ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
March 23, 2026 | Inflation Fighters?
Happy Monday Morning! As expected, the Bank of Canada held rates this past week. However, what caught our attention was the Banks dovish commentary, and the ensuing market reaction. Per the BoC press conference: “The risk that higher energy prices quickly spread to the prices of other goods and services looks contained.” “Governing council will […]
March 16, 2026 | The Wrong Signals
Happy Monday Morning! We’ve written at length about the housing bust emanating across the country. In particular, in the new construction space. New home sales have hit 45 year lows in the GTA, and aren’t fairing much better in Greater Vancouver, and so, as we noted last week, An article in the Globe & Mail highlighted the […]
March 9, 2026 | Upsetting the Apple Cart
Happy Monday Morning! Last week we wrote a piece titled ‘Landmark Agreements’ in which the Federal Government signed an agreement acknowleding aboriginal title for the Musqueam First Nations across most of Metro Vancouver. It was a “Landmark Agreement” according to the Feds, yet received zero mainstream media coverage. Why it received so little coverage we’ll […]
March 2, 2026 | Landmark Agreements?
Happy Monday Morning! While everyone was busy following the enormous geopolitical events unfolding in the middle east, a subtle news release from the Federal Government went largely unnoticed or perhaps intentionally burried, despite having (potentially) significant ramifications for nearly all of Metro Vancouver. The Musqueam Indian Band and the Government of Canada signed a Rights Recognition […]
February 23, 2026 | The Bill is Due
Happy Monday Morning! Canada’s headline inflation rate slowed to 2.3% last month, cooler than economist expectations for 2.4%. Finally, shelter price inflation in Canada slowed to 1.7% on an annual basis, falling below 2% for the first time in nearly five years! This was largely driven by a deceleration in rent prices and mortgage interest […]
February 9, 2026 | Pre-Sale Flip Flop
Happy Monday Morning! As we noted last week, Greater Vancouver home sales continued their slump into 2026. January home sales fell 29% year-over-year in January, and were a whopping 35% below the 10 year average. The sales to actives ratio was just 9%, the lowest reading since September 2012. In other words, only 9% of […]
February 2, 2026 | Liquidity or Price
Happy Monday Morning! As expected the Bank of Canada remained on the sidelines this past week, opting to keep interest rates on hold, and will continue to do so, barring a significant shift in the economy. Inflation pressures don’t appear to be a concern for the BoC, despite overall price levels suffocating the life out […]
January 26, 2026 | Extinction Level Event
Happy Monday Morning! Last week we wrote a piece titled ‘Plan B’ in which we highlighted the flood of rental supply driving rents lower. Much of this has been derived from developers shifting new projects from pre-sales to rentals amidst the sudden disappearance of investors. We already knew the pre-sale market was bad, but even […]
January 19, 2026 | Plan B
Happy Monday Morning! Asking rents in Canada fell again in December, falling for the 15th consecutive month according to Rentals.ca. Furthermore, December marked the slowest month for rental demand in two years, capping off five straight months of declining prospect counts. Source: Rentals.ca For those that have been following this newsletter, falling rents will come […]
January 12, 2026 | State-Directed Credit Allocation
Happy Monday Morning! As we highlighted in last week’s piece ‘The Perils of Price Discovery’ Vancouver home sales recorded a 25 year low last year, leaving many sellers stuck in their homes, unwilling to accept todays pricing. Many sellers learned the perils of price discovery. Too slow to reduce prices in a falling market, eventually […]
January 5, 2026 | The Perils of Price Discovery
Happy Monday Morning! The Vancouver housing market ended the year with a whimper. Home sales fell 13% year-over-year in December, with both new listings and total inventory continuing to climb. It was a historical year for the Vancouver housing market. The fewest annual home sales since the year 2000, a 25 year low. Source: Steve […]
December 22, 2025 | Going (Staying) Home
Happy Monday Morning! Human QE is over. Canada’s population outright contracted in Q3, shrinking by 76,000 people. This was the only quarterly decline on record outside the pandemic. Source: IceCap Asset Management BMO’s economist Robert Kavcic summed it up well. “A major population adjustment is well underway, and it remains one of the biggest economic […]
