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Robert Campbell

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Robert Campbell is a real estate analyst and economist. He's been publishing The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter since 2002. His book (Timing the Real Estate Market) presents a clearly defined method for predicting the peaks and valleys of real estate cycles.

November 3rd, 2023 | There is No Free Lunch

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter -   From a Ben Bernanke speech in 2011:   “Perhaps the most important thing for people to understand about the federal budget is that maintaining the status quo is not an option. Creditors will not lend to a government whose debt, relative to national income, is rising without limit; so, one way or the other, […]

October 17th, 2023 | Good Time to Buy Gold?

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter -                For those of you who are on the hunt for opportunities beyond real estate, consider this: Managed money is back to a largish net short position in gold. The only other times managed money bet like this, gold did the following: Rallied 30% Rallied 32% Rallied 26%

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter -   U.S. National Debt is currently $33.5 TRILLION – and it’s rising by one BILLION dollars PER HOUR.   At the current pace, the US would add $1 trillion in Federal debt every 45 days.   U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – which represents the value of the goods and services produced in the United […]

October 1st, 2023 | Chart of the Decade

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter -     The monthly mortgage payment (P&I) for purchases of the median priced existing U.S. home (NAR) with a 20% down payment & average 30-year mortgage rate was $2,351 in August 2023 – up 140.6% since March 2020. The average hourly rate for all U.S. employees (BLS) has risen 21.7% since March 2020. Here in […] Radio - Inflation the biggest threat to US Economy

September 21st, 2023 | Update on Key Housing Indicator

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter -             [The above chart was presented in my Sept 2023 Timing Letter, as was the following transcript:]   “Based on the 1-2-3 chart pattern shown in the chart, odds are high that more months’ supply of homes for sale is going to start hitting the market in the months (and maybe years) ahead.”   […]

September 14th, 2023 | Oil Hits $90!

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter -   Crude oil just hit $90/barrel –  a new high for 2023 Oil prices are now up a massive 35% in just 3 months. Inflation always starts with energy.  

August 31st, 2023 | Good and Bad News

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter -   Let’s start with the bad news. Being that housing prices are high and affordability is ridiculously low, the pic is pretty much accurate – especially in California. The good news? History tells us that market conditions like this are temporary and won’t last forever. Housing prices will fall (and become affordable again) at the […] Radio - Should you sell your house now to get the highest price?

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter -     Since Jan 2023, mortgage rates show a chart pattern that is characterized by higher highs and higher lows. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.96% as of Aug 9th, 2023. Rates hit a 20-year high of 7.08% in Nov 2022. With the rate of inflation coming down, many real […]

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter -   If you want to know how much food has gone up in the last 12 months, don’t ask the US government – ask people who shop for food everyday. Based on a survey of 8,000 US grocery shoppers nationwide, they said food at home prices rose by an estimated 22.6% from April 2022 to […]

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter -                  I spend a lot of time thinking about the future – and where home prices will go from here. 2023:  Rental affordability has never been higher as compared to mortgage affordability. From my July 2023 Timing Letter: “Many believe that home ownership is always attractive as a way of avoiding paying rent, but […]

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter -       Wyndham Clark won the 2023 U.S. Open Golf Championship at the Los Angeles Country Club in Los Angeles, CA on Sunday, June 18, 2023.   Clark, 29, made his pro debut in 2017 and this win was his first major championship.   His Mom’s Words of Advice   “Play big” is what […]

June 1st, 2023 | Dead Man Walking?

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter -   [Taken from May 2023 Timing Letter] Is the U.S. economy a dead man walking? As illustrated in my May 2023 Timing Letter, U.S. money supply (M2) is falling at its fastest year-over-year rate since the 1930s, and is sending a highly negative signal for the economy, stocks, and real estate. Historically reliable recession indicators […]

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter -     Of course we do not live in the future, but investors have to be prepared for it.  Commercial RE prices fell 37% during the last downturn as investor expectations became too high in Sept 2007. And as is usually the case, when overly optimistic expectations are met with the reality that prices don’t […]

April 24th, 2023 | Capital Preservation First

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter -  Capital preservation first, capital growth second.  The greedy and the impatient will get mauled in this bear market.  

March 27th, 2023 | The Art of War/Investing

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter -     The Art of War has a wider application than warfare. It also applies to successful investing: Victory tends to go to those Generals who know when to fight – and when not to fight. The wise General does not engage with the enemy until the odds of victory are high.  

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter -                    The pessimist complains about the wind.                  The optimist expects it to change.                   The realist adjusts the sails.

February 21st, 2023 | Bear Market Strategy

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter -     If this housing cycle plays out like the cycles of the past 50 years, this bear market is going to be brutal.  Cavaet emptor. Unless you can buy at a significant discount to fair market value, do not buy because of fear of missing out (FOMO). We will use trend and momentum analysis […]

February 2nd, 2023 | Inflation History Lesson

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter -    “Once inflation goes above 5%, it has never come back down without the Fed Funds rate exceeding the CPI” ~ Stan Druckenmiller The CPI was 6.5% in December 2022 — while the Fed Funds rate is currently 4.33% Coming in January 2023 To help lower CPI readings, the Bureau of Labor Services is changing […]

December 23rd, 2022 | Liquor, Ladies and Leverage

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter -   A smart person knows that leverage comes with forward and reverse gears. Leverage works wonders when home prices are rising – but it can ruin you when prices are falling. I can give you research and signals, but it’s up to you to manage your own risk. Merry Christmas everybody!

December 20th, 2022 | A Tale of Two Housing Bubbles

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter - Home equity increased from $5 trillion to $15 trillion during the previous housing bubble – a 200% increase. During the current housing bubble, home equity increased from $8 trillion to $32 trillion – a 300% increase. What makes a superior real estate investor? Have market timing skills and know when to hold winning positions as […]

December 14th, 2022 | Teach a Man to Fish

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter -   The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter provides research and signals but it also teaches you how to make highly profitable buy and sell decisions on your own. Here are important indicators to follow … hint, hint: Existing home sales New home building permits Notice of mortgage defaults Foreclosure sales Mortgage rates Teach a man […]

The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter - “It takes five years to learn how to make money … and twenty-five to learn how not to lose it.”  – Nassim Taleb Whether a person realizes it or not, any body who earns more more than he spends is automatically an investor. The objective of investment is basically to store once’s excess purchasing power for future […]
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