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Jack Crooks

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Jack has over 20 years experience in the currency, equity, and futures arena. He is an investment advisor who has held key positions in brokerage, money management, trading, and research. Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He was also founder of Ross International Asset Management (specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients) and General Manager of Plexus Trading (specializing in currency futures and commodities trading).

Black Swan Currency Currents - Though I think it best now to get past the non-farm payroll reaction tomorrow, the British pound is looking increasingly interesting as a long trade and a long-term hold based on the potential, we see in our Wave charts and the potential for a fundamental realignment of the their economy triggered by Brexit; i.e. unshackled […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Dollar Index Daily View – Looking lower…but, alternative still in play as it represents another dollar risk-bid on a big sell-off in stocks (as abstract as such an idea may be to the bulls at the moment; the narrative–money must go somewhere). 0 Likes

Black Swan Currency Currents - I just wanted to comment a bit more on our current macro theme as it relates to credit markets and its impact on the longer-term dollar path. As you know I’ve been suggesting it is the credit market that is key to the US dollar’s path at least intermediate-term (months) and is likely the trigger […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Below is a slide I shared at a presentation back in 2015 as the real economy was supposedly healing after the credit crunch.  My point was we were indeed showing some progress, but from a macro standpoint we were still stuck in an ugly debt-demand feed-back loop; i.e. relying on increasing amounts of credit and […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - The euro has been battered over the last four trading days, but the pound has held up nicely against the US dollar (see EUR/GBP chart second below). Why? Not sure. But we do believe the pound is set to turn down and we are looking for at least a couple hundred + pip decline, with […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - We have been tracking for a while–since November 2019–the possible irregular flat correction pattern, whereby Wave (b) exceeds the beginning of Wave (a) and Wave (c) carries lower than Wave (a), as you can see in the chart below.  An extension for Wave (c) as a percentage of the Wave (a) in this type of […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - A nice symmetrical A-B-C pattern into the low.

Black Swan Currency Currents - …a push lower again? We know where our risk is…

Black Swan Currency Currents - Have we traced out A-B and have C down to follow?  We still like this setup after a test of our stop level at 1.1179.  Note the minor Wave [a] is equal in length as minor Wave [c] into the 1.1175 high.  Looking lower; targeting to 1.1086 in Wave C.

Black Swan Currency Currents - USD/JPY (black) vs S&P 500 Stock Futures (purple) 240-min: A fairly tight positive correlation. A further correction lower in stocks likely means USD/JPY follows.

Black Swan Currency Currents - Dollar Index: A perfect A-B-C pattern? Looking for a rally…

Black Swan Currency Currents - Quotable “Nature does not hurry, yet everything is accomplished.’ –Lao Tzu                                                     Many analysts have been predicting China will “weaponize” its currency; i.e. push it sharply lower against the US dollar as punishment for US trade “aggression.”  On first blush, this sounds sensible.  But I don’t believe it aligns with what China is trying to […]

September 22nd, 2019 | Oil: A Bearish Alternative…

Black Swan Currency Currents - Everybody is loving oil now. A bearish alternative.

September 13th, 2019 | Major Bottom in EUR/USD?

Black Swan Currency Currents - We went long EUR/USD during the ECB press conference on Friday, after the 1.0924 low was tested within 1 pip at 1.0925. We suspect a MAJOR low is in place for the euro. Below is our daily Elliott Wave view for the EUR/USD. Mr. Drahgi opened the floodgates. Gave the market what it wanted. Yet […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Lots of love for the stock market as we know. The only game in town say the bulls with interest rates headed for zero bound. And that may be the case longer term. But a technical case can be made for an intermediate-term correction based on this Wave view–an (a)-(b)-(c) correction (3-3-5).

Black Swan Currency Currents - We have two seemingly equally plausible views for the direction of the US dollar; i.e. key juncture time we suspect. Comdols appear relatively cheap, but no doubt would suffer on a big “risk off” event. The euro and yen (plus swiss) have been playing have roles, yet that could change quickly, at least for the […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - As you probably know, I am no fan of the EU.  So, by extension, I am routing for Boris to succeed.  And I believe he will succeed in successfully taken the UK out of the EU and the country will be many times better off as a result once we get this period of relative […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Double equality target in gold? Say what? Looking at these moves as a series of three-wave corrections higher, we see that larger Wave (A) = (C) and minor Wave [a] = [c]…hmmm….due for a rest? Could coincide with another short-term bottom in the US dollar….(second chart below)…. US Dollar Index: A push down toward are […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - We have heard from Fed Chair Powell. Accordingly, he seems to have signaled a rate cut at the next meeting is baked in the cake. And we should suspect it is already baked in the price of key asset classes and the FX pack. But what is interesting is the background stuff; as usual. We […]

Black Swan Currency Currents - Comments on FX Intervention and the US dollar: We have heard from Fed Chair Powell. Accordingly, he seems to have signaled a rate cut at the next meeting is baked in the cake. And we should suspect it is already baked in the price of key asset classes and the FX pack. But what is […]
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