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September 23, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday September 23rd 2023
The Bottom Line North American equity indices and related stocks are closely following their weakest period of the year from the second week in September to the second week in October. Broadly based U.S. equity indices completed Double Top or Head & Shoulders patterns (including a double top pattern the Dow Jones Industrial Average on […]
September 22, 2023 | Stock Market Traders Wishing for Rate Cuts Will Be Disappointed
The U.S. stock market sold off this week after the Federal Reserve announced that rates will have to stay higher for longer. But the stock market should be careful what it wishes for. The record shows clearly that rate cuts are usually bad for the stock market and the economy. This week Jerome Powell, chair […]
September 22, 2023 | Finally, The Housing Crash
Spiking interest rates are normally a death knell for homebuilders, for obvious reasons. Higher mortgage rates raise monthly payments, which crash house prices, which make existing houses cheaper than newly built ones, which causes demand for new houses to shrink, which causes homebuilders to lay off their workers and sell their spec houses and excess […]
September 22, 2023 | Stocks Tank on Fed’s ‘Hawkish’ Pause
Excellent overview of key data in this segment. Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her views on the September meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). Filmed on September 20, shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference. Here is a direct video link.
September 21, 2023 | Trump Promises Largest Deportation in US History
Illegal aliens are pouring into America from the southern and northern borders. Cities have been destroyed, public places overrun, and local governments are wiping out their budgets to support these intruders. US citizens are beginning to clash with refugees, as was witnessed in Staten Island, NY, when people tried to prevent migrants from exiting […]
September 21, 2023 | Falling Incomes and Forced Home Sales
Lucid insights on macro conditions and the housing cycle in this segment. Homeowners in America have run out of money in 2023, which could spark a wave of panic selling that will cause inventory to surge. Here is a direct video link.
September 21, 2023 | Update on Key Housing Indicator
[The above chart was presented in my Sept 2023 Timing Letter, as was the following transcript:] “Based on the 1-2-3 chart pattern shown in the chart, odds are high that more months’ supply of homes for sale is going to start hitting the market in the months (and maybe years) ahead.” […]
September 21, 2023 | Quick Video: CBDCs “Sound Like Fascism
From today’s Jimmy Dore show: Digital Currency = Total Control The G-20 just announced a global regulatory framework for central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs. The central banks have been partnering with governments and private corporations to usher this in. Kind of sounds like fascism, doesn’t it? You’ve already witnessed how central banks have been using […]
September 20, 2023 | Bonfire Of The Silver Shorts
After 40 years of silver price manipulation and suppression on the COMEX, the physical market has experienced a lack of production growth and enhanced demand brought about by too-low silver prices. According to the immutable law of supply and demand, silver is now in a deepening physical shortage in which sharply higher prices are both […]
September 20, 2023 | What This $100 Billion Ghost City Says About China’s Realty Crisis
Country Garden, once seen as one of China’s most stable property developers, is now struggling financially, leaving the future of unfinished megadevelopments like Malaysia’s Forest City in doubt. Here’s how overbuilding, and a streak of bad luck, have left China’s real-estate developers in the red. Here is a direct video link. This entry was posted
September 20, 2023 | Peter Zeihan: China Is Collapsing — Now
Demographer and geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan is known for his brutally harsh take on China’s prospects. But the collapse he saw coming was always in the indeterminate future. But in his latest video, he seems to have moved the terminal date up to … today. Some bullet points: Chairman Xi has eliminated anyone capable of […]
September 20, 2023 | Pix System in Brazil
You likely have not heard of the Pix system unless you live in Brazil. Pix is an “instant payment ecosystem” launched on November 16, 2020, by Brazil’s central bank (BCB). Pix primarily works through the use of QR codes that users use to access their digital accounts for payments. The pandemic helped push people to […]
September 19, 2023 | Becoming Invisible, Part 10: Your WiFi Can See you
