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December 12, 2023 | Yield Curve Screaming Bear Market in Process

Danielle Park

Portfolio Manager and President of Venable Park Investment Counsel ( Ms Park is a financial analyst, attorney, finance author and regular guest on North American media. She is also the author of the best-selling myth-busting book "Juggling Dynamite: An insider's wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts," and a popular daily financial blog:

The US yield curve’s last 17 months of inversion has been the second longest in history (2-10 curve inversion lengths shown below since 1941 courtesy of The Daily Shot).

Ditto for Canada, where the 2s-10s curve has also been inverted since July 2022.

Only four other times in history have seen this degree of inversion, and except for the summer of 1962, every one preceded a recession. Moreover, these incidents were followed by worse-than-average equity and corporate debt bear markets as government bond prices rose.

See, Canada is in economic decay. Prepare for BoC rate cuts and big returns in this asset class. Here’s a taste:

But when the negative gap between longer-term bond yields and rates at the front end of the GoC curve was as steep as it is now, the Canadian economy entered a recession 100% of the time.

Why are the Canadian banks tightening their credit guidelines and boosting their loan loss provisioning of late? Because they are being forward-looking and see things unfolding just as I do.

Economic decay is already underway. Real GDP growth in Canada has slowed markedly on a four-quarter trailing trend basis from a hot +4% pace a year ago to a chilly +0.5% as of the third quarter, as fiscal stimulus lags fade away and the bite from the radical tightening in monetary policy lingers on. This is a stall-speed economy and is either in recession or rapidly approaching one. When you adjust for the immigration-fueled +2.7% population boom, what this means is that the economy, in real per-capita terms, has contracted -2.2% over the past four quarters. You can only camouflage the dismal economic reality via unprecedented inbound migration flows for so long.

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December 12th, 2023

Posted In: Juggling Dynamite

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