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June 22, 2021 | America: Brutal Revolution of Benign Reform?

Bob Hoye has been in investment business for some 50 years, making him one of the more experienced researchers. His historical work has been thorough providing the first recognition of the fascinating transition from speculation in commodities to speculation in financial assets. It was controversial when Bob observed that “No matter how much the Fed prints, stocks will outperform commodities”. In January 2000, the research team concluded that the Dot-Com Bubble would peak in March 2000. In early 2007, the team outlined that the credit markets would reverse in May-June 2007. They did and the stock market followed. The latest was the call in early October for the Bitcoin Bubble to complete in December. Bob’s essays and speeches on political change and on actual climate change have been widely circulated.

What’s it going to be like when ordinary folk become more emphatic in saying “No!” to unrelenting intrusion by the dangerously ambitious Left? Will globalists force another bloody revolution? Or will American patriots be allowed to peacefully reform their bullying governments?  

Constructively, reform is well under way and the discovery of informed opposition has shocked the Leftist establishment, provoking considerable fury and even hatred. The irony has been that the “social contract” has been corrupted to one-way abuse with the state taking your money and telling you what to do. And clearly, the burden of in-your-wallet and in-your-face government is becoming “too much”. But reform is daunting. The Left’s intrusion is their fulltime job; for ordinary folk; work, family and friends is the fulltime job. 

Further incentive for reform is that those frantic to impose rules and regulations don’t bother to follow them. Face masks for you, but not for Pelosi. 

But for relief, ordinary folk have to move from complacency to resistance and even to working “overtime”. 

Reforming the politics of unrelenting and costly intrusion will require a lot of overtime.  Well beyond the essential workday or afterwards delivering wheels on meals or coaching Little League.  It will require facing down malevolent operatives in the CIA, FBI, DOJ, and IRS, paid to use state power against “deplorable” individuals. Not to overlook so many activists disguised as journalists, as well as and to amend Hayek’s dedication—“the Marxists in all parties”.  

Some call using judicial processes against individuals “weaponized legalism”. 

But reform needs to advance, otherwise government by the consent “of the people” will be completely trashed. 

Of growing concern is the ignorance of the Left, which really believes that this time socialism will work. Another is that it is intolerant of impartial criticism. Criticizing the Left means you are “Right Wing”, as in Nazi. As if this epithet is worse than communists murdering a hundred million of those accused of not being politically correct. My response to being smeared as “Hitler” has been “You’re wrong, I’m for limited government, you are for unlimited government”.  

Which is a huge difference. 

Fortunately, physics provides an elegant definition of a totalitarian system: “That which is not compulsory, is prohibited”. Which relates to everything from the UN to schoolboards.  

Also, there is an awesome definition of fascism: “The combination of big government and big business”. Which has been the mode of the power clique unleashed by Obama. 

Moreover, the old definition of a stock promotion provides timely perspective: 

In the beginning, the promoter has the vision, and the public has the money. At the end, the promoter has the money, and the public has the vision.” 

The transfer of money from private to state pockets is unprecedented. Skilfully accomplished through two “visions”, each very grand. 

Established in 1913, the longest running scam has been the Federal Reserve System. Which while ostensibly formed to prevent recessions, the Fed has enabled state theft through chronic currency depreciation. Since its inception, the dollar has lost 97 percent of its purchasing power. Recently the Fed has been compelled to provide unlimited funding for the unrelenting experiment in unlimited government.  

The last such example suffered within the senior economy prevailed through the equally corrupt 1500s. Authoritarian experiments are not new in practice nor result. 

Despite generations of boasts about preventing recessions, there have been 18 cyclical recessions since 1913. They are consequent to booms and on the next contraction the Fed will be vulnerable to scholarly criticism as well as public condemnation. 

Of course, the other “vision” for grabbing power and the other guy’s wages has been the promotion that bureaucrats can control the temperature of the nearest planet. Will the implacable physics of climate really acknowledge regulations and taxes? This employment of fear has been the most successful promotion in financial history. 

But as far as the “vision” goes, climate remains near the bottom of opinion polls. But those at the public trough dine well on never-ending threats. For thirty years the world has been going to “Fry” within the next five years. But “tipping points” remain elusive. 

And being fake, the climate promotion is vulnerable to a natural cooling trend, which this old geophysicist considers is underway. 

But before getting into legit criticism of power-mad politicians and bureaucrats it is appropriate to review some “Firsts”: 

  • For the first time in history warming is suddenly a threat to life.

  • Hundreds of millions of years ago our planet was covered in snow and slush. Called “Snowball Earth”, it was unfriendly to life.

