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January 16, 2022 | Bruce C: The Fed Is Getting Just What It Wants

John Rubino is a former Wall Street financial analyst and author or co-author of five books, including The Money Bubble: What to Do Before It Pops and Clean Money: Picking Winners in the Green-Tech Boom. He founded the popular financial website in 2004, sold it in 2022, and now publishes John Rubino’s Substack newsletter.

Sometimes the best thing about a blog post is the comments it generates. That’s frequently true on DollarCollapse, especially when friend-of-the-site Bruce C is doing the commenting. Here, in the first of what will hopefully become a series (under Bruce’s byline), are a couple of representative examples:

“What If The Rest Of The World Tightens And The U.S. Doesn’t?” — December 19

Bruce C: Well, considering that the question really is about how the financial markets would respond it’s hard to predict given how flaky and confused everyone seems to be. However, if I had to guess, I’d say the response would be exactly what the Fed wants: Money would move out of Treasuries and into the debt “assets” in the higher interest rate countries. That would then tend to lower US bond demand/prices – and thus raise their rates – without the Fed having to do it. All the while QE could continue.

I may be wrong about that, but one thing I’m pretty sure of is that those mini-CBs wouldn’t be allowed to raise their rates without the permissions of the Fed and ECB, and maybe even the BOC. Therefore, those “big three” must think it will serve their interests, and allowing market rates to rise without the Fed et al having to taper QE would do that.

But if the CBs are indeed thinking along those lines – and therefore the financial markets too – then it’s all based on the belief that higher prevailing interest rates will stop consumer price inflation. I’m not so sure that’s true. The risk is the CBs losing credibility and the chaos that would ensue (i.e., a ‘come to gold’ moment.) …

… My point that is the simple concept of “raising interest rates stops consumer price inflation” is really just a propaganda technique. If the “real” way to stop price inflation is to stop expectations of it then it’s really all about psychology, not monetary theory. It could quite literally be that if the Fed reps and financial media and CPI data statisticians can get consumers to believe that then their expectations will make it self-fulfilling. The problem is, what if they don’t buy it? Since there really is no “technical” mechanism to stop it then that’s going to be a problem – as you say – increasing money velocity making it worse.

Also remember that the cited article is referring to “poor” consumers, which rhymes with ignorant. That means those people need to get the message that their country’s CB is ‘raising rates which will stop inflation, etc, etc.’. Not only may they not get that message they may not “understand” it enough to believe it, so inflation may not stop, if that is indeed the real trick. That will only make it harder to convince the more “educated” consumers in the West to believe it if or when their CB’s start to raise rates “to tame in inflation.” It will be interesting to see how it works in the UK, because the BOE is the first big CB to have done it.

“Would A Longevity Breakthrough Bankrupt Retirees?” — January 19

Bruce C: I know this “holy grail” has been in the works for a long time but it’s a little ironic that such efforts aren’t put in to being healthier along the way so maybe bizarro drugs aren’t needed. It’s not surprising, though, since allopathic medicine is considered the standard approach in the West. The way covid has been handled is an example: No mention of therapeutics, non-pharmaceutical alternative treatments, and even just more emphasis on reducing obesity and ways to do that.

I’d be interested to know what percentage of people would actually want to live longer versus just being afraid of dying.

For that matter, back to the coronavirus pandemic again, there is no recognition of the purposes of things like pandemics, and other mass events. They are actually very creative systems, sort of like weather conditions, that serve multiple purposes. And one of those purposes includes providing a face-saving way to die.

Christianity, at least as it has been promoted officially, definitely implies that one only lives once, and there may – or will – be a kind of judgment of it. No reincarnation, multiple lives, or do-overs, That’s pretty scary. Fortunately it’s not true, but if you don’t know that some grotesque distortions can develop, like wanting to extend life “technologically.”

Anyway, if one wants to do that, then yes they should prepare for it. But then we get back to maybe being healthier along the way so working longer is both physically possible and desirable.

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January 16th, 2022

Posted In: John Rubino Substack

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