Growth and inflation are in retreat, stocks are tumbling, corporate debt spreads are leaping, and yield curves are flattening with the economically clairvoyant U.S 10 and 2-year spread .38 today, from an optimistic 1.59% peak in March 2021.  This is not about Ukraine.  This is a ‘free-money’ debt-enabled consumption and gambling frenzy that’s ending with central banks out of time still pumping cash and holding policy rates at zero.  Now they are expected to hike aggressively—two words:  bonne chance.

This discussion from February 3 offers some data-rich counterpoints to the multiple-hike consensus view.

The Fed’s bark will not turn to bite, and we provide a framework on how to make money by betting against the multiple rate hikes now being widely discounted across all asset classes.  Here is a direct video link.