  • Also, a first, CO2 is no longer essential to life but has suddenly become a toxic threat.

  • The last great experiment in authoritarian government was imposed during the 1500s when a natural cooling trend made life not just difficult but forced famines.

  • Then everyone knew that women caused bad weather and highly educated men as magistrates convicted and executed thousands of witches for “making weather”. The term for storms and cold that caused famines.

  • And now men and children are included as “causing weather”. Another “First”, it is uncertain if it is an enlightened step. 

So, how will the struggle resolve? Another murderous Marxist revolution or another benign reform? 

To almost everyone’s regret when on a roll, authoritarians never know when to quit. In 2,000 years of European history, every such experiment has gone totalitarian. With the governing classes assuming the ultimate privilege of state murder, so essential to enforcing unpopular dictates. While this is possible, opposition as the governing classes become, well, ungovernable is growing. Hungary and Poland having suffered horribly with National Socialists and then International Socialists are reforming as fast as they can. 

And reforming countries can’t believe how much power global Marxists have usurped in America. And still bent upon radical policies–despite tight positions in Congress, when both parties should be platforming in the middle. In surrendering to Marxism, Democrats are abandoning their base. Ironically, its native nihilism has turned upon itself, as part of the base will shift to the reforming Republican Party. Polls show that those fleeing the deplorable Dem states for Florida or Texas are not just voting with their feet, but a majority are conservative. 

With no evidence of control freaks ever voluntarily surrendering power, how brutal will they become in defending their greatest gains ever? 

Democrats have been the war party and seem determined to disarm as well as silence any opposition. However, state legislatures still provide checks and balances. The ability to alter key elections is being constitutionally reduced and it seems unlikely that the Dems will provoke another civil war. 

Over thousands of years, there have been popular uprisings with much in common. Each was consequent to the iniquity of the governing classes living and promising well, as ordinary folk suffered hardship.  

In reviewing Holland in the 1570s, Will Durant wrote that a typical peasant bread riot turned into a “iconoclastic rebellion” against the authoritarian Spanish Netherlands. Driven by crop failure, it was an early step in that great reformation. 

Today’s statist icons include face masks. In the 1930s it was fascist arm bands. 

In the 1970s, Harvard astronomer Barbara Bell published her research on climate cooling causing the fall of Egyptian dynasties. The mechanism was straightforward and recurring. A lengthy cooling trend forced poor harvests. Ordinary folk in facing famine as the governing classes lived well became desperate. 

Defined as “popular uprisings” they were provoked by popular dissatisfaction. The key was that the Palace Guards were not of the governing classes but of the people. Then when push came to shove, the guards laid down their spears and authoritarians were overwhelmed.  

In having read and appreciated Bell’s observations this writer in the 1980s was watching for the equivalent to occur in communist Europe. In 1989, East German Border Guards who were not of the governing classes laid down their machine guns, and ordinary folk went cross-border shopping.  

And that was a catalyst that brought down communist governments around the world. 

Regrettably showing that feral socialists are the worst of critters, back in power authoritarians are ramping up climate hysteria on a reckless totalitarian drive. Making it timely to look for today’s equivalence of Palace or Border Guards to stop defending state iniquity. These are the monolithic media that this writer has described as Swamp Guards.

Some Leftist journalists such as Pulitzer winner Glenn Greenwald have “crossed the floor” so to speak. There will be others. 

In revolutions such as the French or Russian, popular dissatisfaction was corrupted by neurotic intellectuals into reigns of terror. Similarly ambitious operators such as Soros are at it again, employing Biden and Pelosi as puppets.  

The most successful reform was England’s “Glorious Revolution” of 1688, when a popular uprising instead of civil war deposed the last absolutist king. Sensing political tides turning against him, James 2.0 sought solace in authoritarian France. At home, Brits codified individual protection in their Bill of Rights. 

Also driven by a regard for freedom the American Revolution accomplished reform with the Constitution that has been effective until recently. 

Equivalently fateful was the benign popular uprising in 1989 when ordinary folk took on the armed and murderous Marxists in East Germany.  

In reading about such uprisings over so much of history this writer remains confident that ordinary folk can again restore government “by the people” in a growing number of countries. 

In America, the determination of freedom lovers can inspire state legislatures to use their constitutional powers to protect them from the federales who are on a destructive rampage. Also inspired by the popular resolve for freedom, the Supreme Court could rise to its responsibilities. 

And in coming together in a “Glorious Reformation” thwart the current oaf of office.

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June 22nd, 2021

Posted In: Charts and Markets - Bob Hoye

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