ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
July 30, 2025 | EU and IMF Reconsider Funding Ukraine over Govt Corruption
Ukraine was well-known as the most corrupt nation in Europe, if not the world. This is why Ukraine was not permitted to join the European Union, as the bloc determined that the country needed to implement harsh anti-corruption measures if it wanted to join. The EU decided to give that same corrupt government endless […]
July 30, 2025 | Ware Phase of This Fourth Turning Has Arrived
“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward […]
July 29, 2025 | Financial Sobriety is a Rare Superpower Over Time
Speculative trading indicators measure froth in financial markets and indicate when speculators—rather than fundamental investors—are dominating market behavior. As shown below, since 1995, the rebound in speculative measures over the past three months has been one of the sharpest on record, and in rare company with now infamous bubble tops in 1999-2000 and 2021. The […]
July 29, 2025 | EVs Linked to Motion Sickness
New studies reveal that electric vehicles are causing an increase in motion sickness that surpasses the nausea felt while driving in the rattling cars of the 1970s. Motion sickness occurs when our bodily senses conflict with the movement we are experiencing, and the smooth drive of an EV could actually cause drivers and passengers […]
July 28, 2025 | Hoisington Q2 2025 Review and Outlook
Hoisington Management’s 2025 Second Quarter Review and Outlook is available here. At his June 18 press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell referred to tariffs as inflationary. Hoisington points out that this is only the first-round effect: Second, third, and later-round effects also come into play, causing the quantity demanded and price to decrease for the […]
July 27, 2025 | The Schema Frequency
QUESTION: Marty, they call you the legend since you have been calling markets and trends for decades. It is not hard to see that you are perhaps the greatest trader of all time. You are famous for not calling the 1987 Crash, but the very day of the low, you called the low and said […]
July 27, 2025 | Uncertainty Squared
Many people yearn for a simpler life. Ironically, that’s the one thing we’re almost guaranteed not to get. Technology keeps shifting the ground beneath us, mostly for the better, but also creates complications for businesses and individuals. The rules, especially from the government, seem to keep shifting, too. Everything around us just gets more and […]
July 27, 2025 | AI Profits Nowhere in Sight
Although the biggest players in the tech world have sunk trillions of dollars into AI research and development, none of them have made a dime. Will they ever? That’s a reasonable question, considering AI’s potential to change the world remains highly speculative. The investment frenzy continues to gain momentum nonetheless, recalling the South Sea Bubble of the […]
July 26, 2025 | Debt & War
Many have been writing in about the FT’s article on the UK surpassing China as the 2nd largest holder of US debt. While they understand I have laid out that ever since the Biden Administration that was in the hands of the Neocons began threatening China with war over Taiwan, and in the aftermath of […]
July 26, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for July 26, 2025
Markets are not expecting RISK! The leading global equity indices are at or near all-time highs. The S&P is up ~33% from the April lows, the NAZ is up ~42%. (NVDA is up >100%.) (Open interest in the S&P futures market fell to an 18-year low this week. Perhaps because one S&P futures contract is now […]
July 26, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday July 26th 2025
The Bottom Line Here comes equity market volatility! Lots of market moving news impacting North American equity markets this week including: FOMC and Bank of Canada’s decisions on interest rates on Wednesday. No changes in U.S. and Canadian administered rates are expected, but traders will watch closely for potential timing for future rate reductions […]
July 25, 2025 | Lofty Valuations for Tesla are at Risk
Tesla: Lofty Valuation, Slipping Fundamentals Tesla still carries a sky-high valuation — more than 100 times its projected profits. That kind of multiple has only shown up a handful of times in history, and only for a few companies. So, do the fundamentals support this kind of price? Let’s take a look. Tesla hit a […]
July 25, 2025 | Trucker Convoy Lawyer Debanked
Banks have the ability to debank customers at a moment’s notice. Canada successfully weaponized its banks against the people during the Trucker Convoy, a peaceful protest demanding the right to bodily autonomy during the COVID-19 vaccine mandates. Lawyer Eva Chipiuk, who represented the Trucker (Freedom) Convoy, received notice from the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) […]
July 24, 2025 | Japan’s Bond Market Crisis Intensifies – Has BOJ Finally Lost Control?
