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May 18, 2022 | Population & Social Security – Civil Unrest

Martin Armstrong

Martin Arthur Armstrong is current chairman and founder of Armstrong Economics. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.

QUESTION #1: Dear Martin and AE Team,
Thank you for everything you do and have done for us, the little people.
My question is this. As you/Socrates have predicted the fall of governments on a global scale, along with the collapse in confidence, of which I am the poster child for, I was a lifelong Democrat, but no longer, I have completely lost all confidence in our government. My concern is what do you or Socrates think is going to happen to Social Security. I will be turning 62 very soon and think that given everything that is going on, I should take what I can get NOW, because it doesn’t look like Social Security will be around after 2033. Does Socrates have any predictions on this. I would think there are a lot of other AE subscribers in the same predicament. Any opinion (not advice) on this would be gratefully appreciated.

Thank you very much,


ANSWER #1: It is a difficult question. Inflation will erode what you get anyhow. But there will come a point in time when the whole thing goes belly-up. It was January 1935, when President Roosevelt sent his “Economic Security Bill” to Capitol Hill. On August 14th, 1935 (1935.619) President Roosevelt signed the bill into law at a ceremony in the White House Cabinet Room. The likelihood of SS coming to a complete end will be 2029.6. Just keep in mind that they will pay only what is owed and they will not take into account real inflation. Just ask those who were promised pensions from Venezuela. When they were finally paid, what would have covered a month’s living expenses would buy a cup of coffee.

The problem that we have with Social Security is that the entire system is a Ponzi Scheme. It needs population growth to keep paying taxes to pay for the previous generation. As you know, I was called in to reform Social Security and turn it into a wealth fund that actually invested back in the Nineties. The Democrats would not vote for it claiming it was more secure investing in government binds exclusively, and if it was privatized they wanted to change the fund managers when they go back in power. The whole thing was a joke.

QUESTION #2: Mr. Armstrong, it is becoming obvious that _______ no longer publish your forecasts because they are like the Biden Administration and will only publish people taking your work as long as they claim gold will rise to $40,000. If I remember correctly, you said the postwar period of the baby boom was the peak in population growth and that a decline into 2028 would unfold but the low would be after 2032? How low is low?

Concerned Reader


ANSWER: Those who are always desperate to claim everything will go down except for gold are spouting out their personal bias which prevents them from looking at the real trend. The eventual low in population may not arrive until 2040. As far as how low is low, that should be about a 50% reduction up there with the Black Plague.

We have war, but on top of that, we have climate change that is heading to colder – not warmer periods. That is when crops fail and that results in malnutrition and then disease rises. These mandatory COVID vaccines are probably the catalyst for a sharp rise in disease. Viruses mutate besides the reports that the vaccines are lowering people’s immune systems. That is the biological function of a virus within the ecosystem in this world. The more you vaccinate unnecessarily, the more mutations will emerge from the viruses to survive. That means they will get worse because they are defeating the vaccines. Those who were NOT vaccinated will stand a far better shot at surviving. Those who survived the Black Plague developed the antibodies and passed them on. This is part of the survival of the fittest reality.

Just look at the antibiotics. The overuse of these drugs has led to superbugs evolving that are now incurable. The CDC has even stated that the overuse of antibiotics has led to superbugs. Interestingly, even the World Economic Forum (WEF) report published in 2014 warned that ‘The world will run out of effective antibiotics.” The WEF stated the link between the overuse of antibiotics was causing antibiotic resistance and superbugs in hospitals. This has increased the death rates of many people. The WEF concluded that antibiotic-resistant bacteria posed the greatest risk to human health. Others have noted that bacteria are growing stronger and acquiring resistance to multiple drugs. (Spellberg, Bartlett, & Gilbert, 2013). So my question is WHY did the WEF insist upon 100% vaccination knowing that will subject society to a devastating loss of life long-term? Was this the true goal?

