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Jack Crooks

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Jack has over 20 years experience in the currency, equity, and futures arena. He is an investment advisor who has held key positions in brokerage, money management, trading, and research. Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He was also founder of Ross International Asset Management (specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients) and General Manager of Plexus Trading (specializing in currency futures and commodities trading).

Black Swan Currency Currents - The buck has powered higher, well above our target today.  And it now leaves open the key question: Have we seen a dollar low; i.e. is this the trend move to 102 we have been targeting longer term now underway? Effectively, we defined the low in our “alternative”  or secondary view we shared earlier in the week.  […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - After a sharp rally from the low at 104.98; it appears we have seen yet another irregular flat correction; i.e. A-B-C; with Wave C made up of a five-wave impulse decline: [i]-[v]. Interesting this impulse Wave C ended bang on the 61.8% retracement from the swing high 112.39 to the swing low 104.98. Worth a […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - This chart outlines a standard A-B-C zig zag correction; at least so far. A couple things of interest: Absolute equality; i.e. of Wave A = Wave C, comes in at 1.1115; today’s low was 1.1114—pretty close. Secondly, Wave A was 40 hours in duration, while Wave C was 37 hours in duration. Just maybe, the […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Bottom line: Risk off hurt Aussie (leveraged to growth) and helped yen (as a safe haven play) If we couple the yen move with the Aussie push lower, we have a very enticing setup (we think) for AUD/JPY (plus, we like AUD/USD long still). Note in the chart below, a couple of key points: 1) If we […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - In the last month or so, we have managed to call at least four of the last zero tops in oil. But we now have an interesting setup—it could be equality; i.e. whereby the correction in three waves (zig zag here) and the first (A) and last wave (C) are equal in length. That is […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Our bet is on Turkey, despite the near-term concerns. South Africa seems on the path to be the next Zimbabwe unless major changes are made soon. Take a look at how the South African Rand has outperformed the Turkish lira since 2008. A nice symmetrical A-B-C corrective pattern with “equality”; i.e. A Wave = C […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Minimum playable target on a “correction” would be to the 38.2% retrace level or 1.1283. Note the prior Wave [iv] as resistance so far…

Black Swan Currency Currents - We have been short EUR/USD from 1.1436 back on 3/20/19…we expect a test of 1.1174 minimum…peeling some profit off at the 78.6% level—1.1233—if we get there.

Black Swan Currency Currents - It is possible we have completed an A-B-C expanding flat pattern ; which traces out Wave (B). We are short, as the reward seems skewed to the downside.

Black Swan Currency Currents - Looking for a push down toward the 78.6% retrace level at 96.225…we want to get long the dollar on any signs of reversal higher…

Black Swan Currency Currents - We remain short oil and looking for a push down toward 52 minimum target…a big dump in stocks and we likely see oil to 50-48 level…correlation as risk asset remains tight…

March 7th, 2019 | EUR/USD Daily Wave View

Black Swan Currency Currents - The pair is testing the longer-term 61.8% retracement level today going back at 1.1183…momentum still pointing lower. Our next Fib target comes in at 1.0810 or 78.6% retracement…remaining short and will be sending a stop adjustment to lock in more profit.

Black Swan Currency Currents - Below is USD/CAD daily (black bars) versus WTI crude futures (price inverted red line so you can better visualize the ongoing tight correlation between the two price series. If oil breaks down here (red line moves higher), this correlation indicates $-CAD is likely to follow.

Black Swan Currency Currents - Needless to say this trade has been our fav this year. Note the pair rallied right into key 78.6% resistance on the SA budget news. We are still long after taking some profits along the way. Looking to add again on a decent Wave-2 correction…

Black Swan Currency Currents - GLD (gold etf) has been rejected at the 61.8% retrace level. Watching for another try, then failure as a possible short trade setup.

January 18th, 2019 | US Long Bond View

Black Swan Currency Currents - A zig zag A-B-C with the C-wave rally coincident with stocks selling off and putting in a fresh low…our guess…

Black Swan Currency Currents - We have seen a nice positive correlation of late between US stocks and AUD/USD. Stocks are heading into a key retracement level at 2626….so; a break in stocks and Aussie should follow…

Black Swan Currency Currents - There is a rising consensus which says: The Fed is engineering a deflationary bust.  We agree.  But we also believe the Fed is consistently behind the curve and a US recession is likely in the cards no matter.

Black Swan Currency Currents - The recent new highs made back in late September were confirmed, based on Dow Theory; i.e. Industrials were confirmed by Transports. Is this when bear markets begin? Hmmm….stay tuned.

Black Swan Currency Currents - Still liking USD/CAD short setup…though CAD has a way of disappointing…symmetrical internal A-B-C patterns confluence at 1.3400-level.

Black Swan Currency Currents - We keep fiddling with this trade…short USD/JPY…we have an extension into the 113.70; which ended up as today’s high…other extensions in the neighborhood. News from Japan: TOKYO, Dec 14 (Reuters) – Japanese manufacturing activity has expanded in December, a preliminary survey showed on Friday, but export orders have contracted at the fastest pace in more […]

December 8th, 2018 | EUR/USD Daily EW View…

Black Swan Currency Currents - EUR/USD having trouble at 1.1420…cautiously optimistic despite the resistance….

Black Swan Currency Currents - Italy is still a MAJOR concern for the eurozone; Italian bond spreads relative to Germany are off their highs (327 basis points) and down to 281 basis points (by no means out of the woods).  Note the tacit correlation between euro and spread direction. Below, the pair is shown as USD/EUR so you can see […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Below is a look at the US dollar versus Oil.  We have been wrong on oil.  And it now appears a major top is in place at Wave A.  We are expecting the old correlation of strong dollar-weak oil, and vice versa, again.  To that belief, a correction lower in the dollar over the next […]
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