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Bill Bonner

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Is an American author of books and articles on economic and financial subjects. He is the founder and president of Agora Publishing, and author of the daily financial column, Diary of a Rogue Economist.

Bill Bonner's Diary - GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Have you ever wondered what you would do if you had a health emergency in a remote location? We never thought about it… until last week. Then we found out. Place at the End Up at the ranch… five hours from the nearest emergency room… your editor began having symptoms of what […]

Bill Bonner's Diary - GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Today, we look at what is going on in Venezuela. For amusement as well as for instruction. As long-term Diary readers know, we are connoisseurs of financial disaster. In Venezuela in 2017, we think we see an especially good vintage. But before we get to that, we introduce our Doom Index. — […]

May 19th, 2017 | Ambushed by Originarios

Bill Bonner's Diary - GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – We rode out to one of the high valleys on Sunday. Leading the way were the ranch foreman, Gustavo, and his son, Agostín. Agostín is 10 years old. But he is already a gaucho – sure of himself on a horse… unafraid of the cows… ready to work from sunup to sundown, […]

Bill Bonner's Diary - GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Yesterday, stocks fell. And volatility shot up. Reports Bloomberg: The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled more than 370 points, Treasuries rallied the most since July and volatility spiked higher as the turmoil surrounding the Trump administration roiled financial markets around the globe. Major U.S. stock indexes tumbled the most in eight months, […]

Bill Bonner's Diary - GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – The Dow was flat yesterday. Investors must have been distracted by the latest tempest in the Washington teapot. Did President Trump say something he shouldn’t have? He told the Russians that terrorists were trying to make bombs out of laptop computers. No kidding! Trump was careful to get the gunmen and the […]

Bill Bonner's Diary - GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Two very different things happened over the weekend. They are connected in a telling way. First, hackers hit some 200,000 computers in 150 countries with “ransomware.” Second, we received a summons to appear before a mandatory “mediation” with the “Diaguita community” – a group claiming indigenous rights that is trying to take […]

Bill Bonner's Diary - GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – “The U.S. Economy Is Back on Track,” read a Bloomberg headline over the weekend. Apparently, inflation and consumer spending picked up last month. We are so glad to hear it. And last week, New York Fed President William Dudley said the U.S. central bank might begin lightening its load of bonds this […]

Bill Bonner's Diary - GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Pssst… Dear reader… Want to make some big money, fast? We’re not gamblers. We’re not speculators. And we’re no good at predicting the future. But we see what looks like an RSP, a Really Simple Pattern, that may pay off. We summarize in poetic terms: It is always dawnest before the dark. […]

Bill Bonner's Diary - SALTA, ARGENTINA – Public life is always a hoot… People of sound mind and reasonable judgment in their personal lives take on characters full of unwarranted confidence and intolerant insistence in public. The couple whose son has a “drug problem” wants the government to start a nationwide treatment program. The guy who can’t get his […]

Bill Bonner's Diary - GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – As longtime Diary sufferers know, we don’t do real stock analysis. We just look for Really Simple Patterns (RSPs). The simplest we’ve discovered so far: If a market is cheap now, it will probably be less cheap before you get around to investing in it. If it is very expensive, it will […]

Bill Bonner's Diary - SALTA, ARGENTINA – Today, we write about corporate earnings. Unless you’re playing the game of “greater fool” – buying in the hope that someone out there is willing to pay a higher price – the only reason to buy a stock is for its earnings. As a shareholder, you participate in the business’s profits. All […]

Bill Bonner's Diary - SALTA, ARGENTINA – Yesterday, we visited the museum in the center of Salta. It is a museum of the history of the city and the province, set in the repurposed town hall in the main square. We had begun the day by going to mass in the old cathedral across the square – an ornate […]

Bill Bonner's Diary - CACHI, ARGENTINA – Here at the Diary we have fun ridiculing the pretensions, absurdities, and hypocrisies of the ruling classes. But there is a serious side to it, too. Mockery makes us laugh. And laughing helps us wiggle free from the kudzu of fake news. Seeming Contradiction Reading the Diary mailbag (see below), it is […]

