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April 23, 2018 | Are We There Yet?

  It increasingly feels like we may soon get the gold price move we’ve been waiting for. I thought we wouldn’t see it until autumn, but I now think we could get a spring rally. That will help all the gold explorers and developers on the HRA list. Several of the latter are already outperforming […]

April 9, 2018 | The Old Normal

Gold got a nice lift off after a widely expected rate hike, but it’s been flat to down as markets have been trading very strangely against each other.  We’ve seen continued high levels of volatility, but those haven’t translated to real risk aversion on the part of equity traders. Add the politics, namely a trade […]

March 10, 2018 | Tug of War

The markets have calmed down a bit but the White House is injecting plenty of political uncertainty.  I’m surprised Wall St is taking things as well as it is.  Seems like traders think tax cuts (excuse the pun) trump everything else.  We’ll see.  The complacency didn’t work out so well a month ago so I […]

February 16, 2018 | It’s Official

Well, THAT was exciting, wasn’t it? No?  OK, things did get a bit hairy there and its too early yet to say that we’re out of the woods.  Traders are still extremely skittish and will be for a while.  We’ve had a couple of green days in a row, but they were not booming up […]

February 3, 2018 | The Fear/No Fear Market

So far, so good.   That may not be your immediate take away as you read the rest of the first page but I’m fairly content with how the first month of the year is unfolding. Yes, I think we may be in for an immanent correction on the major equity markets.  But I think that […]

November 28, 2017 | Tax Loss Season – Threat or Opportunity?

Thanks again to those of you who came out to MIF on November 10th and 11th.   We had a full house again and a great group of speakers and presenters.  The newsletter writer presentations have been uploaded to the Beneath the Surface channel on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/user/BeneathTheSurfaceBTS) and the corporate presentation will soon follow for those […]

October 31, 2017 | More Trick Than Treat

Gold continued to struggle this month.  Sentiment in the gold space has been poor too.  I think the main culprit is the complete lack of risk aversion.  I’ve seen plenty of commentary lately about the USD doing damage to the gold price but that doesn’t seem like much of an argument when you look at […]

October 12, 2017 | The Fed Strikes Back

Well that sucked.   After a move to $1380 gold quickly turned tail and gave up its gains. That took some of the speculative shine off the market.  One piece of good news is that gold equities are still trading (slightly) better than bullion which is generally a positive sign even when gold’s behaving poorly. Northern […]

September 12, 2017 | Breakout

After a few false starts, gold has finally broken through $1300 convincingly, and looks comfortable at its current perch at $1340.  It would be easy to blame it all on politics but, as I noted in the last issue, I don’t think that’s the case.  It’s an overdue move and the initial move through $1300 […]

August 22, 2017 | Not Just Politics

The USD got its bounce thanks to the payroll report but it wasn’t a strong one and is dissipating already. Surprising the bounce wasn’t larger given the huge short position. North Korea turned out to be a whipsaw. The gold price was lifted, then knocked back, as the tension mounted then receded. Gold has other […]

August 5, 2017 | Reporting Season

The trend to a weaker US Dollar and strengthening gold, and base metal, prices continues.  As I note in the main editorial, there are 2-3 data points dead ahead that should determine whether the oversold greenback gets a bounce.  I say “should” because the clown show in Washington keeps getting in the way of economic […]

July 28, 2017 | It’s Complicated

Things changed a lot in the past two weeks. The US Fed’s promises to keep tightening financial conditions look a lot shakier than they did at the start of the month, thanks to a series of weak economic readings in the US. I still think we need to be wary of central bankers but with […]

July 14, 2017 | A Passive Aggressive Market

I really hate sounding like the “boy who cried wolf” when it comes to major markets.  Nonetheless, I’m shocked at how little impact central bankers have had as they all started talking, planning or threatening tightening.  Traders on Wall St in particular seem completely unconcerned by these comments. Clearly, traders don’t believe central bank words […]

June 15, 2017 | Is GDXJ “A Thing”?

You can sense the frustration when you talk to anyone trading gold producers or large developers.  Gold has staged something of a comeback and there are good reasons to think that should continue.  You’d never know it to look at the main gold stock indices though.  They are lagging badly. The editorial in this issue […]

May 4, 2017 | Just Go With It

Trump hasn’t started a war. Yet. Other market worries like the French election also turned out to be overblown—so far at least. We’ve seen some zigs and zags in the past two weeks as the market bought into, then dismissed, then bought into the reflation trade.  I remain cautious for both political and economic reasons […]

March 20, 2017 | Colour Me Surprised (Ok, Not)

The Fed raised rates as expected and the world didn’t come to an end, also as expected.  Metals have had a nice bounce post Fed that I’m fairly comfortable will continue in gold’s case at least and perhaps base metals as well. As always there was a deluge of PDAC news, much of it less […]

March 5, 2017 | The Curse

Traders are starting to bail in advance of PDAC.  That’s usually a wise move, though the editorial lays out some counter arguments. Even if your preference is to do some selling I think you need to be selective and look at which stocks are more likely to weather a pullback.  It may seem counter-intuitive but […]

February 5, 2017 | And So It Begins

Welcome to the Trump Years, and the Year of the Rooster.  The markets were entertained, until today. Traders seemed to assume Trump would enact all the things Wall St liked and none of the things it doesn’t.  However, the immigration ban looks in its final form it should disabuse Wall St of the notion that […]

January 21, 2017 | A Pivotal Year?

Gold took another drubbing after the December Fed meeting but its managed to fight its way back above the level it was trading at right before the meeting. It’s still well below the levels it traded at before the US election.  The Trump honeymoon isn’t over yet though NY markets are finding it tougher to […]

January 6, 2017 | The Inflation President?

Vive Le Trump.  Vive Le DJIA! It’s all good.  Unless you own gold stocks.  We’ve endured a couple more weeks of pain.  All bottoms have been false bottoms so far.  We may have to survive a couple more but the FOMC meeting tomorrow should set the tone.  I’m betting on higher gold prices going through […]

January 12, 2016 | Yellen Comes Down the Chimney

You heard it from Janet Yellen.  “Economic expansions (and by extension bull markets) don’t die of old age.”  That’s true.   But they do die from excess, policy mistakes and Wall St Stoopid.  Seven years of zero interest rates have created plenty of capital misallocation, mal-investment and yield chasing.  We’ve seen some minor debacles in the […]

December 8, 2015 | Year-End Inflection Points: Dead Ahead

Over to you, Draghi and Yellen. This month, like many other months recently it’s the intentions of central bankers that are dominating the markets.   It’s widely expected that the ECB and US Fed will drift even further apart in their basic policy stances this month.   I’m pretty sure that view will turn out to be […]

November 18, 2015 | Janet’s Kool-Aid Stand

It’s all good.  Just ask Janet Yellen or any hawkish Federal Reserve board member.  Indeed, there have been some better readings on the US economy lately but things are far from outstanding.  Plenty of equity traders suddenly expect new highs on the major markets any day now.  The bond market is pricing in 70%+ probability […]