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Jack Crooks
Jack has over 20 years experience in the currency, equity, and futures arena. He is an investment advisor who has held key positions in brokerage, money management, trading, and research. Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He was also founder of Ross International Asset Management (specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients) and General Manager of Plexus Trading (specializing in currency futures and commodities trading).
October 9th, 2020 | Limits To Monetary and Fiscal Policy Methinks…
Black Swan Currency Currents - “The hottest places in hell are reserved for those who, in times of great moral crisis, maintain their neutrality.” ― Dante Alighieri I presented the following chart below during showing the nasty feedback loop of rising debt and weak global demand during a webinar back in 2015 (and had developed the diagram a few years […]
October 5th, 2020 | Wall Street Loves Japanifcation of US Monetary Polcy
Black Swan Currency Currents - …not so good for the real economy…
September 25th, 2020 | Can You Say: It’s All One Market–Risk Assets? Sure, I knew ya could…
Black Swan Currency Currents - Gold vs. GBP/USD vs. $ Index vs. S&P 500 (inverted)…one big happy family moving together… 0 Likes Share
September 5th, 2020 | Expanding Wedge Patterns Complete? GBP/USD & AUD/USD….
Black Swan Currency Currents - …if so, we could see a deeper correction than most expect.
August 21st, 2020 | EUR/GBP Chartview – 240-Min and Weekly…
Black Swan Currency Currents - What if the pound outruns the euro as the US dollar breaks down? Given the extreme long positioning in the euro, measured by CME currency futures, and the negative positioning as of last Friday for the pound despite its rally, out-performance of the pound would not surprise. I.E. there is a lot of positive sentiment […]
August 4th, 2020 | Gold: Parabolic Financial Speculation, But Not Inflation!
Black Swan Currency Currents - Gold is in parabolic mode. Everyone loves it. Inflation and safe haven and the end of the dollar are the rationales. 1) This is not inflation. If it were, corn (green line overlaid) and all the other real stuff would be blowing off. It isn’t. 2) This is not the end of the dollar yet; […]
July 31st, 2020 | Norwegian Krone: Backdoor Way To Play Euro and Oil Weakness?
Black Swan Currency Currents - USD/NOK has a tight negative correlation with the euro. And as suspected, the currency is also impacted by oil prices. We suspect oil goes lower given the dismal demand in the real economy. Below a look at USD/NOK with EUR/USD (inverse) overlaid and our Wave view on oil. Oil (WTI) Daily:
July 16th, 2020 | FX VS. Asset Class Correlations Analysis (1-Year vs 30-Days)
Black Swan Currency Currents - I haven’t shared this for a while, but here is a look at various asset class correlations with key forex we follow. Two different time frames so you can see the changes. We have one-year vs. 30-days. Some abbreviations you may not recognize: GDAXI (German Dax Stock Index), HSI (Hong Kong Stocks), CA10YT=RR (Canadian 10-yer […]
July 2nd, 2020 | The Case For The British Pound
Black Swan Currency Currents - Though I think it best now to get past the non-farm payroll reaction tomorrow, the British pound is looking increasingly interesting as a long trade and a long-term hold based on the potential, we see in our Wave charts and the potential for a fundamental realignment of the their economy triggered by Brexit; i.e. unshackled […]
May 3rd, 2020 | GBP/USD 240-MIN: MAYBE?
May 1st, 2020 | US Dollar Index Daily View
Black Swan Currency Currents - Dollar Index Daily View – Looking lower…but, alternative still in play as it represents another dollar risk-bid on a big sell-off in stocks (as abstract as such an idea may be to the bulls at the moment; the narrative–money must go somewhere). 0 Likes
April 18th, 2020 | Drivers For a Multi-Year Decline in the US Dollar into Focus
Black Swan Currency Currents - I just wanted to comment a bit more on our current macro theme as it relates to credit markets and its impact on the longer-term dollar path. As you know I’ve been suggesting it is the credit market that is key to the US dollar’s path at least intermediate-term (months) and is likely the trigger […]
April 13th, 2020 | Still Stuck in the Debt-Demand Feedback Loop….The Great Deflation
Black Swan Currency Currents - Below is a slide I shared at a presentation back in 2015 as the real economy was supposedly healing after the credit crunch. My point was we were indeed showing some progress, but from a macro standpoint we were still stuck in an ugly debt-demand feed-back loop; i.e. relying on increasing amounts of credit and […]
April 3rd, 2020 | What’s Holding Up The Pound?
Black Swan Currency Currents - The euro has been battered over the last four trading days, but the pound has held up nicely against the US dollar (see EUR/GBP chart second below). Why? Not sure. But we do believe the pound is set to turn down and we are looking for at least a couple hundred + pip decline, with […]
February 12th, 2020 | EUR/USD Daily View: A Bottom in Place? Maybe
Black Swan Currency Currents - We have been tracking for a while–since November 2019–the possible irregular flat correction pattern, whereby Wave (b) exceeds the beginning of Wave (a) and Wave (c) carries lower than Wave (a), as you can see in the chart below. An extension for Wave (c) as a percentage of the Wave (a) in this type of […]
January 28th, 2020 | IF EUR/USD is Going to Bounce, This Would Be A Good Place…
Black Swan Currency Currents - A nice symmetrical A-B-C pattern into the low.
January 23rd, 2020 | GBP/USD: A Nice Symmetrical Retracement Pattern….
Black Swan Currency Currents - …a push lower again? We know where our risk is…
December 31st, 2019 | Major Pairs Summary
December 18th, 2019 | EUR/USD Hourly: One more push lower near-term?
Black Swan Currency Currents - Have we traced out A-B and have C down to follow? We still like this setup after a test of our stop level at 1.1179. Note the minor Wave [a] is equal in length as minor Wave [c] into the 1.1175 high. Looking lower; targeting to 1.1086 in Wave C.
December 6th, 2019 | Tight Correlation: If you like stocks short; then you should like USD/JPY short
Black Swan Currency Currents - USD/JPY (black) vs S&P 500 Stock Futures (purple) 240-min: A fairly tight positive correlation. A further correction lower in stocks likely means USD/JPY follows.
October 30th, 2019 | US $ Index: Correcting Higher; Then a Big Break?
October 22nd, 2019 | Dollar Index: A perfect A-B-C Pattern?
Black Swan Currency Currents - Dollar Index: A perfect A-B-C pattern? Looking for a rally…
October 13th, 2019 | Chart View: Why China’s Currency will not be Weaponized…
Black Swan Currency Currents - Quotable “Nature does not hurry, yet everything is accomplished.’ –Lao Tzu Many analysts have been predicting China will “weaponize” its currency; i.e. push it sharply lower against the US dollar as punishment for US trade “aggression.” On first blush, this sounds sensible. But I don’t believe it aligns with what China is trying to […]
September 28th, 2019 | Bitcoin: Weekly and Daily…Close to Bottom Maybe?
Black Swan Currency Currents - 0 Likes Share
September 22nd, 2019 | Oil: A Bearish Alternative…
Black Swan Currency Currents - Everybody is loving oil now. A bearish alternative.