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February 9, 2024 | Mexico Dethrones China as America’s Largest Exporter

Martin Armstrong

Martin Arthur Armstrong is current chairman and founder of Armstrong Economics. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.

World Trade US China

Based on data from the US Commerce Department, China is no longer America’s top supplier of goods. Imported goods from Mexico rose by around 5% from 2022 to 2023, totaling over $475 billion. Mexico has not surpassed China in exports to the US since 2002, marking a drastic shift in overall trade as tensions continue to rise between the US and China.

Chinese imports tanked by 20% over a one-year period to $427 billion. Some may point to the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement that permits duty-free trade between the three nations, while others are citing the supply chain disruptions post-COVID that caused many companies to seek closer manufacturers. The real issue here is that the US and China are barely able to maintain diplomatic ties due to Taiwan.

China Holding US Treasuries 2010 2022

America claims to respect the One China policy but has repeatedly stated it would not hesitate to go to war with China in the event of an invasion. The US has begun arming Taiwan and routinely conducts military drills in the Straight. China began offloading US debt not long ago as it would be utterly foolish to purchase debt from a nation that has no intention of paying it back. It would be akin to pulling a gun on someone and asking for money to pull the trigger.

We are looking at SELECTIVE DEFAULTS on sovereign debt as governments will simply stop repaying anyone who opposes them. World trade has transformed due to this major crisis, so rest assured that this was not a one-year hiccup as both nations seek to lessen their reliance on one another. War tends to support the dollar and the first two world wars are what made the dollar the reserve currency. War is completely and utterly inevitable due to the debt crisis as there is no way out.

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February 9th, 2024

Posted In: Armstrong Economics

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