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Jack Crooks

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Jack has over 20 years experience in the currency, equity, and futures arena. He is an investment advisor who has held key positions in brokerage, money management, trading, and research. Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He was also founder of Ross International Asset Management (specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients) and General Manager of Plexus Trading (specializing in currency futures and commodities trading).

Black Swan Currency Currents - “The hottest places in hell are reserved for those who, in times of great moral crisis, maintain their neutrality.” ― Dante Alighieri I presented the following chart below during showing the nasty feedback loop of rising debt and weak global demand during a webinar back in 2015 (and had developed the diagram a few years […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - …not so good for the real economy…

Black Swan Currency Currents - Gold vs. GBP/USD vs. $ Index vs. S&P 500 (inverted)…one big happy family moving together… 0 Likes Share

Black Swan Currency Currents - …if so, we could see a deeper correction than most expect.

Black Swan Currency Currents - What if the pound outruns the euro as the US dollar breaks down? Given the extreme long positioning in the euro, measured by CME currency futures, and the negative positioning as of last Friday for the pound despite its rally, out-performance of the pound would not surprise. I.E. there is a lot of positive sentiment […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Gold is in parabolic mode. Everyone loves it. Inflation and safe haven and the end of the dollar are the rationales. 1) This is not inflation. If it were, corn (green line overlaid) and all the other real stuff would be blowing off. It isn’t. 2) This is not the end of the dollar yet; […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - USD/NOK has a tight negative correlation with the euro. And as suspected, the currency is also impacted by oil prices. We suspect oil goes lower given the dismal demand in the real economy. Below a look at USD/NOK with EUR/USD (inverse) overlaid and our Wave view on oil. Oil (WTI) Daily:

Black Swan Currency Currents - I haven’t shared this for a while, but here is a look at various asset class correlations with key forex we follow.   Two different time frames so you can see the changes.  We have one-year vs. 30-days. Some abbreviations you may not recognize: GDAXI (German Dax Stock Index), HSI (Hong Kong Stocks), CA10YT=RR (Canadian 10-yer […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Though I think it best now to get past the non-farm payroll reaction tomorrow, the British pound is looking increasingly interesting as a long trade and a long-term hold based on the potential, we see in our Wave charts and the potential for a fundamental realignment of the their economy triggered by Brexit; i.e. unshackled […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Dollar Index Daily View – Looking lower…but, alternative still in play as it represents another dollar risk-bid on a big sell-off in stocks (as abstract as such an idea may be to the bulls at the moment; the narrative–money must go somewhere). 0 Likes

Black Swan Currency Currents - I just wanted to comment a bit more on our current macro theme as it relates to credit markets and its impact on the longer-term dollar path. As you know I’ve been suggesting it is the credit market that is key to the US dollar’s path at least intermediate-term (months) and is likely the trigger […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Below is a slide I shared at a presentation back in 2015 as the real economy was supposedly healing after the credit crunch.  My point was we were indeed showing some progress, but from a macro standpoint we were still stuck in an ugly debt-demand feed-back loop; i.e. relying on increasing amounts of credit and […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - The euro has been battered over the last four trading days, but the pound has held up nicely against the US dollar (see EUR/GBP chart second below). Why? Not sure. But we do believe the pound is set to turn down and we are looking for at least a couple hundred + pip decline, with […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - We have been tracking for a while–since November 2019–the possible irregular flat correction pattern, whereby Wave (b) exceeds the beginning of Wave (a) and Wave (c) carries lower than Wave (a), as you can see in the chart below.  An extension for Wave (c) as a percentage of the Wave (a) in this type of […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - A nice symmetrical A-B-C pattern into the low.

Black Swan Currency Currents - …a push lower again? We know where our risk is…

Black Swan Currency Currents - Have we traced out A-B and have C down to follow?  We still like this setup after a test of our stop level at 1.1179.  Note the minor Wave [a] is equal in length as minor Wave [c] into the 1.1175 high.  Looking lower; targeting to 1.1086 in Wave C.

Black Swan Currency Currents - USD/JPY (black) vs S&P 500 Stock Futures (purple) 240-min: A fairly tight positive correlation. A further correction lower in stocks likely means USD/JPY follows.

Black Swan Currency Currents - Dollar Index: A perfect A-B-C pattern? Looking for a rally…

Black Swan Currency Currents - Quotable “Nature does not hurry, yet everything is accomplished.’ –Lao Tzu                                                     Many analysts have been predicting China will “weaponize” its currency; i.e. push it sharply lower against the US dollar as punishment for US trade “aggression.”  On first blush, this sounds sensible.  But I don’t believe it aligns with what China is trying to […]