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January 19, 2017 | Summers – hope for best, plan for worst!

Lawrence Summers, American economist/Keynesian, says that Trumponomics  is unlikely to deliver the results which people have implied via their emotions these past few weeks. Summers says in the Financial Times, January 17, that “the U.S. president will be operating on a very weak political foundation”. He ends his article with “If ever there was a […]

January 18, 2017 | Canada Goose

There’s one good reason 20% of your portfolio should be in USD. His name is Steve, and he works for the government. Blame him. On Wednesday Steve said in a world where interest rates have started going up, ours may yet go down. And because the guy controls Canadian monetary policy (he prints all the […]

January 18, 2017 | Farewell, Welfare State

BALTIMORE – The tweet was never sent and never received… “Lying Otto von Bismarck set us up for bankruptcy! What was he thinking? Sad!!” Instead, Mr. Trump said last weekend that, far from trying to curb the promises and cut the costs of the welfare state, he was nearly ready to unveil a plan to […]

January 18, 2017 | Industrial Production Jumps Due to Weather: Good News Stops There

It commonplace to blame the weather for sub-par economic performance, but it’s rare to see reports give weather its due when when things look good. Today, the latter happened. Industrial production in December rose a sharp 0.8% compared to an Econoday consensus of 0.6%. However, the good news stops there. A weather-boosted 6.6 percent surge […]

January 18, 2017 | Straddling the Inauguration

If the stock market were to take a hellish dive on Monday, it’s not hard to imagine how the pundits will explain it: a reality check for investors who actually think Trump will be good for America.  Of course, any such weakness would have less to do with Trump than with cyclical forces that lie […]

January 18, 2017 | Death by China – Peter Navarro!

  The Trump Economic Doctrine will likely be dominated by the views of an economist called Peter Navarro. Mr. Navarro will head up the new department called The National Trade Council at the White House. This new department will represent a philosophy which is mostly non-Keynesian IMO. I just finished watching a video called Death […]

January 18, 2017 | Investment Results Should Be Measured From Market Trough To Trough

The news flow of the past decade (century+) confirms the truth about ‘trading’ financial markets. Unless one exploits some privileged advance or inside information (which is commonly done but generally illegal) or is using high frequency machines that allow them to take lightning speed advantage of slower moving capital (which should be illegal and no […]

January 17, 2017 | What Will 2017 Bring to the U.S. Housing Markets?

It’s that time of the year again when predictions run rampant about what’s going to happen to the U.S. housing market in 2017 — but rarely do following these predictions turn out to be the best advice. Instead, I have always believed that the markets are the best indicator of the future. Why?  The reason […]

January 17, 2017 | Ready or Not

Preferred shares scored in the last twelve months. As forecast. For example, the exchange-traded fund called CPD gained 21% since the lows of January past, beating every real estate market. Plus it came with a 5% dividend yielding cash flow. (Did your house do that?) And a dividend tax credit. The only things missing were […]

January 17, 2017 | A Role Model for Trump

Build the Fatherland. Kill a student. – Pro-Perón graffiti on buildings in Buenos Aires, circa 1952 BALTIMORE – “I’m not superstitious.” The answer showed such charming insouciance and in-your-face bravado that it might have come from the mouth of America’s president-elect. Instead, it was the reply given by former Argentine President Juan Domingo Perón – […]

January 17, 2017 | The Round Trip of Higher Oil Prices

Promised cuts enabled OPEC to talk up oil prices over the past few months (intended to boost the value of their planned Aramaco IPO in 2018), but the downside is that higher prices encourage higher production and ultimately a round trip back to lower prices.  U.S. oil production is growing again as shale comes out […]

January 17, 2017 | Biden “We Have No Freakin’ Idea What Trump’s Gonna Do”; Biden Announces 2020 Presidential Campaign

In the sappiest of sappy interviews, outgoing vice president Joe Biden looks back, and forward. ‘I Wish to Hell I’d Just Kept Saying the Exact Same Thing’ says Biden in a New York Times interview. The title is cryptic but it pertains to a speech Biden gave in July that he wishes he repeated more […]

January 17, 2017 | Two-State Solution, Inauguration, Division!