Bombthrower.com’s Mark Jeftovic just posted a must-read story from one of his favorite techies. As you’ll see, it’s something we should all be aware of. Your WiFi Can See You Follow Mr. E on Substack and Twitter! When police suspected Danny Kyllo, an Oregon man, of growing cannabis in his home they drove to his house with a thermal imaging […]
September 19, 2023 | BOC: Elevated Investor Ownership Magnifies Real Estate Downside
In a September 8th update entitled, Indicators of Financial Vulnerabilities, the Bank of Canada (BOC) notes that in Q1 2023, so-called investors owned 30 percent of mortgaged homes in Canada, up from 20 percent before the pandemic. See, Investors took a bigger chunk of the housing market during the pandemic, data shows. In the first quarter […]
September 19, 2023 | Worst “Rent” Inflation since 1983 & Red-Hot Homeownership CPI Fuel Canada’s CPI Surge. Bank of Canada in a Pickle of its Own Making
In a nasty big surprise of the type that inflation, once it’s running loose, likes to dish out, the Consumer Price Index in Canada re-accelerated in August for the second month in a row, to 4.0% year-over-year, according to Statistics Canada today, up from 3.3% in July, and 2.8% in June (red line in the […]
September 19, 2023 | The Gates of Hell
I think Bill Gates will go down in history as in the list of the top 5 demons who have waged war against humanity. He represents what some call the Gates of Hell. Nobody will stop this guy; he is out to reduce the world’s population, no different than Hitler or Stalin. Nothing this guy […]
September 18, 2023 | Play Ball
Happy Monday Morning! Over the past several months we’ve been highlighting the marked slowdown in residential building permits, a leading indicator of future supply. This is what happens when the cost of capital doubles, and in some cases, triples. Souce: Ben Rabidoux This is a disaster in the making for a federal government insistent on […]
September 18, 2023 | Greta Poses for the Cameras Amid Arrest
Greta Thunberg is willing to defy the authorities to fight climate change, or at least that is what they want you to believe. They paint this young girl as a radical activist when she is planted counter-opposition. Greta was arrested for the second time last week for refusing to leave a sit-in at a protest […]
September 18, 2023 | Gold Is Doing Great — In Other Currencies
Gold’s job is to hold its value while the local currency is inflated away. Which is another way of saying gold goes up when local currencies go down. The most glaring current example is Japan, where a multi-decade experiment in artificially depressed interest rates is finally coming undone. Inflation is rising, the yen is falling versus other […]
September 18, 2023 | Mind The Credit Cycle
Bank lending is contracting across world economies. The percentage of US banks tightening their credit to large and medium firms (below since 1990 via Tier 1 Alpha) now above 40%–was only seen during the 2020 pandemic, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2001 Dotcom bust, and the 1990-91 recession. As higher interest rates freeze existing home […]
September 17, 2023 | What if Joe Biden Dies?
Someone recently asked what would happen if Joe Biden happened to die leading up to the election. The answer is not as simple as Kamala becoming president, but it all depends on when he hypothetically dies. The majority of states have a filing deadline of January 1, 2024. If any potential presidential candidate dies between […]
September 17, 2023 | A Stroll Down Disinflation Lane
[Last week’s commentary on the gathering economic storm elicited a light-hearted reminiscence from our friend Richard Charles of Alpine Capital. You’ll find his recollection of some notable deflationists enlightening, and there’s also a new word — screwflation — he has coined to describe a phenomenon that has yet to gain traction with eggheads at some of […]
September 16, 2023 | Are Social Justice Warriors Ready to Put Their Wallet Where There Mouth Is?
@liberty..hangout #libertyhangout ♬ original sound – Liberty Hangout
September 16, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday September 16th 2023
The Bottom Line History suggests that short term caution is warranted for a new investment in North American equity markets. According to www.EquityClock.com , “The weakest time of year for stocks is at our doorstep, encompassing the final weeks in the third quarter. Between September 19th and the last day of the month on September […]
September 16, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For September 15, 2023
KING Dollar rises for NINE consecutive weeks The USDX hit a 15-month low in mid-July but has rallied >5% since then. (I’ve called mid-July a Key Turn Date as several macro markets reversed course then.) The USD looks attractive as the Eurozone and China/Asia are slowing. American “exceptionalism” draws capital. The Euro traded at a 17-month high in mid-July but […]