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Jack Crooks

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Jack has over 20 years experience in the currency, equity, and futures arena. He is an investment advisor who has held key positions in brokerage, money management, trading, and research. Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He was also founder of Ross International Asset Management (specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients) and General Manager of Plexus Trading (specializing in currency futures and commodities trading).

Black Swan Currency Currents - In the last month or so, we have managed to call at least four of the last zero tops in oil. But we now have an interesting setup—it could be equality; i.e. whereby the correction in three waves (zig zag here) and the first (A) and last wave (C) are equal in length. That is […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Our bet is on Turkey, despite the near-term concerns. South Africa seems on the path to be the next Zimbabwe unless major changes are made soon. Take a look at how the South African Rand has outperformed the Turkish lira since 2008. A nice symmetrical A-B-C corrective pattern with “equality”; i.e. A Wave = C […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Minimum playable target on a “correction” would be to the 38.2% retrace level or 1.1283. Note the prior Wave [iv] as resistance so far…

Black Swan Currency Currents - We have been short EUR/USD from 1.1436 back on 3/20/19…we expect a test of 1.1174 minimum…peeling some profit off at the 78.6% level—1.1233—if we get there.

Black Swan Currency Currents - It is possible we have completed an A-B-C expanding flat pattern ; which traces out Wave (B). We are short, as the reward seems skewed to the downside.

Black Swan Currency Currents - Looking for a push down toward the 78.6% retrace level at 96.225…we want to get long the dollar on any signs of reversal higher…

Black Swan Currency Currents - We remain short oil and looking for a push down toward 52 minimum target…a big dump in stocks and we likely see oil to 50-48 level…correlation as risk asset remains tight…

March 7th, 2019 | EUR/USD Daily Wave View

Black Swan Currency Currents - The pair is testing the longer-term 61.8% retracement level today going back at 1.1183…momentum still pointing lower. Our next Fib target comes in at 1.0810 or 78.6% retracement…remaining short and will be sending a stop adjustment to lock in more profit.

Black Swan Currency Currents - Below is USD/CAD daily (black bars) versus WTI crude futures (price inverted red line so you can better visualize the ongoing tight correlation between the two price series. If oil breaks down here (red line moves higher), this correlation indicates $-CAD is likely to follow.

Black Swan Currency Currents - Needless to say this trade has been our fav this year. Note the pair rallied right into key 78.6% resistance on the SA budget news. We are still long after taking some profits along the way. Looking to add again on a decent Wave-2 correction…

Black Swan Currency Currents - GLD (gold etf) has been rejected at the 61.8% retrace level. Watching for another try, then failure as a possible short trade setup.

January 18th, 2019 | US Long Bond View

Black Swan Currency Currents - A zig zag A-B-C with the C-wave rally coincident with stocks selling off and putting in a fresh low…our guess…

Black Swan Currency Currents - We have seen a nice positive correlation of late between US stocks and AUD/USD. Stocks are heading into a key retracement level at 2626….so; a break in stocks and Aussie should follow…

Black Swan Currency Currents - There is a rising consensus which says: The Fed is engineering a deflationary bust.  We agree.  But we also believe the Fed is consistently behind the curve and a US recession is likely in the cards no matter.

Black Swan Currency Currents - The recent new highs made back in late September were confirmed, based on Dow Theory; i.e. Industrials were confirmed by Transports. Is this when bear markets begin? Hmmm….stay tuned.

Black Swan Currency Currents - Still liking USD/CAD short setup…though CAD has a way of disappointing…symmetrical internal A-B-C patterns confluence at 1.3400-level.

Black Swan Currency Currents - We keep fiddling with this trade…short USD/JPY…we have an extension into the 113.70; which ended up as today’s high…other extensions in the neighborhood. News from Japan: TOKYO, Dec 14 (Reuters) – Japanese manufacturing activity has expanded in December, a preliminary survey showed on Friday, but export orders have contracted at the fastest pace in more […]

December 8th, 2018 | EUR/USD Daily EW View…

Black Swan Currency Currents - EUR/USD having trouble at 1.1420…cautiously optimistic despite the resistance….

Black Swan Currency Currents - Italy is still a MAJOR concern for the eurozone; Italian bond spreads relative to Germany are off their highs (327 basis points) and down to 281 basis points (by no means out of the woods).  Note the tacit correlation between euro and spread direction. Below, the pair is shown as USD/EUR so you can see […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Below is a look at the US dollar versus Oil.  We have been wrong on oil.  And it now appears a major top is in place at Wave A.  We are expecting the old correlation of strong dollar-weak oil, and vice versa, again.  To that belief, a correction lower in the dollar over the next […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - We’ve been tracking this chart, showing the correlation between Chinese stocks, the yuan, and yield spread (with the US). The incentive to keep hot money in China fades as the US spread gains. We don’t know if the damn will break, and capital will rush out, but it seems risks are growing.

Black Swan Currency Currents - Soybeans (Jan ‘19)…240-min view…impulse down complete? US Dollar Index into our target zone…turning down?

Black Swan Currency Currents - Quotable “Anyone who spends too much time thinking about international money goes mad.” –Charles Kindleberger  Commentary & Analysis The Mundellian Trilemma, China’s Box, and Dollar Risk Bid The Mundellian trilemma says policy makers can control only two of the three main variables in global finance, but not all three at the same time. “…it is […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Quotable “Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil.” –J. Paul Getty  Commentary & Analysis Will the Dollar – Oil correlation get back into gear? Chart Analysis/Comments/Guesses:   During the hay days of the US-China symbiotic commodities for shrinking dollar boom there was an extremely tight negative correlation between the US dollar and oil […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Despite the best efforts of governments and central banks we remain to a large degree mired in the same trap thanks to global supply exceeding demand in manufactured goods and commodities.
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