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March 19, 2024 | The Great Misconception of AI

  AI is a hot topic for regulators. Regulators and most companies that offer purported AI are clueless about what constitutes actual AI. Way too many charlatans are out there calling a simple trend-following program AI. They create some rules, and the program just follows what they created. That is NOT Artificial Intelligence. The SEC […]

March 19, 2024 | Liquidity Crunch Spreads as Investors Try to Exit

Saturday’s Report on Business included an insightful investigative report on private debt funds that became all-the-rage during the 2009-2022 low-rate era. See The risks of Bay Street’s hottest funds: Investors often fly blind, and billions of dollars are now trapped: The 2008-09 global financial crisis was a major catalyst for the sector’s growth. Before the crash, […]

March 18, 2024 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: National House Prices Flat in Feb., -16% from Peak, Condos Drop Further, on Bank of Canada’s 5% & Massive QT

House prices in Canada were unchanged in February compared to January, seasonally adjusted, having fallen by 15.6% from the peak in February 2022, according to the Home Price Benchmark Index for single family houses by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) today. Compared to a year ago, it ticked up 1.6%. In dollar terms, the […]

March 18, 2024 | Democrats Are Dancing in the Streets Over Bankrupting Trump & Family

  I have warned that our computer has put out a MAJOR long-term SELL SIGNAL on New York City.  You had better get the HELL out of NYC and not do business with ANY company in New York City, for the courts are no longer reliable. The novel action against Trump is that they claimed […]

March 18, 2024 | Marketplace Reveals Financial Disservice at Canadian Banks

Canadians trust they’re getting good financial advice from their banks — especially in these tough financial times. But a hidden camera investigation by Marketplace uncovers immense pressure on bank employees to push products and services to meet sales targets, or risk losing their jobs. Seven years after CBC first investigated the pressure to sell, bank […]

March 17, 2024 | Something’s Got to Give

For nearly a year, I’ve promoted the idea that the post-covid bull rampage would end when Microsoft shares hit $430. They effectively achieved that benchmark on Friday with a pre-dawn print at 428.95 that gave way to a $16 plunge. If this was not THE top, it certainly felt like A top, and a potentially […]

March 17, 2024 | Smart Cars Reporting to Govt – Insurance Rates up 26% YoY

Car insurance rates in the US have spiked by around 26% overall in the past year. The government has been pushing for everyone to go electric and trade, spending tens of thousands more for an electric vehicle, which always comes equipped with monitoring software. Even older cars with basic features like OnStar have tracking devices […]

March 17, 2024 | A Valuation Conversation

You may have noticed the stock market rising lately. Much of the gain isn’t so much “the market” as a handful of mega-cap stocks. Nonetheless, the bulls are clearly in charge. The question is how long they will stay there. History suggests longer than many market bears think. I expect another bear market at some […]

March 17, 2024 | Welcome To The Third World, Part 3: Just Leave Your Keys Where The Car Thieves Can Find Them

This video from Toronto, Canada is both chilling and self-explanatory. Here you go: “Toronto Police advise the public to reduce the risk of home invasions aimed at car theft by placing their key fobs near the front door. This strategy is suggested because culprits are primarily entering homes to access cars, not to steal other […]

March 16, 2024 | Georgia Needs to be Expelled from United States – with NY & Calif – NOW to save Society!

The absurd decision that Fani Willis is not disqualified after meeting with the Vice President and having her lover appointed the prosecutor over Trump, who was also meeting with the Department of Justice, demonstrates that the legal system is just a political charade. A judge is supposed to be recused when a reasonable person might […]

March 16, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For March 16, 2024

Short and long-term interest rates rose every day this week. Are higher rates starting to matter? The S&P and the NAZ closed lower again this week – the first time those indices have seen back-to-back weekly declines since October. Yields on the 10-year Note hit a 16-year high (~5%) in October (as stock indices hit a 5-month […]

March 16, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday March 16th 2024

The Bottom Line Focus this week is on the Fed Fund Rate update released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday. U.S. equity markets traded in a narrow range last week prior to the news. Consensus is that the FOMC will maintain the rate at 5.25%-5.50%. Comments following the 2:00 PM statement will be examined carefully […]

March 16, 2024 | Unprecedented Speculative Option Trading

Hmmmm… next-level bats*#t. Gunjan Banerji, Wall Street Journal live markets coverage lead writer, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the options market around semiconductor and tech stocks, the impact of AI mania on the options market, the impact of Fed rate cuts, and more. Here is a direct video link. 