Some 70 nations met in Paris to discuss the situation between the Palestinians and the State of Israel on January 15. The conclusions (even though there were no leaders from Israel or the Palestinians in attendance) were somewhat final. The vote was for a two-state solution to this 100 years war between two historical brothers. […]

January 16, 2017 | Bad Choices

David’s a prairie moister. He’s 24, makes $46,000 a year (“I have great job security”) has three grand in his chequing account and $32,000 in a TFSA. Dave lives with his parents in Winnipeg, because “we both want me to save as much money as possible” Not bad for a kid. But all that liquid […]

January 16, 2017 | Shilling on Inflation Expectations, Technology, Productivity and the 35-Year Bond Bull

Financial analysts who are diligent in their measurements, and independent (as opposed to those who are mandated to perpetually flog financial products), are able to recognize and anticipate financial trends, risks and opportunities. Mean reversion is the immutable law. The hard part is that turns take time, and people generally have short attention spans and […]

January 16, 2017 | The Age of “Trumpismo”

BALTIMORE – “Trumpismo,” we said to a colleague on Friday. “That’s all you have to know.” We are looking forward to the next four years with a mixture of curiosity, dread, and rank voyeurism. Not that we know WHAT will happen. Not at all. But we have a hint about HOW it will come about. […]

January 16, 2017 | GM’s Chart Suggests U.S. Economy Will Keep on Truckin’

Investors who have been betting heavily on Trump since the election may be starting to wonder whether the stock market has overshot the bounds of their initial optimism. To be sure, this is an insubstantial brick in the proverbial wall of worry that is said to keep bull markets alive. But are the broad averages […]

January 16, 2017 | Make Insurance Cheap Again: Trump Promises Insurance for All

In an interview in the Washington Post, Trump Vows ‘Insurance for Everybody’ in Obamacare Replacement Plan. President-elect Donald Trump said in a weekend interview that he is nearing completion of a plan to replace President Obama’s signature health-care law with the goal of “insurance for everybody,” while also vowing to force drug companies to negotiate […]

January 16, 2017 | My Definition of: What is ‘CASH’?

The word ‘cash’ is not so easy to define today as most people view ‘cash’ as their dollar units in their cyber banking accounts. Cyber accounts are any accounts where dollar units are stored within the computer screen and which are not directly accessible as ‘paper’ notes to the owner. Cyber units get revealed as […]

January 16, 2017 | My TFSA Primer for 2017

“Many investors are wondering whether to pursue a TFSA or RRSP strategy. Quite simply, the TFSA, which started in 2009, compliments both the RRSP and RRIF.” It need not be an either/or approach. Wise investors embrace the TFSA in pursuit of long term goals, like retirement. I summarize my 2017 TFSA primer: 1.. How TFSAs […]

January 16, 2017 | Common Sense – 2017

“Without the pen of the author of Common Sense, the sword of Washington would have been raised in vain.” – John Adams Thomas Paine was born in 1737 in Britain. His first thirty seven years of life were pretty much a series of failures and disappointments. Business fiascos, firings, the death of his first wife […]

January 15, 2017 | Trump Slams NATO, Blasts EU as “Vehicle for Germany”, Seeks Deal With Russia, Threatens BMW

In an amazing set of interviews that proves Obama to be the lamest of lame duck presidents, Trump Slams NATO, Slams Germany, and Floats Russia Nuke Deal. Donald Trump called NATO obsolete, predicted that other European Union members would follow the U.K. in leaving the bloc, and threatened BMW with import duties over a planned […]

January 15, 2017 | Until They Don’t

The gap between Mecca and Misery grows ever wider. The latest stats reveal a steamy, demand-driven, low-supply real estate market in Toronto, and a dying-on-the-vine situation that’s developed in most other cities. ‘The last gasp” is how a Bloomberg article described the Kingdom of the GTA a few days ago. And it wasn’t fake news. […]

January 15, 2017 | What About Collectibles?

QUESTION: Hi Marty! I would like to have your thinking about one important thing: the exit of this mess. I was in the last two WEC with my friend Mark and enjoy them a lot and we will be on the next one for sure.The two months that follow the last one in November 2016, I […]

January 15, 2017 | Confidence Not Enough to Boost Economy

Today the US Commerce Department reported retail sales rose 0.6% in December from a month earlier.  Though helped by strong car sales and higher gas prices, sales in other categories were flat on the month and underscored how bad the holiday shopping season was for many retailers.  A key takeaway is that the reported Trump […]

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