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Jack Crooks

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Jack has over 20 years experience in the currency, equity, and futures arena. He is an investment advisor who has held key positions in brokerage, money management, trading, and research. Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He was also founder of Ross International Asset Management (specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients) and General Manager of Plexus Trading (specializing in currency futures and commodities trading).

Black Swan Currency Currents - Quotable “Anyone who spends too much time thinking about international money goes mad.” –Charles Kindleberger  Commentary & Analysis The Mundellian Trilemma, China’s Box, and Dollar Risk Bid The Mundellian trilemma says policy makers can control only two of the three main variables in global finance, but not all three at the same time. “…it is […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Quotable “Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil.” –J. Paul Getty  Commentary & Analysis Will the Dollar – Oil correlation get back into gear? Chart Analysis/Comments/Guesses:   During the hay days of the US-China symbiotic commodities for shrinking dollar boom there was an extremely tight negative correlation between the US dollar and oil […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Despite the best efforts of governments and central banks we remain to a large degree mired in the same trap thanks to global supply exceeding demand in manufactured goods and commodities.

Black Swan Currency Currents - Quotable “I don’t think…” then you shouldn’t talk, said the Hatter.” ― Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland Commentary & Analysis Fundamentals are still smiling at the dollar There is a simple framework we can use to help evaluate the likely intermediate-term trend of the US dollar, measured in months and quarters.  It is referred to […]

Dollar Collapse.com - A-B-C rally into our target 112.44…a trade setup we have to take! This stuff is a probability bet—nothing more.

Black Swan Currency Currents - We, including our subscribers (we take the same trades we suggest) are short USD/CAD from 1.3145. Rationales at the time of entry: 1) Bank of Canada in play based on the recent Deputy Governor’s hawkish speech, and 2) a trade deal with the US…and of course the Wave setup below that has played out nicely […]

September 6th, 2018 | Major FX Pairs Update

Black Swan Currency Currents - Still working on the premise an expanding flat pattern’ i.e. [a]-[b]-[c] is still in play. The rally to resistance at 95.68 and reversal today, adds confidence minor Wave (c) of [c] may be underway. 

August 29th, 2018 | Kiwi Concerns…

Black Swan Currency Currents - Quotable “For things to reveal themselves to us, we need to be ready to abandon our views about them.” – Thích Nhat Hanh  Commentary & Analysis Kiwi Concerns…  ·         Premise: If key correlations, albeit loose, but not likely spurious, remain intact, and we finally get a nasty correction lower in global stocks, the New Zealand […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - AUD/USD Daily: I have re-labeled the Aussie pattern, fitting in an expanding flat correction [a]–[b]–[b] to better fit the price action, showing the completion of the (B) wave up toward 0.7676 swing resistance.

Black Swan Currency Currents - View: Corrective rally in Wave 2. USD/JPY 240-min [last 110.44]:  I am labelling the low at 110.61 as a completed five-wave sequence; thus, we are now in the midst of a sharp Wave 2 retracement rally with an optimum target to 112.07-19 before reversing for a sharp and deep decline in Wave 3 of (C) […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - In the daily chart view of GBP/USD you can better see the expanding flat pattern (A-B-C) I referred to in the 240-min view (second chart below).

July 24th, 2018 | USD/CAD Short Trade Setup

Black Swan Currency Currents - USD/CAD Daily View [last 1.3133]: I am looking for minor Wave-[c] to carry down to at least 1.2968, but prefer the Alternative count to 1.2851–a 61.8% retracement of Wave-A. Key support comes in at 1.3106. Bank of Canada rate hike expectations are rising on the back of last week’s inflation report.  And that is showing up […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - USD/CAD Daily [last 1.3097] Working lower today (a good jobs report from Canada) and though first support at 1.3130.

Black Swan Currency Currents - USD/CAD Daily – Corrective top may be in place…(and gold correlation) 28 June 2018/9:01 a.m. ET The corrective top labeled Wave A may be in place for USD/CAD.  Near-term support at 1.3256 with scope back to at least 1.2900 level if this A Wave is complete.  Gold price action may help, as the two have […]

June 27th, 2018 | EUR/USD Daily View

Black Swan Currency Currents - Looking for a corrective rally in Wave B back toward 1.2000.

Black Swan Currency Currents - The dollar index: It appearsminor Wave [iv] correction is complete at 93.17; looking for a rally with minimum scope to 95.88 (this target established as Wave [v] = [i]).  Expecting this will complete larger Wave A before a decent corrective move sets in to counter this strong five wave rally from back at 88.25–low of Wave […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - As you can see, the path of the USD/JPY pretty much tracks right on the Nikkei 225 stock index with a 93% 21-day correlation.  Momentum is fading for Japanese stocks… Inflation still weak in Japan – BOJ rates unchanged today..

June 12th, 2018 | Donald’s Dollar Dilemma

Black Swan Currency Currents -  President Trump has made it clear he wants to see the US trade deficit decline and appears willing to use all means necessary to achieve his goal.

Black Swan Currency Currents - 50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA= Death Cross…

Black Swan Currency Currents - US Stocks & JPY continue to be correlated…have play? 5 June 2018/11:11 p.m. ET If stocks break, as we expect, will USD/JPY follow?  Though the correlation has been sketchy, there is a correlation and presently at +74%; i.e. if stocks fall so may USD/JPY.  This would make sense if JPY plays a safe haven role […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Position Link  A slew of data due out today, including non-farm payrolls which bond traders (10-year chart and comments below) will likely react to, if not the currency guys… AUD/USD 240-min view:  Our risk on this trade is 0.7510; the 61.8% retrace is 0.7519; today’s first pivot support comes in at 0.7527–needless to say we need […]

May 25th, 2018 | US Dollar Index View

Black Swan Currency Currents - Still expecting a minor correction lower in the dollar; back toward 92.  But we don’t expect this will be the end of the longer term trend.  We are expecting another sharp rally after this near-term pull-back to the 95 level.

Black Swan Currency Currents - USD/JPY (black) vs. Gold price inverted (red)…nice correlation of late…
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