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August 22, 2023 | Ticking Time Bomb

No one has followed the silver market trading mechanics for as long or as closely as Ted Butler.


I’m still convinced a “Code Red” market emergency exists in COMEX silver based upon the extremely large positioning changes for the reporting week ended July 18. That week, there was massive managed money buying and commercial selling. I concluded silver would either explode in price or get smacked down by commercial price rigging and then we would explode. Obviously, since we did experience “option two,” let me explain why I’m still convinced of a coming price explosion.

It has to do with the remarkable and readily-documented changes in futures contract positioning in COMEX silver and as verified in official Commitments of Traders (COT)  report data over the four reporting weeks following the Code Red week of July 18. By the way, there have also been quite remarkable and bullish positioning changes in other markets, like COMEX gold and copper, as well as NYMEX platinum. So, I would also expect sharp price rallies in those commodities, just not to the extent I foresee in silver (due to a wide variety of factors). The positioning changes in COMEX silver futures over the past four reporting weeks have been extraordinarily extreme and bullish.

A long-term premise of mine is that at some point, the big commercial shorts would stand aside from aggressively adding new short positions in silver (even though they always have in the past). I’m convinced that time is now. What I’m suggesting has to occur at some point.  Everything I look at tells me these former big shorts will not add shorts this time around. For starters, there’s the deepening physical silver shortage. These big commercials on the COMEX are every bit the collusive crooks I claim they are. But that does not mean these guys are dumb and only dumb guys would sell short heavily into a physical shortage. Without silver prices climbing sharply from current levels, there is no way that the physical shortage won’t grow progressively worse.  The big commercials know this. So, it comes down to them picking the right time to step aside from adding shorts, and there can be no better time than right after they just maneuvered the technical funds out from long positions and into short positions in a major way.

The silver manipulation must end at some point, as must all price manipulations. There should be no question that if the big commercials don’t add aggressively to short positions when silver upwardly penetrates its moving averages, then there is no way that silver won’t explode in price in a manner none of us has ever witnessed.

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August 22nd, 2023

Posted In: Butler Research

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