But the information that follows is accurate, as I’m able to compute this data manually. In this week’s ‘Days to Cover’ chart, the Big 4 traders are short about 102 days of world silver production, up about 1 day from last week’s COT Report. The ‘5 through 8’ large traders are short an additional 55 days of world silver production, down about 2 days from last Friday’s report, for a total of about 157 days that the Big 8 are short — and down 1 day from last week’s COT Report. [Note: As you know, there are most likely three Managed Money traders in the Big 8 short category…one in the Big 4 — and now two in the Big ‘5 through 8’ category, according to Ted. This fact distorts the numbers you see above — and below, and the distortions in silver are now so great, that I’m not going to bother doing much in the way of calculations…just approximations.] That 157 days that the Big 8 traders are short, represents five months and a bit of world silver production, or 337.5 million troy ounces/67,490 COMEX contracts of paper silver held short by these eight traders…three of which are these Managed Money traders. Ted computed that the Big 8 commercial-only component of that 67,831 contracts was actually only around 32,000 contracts/160 million troy ounces, which works out to about 74 days of world silver production for the Big 8 commercial traders. And using Ted’s numbers for the Big 4 commercial-only shorts, the days held short by the Big 4 works out to 42 days of world production. These two ‘days of world production’ numbers…74 and 42…are vastly different than the 157 days and 102 days that the Big 8 and Big ‘5 through 8’ traders show on the Days to Cover chart above. This obviously means that the Managed Money traders are short the difference…which is a lot. That’s why the above chart should be looked at for its entertainment value only…particularly in silver. Ted says that it appears that his raptors, the small commercial traders other than the Big 8, are now net long the COMEX futures market by around 167,000 contracts…down from the about 192,500 contracts they were net long last week. And as I mentioned earlier, Ted says that this drop was delivery related, as they took delivery of most if not all of those 5,200 contracts that BofA delivered on First Notice Day last week. This number is subject to revision once he’s ‘slept on it’. I will make a change on the website version of today’s column once I read his weekly review later today. Never forget, that despite their small size, they are great in number…about 28 or so at last count — and still commercial traders in the commercial category. The Big 8 traders are short 48.8 percent of the entire open interest in silver in the COMEX futures market, which is virtually unchanged the 48.9 percent they were short in the last COT report. And once whatever market-neutral spread trades are subtracted out, that percentage would be close to the 55 percent mark. In gold, it’s 36.0 percent of the total COMEX open interest that the Big 8 are short, down a bit from the 37.9 percent they were short in last Friday’s COT Report — and something under the 45 percent mark once their market-neutral spread trades are subtracted out. But remember that the Big 8 shorts in silver now have three Managed Money traders in their midst — and most likely two Managed Money traders in gold, so these are not pure numbers, either. They are actually far less than stated, particularly in silver. The Big 4/8 commercial traders are still a force to be reckoned with in gold and silver, but now much diminished. They improved their situation even more in both during this past reporting week, particularly in silver. But these improvements have their limits, because at some point, the Managed Money traders et al. will refuse to go further short, or sell more longs — and once that moment arrives, prices can fall no further, as its their very acts of doing that is what causes prices to fall. But up to this point, that limit certainly hasn’t been reached…which is amazing. As I keep reminding you in this spot every Saturday, the circumstances in silver have been altered by an unimaginable [and monstrously bullish] amount by Ted’s discovery of the 1 billion troy ounce physical short position in silver that Bank of America holds in the OTC market, courtesy of JPMorgan & Friends…along with the big increase in Goldman’s derivatives position in silver in that market, as shown in the latest OCC Report for Q1/2022…which Ted figures is a long position. The latest OCC Derivatives Report for Q1/2022 was posted a bit over two months ago now– and Ted had a lot to say about it in the public domain at that time — and that’s linked here if you wish to refresh your memory. The new OCC report for Q2/2022 won’t be out for about another two weeks. The situation regarding the Big 4/8 concentrated commercial short positions in silver, gold [and in platinum for those commercial traders in the Producer/ Merchant category] is still obscene to some extent, but as I mentioned a few paragraphs ago, has decreased drastically as of late…especially in the Big 4 in silver these past two weeks. As Ted has been pointing out ad nauseam forever, the resolution of the Big 4/8 short positions will be the sole determinant of precious metal prices going forward…with that resolution currently still a work in progress, obviously. And, as always, nothing else matters — and I certainly look forward to what he has to say in his weekly review later this afternoon EDT. |