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Jack Crooks

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Jack has over 20 years experience in the currency, equity, and futures arena. He is an investment advisor who has held key positions in brokerage, money management, trading, and research. Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He was also founder of Ross International Asset Management (specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients) and General Manager of Plexus Trading (specializing in currency futures and commodities trading).

Black Swan Currency Currents - Dollar Index: A perfect A-B-C pattern? Looking for a rally…

Black Swan Currency Currents - Quotable “Nature does not hurry, yet everything is accomplished.’ –Lao Tzu                                                     Many analysts have been predicting China will “weaponize” its currency; i.e. push it sharply lower against the US dollar as punishment for US trade “aggression.”  On first blush, this sounds sensible.  But I don’t believe it aligns with what China is trying to […]

September 22nd, 2019 | Oil: A Bearish Alternative…

Black Swan Currency Currents - Everybody is loving oil now. A bearish alternative.

September 13th, 2019 | Major Bottom in EUR/USD?

Black Swan Currency Currents - We went long EUR/USD during the ECB press conference on Friday, after the 1.0924 low was tested within 1 pip at 1.0925. We suspect a MAJOR low is in place for the euro. Below is our daily Elliott Wave view for the EUR/USD. Mr. Drahgi opened the floodgates. Gave the market what it wanted. Yet […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Lots of love for the stock market as we know. The only game in town say the bulls with interest rates headed for zero bound. And that may be the case longer term. But a technical case can be made for an intermediate-term correction based on this Wave view–an (a)-(b)-(c) correction (3-3-5).

Black Swan Currency Currents - We have two seemingly equally plausible views for the direction of the US dollar; i.e. key juncture time we suspect. Comdols appear relatively cheap, but no doubt would suffer on a big “risk off” event. The euro and yen (plus swiss) have been playing have roles, yet that could change quickly, at least for the […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - As you probably know, I am no fan of the EU.  So, by extension, I am routing for Boris to succeed.  And I believe he will succeed in successfully taken the UK out of the EU and the country will be many times better off as a result once we get this period of relative […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Double equality target in gold? Say what? Looking at these moves as a series of three-wave corrections higher, we see that larger Wave (A) = (C) and minor Wave [a] = [c]…hmmm….due for a rest? Could coincide with another short-term bottom in the US dollar….(second chart below)…. US Dollar Index: A push down toward are […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - We have heard from Fed Chair Powell. Accordingly, he seems to have signaled a rate cut at the next meeting is baked in the cake. And we should suspect it is already baked in the price of key asset classes and the FX pack. But what is interesting is the background stuff; as usual. We […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Comments on FX Intervention and the US dollar: We have heard from Fed Chair Powell. Accordingly, he seems to have signaled a rate cut at the next meeting is baked in the cake. And we should suspect it is already baked in the price of key asset classes and the FX pack. But what is […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - The oil price rally may be complete….we are bearish on oil…daily view below: If oil breaks again, will the Canadian dollar follow? Below shows USD/CAD vs. Oil Price (inverted in red–dotted line) 4-hour basis… We remain long USD/CAD…

Black Swan Currency Currents - The buck has powered higher, well above our target today.  And it now leaves open the key question: Have we seen a dollar low; i.e. is this the trend move to 102 we have been targeting longer term now underway? Effectively, we defined the low in our “alternative”  or secondary view we shared earlier in the week.  […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - After a sharp rally from the low at 104.98; it appears we have seen yet another irregular flat correction; i.e. A-B-C; with Wave C made up of a five-wave impulse decline: [i]-[v]. Interesting this impulse Wave C ended bang on the 61.8% retracement from the swing high 112.39 to the swing low 104.98. Worth a […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - This chart outlines a standard A-B-C zig zag correction; at least so far. A couple things of interest: Absolute equality; i.e. of Wave A = Wave C, comes in at 1.1115; today’s low was 1.1114—pretty close. Secondly, Wave A was 40 hours in duration, while Wave C was 37 hours in duration. Just maybe, the […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Bottom line: Risk off hurt Aussie (leveraged to growth) and helped yen (as a safe haven play) If we couple the yen move with the Aussie push lower, we have a very enticing setup (we think) for AUD/JPY (plus, we like AUD/USD long still). Note in the chart below, a couple of key points: 1) If we […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - In the last month or so, we have managed to call at least four of the last zero tops in oil. But we now have an interesting setup—it could be equality; i.e. whereby the correction in three waves (zig zag here) and the first (A) and last wave (C) are equal in length. That is […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Our bet is on Turkey, despite the near-term concerns. South Africa seems on the path to be the next Zimbabwe unless major changes are made soon. Take a look at how the South African Rand has outperformed the Turkish lira since 2008. A nice symmetrical A-B-C corrective pattern with “equality”; i.e. A Wave = C […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Minimum playable target on a “correction” would be to the 38.2% retrace level or 1.1283. Note the prior Wave [iv] as resistance so far…

Black Swan Currency Currents - We have been short EUR/USD from 1.1436 back on 3/20/19…we expect a test of 1.1174 minimum…peeling some profit off at the 78.6% level—1.1233—if we get there.

Black Swan Currency Currents - It is possible we have completed an A-B-C expanding flat pattern ; which traces out Wave (B). We are short, as the reward seems skewed to the downside.

Black Swan Currency Currents - Looking for a push down toward the 78.6% retrace level at 96.225…we want to get long the dollar on any signs of reversal higher…

Black Swan Currency Currents - We remain short oil and looking for a push down toward 52 minimum target…a big dump in stocks and we likely see oil to 50-48 level…correlation as risk asset remains tight…
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