ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
June 22, 2025 | Strategic Investment Conclusions
Today we’ll talk again about the SIC—not the Strategic Investment Conference, but the Strategic Investment Conclusions it helped us reach. This is not a recap of the conference. It’s my reflection on some things I think we should practice in our lives and our investment portfolio management. The “strategic” part means we don’t seek information for its […]
June 21, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for June 21, 2025
Market reaction to the Israel/Iran war has been muted Israel and Iran are at war, but you wouldn’t know it from looking at this S&P futures chart. The daily WTI crude oil chart shows a bigger price reaction, with prices up ~25% since the beginning of June. However, on the monthly chart, prices around $73 don’t […]
June 21, 2025 | JFK, Nixon – The Deep State Coup of the United States
June 21, 2025 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel
CBC News Network’s Weekend Business Panel takes on top stories of the week. Here is a direct video link.
June 21, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday June 21st 2025
The Bottom Line Economic focus this week is on U.S. Core May PCE Price Index released on Friday. Earnings focuses this week are on FedEx on Tuesday and Nike on Thursday. Political focus this week is on the “One Big Beautiful Bill”. Will Congress pass the Bill before the July 4th holiday? Seasonal focus is […]
June 20, 2025 | Israel and Iran are at War But Investors are Unfazed
The Middle East has entered yet another war, this time between Israel and Iran. The U.S. appears poised to get directly involved, on top of its already substantial role as Israel’s main backer. So far, markets haven’t blinked. The S&P 500 is still trading within 2% of its all-time high, and oil is up only […]
June 20, 2025 | Traits of the Happiest People
Based on my 78 years on this planet, here are what I believe tend to be the traits of the happiest people: 1. Happy people are healthy – both physically and mentally. 2. Happy people are married. 3. Happy people are good at what they do – which gives them great […]
June 19, 2025 | The Legacy of Zero Interest Rate Policy: Misallocated Resources
Interest-rate suppression experiments of central banks dominated the world from 2008 to 2022, incentivizing the misallocation of $trillions of resources, record debt, and uneconomical asset prices. Real estate — the most widely owned and leveraged asset in the world — is one of the most glaring and consequential hangovers, with many areas now drowning in […]
June 19, 2025 | Powell Blames Trump Tariffs for Coming Inflation
I repeatedly warned that the headlines would blame Trump tariffs for the incoming inflationary wave. Jerome Powell stated that “uncertainty is unusually elevated” as a result of tariffs, adding, “someone has to pay for the tariffs.” “Ultimately, the cost of the tariff has to be paid, and some of it will fall on […]
June 18, 2025 | Recession Watch: Should We Really Be Piling Into Equities and Options?
Auto prices have soared in the past decade, while auto loan interest rates have more or less doubled in the past two years. The result: hugely expensive “car mortgages” and spiking loan delinquencies: But as ominous as auto loans seem, they pale next to credit cards and student loans, where delinquencies have gone parabolic. Over […]
June 18, 2025 | China to Become World Nuclear Energy Super Power
China has discovered a massive 1-million-ton thorium deposit valued at $178 billion that could potentially power the nation for the next 60,000 years. Thorium is a radioactive metal found in the Earth’s crust that is three times as common as uranium. One ton of thorium can produce as much energy as 200 tons of uranium […]
June 18, 2025 | Israel Attacks Iran To Destroy Their Offensive Military Capability And To Decimate Their Nuclear Weapons Program
Israel and Iran at War: Israel had intelligence that Iran had completed building multiple nuclear weapons (8 to 10) and that they were now mating the weapons with their middle and long range ballistic missiles. This alone was an existential threat to them but there was also intelligence that Iran was prepared to give some […]
June 17, 2025 | War – It’s All Connected – Middle East, Russia, and China
This Middle East War is deeply connected with the war to destroy Russia, and it is all orchestrated by the NEOCONS. I have written before that I argued with Bill Kristol back in the ’90s, whose father helped start the Neoconservative movement. They wanted to remove all opponents of Israel under the pretense that […]
June 16, 2025 | 800 Pound Gorilla
Happy Monday Morning! A few weeks ago we wrote a piece titled, ‘The Seeds For the Next Crisis’ in which we aptly noted, A new condo development is years (sometimes a decade) in the making. From land acquisition, to rezoning, to development permits, pre-sales, and and building permits. Proformas are written years ago. When input […]
June 16, 2025 | Evaporating Silver
The world is riveted to middle-of-the-night images of Tel Aviv, as missiles rain down from the sky and buildings explode. This is horrifying in terms of human suffering. And it’s exhausting, watching humans find yet another reason to kill each other. But it’s validating for us cynical stackers, as all the silver in those missiles is […]
June 16, 2025 | Is the Goal an Iranian Regime Change?
Israel launched Operation Rising Lion on June 13, 2025, in an attempt to stop Israel’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs to “roll back the Iranian threat for Israel’s survival.” Mossad intelligence agents penetrated Iranian facilities with small explosive drones. Simultaneously, 200 Israeli fighter jets carried out precision strikes on over 100 targets. Over 20 senior […]
June 15, 2025 | The Investment Signal in the Noise
One cannot overstate the importance of Claude Shannon and his 1940s work on information theory at Bell Labs. It was foundational to modern telecommunications and electronics. We’ve seen constant improvement in our ability to communicate because we can separate the important information from the noise. Those of us of a certain age can remember trying […]
June 15, 2025 | Timing Signals
In October 2023, I published this blog post. By studying the past, the chart signaled it was a good time to buy gold – which turned out to be true. It’s wise to use the same disciplined approach to investing in real estate – at least for me. In my May 2025 Timing Letter, I […]
June 15, 2025 | Wall Street Too Stupid to Worry
There were few headlines out of the Middle East over the weekend, mainly because only Israel and Iran are capable of judging the damage, and neither is saying much. Wall Street, on the other hand, seems quite confident that whatever is happening, and irrespective of the outcome, it will be quite bullish for stocks. As […]
June 15, 2025 | Is War a Contagion?
Is War a Contagion? World War I is certainly a classic case of war emerging as a contagion. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand triggered a chain reaction of alliances pulling countries into the conflict. That seems like contagion through formal treaties. Yet, there is also the spread of revolutions. The American Revolution saw […]
June 15, 2025 | Goldman Sachs: Uranium’s Structural Deficit Makes the Miners a “Buy
As recently as 2023, nuclear power was seen as a fringe idea, and the uranium miners were on virtually no one’s radar screens. What a difference a couple of years can make. Nuclear is now leading the energy transition, and Wall Street is predicting a multi-decade boom for the miners. Consider this from Goldman Sachs: Is nuclear […]
June 14, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for June 14, 2025
Israel attacked Iran – price action was subdued Nymex WTI futures spiked ~$10 on the news, to the highest prices since January, but closed the day (and the week) ~$5 below the highs. The setback from Friday’s highs may have been an excellent example of “buy the rumour, sell the news.” At Friday’s highs, WTI was up ~30% […]
June 14, 2025 | Martin Armstrong Interview with Daniel Estulin (English)
June 14, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday June 14th 2025
The Bottom Line Volatility spiked in U.S. equity markets on Friday mainly due to the increasing military conflict between Israel and Iran. The VIX Index moved above 20.
June 13, 2025 | Canada Doubles Down on Defense
Guest Post – Canada has long been under pressure from its NATO allies to meet the alliance’s military spending benchmark of 2% of GDP. For decades, Ottawa has lagged behind, spending roughly 1.45% of GDP on defense. But in a surprising move, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Canada will reach the 2% target this […]