To me, it is hard to imagine any rational person demanding 100% vaccinations for COVID. This introduces a risk to humanity for the COVID-19 virus will mutate to defeat all possible vaccines as what is already taking place with antibiotics. When I went for a check-up to a new doctor, I said I was NOT vaccinated and he actually responded: “Good!”

The more volcanoes that are erupting (3 now in Alaska), the greater the chance of volcanic winter such as that of 1816 – the Year Without a Summer. If that unfolds on top of this food shortage created by the COVID Lockdowns and the crazy Climate Change people who want to terminate all fossil fuels right now, we are looking at a lethal combination of events that can certainly lead to a 50% reduction in the population by 2040.

There are plenty of people who are taking our forecasts and pretending they have derived this all on their own. Sorry. This comes from a computer that has been putting that forecast out for the last 20 years by correlating everything. You cannot simply look at war and claim that is your source. This is a combination of events – it is never a single cause and effect.

QUESTION #3: Marty, there were a number of major financial institutions there in Orlando and two central bankers I overheard in a conversation. They were all focused on not your international war cycle, but your cycle of civil unrest. I think the punch line was that was much more serious. Do you have any updates on that here midterm?

Thanks really for you and your team. They are standing by society in a time we need it. My hat is off to your entire staff.


ANSWER #3: Yes, Civil Unrest is actually far more dangerous than international war to the domestic institutions. As I have warned many times, the Civil Unrest is what leads to revolutions. The International War lead to a reduction in population, and they can lead to civil unrest as was the case in Germany following WWI when they overthrew the monarchy. World civil unrest turned up sharply with the ECM turning point of 2020.05.

That said, the #1 question I do get right now from our global banking clients, investment firms, and international hedge funds has been about the civil unrest forecasts. They saw the uprising in Pakistan because of rising inflation. The polls here show that inflation is the #1 concern. There are more people concerned about the Johnny Depp trial than Roe v Wade. Even Walt Disney has suffered a major collapse in their trust following their attack on DeSantis. Sorry, but most parents do not want third graders being told they might be gay. This entire WOKE movement has undermined the confidence in corporations and government.

Our institutional clients are bracing themselves for a surge in civil unrest in the US, but especially in Europe including Great Britain. This entire insanity of trying to shut down fossil fuels BEFORE you have a viable alternative is not just sending energy prices to the Moon, but food prices are exploding and shortages are expanding. This is a combination that is behind our computer forecasts on the Civil Unrest models that we have published for the last 40 years.

Our models on Civil Unrest go back to 600BC which is significantly different than the international war model which goes back to 6000BC starting with recorded history covering Europe and Asia.

And, BTW, this is not a one-man band. Our staff is around the world. We have Staff in China, Europe, Middles East, and SE Asia. They deserve the recognition. They are committed to what we do and try to provide answers and forecasts for the largest international audience of anyone. People take our forecasts and pretend they are their own and others refuse to give us any credit or recognition because they preach that everything will collapse and only gold will rise. As soon as you hear that forecast it is all BS. There is absolutely NO SUCH PERIOD in history where that has ever happened. Even the German Hyperinflation they attribute to printing money exclusively and ignore the fact that EVERYTHING tangible rose in value from real estate to rare coins, stamps, and equitable value in companies. The replacement currency was backed by real estate – NOT GOLD!

They are spouting out propaganda that has cost so many people their future. The German Hyperinflation was NOT about printing money – there was a 1918 Communist Revolution in Germany so people abandoned German currency, fled to just about any other currency, and that became the Weimer Republic with the compromise being Socialist. That is when the Social Democratic Party (SDP) gained real power.

Anyone who put out that type of forecast is a confirmation that they are biased and are not real analysts. You have to look at the situation and how it developed to understand and survive. They start with this theory of Gold Standards and printing money and ignore all the real facts. As they say, garbage in = garbage out.

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May 18th, 2022

Posted In: Armstrong Economics

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