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May 29, 2024 | What Completes a Phase Transition?

Martin Armstrong

Martin Arthur Armstrong is current chairman and founder of Armstrong Economics. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.


CRUDE Y 1997 forecast

What completes a phase transition? Simple — capital inflow to the United States.

For example, when oil was in the $10 range in 1998, we forecast that oil would rise to $100 by 2007.15. In court, the Department of Energy wanted us to develop a model, but Alan Cohen of Goldman Sachs blocked that project. At the time, there were comments that we were crazy, that the world economy would collapse with $100 oil. That is an opinion that proved worthless. It also demonstrated that the vast majority of people are clueless as to how things function. Crude oil absolutely had to rise to make it worthwhile to create other alternative technologies. You have electric cars today only because of that price action.

Capital flows MUST push the dollar higher and that will then set the monetary reform and dethrone the dollar. Until that happens, things do not shift. Eventually, China and India will rise because the West will destroy their economies with this constant attack of rising taxes to keep their failed system in motion. That is unsustainable.

ECM 932 1998 2002


You MUST move to extremes to create the change. Change will never come without motivation. Crude oil fell from 1997 to nearly $10 going into that ECM turning point in 1998. Our forecast for $100 was met. Yes, oil exceeded that intraday; it could not close any year above $100, stopping at the $98-$99 level. That was the FALSE MOVE – the drop to $10 into 1998 had everyone believing oil was going back to a few dollars. On the upside, all we have heard is that the dollar will crash because it is losing the fight against oil. Opinion ALWAYS mirrors the current trend.

ECM Wave 2020 2028 Pi

The Big Bang of 2015.75 was merely the start of a wild period that we are embarking upon. Our most recent date of May 7 indicated that geopolitical troubles will continue to shift capital, but capital will be coming into the US for a few more years until that next phase transition takes place. We are in wave 935 of the Economic Confidence Model, which does not end until 2028.65. If you do not see the world unfold before your eyes, you will not have the confidence to invest or trade. That is just human nature.

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May 29th, 2024

Posted In: Armstrong Economics

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