Howestreet.com - the source for market opinions

ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION

Jack Crooks

Guest's Website

Jack has over 20 years experience in the currency, equity, and futures arena. He is an investment advisor who has held key positions in brokerage, money management, trading, and research. Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He was also founder of Ross International Asset Management (specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients) and General Manager of Plexus Trading (specializing in currency futures and commodities trading).

Black Swan Currency Currents - There is a rising consensus which says: The Fed is engineering a deflationary bust.  We agree.  But we also believe the Fed is consistently behind the curve and a US recession is likely in the cards no matter.

Black Swan Currency Currents - The recent new highs made back in late September were confirmed, based on Dow Theory; i.e. Industrials were confirmed by Transports. Is this when bear markets begin? Hmmm….stay tuned.

Black Swan Currency Currents - Still liking USD/CAD short setup…though CAD has a way of disappointing…symmetrical internal A-B-C patterns confluence at 1.3400-level.

Black Swan Currency Currents - We keep fiddling with this trade…short USD/JPY…we have an extension into the 113.70; which ended up as today’s high…other extensions in the neighborhood. News from Japan: TOKYO, Dec 14 (Reuters) – Japanese manufacturing activity has expanded in December, a preliminary survey showed on Friday, but export orders have contracted at the fastest pace in more […]

December 8th, 2018 | EUR/USD Daily EW View…

Black Swan Currency Currents - EUR/USD having trouble at 1.1420…cautiously optimistic despite the resistance….

Black Swan Currency Currents - Italy is still a MAJOR concern for the eurozone; Italian bond spreads relative to Germany are off their highs (327 basis points) and down to 281 basis points (by no means out of the woods).  Note the tacit correlation between euro and spread direction. Below, the pair is shown as USD/EUR so you can see […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Below is a look at the US dollar versus Oil.  We have been wrong on oil.  And it now appears a major top is in place at Wave A.  We are expecting the old correlation of strong dollar-weak oil, and vice versa, again.  To that belief, a correction lower in the dollar over the next […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - We’ve been tracking this chart, showing the correlation between Chinese stocks, the yuan, and yield spread (with the US). The incentive to keep hot money in China fades as the US spread gains. We don’t know if the damn will break, and capital will rush out, but it seems risks are growing.

Black Swan Currency Currents - Soybeans (Jan ‘19)…240-min view…impulse down complete? US Dollar Index into our target zone…turning down?

Black Swan Currency Currents - Quotable “Anyone who spends too much time thinking about international money goes mad.” –Charles Kindleberger  Commentary & Analysis The Mundellian Trilemma, China’s Box, and Dollar Risk Bid The Mundellian trilemma says policy makers can control only two of the three main variables in global finance, but not all three at the same time. “…it is […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Quotable “Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil.” –J. Paul Getty  Commentary & Analysis Will the Dollar – Oil correlation get back into gear? Chart Analysis/Comments/Guesses:   During the hay days of the US-China symbiotic commodities for shrinking dollar boom there was an extremely tight negative correlation between the US dollar and oil […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Despite the best efforts of governments and central banks we remain to a large degree mired in the same trap thanks to global supply exceeding demand in manufactured goods and commodities.

Black Swan Currency Currents - Quotable “I don’t think…” then you shouldn’t talk, said the Hatter.” ― Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland Commentary & Analysis Fundamentals are still smiling at the dollar There is a simple framework we can use to help evaluate the likely intermediate-term trend of the US dollar, measured in months and quarters.  It is referred to […]

Dollar Collapse.com - A-B-C rally into our target 112.44…a trade setup we have to take! This stuff is a probability bet—nothing more.

Black Swan Currency Currents - We, including our subscribers (we take the same trades we suggest) are short USD/CAD from 1.3145. Rationales at the time of entry: 1) Bank of Canada in play based on the recent Deputy Governor’s hawkish speech, and 2) a trade deal with the US…and of course the Wave setup below that has played out nicely […]

September 6th, 2018 | Major FX Pairs Update

Black Swan Currency Currents - Still working on the premise an expanding flat pattern’ i.e. [a]-[b]-[c] is still in play. The rally to resistance at 95.68 and reversal today, adds confidence minor Wave (c) of [c] may be underway. 

August 29th, 2018 | Kiwi Concerns…

Black Swan Currency Currents - Quotable “For things to reveal themselves to us, we need to be ready to abandon our views about them.” – Thích Nhat Hanh  Commentary & Analysis Kiwi Concerns…  ·         Premise: If key correlations, albeit loose, but not likely spurious, remain intact, and we finally get a nasty correction lower in global stocks, the New Zealand […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - AUD/USD Daily: I have re-labeled the Aussie pattern, fitting in an expanding flat correction [a]–[b]–[b] to better fit the price action, showing the completion of the (B) wave up toward 0.7676 swing resistance.

Black Swan Currency Currents - View: Corrective rally in Wave 2. USD/JPY 240-min [last 110.44]:  I am labelling the low at 110.61 as a completed five-wave sequence; thus, we are now in the midst of a sharp Wave 2 retracement rally with an optimum target to 112.07-19 before reversing for a sharp and deep decline in Wave 3 of (C) […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - In the daily chart view of GBP/USD you can better see the expanding flat pattern (A-B-C) I referred to in the 240-min view (second chart below).

July 24th, 2018 | USD/CAD Short Trade Setup

Black Swan Currency Currents - USD/CAD Daily View [last 1.3133]: I am looking for minor Wave-[c] to carry down to at least 1.2968, but prefer the Alternative count to 1.2851–a 61.8% retracement of Wave-A. Key support comes in at 1.3106. Bank of Canada rate hike expectations are rising on the back of last week’s inflation report.  And that is showing up […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - USD/CAD Daily [last 1.3097] Working lower today (a good jobs report from Canada) and though first support at 1.3130.

Black Swan Currency Currents - USD/CAD Daily – Corrective top may be in place…(and gold correlation) 28 June 2018/9:01 a.m. ET The corrective top labeled Wave A may be in place for USD/CAD.  Near-term support at 1.3256 with scope back to at least 1.2900 level if this A Wave is complete.  Gold price action may help, as the two have […]
Next Page »