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July 6, 2021 | Taiwan & the Risks

Martin Armstrong

Martin Arthur Armstrong is current chairman and founder of Armstrong Economics. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I take it you see China retaking Taiwan in the years ahead. I read your latest report. With your expertise, how do you see that unfolding?

Thank you for your guidance


ANSWER: China would most likely use its DF-16 – a short-range ballistic missile which Taiwan would have extreme difficulting in preventing them from getting through their defense net. They would target all military installations and possibly take out Taiwan’s airports and that would probably be followed by surface troops landing on their shores. China has its H-6 bombers and J-16 fighter jets, which would wipe out its naval force.

China would then launch several rounds of intensive cruise missile attacks, such as the YJ-91 and CJ-10. These would be launched from both land and sea. This would further target all military bases, ammunition depots, communications infrastructure, and key road junctions. If the PLA did not surrender, since the US and Japan will NOT come to their aid,  then they would use artillery strikes from surface ships and land-based rocket forces to annihilate the PLA’s resistance. I suspect they could take Taiwan in less than 2 weeks. They have been conducting major military exercises.

I do not believe that China is interested in wiping out the infrastructure or the means for economic commerce in computers. The question would be that the West will probably then look to create a competitive chip production to prevent reliance on Asia for computer technology.

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July 6th, 2021

Posted In: Armstrong Economics

One Comment

  • George Summers says:

    “If the PLA did not surrender” and “annihilate the PLA’s resistance” – did you mean TAF? (Taiwanese Armed Forces)

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