August 21, 2023 | Biden Selling Border Wall Supplies to Ensure it is Never Constructed

It could not be any more evident that the Biden Administration is allowing a full-scale invasion of the US from the southern border. Trump asked for around $4 billion to secure the US-Mexico border wall, a small fraction of what the US is now spending on maintaining the countless illegal aliens. New York alone estimates they […]

August 21, 2023 | Historic Opportunity Now in the Making

As the riskiest asset prices rebounded into July, most strategists and investment advisers proclaimed the all-clear (as usual), and bullish sentiment roared back near levels seen at the cycle top in early 2021 (shown below courtesy of The Daily Shot).   This is typical behaviour: market sentiment moves in lockstep with price. As stocks have […]

August 21, 2023 | Affordability Hell

Happy Monday Morning! Headline CPI inflation surprised to the upside this past week, pushing back up to 3.3% and well above market expectations of 3%. However, those who have been following along here will know the importance of base effects. When headline inflation fell to 2.8% last month we were quick to highlight some research […]

August 20, 2023 | Govt to Spend $1 Billion on Electric School Buses

The Clean School Bus Program has been funded with a $5 billion grant from the Inflation Reduction Act that should be appropriately named the Climate Change Act. Around $1 billion of this will be spent on electric school buses. As with all spending plans, the budget quickly jumped from $500 million to $1 billion after the EPA […]

August 20, 2023 | Thoughts on Rent, the Fed, and Bonds

[The following was sent out to clients in late July by my friend Doug Behnfield, a wealth manager and senior vice president at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management in Boulder, CO. Long-time followers of Rick’s Picks will be familiar with Doug’s work, since his thoughts have appeared here many times. I have always considered him not only one of […]

August 20, 2023 | Storms and Patterns

Everything about human life has a rhythm. It is literally built into our bodies: Your heart beats in a repeating pattern that keeps you alive. Your breath is another pattern. Repetition is natural for all of us individually and for the societies we create together. Every society has its own rhythms and traditions. But there are larger, […]

August 20, 2023 | Grantham: Recession “Running Perhaps Deep into Next Year”

This is a teaser preview of the full interview that has not yet been released. Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of the Boston-based investment firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo (GMO), predicts a US recession “running perhaps deep into next year.” Grantham says we have entered a period of “moderately higher inflation.” Grantham speaks in an interview taped […]

August 20, 2023 | Credit Crisis: Curve and Spreads: Both Now Warning

In March the Yield Curve inverted as short rates rose above long rates. We use the 2s to 20s and the inversion has always been followed by a recession, without exception. The warning becomes more acute as the Curve reverses, which it is doing now. A slowing economy reduces the ability to service debt with […]

August 19, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For August 19, 2023

A quick report this week – my Golf Club Championship demands my participation! Interest rates keep rising The 10-year US Treasury yield hit a 16-year high of>4.3% this week. Short rates are at 20+year highs, 10-year reals touched 14-year highs, UK Gilts touched 25-year highs, and Canadian 10-year government bonds hit 13-year highs. A stronger-than-expected US economy, […]

August 19, 2023 | China’s Great Slowdown

A glut of Chinese homes and goods, with falling domestic consumption, suggests less demand for global commodities and a deflationary impulse through the rest of the world. China’s momentum is fading after decades of supercharged growth. A much anticipated post-pandemic recovery appears to have flopped, with data flashing warning signs across the economy. The government’s […]

August 19, 2023 | The Massive Online Frauds Are Pouring In From Many Companies

The number of frauds coming in is endless. One is claiming to be the Post Office, and you must log in and pay $5 to get your package. The GEEK Squad is a popular one. I even get them from pretending to be FedEx and CVS. They typically say your card will be charged like […]

August 19, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 19th 2023

The Bottom Line  Intermediate swing traders looking for continuation of an upward trend by North American equity markets were rewarded for their patience last week. The S&P 500 Index at 4,369 moved closer to technical support near 4,200. The TSX Composite Index at 19,818 moved closer to technical support near 19,400.

