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December 2, 2019 | Eye of the Beholder

Anyone who was paying attention or writing placement cheques in the last month knows that things went from warm to very cold in the resource space over a very short length of time. I talked about how I thought we needed to shake out some speculative longs in the gold market last issue. I’m surprised […]

November 9, 2019 | Jay’s Got Your Back

The chart below sends as clear a signal about the next US Federal Reserve meeting as you’re likely to get. The market is pricing in a 90%+ probability of a rate cut later this week. In theory, the FOMC could surprise everyone by not cutting but the chances of that happening are close to zero. […]

October 27, 2019 | Conflicting Signals

The US Fed meeting went much as I expected, though more hawkish than most of Wall St expected. Even so, markets reacted with reasonable calm to that and several other events in the past couple of weeks. I continue to be impressed by how stable equity markets are, really, given the mayhem in so many […]

September 21, 2019 | Down the Rabbit Hole

Happy September! Traditionally one of the worst months of the year for large cap equity traders and one of the best ones for resource investors. (Just trying to maintain the festive mood here.) I think this year’s September will be true to form though, honestly, this is one of the toughest markets to handicap I’ve […]

August 18, 2019 | The Adjustment Bureau

(Note: I started this editorial a few days ago and have had to edit it and update charts several times along the way. Things are moving fast, and the days of low volatility are over, perhaps for an extended period. That’s great for gold but do not lose sight that we’ve entered a dangerous market […]

July 12, 2019 | It’s On (For Gold, At Least)

  If you don’t feel like reading, you can just gaze at the chart below. It gets about 90% of the point across. Ever since US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reversed the Fed’s hawkish stance in December, markets, especially the bond market, have been pricing in an increasing number of rate cuts through the […]

May 23, 2019 | Floatation Device

Spring is in the air on Wall St, and traders’ thoughts have turned to unicorns, earnings beating (duh) “expectations” and, of course, romantic overtures from an accommodating US Federal Reserve. Admittedly, Wall St felt a little jilted after the last Fed meeting. FOMC Chair Powell said during the post-meeting presser that the Fed might hold […]

April 25, 2019 | A Self-Dealing Market

While the resource sector has been decidedly ‘meh’ for the past couple of months, going precisely nowhere, you can’t say the same for the Big Board. As the chart below shows, the SPX has been doing just fine. It’s only a couple of percent from its all-time highs. We know most of that can be […]

March 27, 2019 | Cursed?

Hell if I know. If you’re a resource investor, you know what I’m talking about. The infamous “PDAC curse”. It’s the bane of resource investors everywhere, striking fear into their hearts as the ides of March approach. Truth is, its usually a smart money move to assume a pullback heading into late March and again […]

March 8, 2019 | Bipolar Base Metals

There seem to suddenly be a lot of base metal bulls suddenly. It’s not chart based, at least for most base metals. Prices look better than they did a couple of months ago. I wouldn’t call most base metals charts bullish just yet, though I’d say copper is the exception. Some of this is fundamentals, […]

February 15, 2019 | Wall Street’s B*tch?

  Ok, not very nice of me. But, really, I’m not sure what other phrase describes the US Federal Reserve better. It sure as hell fits Wall Street’s own thinking. Make no mistake, traders at Wall and Broad are convinced the Fed is locked in to do their bidding. It’s party on dude! And, let’s […]

January 21, 2019 | …Chicken, Egg, Chicken…

This is the first part of the traditional “how big an idiot can I look like” start of the year editorial. I’ll go into metals and oil in the next issue but, this year, the equity market will be driving the bus so I’ll look at that first, with a bit of gold tacked on. […]

September 6, 2018 | Autumn Colours

Events conspired to give us a small bounce in the gold price. Nothing amazing but at least a move in the right direction. The positive news was, for once, magnified in the junior sector. We just had the best couple of weeks on the Venture exchange we’ve had for a long time, including ten straight […]

August 15, 2018 | Negativity

  It’s fair to say, if you like gold, you probably see yourself as at least partially as a contrarian. Some would say completely contrarian, but I would resist that label. I follow a lot of metals and they respond quite differently to market forces most of the time. I don’t consider myself a “gold […]

July 31, 2018 | The Little Tweet That Could?

Things continued to get worse for the gold market through the dog days of July. We’re all playing “how low can it go” now. The only good news in the gold market is that the bearish positioning is now almost as extreme as the bullish positioning in the US Dollar market. We’re overdue for some […]

July 8, 2018 | Gut Check

Ugly, ugly, ugly. Yet more proof that trying to predict the gold market short term is a mug’s game. The metals markets didn’t do us any favours as June wore on but at least we got good news from several HRA list companies to cushion the blow. I’m expecting more good news on several fronts […]

June 19, 2018 | The Waiting Game

Buckle up. We could have a smooth ride over the next few trading sessions, but that seems like an over-optimistic scenario. There are several market moving events that will determine the short and medium term trajectory of the precious metals markets and set the tone for the summer. Based on recent history, we should be […]

April 23, 2018 | Are We There Yet?

  It increasingly feels like we may soon get the gold price move we’ve been waiting for. I thought we wouldn’t see it until autumn, but I now think we could get a spring rally. That will help all the gold explorers and developers on the HRA list. Several of the latter are already outperforming […]

April 9, 2018 | The Old Normal

Gold got a nice lift off after a widely expected rate hike, but it’s been flat to down as markets have been trading very strangely against each other.  We’ve seen continued high levels of volatility, but those haven’t translated to real risk aversion on the part of equity traders. Add the politics, namely a trade […]

March 10, 2018 | Tug of War

The markets have calmed down a bit but the White House is injecting plenty of political uncertainty.  I’m surprised Wall St is taking things as well as it is.  Seems like traders think tax cuts (excuse the pun) trump everything else.  We’ll see.  The complacency didn’t work out so well a month ago so I […]

February 16, 2018 | It’s Official

Well, THAT was exciting, wasn’t it? No?  OK, things did get a bit hairy there and its too early yet to say that we’re out of the woods.  Traders are still extremely skittish and will be for a while.  We’ve had a couple of green days in a row, but they were not booming up […]

February 3, 2018 | The Fear/No Fear Market

So far, so good.   That may not be your immediate take away as you read the rest of the first page but I’m fairly content with how the first month of the year is unfolding. Yes, I think we may be in for an immanent correction on the major equity markets.  But I think that […]

November 28, 2017 | Tax Loss Season – Threat or Opportunity?

Thanks again to those of you who came out to MIF on November 10th and 11th.   We had a full house again and a great group of speakers and presenters.  The newsletter writer presentations have been uploaded to the Beneath the Surface channel on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/user/BeneathTheSurfaceBTS) and the corporate presentation will soon follow for those […]

October 31, 2017 | More Trick Than Treat

Gold continued to struggle this month.  Sentiment in the gold space has been poor too.  I think the main culprit is the complete lack of risk aversion.  I’ve seen plenty of commentary lately about the USD doing damage to the gold price but that doesn’t seem like much of an argument when you look at […]

October 12, 2017 | The Fed Strikes Back

Well that sucked.   After a move to $1380 gold quickly turned tail and gave up its gains. That took some of the speculative shine off the market.  One piece of good news is that gold equities are still trading (slightly) better than bullion which is generally a positive sign even when gold’s behaving poorly. Northern […]

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