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Jack Crooks

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Jack has over 20 years experience in the currency, equity, and futures arena. He is an investment advisor who has held key positions in brokerage, money management, trading, and research. Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He was also founder of Ross International Asset Management (specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients) and General Manager of Plexus Trading (specializing in currency futures and commodities trading).

Black Swan Currency Currents - As you can see, the path of the USD/JPY pretty much tracks right on the Nikkei 225 stock index with a 93% 21-day correlation.  Momentum is fading for Japanese stocks… Inflation still weak in Japan – BOJ rates unchanged today..

June 12th, 2018 | Donald’s Dollar Dilemma

Black Swan Currency Currents -  President Trump has made it clear he wants to see the US trade deficit decline and appears willing to use all means necessary to achieve his goal.

Black Swan Currency Currents - 50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA= Death Cross…

Black Swan Currency Currents - US Stocks & JPY continue to be correlated…have play? 5 June 2018/11:11 p.m. ET If stocks break, as we expect, will USD/JPY follow?  Though the correlation has been sketchy, there is a correlation and presently at +74%; i.e. if stocks fall so may USD/JPY.  This would make sense if JPY plays a safe haven role […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Position Link  A slew of data due out today, including non-farm payrolls which bond traders (10-year chart and comments below) will likely react to, if not the currency guys… AUD/USD 240-min view:  Our risk on this trade is 0.7510; the 61.8% retrace is 0.7519; today’s first pivot support comes in at 0.7527–needless to say we need […]

May 25th, 2018 | US Dollar Index View

Black Swan Currency Currents - Still expecting a minor correction lower in the dollar; back toward 92.  But we don’t expect this will be the end of the longer term trend.  We are expecting another sharp rally after this near-term pull-back to the 95 level.

Black Swan Currency Currents - USD/JPY (black) vs. Gold price inverted (red)…nice correlation of late…

Black Swan Currency Currents - The decline from 1.4375 high to the 1.3532 low appears to be a three-wave affair labeled A-B-C.  Note that Wave C is almost exactly the length of Wave A so far; evidence a bottom may be in on the first leg of this correction lower; i.e. Wave (A) and setting up for a rally in […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Price action (choppiness) suggests maybe the dollar bottom may be delayed.  We say that as we expect a major bottom in the buck soon; then a counter trend really of multi-month variety to wrong-foot the dollar bears.  A triangle pattern as shown below, would keep the market guessing before a final thrust lower in the […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - In case you didn’t notice (quite possible because it doesn’t fit the MSM narrative), the esteemed South African parliament, in their infinite wisdom, decided that yes, because the ANC has turned the country into a paradise in hell during its 24-year reign of corruption and incompetence, now is the time to blame white farmers (again) […]

February 22nd, 2018 | Shorting Oil: A Trade!

Black Swan Currency Currents - We continue to be long-term bulls on oil; but we went short this afternoon for a trade. We are targeting down to the mid-50’s for oil on this EW chart setup.  We have overlaid the US dollar index (inverted in blue) so you can see the correlation.  (I.E. because the dollar index is inverted, when the blue […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - It’s not easy trying to forecast future prices from chart patterns; nor is it any easier to do so no matter how much fundamental information you possess, or believe you possess (see Frédéric Bastiat’s famous essay: “What is seen and what is not seen”).  Said forecasting difficulties prove the axiom, so succinctly stated by the […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - As I scan the papers, and the web, I have noticed bank analysts and newsletter writers are becoming increasingly bearish on the US dollar. Effectively, the dollar downtrend will continue in 2018 is the view. This seems the consensus thinking to justify a dollar bearish view

Black Swan Currency Currents - Either Prime Minister May skipped class at Oxford when they were discussing the art of negotiation, or she never liked the idea of Brexit in the first place (we know the latter applies).  

Black Swan Currency Currents - Gold pays no interest. Thus, gold prices tend to be negatively correlated to interest rates; i.e. higher interest rates and lower gold prices, vice versa.

Black Swan Currency Currents - As much as Europeans hate to hear this, there some uncultured rubes such as me who remain skeptical of “climate science.”

Black Swan Currency Currents - As a trader considering the fate of interest rates it pays to remain open to all “well-crafted stories.” Why? Because, based on many years of empirical evidence in the bag, we agree with the old saw: No one can forecast interest rates.

Black Swan Currency Currents - Targets  lower are  1,210; then 1180 – level. And if  the US dollar catches a major bid , there is scope to test the swing low of ,123 from mid – December 2016 (gold vs. dollar weekly chart page 3)

Black Swan Currency Currents - The chief hawk in this narrative is Stanford Economics Professor John Taylor (JT); aka the creator of the Taylor Rule for monetary policy.  Should President. Trump pull a surprise out of his hat this week (Would it be a surprise if President Trump didn’t surprise?), and appoints JT head of the US Federal Reserve Bank […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Critical resistance at 1.2521, the Wave 1 low, was tested today.  Looking for a push lower in minor Wave 5 down.

Black Swan Currency Currents - Despite the rising probability, along with increasing sentiment and real positioning, suggesting the US dollar cyclical bull market rally is over (ending with the peak in early January 2017 labeled 5 of III below), the jury is still out. Why do I say that? Well, below are some rationales to consider:

Black Swan Currency Currents - Watching the currency market over the past couple of days has been akin to watching paint dry. In my case the paint drying analogy is probably because I have a few different scenarios in my mind and find all of them plausible (see, Orwell’s Doublethink lives in the minds of traders). My continuous question as […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - We shared this chart as some rationale for shorting USD/CAD this morning…we should find out soon if it works. USD/CAD 4-hour (gold) vs. Oil Futures (price inverted purple): A nice divergence here; CAD and oil are usually tightly correlated.  

Black Swan Currency Currents - Over the last several years, many writers and assorted cranks, those with little understanding of the global financial system in its current form, have warned “soon [whatever nebulous time-frame that may be] the Chinese currency will replace the US dollar.” Back in early 2000’s we considered such a warning as either total hogwash, or at […]
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