Japan, with its highest in human history per capita government debt, has been an accident waiting to happen for a long time. But somehow, it has always managed to slip out of whatever trap the financial markets set for it. Until now? Japanese interest rates have been rising, increasing government interest costs and leading traders […]
July 24, 2025 | Klarman on Finding Value and Maintaining Discipline
A world focused on selling us investment products and ideas spends little time defining sell or aversion rules. If someone tells you what they own or would buy, ask them when they would sell it. Most haven’t thought that far; they ride price cycles up and down with no plan to protect capital from drawdowns. […]
July 24, 2025 | China Continues to Offload US Treasuries
China has been offloading its US Treasury holdings for years. Once the top holder of US debt, China cut its US Treasury holdings for the third consecutive month this May. Total holdings have fallen to $756.3 billion from $757.2 billion in April, according to the US Treasury, marking the lowest debt held since May […]
July 23, 2025 | WTI Weakens As New EU Sanctions On Russia Lack Effectiveness. Crude Likely To Breach US$60/b In Coming Weeks.
Summary: President Trump has announced a trade deal with Japan opening the country to US sales of cars, trucks, rice and other agricultural food stuff. In return for a 15% tariff on Japanese exports (down from 25%) Japanese companies etc., plan on investing US$550B in the US. Importing US rice will alienate protected rice farmers. […]
July 23, 2025 | Meme-Stock Craze, Season Two
The 2023–2024 rate hikes and bear market wipeouts tamped down rampant retail speculation. But in 2025, rate cut expectations, along with AI-inspired price rebounds year to date, have reignited animal spirits. ChatGPT astutely observes that “Day trading’s resurgence may also reflect disillusionment with traditional investing timelines and frustration with affordability/inflation.” In other words, the masses are […]
July 23, 2025 | Cash Accepted Here – Payment Choice Act
Senators Kevin Cramer (R-ND) and John Fetterman (D-PA) have introduced bipartisan legislation, the Payment Choice Act, which would require businesses to accept cash payments. Money is merely the medium of exchange that someone is willing to accept for goods or services. Businesses across America have inadvertently contributed to the push toward a cashless society […]
July 22, 2025 | Institutions Decreasing Real Estate Purchases
Investors continue to snap up residential properties, as real estate has evolved into an investment class of its own. New reports show that between 2020 and 2023, investors were responsible for 18.5% of home purchases. In the first three months of 2025, investors composed 27% of all residential properties, marking the highest share in […]
July 21, 2025 | The Great Pivot
Happy Monday Morning! Last week we wrote a piece called The Only Game in Town, in which we argued CMHC has financed nearly 90% of all new rental construction in the country, up from just 5% in 2017. They have become the only game in town and the financial exposure was concerning in an environment where […]
July 21, 2025 | Grantham: Don’t Be Conned By Those Selling Shovels In The Gold Rush
The Next Twelve Months Price-to-Earnings ratio (NTM P/E, shown below courtesy of ISABELNET) is one of the historically relevant forward-looking valuation metrics that compares a company’s current share price to its projected earnings over the next 12 months. Today’s sky-high US equity valuations, highlighted in dark blue, are comparable only to the rare, infamous peaks of […]
July 21, 2025 | The Treaty of Versailles Part II?
Vladimir Putin has 580 billion additional reasons not to end the war. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz entered office with a clear intent to usher Germany into World War III. Not only has Merz mobilized troops and the largest military spending package in modern European history, but he is now demanding that Russia pay reparations […]
July 20, 2025 | Tomorrow’s Job Market: DO NOT Learn To Code – Do Become a Mining Engineer
In late 2023, I posted an article on how to develop the skills necessary to get through a protracted supply chain disruption: Skill Stacking, Part 1: Handymen Will Inherit the Earth. But since then, the stakes have gotten even higher. A financial/supply chain crisis is still coming. But now AI is altering the job market in […]