May 5th, 2017 | Recession Dead Ahead

Bill Bonner's Diary - GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Today, an update on our Doom Index… But first, a brief note on life at the ranch… Yesterday, we did our second cattle roundup; the government requires two vaccinations 21 days apart. So, the gauchos saddled up before dawn and set out for the huge pasture to the east of the house. […]

May 3rd, 2017 | We’re With POTUS

Bill Bonner's Diary - GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Poor DJT. It doesn’t seem to matter what he says; the press is all over him. A presidential tweet: “Our country needs a good ‘shutdown.’” The commentators couldn’t believe it. It was “unthinkable,” they said, for a sitting president to suggest closing up shop of his own government! But once again, we’re […]

Bill Bonner's Diary - GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Today, we leave the world of overpriced stocks and claptrap politics behind. Instead, we will just tell you what happened over the weekend here at the ranch. Monday was May Day in Argentina, as it was in much of the world. It was beautiful autumn weather here in the Calchaquí Valley. The […]

May 1st, 2017 | Tech Wreck Coming

Bill Bonner's Diary - GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – This week, we got a visit from an Austrian man who recently retired and is spending five years traveling the world. He has a specially outfitted four-wheel-drive Toyota with such marvels as heated water for a shower, a stove, a kayak, and an iridium-based alarm system. Bill encounters a truck prepared to […]

Bill Bonner's Diary - GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Trump! Great guy! Big, dumb, hopeless. Menacing. Reckless. And completely loveable. Here’s The New York Times’ list of “winners” from his tax proposal: Businesses with high tax rates. The plan would cut the 35% corporate income tax to 15%. While few businesses pay the full 35% rate, those that pay something close […]

April 27th, 2017 | We ♥ Donald Trump

Bill Bonner's Diary - GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Team Trump came forward yesterday and laid what it claimed was the “biggest tax cut in history” on the table. Before we go on, we should say “We love this guy.” If you’ve been reading the Diary for a while, you know that, thanks to the feds, rich people have gotten much […]

Bill Bonner's Diary - GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – “Watch out, Bill. The originarios almost killed someone up the valley,” our lawyer warned us. “He’s still in a coma.” The latest news isn’t very encouraging. The originario problem was supposed to have calmed down. Ranch Invasion Last year, they invaded our ranch and blocked the roads. We called the police, who […]

April 25th, 2017 | “The Donald” at Bat

Bill Bonner's Diary - GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Once again, the big man steps up to the plate. Once again, he points his bat at the far bleachers. This is going to be “bigger, I believe, than any tax cut in history.” And once again, the fans go wild. The Dow shot up 216 points yesterday as investors dreamed of […]

April 24th, 2017 | We’ve Been Hacked

Bill Bonner's Diary - GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Remember that property we bought in Virginia? The agent had asked that we send a down payment and promised to send wiring details. But when the details arrived, there was something fishy about them. “Why would a real estate agent in Virginia ask for money to be wired to a bank in […]

April 21st, 2017 | Fed Will Blink

Bill Bonner's Diary - GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – The Dow rose 174 points yesterday. And Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said we’d have a new tax system by the end of the year. Animal spirits were restless. But which animals? Dumb oxes? Or wily foxes? Probably both. But what caught our attention were the central bankers strutting across the yard and […]

Bill Bonner's Diary - GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – The Dow was down 118 points yesterday. It should be down a lot more. Of course, markets know more than we do. And maybe this market knows something that makes sense of these high prices. What we see are reasons to sell, not reasons to buy. Paycheck to Paycheck Nearly half of […]

Bill Bonner's Diary - CAFAYATE, ARGENTINA – The Dow fell about 100 points yesterday. It’s not hard to see why… Factory output dropped the most since last August, led by declining auto sales. Meanwhile, housing starts are at a four-month low. Bank loans are slipping. Commercial property is “rolling over.” Consumers have tapped out. And the Fed’s GDP growth […]
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