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September 20, 2017 | Fed-Speak Translated into Plain Truth

Talk is cheap, never moreso than when it comes from the mouths of the charlatans and quacks who run the Federal Reserve. Their latest “plan” is to start selling assets from the Fed’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October; tightening perhaps 25 basis before 2018; then tightening three more times next year.  Translation: We will […]

September 19, 2017 | Braced for…Nothing

Everyone knows the Fed will not be announcing any imminent tightening, but that won’t stop traders from going wacky in the minutes after the widely anticipated FOMC “news” comes at 2:00 p.m. As always, the central bank will leave enough room for the nitwads who presume to read Fed tea leaves to infer that there’s […]

September 17, 2017 | Why Bears Will Fair Poorly When the Bear Market Finally Hits

I wrote here earlier that when the stock market finally tops, even those who saw it coming will not look like geniuses. Mr. Market always has a surprise up his sleeve, even for those with stellar track records calling lesser turns. For gurus, most vexatious of all has been predicting the dramatic and sustained upturn […]

September 15, 2017 | The Lighter Side of Kim Jong Un-Sane

  You’ve got to hand it to Fox News for daring to show us the lighter side of Kim Jong Un. The photo (click on inset to enlarge) is featured this evening at Fox online, and one can only surmise that the Korean dictator and his generals are having great fun, whatever it is they […]

September 14, 2017 | AAPL, AMZN Temporarily Out-of-Synch

AMZN was up and AAPL was down, but these two key bull-market bellwethers should be back in bullish gear soon, presumably after the shakedown in AAPL has run its course.  My target for the stock is 168.33, almost $9 above the current price. Challenging as that may seem, the stock is capable of covering the […]

September 12, 2017 | One of These Days, the Dollar….

I’ve returned my focus once again to AAPL as a key market bellwether, even though the stock spent Tuesday in violent conniptions.  Our other telltale is the U.S. dollar, which has rallied moderately this week, although not yet enough for us to infer with confidence that the nasty correction since January is over.  One thing’s […]

September 11, 2017 | A Reality Check for Permabears Hoping for The Big One

The chart shown (click on inset) has been my reality check for more than a year, since it makes a strong technical case that the Dow Industrials will get to at least 23317 no matter what I think.  The good news is that a move to that number would amount to a rally of just 5.7% — […]

September 10, 2017 | The Fat Lady Is Warming Up Her Pipes

Gold and T-Bonds are rising while stocks have churned or fallen. All that remains to confirm that the REALLY big picture has changed for investments and the U.S. economy is for the dollar to get in bullish gear. That would be the Fat Lady’s final aria, as far as I’m concerned, and I’m looking for […]

September 8, 2017 | Bullion Good Guys Finally Win a Round

Gold appears, finally, to be breaking out. I’ve noted certain technical details concerning this below, but without getting too deeply immersed in them, I’ll say that the longer-term charts are now projecting upside to at least 1474, about $117 above the current price.  It will take a little more than that, however — specifically, a […]

September 5, 2017 | Are AAPL and Bitcoin about to Feel the Wrath of ‘Matt’s Curse’?

Two bubble vehicles, among others, got sacked on Tuesday: AAPL shares and the Bitcoin Index. Although odds favor their recouping the losses in the days ahead, that is no reason for bulls not to worry. For in fact, both peaked almost precisely at the ‘secondary’ Hidden Pivot, 25% shy of their respective rally targets. A […]

September 4, 2017 | Mr. Market Makes Ready to Cripple and Maim

I’ve been rhythming a few key stocks, looking for them to hit rally targets simultaneously to signal a possible end to the bull market begun eight-and-a-half years ago. AAPL has been number one on my watchlist ever since an erstwhile bellwether, AMZN, dropped out of the race with a plunge from a targeted high at […]

August 29, 2017 | The Dow’s Next 418 Points

The Dow finished with a modest gain of 57 points on Tuesday, but it took a 190-point short squeeze reversal off a weak, deftly engineered opening to accomplish this.  Much as I’d like to diss the rally, noting that it failed to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, it has enough good […]

August 28, 2017 | Traders Pretend to Panic as Kim’s Missile Streaks Over Japan

North Korea’s whack-job dictator has reportedly lobbed a missile over Japan, causing index futures to plunge Monday evening. So far, DaBoyz are acting almost as crazy as Mr. Kim, treating this unprecedented act of aggression as a buying opportunity. They’ve pulled their bids, allowing stocks to fall steeply enough to discount any outcome short of […]

August 27, 2017 | Reason for Investors to Be Hopeful — But Also Terrified

Last week, I published a copper chart here that could be used to justify a very bullish outlook for the stock market — for a move as high, even, as Dow 30,000. However, my latest E-Mini S&P tout raises the possibility that stocks have already begun what could turn out to be the worst bear […]

August 24, 2017 | Have DaBoyz Already Left for the Hamptons?