August 18, 2023 | Inflation Moderates But Still Could Bite Hard

The headline measure was recorded as 3.2 percent from a year ago, while the closely watched core CPI was a more troublesome 4.7 percent. Is inflation beaten yet? In the mid-1970s a concentrated advertising campaign was orchestrated by the U. S. government to demonstrate a willingness to beat inflation at all costs. President Ford named […]

August 18, 2023 | Things We Should Do: Make An Estate Plan

A big part of prepping is about our families rather than ourselves. That is, we want to set things up so our loved ones are protected from the risks they’ll face in the coming hard times. This isn’t usually a problem because buying and organizing precious metals, guns, and food-producing land is fun. But there’s […]

August 18, 2023 | Harsh Credit Cycle Has Broad Impacts

Historical context is critical in assessing where we are in this credit, business and employment cycle. Facts demand sobriety, and the discussion below is lucid. This overall strength in U.S. equities is painting a misleading picture as to where the global economy is heading, especially with the Chinese market indicating signs of a slowdown, David […]

August 18, 2023 | FDA Admits it Had No Authority to Ban Ivermectin

They laughed in the faces of those who wanted to take Ivermectin to treat COVID-19. They deemed it as simply a medication for horses with no real value. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) immediately jumped into action to prevent pharmacies from selling the drug. They threatened doctors not to prescribe the medicine and ran […]

August 17, 2023 | Rigging Elections – Open Your Eyes

COMMENT: You are just a Trump supporter. The 2020 election was not rigged. Get over it. WH ANSWER: I’m sorry you refuse to look at it objectively. I was asked to put in $10 billion, and they were rigging the 2000 Russian election. Here is a tape of former CIA Chief James Woolsey admitting that […]

August 17, 2023 | Improving and Extending Healthful Years

I am just reading Attia’s latest book, Outlive, and I appreciate the proactive focus on extending health quality rather than just the number of years lived. The good news is that it’s possible to improve our health and fitness as we age. If you’ve been wanting to invest in your health, you probably have so many questions […]

August 16, 2023 | Oliver Anthony’s Song Goes Viral

August 16, 2023 | Seeing Truth Through Financial Market Noise

Chief Strategist of QI Research Danielle DiMartino Booth points out that downward revisions in economic data are revealing the truth about the economy far too late and when few are paying attention. As many hail a new bull market, Danielle sees a number of alarming indicators that are outside the focus of the mainstream media […]

August 15, 2023 | The BRICS Currency: We’ll Know Soon

When a Russian spokesman announced that the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries were going to introduce a gold-backed currency at their August 22 – 24 Johannesburg meeting, that prospect — coupled with a complete absence of details — set off a frenzy of speculation about what exactly was coming. Will it […]

August 15, 2023 | The Collapse of the Rule of Law

COMMENT: Marty, I hear Trump is to be arraigned, this time the first with a mugshot that will certainly go viral worldwide, on Aug. 25th. This is immediately after the BRICS summit on Aug, 22-24 with discussions of a new non-dollar trading currency. I can’t believe these lunatics are going to prove to the world […]

August 15, 2023 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: After a Rocking & Rolling BoC-Pause Season, the First Price Drops Reappear

The spring selling season, or rather the Bank of Canada “Pause” season, which had been a rocking and rolling hoot, is over, and the first price declines are here. The Canada Home Price Benchmark Index for single family houses fell by 0.5% in July from June, and by 0.9% year-over-year, to $834,500 (all prices in […]

August 15, 2023 | Tumbling Property Prices Bring Opportunity

In the second quarter of 2023, distressed commercial real estate volume grew by $8 billion–the largest quarterly increase since the second quarter of 2020. The WSJ reports that Wall Street firms are raising new funds to acquire office buildings, apartments and other troubled commercial real estate at a fraction of the price investors paid a few […]