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April 18, 2022 | S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Marks New High

Martin Armstrong

Martin Arthur Armstrong is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.

Home prices were up 19.2% in January according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index. It is extremely difficult for Millennials and Gen Z to enter the housing market, as homes today cost 75% more than they did in 1987 – and that’s just when the index first began tracking prices. The agency addressed the problem the youth are facing:

“While the re-acceleration of home price gains may be concerning and likely discouraging for first-time and younger buyers, it is nevertheless unsurprising considering the dire inventory of for-sale homes, which continues to decline and continually record new lows. Additionally, with mortgage rates jumping to three-year highs, existing homeowners now have little incentive to sell and buy a new, more expensive home with a higher mortgage rate. As a result, homebuyers that remain in the market are once again faced with a very competitive buying environment.”

The pandemic, coupled with extremely low rates, spurred this buying frenzy. Cumulatively, home prices across the US rocketed 31% since March 2020. Although rates are rising and mortgages hit nearly 5% last week, there is no indication of demand declining significantly. The age of remote work has allowed people earning New York-level salaries to relocate to areas with lower tax rates and less crime. It has become a new form of gentrification in the age of corona.

Home prices are soaring everywhere as the supply cannot meet the demand. Some areas have far surpassed 19.2% increases. The 10-city composite is 33% higher than during the peak in 2006, and the 20-city composite rose an astounding 40%. America is looking at a housing crisis if inflation does not wane and risks a generation becoming reliant on rentals and more likely to delay having families.

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April 18th, 2022

Posted In: Armstrong Economics

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