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January 9, 2024 | Why We Should Not Blame the Federal Reserve

Martin Armstrong

Martin Arthur Armstrong is current chairman and founder of Armstrong Economics. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.


Fed Ship in STorm

One piece of analysis commonly misconstrued is the Federal Reserve’s role in the nation’s economic health. Even those who have the ability to piece together other variables that often go unnoticed commonly point their finger at the Federal Reserve. No one is factoring in the largest driver of inflation – WAR – nor are they factoring in the three main pillars of government debauchery (war, taxation, government spending) that the Fed cannot control.

Federal Reserve 12 Branches

They never look at the history of central banks and how Congress has been manipulating the law to alter the Fed’s purpose. If there was a single interest rate and one policy set in Washington, why do we even have branches of the Fed if they no longer act independently? When the Fed was created, the branches managed internal domestic capital flows. Each branch was independent, and they would lower or raise the interest rate in their jurisdiction depending on the flow of money. Too much cash? They lowered the rate. Not enough cash? They raised it. This was all before Keynesian Economics when the interest rate became the tool to manipulate our demand.

The San Francisco earthquake of 1906 created the Panic of 1907, which caused capital to rush from East to West. This created a shortage of cash in New York and led to bank failures. Hence, the Federal Reserve was created with branches to manipulate the internal capital flows – not the Quantity of Money Theory or the demand of the people.

Federal Reserve Restructure 1935Roosevelt Baking Cartoon

Roosevelt usurped all the independence of the Fed and created a Washington monopoly to push his socialist agenda into place. We are hearing the same pitch of equality once again from Biden. The government is supposed to be separate from the Federal Reserve, but the president appoints the chair. The formerly independent central bank that was owned by the bankers to prevent the misuse of taxpayer funds is now under control by the banks only in theory; the reins of power are political.

The Federal Reserve failed to produce inflation while engaging in QE between 2008 and 2019. Most analysts ignore that entirely. If the Fed issued $1 trillion and buys in US Treasuries, I hate to tell you, but it would have ZERO impact. Why? Because debt today is simply cash that pays interest. Once upon a time, you could not borrow against government debt. Thus, it was deemed non-inflationary as long as it could not be used as money. Today, you post bills as collateral to trade futures. The old theories no longer exist in this new, strange world we live in. Hence, all the QE was merely swapping the debt for cash.

Also, consider where the Fed purchases its debt and who purchases US debt. China, for example, is no longer buying US debt due to US-China government relations that the Fed has absolutely no control over. Then, say China sold its debt for cash. The dollar would go offshore, and the domestic money supply would NOT increase. There is a lot more to this game than the simplistic analysis that leads to brainwashing the financial community and investors.

OldTheories Theory Myth r

Jerome Powell has no power over fiscal spending or the deficit. Central banks everywhere are trapped. The central banks in Europe are in FAR worse shape right now. When Powell stood before Congress and subtly criticized the Biden Administration by calling their constant spending “unsustainable,” he was attempting to explain that the central bank could not overpower the government here. The central bank can create elastic money, and it will return to doing so. Private capital is fleeing government debt on a global level.

In the end, the globalist agenda is to default on all national debts, and they will no longer need to bail out the bankers. Welcome to the Decline & Fall of Western Civilization.

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January 9th, 2024

Posted In: Armstrong Economics

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