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Jack Crooks

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Jack has over 20 years experience in the currency, equity, and futures arena. He is an investment advisor who has held key positions in brokerage, money management, trading, and research. Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He was also founder of Ross International Asset Management (specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients) and General Manager of Plexus Trading (specializing in currency futures and commodities trading).

Black Swan Currency Currents - View: Corrective rally in Wave 2. USD/JPY 240-min [last 110.44]:  I am labelling the low at 110.61 as a completed five-wave sequence; thus, we are now in the midst of a sharp Wave 2 retracement rally with an optimum target to 112.07-19 before reversing for a sharp and deep decline in Wave 3 of (C) […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - In the daily chart view of GBP/USD you can better see the expanding flat pattern (A-B-C) I referred to in the 240-min view (second chart below).

July 24th, 2018 | USD/CAD Short Trade Setup

Black Swan Currency Currents - USD/CAD Daily View [last 1.3133]: I am looking for minor Wave-[c] to carry down to at least 1.2968, but prefer the Alternative count to 1.2851–a 61.8% retracement of Wave-A. Key support comes in at 1.3106. Bank of Canada rate hike expectations are rising on the back of last week’s inflation report.  And that is showing up […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - USD/CAD Daily [last 1.3097] Working lower today (a good jobs report from Canada) and though first support at 1.3130.

Black Swan Currency Currents - USD/CAD Daily – Corrective top may be in place…(and gold correlation) 28 June 2018/9:01 a.m. ET The corrective top labeled Wave A may be in place for USD/CAD.  Near-term support at 1.3256 with scope back to at least 1.2900 level if this A Wave is complete.  Gold price action may help, as the two have […]

June 27th, 2018 | EUR/USD Daily View

Black Swan Currency Currents - Looking for a corrective rally in Wave B back toward 1.2000.

Black Swan Currency Currents - The dollar index: It appearsminor Wave [iv] correction is complete at 93.17; looking for a rally with minimum scope to 95.88 (this target established as Wave [v] = [i]).  Expecting this will complete larger Wave A before a decent corrective move sets in to counter this strong five wave rally from back at 88.25–low of Wave […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - As you can see, the path of the USD/JPY pretty much tracks right on the Nikkei 225 stock index with a 93% 21-day correlation.  Momentum is fading for Japanese stocks… Inflation still weak in Japan – BOJ rates unchanged today..

June 12th, 2018 | Donald’s Dollar Dilemma

Black Swan Currency Currents -  President Trump has made it clear he wants to see the US trade deficit decline and appears willing to use all means necessary to achieve his goal.

Black Swan Currency Currents - 50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA= Death Cross…

Black Swan Currency Currents - US Stocks & JPY continue to be correlated…have play? 5 June 2018/11:11 p.m. ET If stocks break, as we expect, will USD/JPY follow?  Though the correlation has been sketchy, there is a correlation and presently at +74%; i.e. if stocks fall so may USD/JPY.  This would make sense if JPY plays a safe haven role […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Position Link  A slew of data due out today, including non-farm payrolls which bond traders (10-year chart and comments below) will likely react to, if not the currency guys… AUD/USD 240-min view:  Our risk on this trade is 0.7510; the 61.8% retrace is 0.7519; today’s first pivot support comes in at 0.7527–needless to say we need […]

May 25th, 2018 | US Dollar Index View

Black Swan Currency Currents - Still expecting a minor correction lower in the dollar; back toward 92.  But we don’t expect this will be the end of the longer term trend.  We are expecting another sharp rally after this near-term pull-back to the 95 level.

Black Swan Currency Currents - USD/JPY (black) vs. Gold price inverted (red)…nice correlation of late…

Black Swan Currency Currents - The decline from 1.4375 high to the 1.3532 low appears to be a three-wave affair labeled A-B-C.  Note that Wave C is almost exactly the length of Wave A so far; evidence a bottom may be in on the first leg of this correction lower; i.e. Wave (A) and setting up for a rally in […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Price action (choppiness) suggests maybe the dollar bottom may be delayed.  We say that as we expect a major bottom in the buck soon; then a counter trend really of multi-month variety to wrong-foot the dollar bears.  A triangle pattern as shown below, would keep the market guessing before a final thrust lower in the […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - In case you didn’t notice (quite possible because it doesn’t fit the MSM narrative), the esteemed South African parliament, in their infinite wisdom, decided that yes, because the ANC has turned the country into a paradise in hell during its 24-year reign of corruption and incompetence, now is the time to blame white farmers (again) […]

February 22nd, 2018 | Shorting Oil: A Trade!

Black Swan Currency Currents - We continue to be long-term bulls on oil; but we went short this afternoon for a trade. We are targeting down to the mid-50’s for oil on this EW chart setup.  We have overlaid the US dollar index (inverted in blue) so you can see the correlation.  (I.E. because the dollar index is inverted, when the blue […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - It’s not easy trying to forecast future prices from chart patterns; nor is it any easier to do so no matter how much fundamental information you possess, or believe you possess (see Frédéric Bastiat’s famous essay: “What is seen and what is not seen”).  Said forecasting difficulties prove the axiom, so succinctly stated by the […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - As I scan the papers, and the web, I have noticed bank analysts and newsletter writers are becoming increasingly bearish on the US dollar. Effectively, the dollar downtrend will continue in 2018 is the view. This seems the consensus thinking to justify a dollar bearish view

Black Swan Currency Currents - Either Prime Minister May skipped class at Oxford when they were discussing the art of negotiation, or she never liked the idea of Brexit in the first place (we know the latter applies).  

Black Swan Currency Currents - Gold pays no interest. Thus, gold prices tend to be negatively correlated to interest rates; i.e. higher interest rates and lower gold prices, vice versa.

Black Swan Currency Currents - As much as Europeans hate to hear this, there some uncultured rubes such as me who remain skeptical of “climate science.”

Black Swan Currency Currents - As a trader considering the fate of interest rates it pays to remain open to all “well-crafted stories.” Why? Because, based on many years of empirical evidence in the bag, we agree with the old saw: No one can forecast interest rates.
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