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May 4, 2026 | Levered Multiplexes

Happy Monday Morning! We’ve written a lot about the Canadian rental market. A rental construction boom financed by the federal government has pushed vacancies to multi-decade highs, and pushed rents down by double digits across most major metros. Rental construction is almost entirely financed through CMHC, a government-owned crown corporation. They are now financing nearly […]

May 4, 2026 | Oil Spikes Rhyme Through Time

History does rhyme. The OPEC oil embargo began in October 1973, when Arab members of OPEC announced an embargo against the United States, Canada, Japan, and Western European nations in retaliation for their support of Israel during the Yom Kippur War. The embargo lasted until March 1974, and its effects were long-reaching: Oil prices quadrupled […]

May 3, 2026 | WWWD?

There is a lot to unwrap this week. We’re going to explore what happened at the Fed, and what changes we can expect. Let’s just say it’s not what some are predicting, at least in my humble opinion. Inflation is sadly a growing problem. And that complicates Kevin Warsh’s coming tenure as Fed chair.   […]

May 3, 2026 | Into Thin Air

These weekly commentaries have struggled to make sense of a world in geopolitical chaos but which is nonetheless transfixed by a financial melt-up that cannot end other than disastrously. Still more challenging is predicting the day-to-day effects on a stock market whose behavior is a perfect analog for acute, mass mental illness. By ascending without […]

May 2, 2026 | Geofence Warrants

 

May 2, 2026 | Trading Desk Notes for May 2, 2026

The soaring tech sector had pulled the S&P and Nasdaq indices to new all-time highs S&P futures have closed higher for five consecutive weeks, after closing lower for five consecutive weeks in February/March. The top 10 stocks in the S&P have accounted for ~75% of the index gains since the March lows. As this chart from […]

May 2, 2026 | This Week in Money

May 2, 2026 | Tech Talk for Saturday May 2nd 2026

The Bottom Line Is history for the S&P 500 Index about to repeat? The S&P 500 Index has a long history of entering into a brief corrective period between May 5th and the third week in June. The corrective phase is the basis for the phrase “Sell in May and Go Away”. Seasonal weakness during […]

May 1, 2026 | Party Like It’s… Well, You Know

A number of clients have been asking the same question lately: What gives? Why does the stock market keep rising? It’s a fair question. The S&P 500 continues to levitate, seemingly indifferent to geopolitical tension, sticky inflation, and the growing possibility of a U.S. recession. And while it’s generally considered bad form in finance to invoke 1999—rather […]

May 1, 2026 | The Housing Crisis Nobody Wants To Talk About

This discussion covers some impactful US and Canadian housing trends and assessments. This episode dives into the real state of the U.S. housing market, uncovering early warning signs that many buyers and investors are overlooking. From rising foreclosure risks and FHA loan pressure to affordability challenges and shifting inventory trends, we break down what the […]

May 1, 2026 | UK Retail Sector Collapse

Britain’s retail sector has just posted the worst collapse in sales in more than 40 years, and this is precisely the type of economic deterioration our models have been warning would emerge across Europe into 2028. The Confederation of British Industry reported that its retail sales volume balance plunged to -68 in April from -52 […]

May 1, 2026 | Craziest Crude Market Ever?

Below ground uranium could be risky investment

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