Has Wall Street already left for the Hamptons?  Although there are still six trading days remaining until Labor Day, the markets seem to have gone comatose earlier than usual this year.  Typically they wait until the Tuesday or Wednesday preceding the holiday before flatlining. This time, though, with no particularly interesting themes developing in the […]

August 22, 2017 | Will Hindenburg, Eclipse Turn Out to Be Duds?

With this week’s solar eclipse and the recent flashing of yet another Hindenburg Omen, traders should probably be braced for Armageddon.  Alas, the stock market has a way of thwarting preparedness by boring to death those who would attempt it. And if millions of traders are indeed ready for the worst at this moment, you […]

August 20, 2017 | Trump as Caligula

Trump’s days seem numbered, raising the possibility that the bull market’s last hurrah will be in short-lived celebration of Mike Pence’s ascent to the presidency.  When Congress’ summer recess ends, Trump will face bipartisan hostility, possibly with enough Republican votes to end his tenure in office.  Is impeachment possible?  Presumably yes, since the details of […]

August 18, 2017 | A New Mood Descends on America — and on Wall Street

And now we know that there are things impacting negatively on the stock market besides war threats from Kim Jong Un.  I hesitate to infer that Wall Street’s obsidian heart is somehow responding to the piddling trauma of Charlottesville and to the spectacle of the news media’s continuing, all-out effort to destroy Trump. The editorialists […]

August 15, 2017 | Three Key Stocks Turn Higher

Three important stocks — AMZN, Boeing and AAPL — have all rebounded sharply from within a hair of targeted correction lows. How far will they get? The answer seems clearest in AAPL, which looks to be a shoe-in to reach a 168.33 Hidden Pivot target that lies $7 above current levels. It is most unlikely […]

August 14, 2017 | Will Wall Street Keep Its Cool if Kim Nukes L.A.?

Kim Jong Un was nowhere to be found Monday night, prompting headline speculation that he was preparing to launch a new missile to celebrate a public holiday. Wall Street was unfazed as always, thumbing its nose at the threat of nuclear war with a 135-point rally in the Dow Industrials. Talk about attitude!  In fact, […]

August 13, 2017 | This Crisis, Most Unfortunately, Is Different

The suspense is chilling.  On Friday, my two top market bellwethers, AMZN and Boeing, came down precisely to their respective thresholds of menace before rallying out of the hole. Shortly thereafter, North Korea’s nut-job dictator one-upped Wall Street’s premature and unwarranted sigh of relief, announcing that his missile launchers were on standby. All of us, […]

August 10, 2017 | One Way to Tell Whether This Selloff Is the Start of the Big One

Thursday’s selloff left some important questions about the health of the bull market dangling. Two stocks — AMZN and Boeing — could tell us as early as Friday morning whether investors have serious reason to worry. Both came within inches of Hidden Pivot correction targets after getting sold down hard. If the targets are decisively […]

August 9, 2017 | Calculating the Risk of War

I once joked here that it would take an outbreak of nuclear war to slow down the buying that has impelled this bull market relentlessly higher since 2009. We now know that even a credible threat of a nuclear attack on U.S. soil is not sufficient to deter buyers for long.  Late in Wednesday’s session, […]

August 8, 2017 | Bulls Getting Smacked Down with Increasing Regularity

Index futures were continuing to sell off Tuesday night after having peaked intraday at levels where we’d anticipated a top of possible importance. Specifically, I’d flagged two rally targets that lay, respectively, at 2486.75 and 2489.50. Together, these Hidden Pivot resistance points stopped a strong rally in the first half of the session at 2488.50, […]

August 7, 2017 | AMZN’s Message to Bears

Elsewhere on the home page, I’ve conceded that projecting lower lows for AMZN may have been wishful thinking.  The stock’s 100-point plunge from a 1083.31 top that I’d predicted to-the-penny here seven weeks earlier had the potential to stop the bull market dead in its tracks. Alas, it would appear that permabears will get no […]

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