- the source for market opinions


September 24, 2023 | One Last Turn of the Screw, then REAL Pain

Rick Ackerman

Rick Ackerman is the editor of Rick’s Picks, an online service geared to traders of stocks, options, index futures and commodities. His detailed trading strategies have appeared since the early 1990s in Black Box Forecasts, a newsletter he founded that originally was geared to professional option traders. Barron’s once labeled him an “intrepid trader” in a headline that alluded to his key role in solving a notorious pill-tampering case. He received a $200,000 reward when a conviction resulted, and the story was retold on TV’s FBI: The Untold Story. His professional background includes 12 years as a market maker in the pits of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader.

The bullish gap on the chart holds ominous implications for the global economy, since it removes almost all doubt that interest rates on U.S. Treasury Bonds are headed significantly higher. The rally looks nearly certain to reach 4.81%, the target of the pattern shown.  The red line through which the gap occurred last Thursday is a ‘Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance,’ and it is where we look to get a firm handle on trend strength. When it is penetrated as easily and decisively as it was last week, this almost invariably results in a continuation of the trend to the target, in this case a 48.14 level that corresponds to a 4.81% rate. A tradeable corollary is that a swoon to the green line would be merely corrective, and that bond bears, far from being scared out of their positions, could double down on their bets with confidence.  The equivalent rate for the Ten-Year Note would be 4.68%.

Historical Downturn

You should jot those numbers down, since they will allow you to tune out the din of pundits and economists arguing about how high rates are likely to go. With the economies of China and Europe already sinking into recession, and the U.S. about to do so when the inevitable bear market in stocks gets rolling, another turn of the interest-rate screw threatens a downturn that will be one for the history books.  It will feature above all a strengthening dollar that will not only catch economist and policymakers by surprise, but also crush everyone who owes dollars. A ruinous debt deflation is coming, and it will make us nostalgic for the pesky consumer inflation that has ruled our economic lives since the wildly reckless credit-stimulus of the Covid years.

STAY INFORMED! Receive our Weekly Recap of thought provoking articles, podcasts, and radio delivered to your inbox for FREE! Sign up here for the Weekly Recap.

September 24th, 2023

Posted In: Rick's Picks

Post a Comment:

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

All Comments are moderated before appearing on the site


This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.