or his successor, Harry S Truman, did with the post-War surge in shares. The stock […]

November 7, 2017 | Dragging Four Defenders a Few Extra Yards

I’ve left my wild-eyed projections for some FAANMG stocks listed below unchanged, since the group shows no sign of slowing down. Even when these stocks are merely marking time they always make a little headway, like a running back grinding out a few extra yards with four defenders on his back.  AMZN, for one, seems […]

November 2, 2017 | That’s Entertainment!

It took the Indoos six days of chop to consolidate for yesterday’s mellow breakout to a marginal new high, but the rally appeared nonetheless to be strong enough to end the week on an upswing. There couldn’t be many bears left at this point, least of all those who have put their money where their […]

October 29, 2017 | This Permabear Is Still Quite Bullish

AMZN, our most important stock-market bellwether, topped on Friday just 36 cents from an ostensibly important rally target I’d sent out to subscribers the night before. Much as I’d like to enthuse about the possibility that this will mark an important top in the broad averages, I’ve dispensed with the usual hubris to focus instead […]

October 26, 2017 | A FAANG Blowoff? Not So Fast…

AMZN and GOOG have exploded skyward in after-hours trading Thursday, fueled by earnings that evidently exceeded the expectations of the usual clueless hacks who forecast them.  It’s tempting to think this is the blowoff that so many of us have been anticipating for…years. More likely, however, is that both stocks are headed significantly higher.  Check […]

October 25, 2017 | A Rare Day as Stocks Get Pummeled for a Few Hours

Just when it was starting to look like the stock market couldn’t go down, the Dow Industrials sold off 210 points to start the day. By the end of the session the broad averages had recouped nearly half of their earlier losses, but enough technical damage had already been done to suggest that weakness will […]

October 23, 2017 | A Warning to Deflation’s Skeptics

A recent Morning Line drew flak from one Rantly McTirade, a lurker who posts occasionally at Rick’s Picks under that pseudonym.  ‘Rantly’, while evidently impressed by the accuracy of my technical forecasts, took me to task for ‘mouth-farting’ and ‘pontificating’ about some of the big themes, most particularly a deflationary bust that I have long viewed as inevitable. I responded […]

October 22, 2017 | Melt-Up Scenario Gaining Converts

The melt-up story is getting increasing play — and who’s to deny it? Even bulls seem to find it a little scary, though, since, after the melt-up, what then? I’m not sure which guru in the fever swamp is hyping the highest target for the Dow Industrials, but I’m on record below with 25680.  (I could […]

October 19, 2017 | Will ‘The Sign of the Bear’ Trigger?

The broad averages swooned on Thursday after coming within inches of some important Hidden Pivot rally targets subscribers have been using for a while. Buyers looked poised at the close to ram these impediments into oblivion come Friday, but I won’t be ready to throw in the towel until I’ve seen another day or two […]

October 18, 2017 | Bulls Will Face Some ‘Hidden’ Obstacles on Thursday

DIA and the E-Mini S&Ps both topped on Wednesday just millimeters from important-looking rally targets that subscribers have used in recent weeks to remain comfortably on the right side of the trend. Although we never expect to nail the elusive Mother of All Tops with these targets, it is quite common for them to repel […]

October 17, 2017 | A Simple Indicator to Predict the Market’s Next Big Move

I’ve highlighted the increasingly bullish look of two crucial bellwethers, AMZN and AAPL, in the last two issues of Rick’s Picks, since breakaway rallies in either or both would likely energize the broad averages for a move to new record highs. If you want a simple green-light indicator, use a close in the latter stock above […]

October 16, 2017 | AAPL Buyers Are Back, Leading the Charge

With Apple, the world’s most valuable publicly trade company, strongly on the move again, bears had better be extra cautious shorting into the rally regardless of which vehicle they choose.  In the latest updates to my touts (see below) I’ve identified some high-odds spots to try fading the trend, but only with very tight stops […]

October 15, 2017 | Yellen’s Huge Mistake

In a speech Sunday morning in Washington, Federal Reserve munchkin-in-chief Janet Yellen wondered why inflation has remained so subdued. Only an egghead with a PhD in economics could be puzzled by this, given that it takes practically unlimited quantities of fresh borrowing merely to sustain a convincing illusion of inflation, never mind create real economic growth.  The […]

October 12, 2017 | Yellen’s Chance to Crap Up Your Weekend

Friday could be challenging, since Her Nibs, Fed obfuscator-in-chief Janet Yellen, will be giving a speech on Sunday morning.  According to a press release, she “will join People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, and European Central Bank Vice-President Vitor Constancio to speak on ‘The Global Economy: Prospects for […]

October 11, 2017 | Dow 50,000, Anyone?

The Dow Industrials edged past a rally target on Wednesday that we had expected to offer more resistance.  It is a longstanding tradition for Ricks Picks subscribers to get short at Hidden Pivot resistance points as compelling as this one was; however, in the end, over the duration of a bull market that has been chugging along […]

October 8, 2017 | When Getting It Wrong Pays Off

There are some potentially important rally targets in some popular vehicles we track. Although we try to avoid getting seduced by the prospect of catching the Mother of All Tops, laying out tightly stopped shorts at key Hidden Pivot resistance points will always be too great a temptation to pass up, especially since these trades […]

October 5, 2017 | Latest Bull Run Has Yet to Overtake Cleveland Indians

The Dow Industrials rose on Thursday for an eighth straight day — a rare feat, although not nearly as rare as the Cleveland Indians’ 22 straight victories this past season. In fact, the Dow has had nearly a dozen streaks lasting eight days.  What is the significance of this latest one? Mainly, that nearly everyone […]

October 4, 2017 | Boeing Refutes the Permabear’s Creed

It’s been a struggle lately trying to find something meaningful to say about the stock market from one day to the next. It keeps going higher is all, and you can pick your reasons. Enchanted with the idea of Dow 30000? Then cross your fingers and hope Trump finds a way to ent1ice all that […]

October 3, 2017 | In Glue-Sniffing Mode, Rally Is Now Parabolic

Stocks have been in glue-sniffing mode lately, ascending so steeply as to be all but untradable. The Dow’s chart (inset) shows why. Notice how the Indoos opened with a gap higher on each of the last two days. Wednesday’s Whoopee Cushion leap at the opening bell racked up about 90% of the day’s gains, leaving […]

October 2, 2017 | October, and We’re All Quite Bullish, Right?

Are we unanimously agreed that, on any given day, odds are quite good that the stock market will continue to move higher? It sure feels that way, regardless of whether one is a hardcore bull or a diehard permabear. But that’s the way we’re supposed to feel come October, right? If you are among the […]

October 1, 2017 | Profiting from Getting in Harm’s Way

The broad averages proved nearly untradeable last week — a series of tiny daily gains punctuated in each instance by a nasty swoon.  DaBoyz were clearly intent on marking up stocks to end the quarter, and woe to any bear who got in their way.  We did, very briefly, with very tightly stopped shorts in […]

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