March 15, 2024 | Soul of a Nation

QUESTION: You have said that a nation’s true wealth is not its gold but its people. Would you say that what makes the people different from nation to nation is their customs and culture? Is Soros’s Open Society destroying civilization by opening borders and undermining our culture? He is doing what Marx did and has no […]

March 15, 2024 | Banks are Fighting Proposals for Tougher Regulatory Rules

A battle is underway in the U.S. over new rules requiring higher equity capital for the banks. Enhanced equity capital protects the bank from insolvency in the event of a financial crisis. Bank lobbyists are fighting hard to keep capital requirements at the lowest possible level while regulators would like higher capital given the historical […]

March 15, 2024 | Reaping What We’ve Sown

  Eleven years of near-zero interest rates (2009-2022) drove record debt and consumption, with a manic over-allocation to expensive real estate. Then, online shopping and work-from-home collapsed demand for commercial and office space, and central banks embarked on the most aggressive rate-tightening cycle in more than 40 years. As central banks hold tight, the highly […]

March 14, 2024 | Mainstream News is Committing Suicide

  Virtually everyone I talk to thinks mainstream news is just propaganda. COVID drove a spike through the very heart and soul of the First Amendment. Even five years later, people generally respected the news. COVID appears to have been the death knell to mainstream news. This chart shows the results of Gallip[ Polls], and […]

March 14, 2024 | Ukraine Drone Attacks on Key Russian Refineries Boosts Crude Prices

GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE The hope that US inflation has been tamed was rebuked with the CPI data released yesterday. US CPI month over month rose 0.4% or 4.8% annualized, more than double the Fed’s target rate and the second month of hot data. Wage growth came in at up 4.3% from the […]

March 14, 2024 | Accidentally Funny CNBC Grapples With Costco Gold Sales

The legacy media has never understood gold, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that Costco and Walmart stocking precious metals — to booming demand — would seem a bit odd. But CNBC just outdid itself with a piece that can be divided into two parts: A befuddled but more or less factual accounting of the trends and numbers, followed […]

March 14, 2024 | Beware Animal Spirits and The Lag Effect

Since the October lows, stocks have roared back to record highs, and bonds have risen solidly as US 10yr Treasury yields have dropped from 5% to near 4% Will the bull run continue through the rest of 2024? It is an election year in America after all. Or, have the animal spirits carried assets to […]

March 14, 2024 | Higher Forever? Even Yellen Starts to Get it: Higher Inflation & Higher Yields Are Here to Stay

By now everyone sort of knows that inflation has been re-heating in a very disconcerting way for months, and that the inflation saga is far from over. There are all kinds of discussions about the future of inflation in the US, and it seems there is a rough common denominator forming: The future of inflation […]

March 13, 2024 | Welcome To The Third World, Part 2: When The Cops Don’t Come

Most Americans call or otherwise interact with the police very infrequently. So our sense of how that public service works may not be up to date. For instance, it’s generally believed that if you call the cops, they’ll respond. But that’s not always how it works these days. One 2023 study found big increases in […]

March 13, 2024 | Canada to Incorporate Social Scores in Banking

  The Canadian banking system is set to be radicalized by open banking framework. Proponents are framing this as a way for banks to easily share information and access user data. The truth of the matter is that this is an opportunity to merge social standings with banking to provide government complete control over our […]

March 13, 2024 | This Kind of Housing Market

A house on my walking circuit sold on February 18 for $1,060,000 after 11 months on the market. It was initially listed in March 2023 for $1,798,000 and has been reduced nine times since. The property was relatively modest but updated with a water view and a legal rental suite. Property taxes are $8430 a […]

March 12, 2024 | Biden Proposes Largest Spending Package and American Taxpayer Burden in US History

  The Biden Administration is outright destroying America through reckless spending. The Federal Reserve has warned that Biden’s current spending habits are robbing future generations of Americans. They cannot stablizie prices or make a dent in inflation due to the rising national debt. After his State of the Union address, Joe Biden unveiled his next […]

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