December 15, 2025 | Thirty Year Highs
Happy Monday Morning! As expected, the Bank of Canada held rates this past week. The relatively mundane presser could be summarized in one paragraph from Tiff. “If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close […]
December 8, 2025 | Self-Inflicted
Happy Monday Morning! The Canadian economy added 54K jobs in November, marking the third consecutive month of surprising job gains. The unemployment rate plunged to 6.5%, the lowest since July 2024 and down from 6.9% last month. The “suddenly hot” labour market is rather perplexing considering all the news headlines about layoffs (especially in the […]
December 1, 2025 | Under the Hood
Happy Monday Morning! The Canadian economy showed surprising resilience in the third quarter, with GDP expanding 2.6% on an annualized basis, well above expectations from both the Bank of Canada and a poll of economists which had pegged growth at just 0.5%. However, under the hood, there was cause for concern. The surge in growth […]
November 24, 2025 | Proformas
Happy Monday Morning! Last month we wrote a piece titled ‘Hold the Applause’ in which we cautioned the Carney Government for taking a victory lap following a bounce in September housing starts. For the record, we believe his policy team knows better, but couldn’t resist a good tweet. As we noted, The seasonally adjusted annualized […]
November 10, 2025 | No Bailout
Happy Monday Morning! The Carney government unveiled its highly anticipated fiscal bazooka. The deficit is pegged at $78.3 billion for this fiscal year, representing 2.5% of Canada’s GDP. That’s roughly in line with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The budget foresees an extra $167 billion in total budget deficits over the […]
November 3, 2025 | Worse Than The 90’s?
Happy Monday Morning! As expected the Bank of Canada slashed rates once again, bringing the overnight rate to 2.25%, and bringing the prime rate to 4.45%, it’s lowest level since June 2022. “There’s nothing to cheer about here. We’re lowering interest rates because the economy is under immense strain,” noted Warren Lovely, managing director with […]
October 27, 2025 | Hold the Applause
Happy Monday Morning! Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.4% in September, more than expected. Perhaps more intriguing is that rental prices are accelerating higher. They’re now up 4.8% year-over-year and 6.1% annualized over the past three months. A head scratcher for any regular reader here. So what does Stats Canada see that we don’t? […]
October 20, 2025 | Powder Keg
Happy Monday Morning! We do our best to steer clear of politics in this newsletter. However, there are times when politics can’t be ignored, especially when it comes to housing, which has become a social and political powder keg in recent years. It seems political careers largely hinge on the fate of the housing market […]
October 6, 2025 | Unsold Inventory Steve Saretsky
Happy Monday Morning! Last week we penned an article titled ‘Intervention Required’ in which we highlighted the growing chorus of developers demanding immediate government intervention to arrest the collapse in the new housing industry. With home sales in Canada’s largest major metro running 90% below the long term average, things are starting to get out […]
September 22, 2025 | Imminent Bounce
Happy Monday Morning! As expected, Tiff Macklem and the Bank of Canada slashed rates by 25bps this past week. The Bank pushed aside inflation concerns, suggesting “There was a clear sense that the balance of risk had shifted… Tariffs are weakening the Canadian economy.” Job losses are picking up momentum. The unemployment rate has ticked […]
September 15, 2025 | Cushioning the Downfall
Happy Monday Morning! As we discussed in our note last week, the economy is contracting and job losses are mounting, and so it’s chopping Time Again. The Bank of Canada is on deck with markets pricing in nearly 80% odds of a 25bps rate cut. According to BMO, there could be more coming. “We see […]
September 8, 2025 | Chopping Time, Again
Happy Monday Morning! Just a couple weeks ago we learned Canada’s second quarter GDP shrank at a 1.6% annualized pace, the biggest decline since the pandemic and the first contraction in nearly two years. While roughly in line with the Bank of Canada’s forecasts, the decline was worse than expected in a Bloomberg survey […]
August 25, 2025 | The Renewal Wall is Here
Happy Monday Morning! The housing market might be struggling but lenders are keeping busy. Data from the Bank of Canada shows uninsured mortgage originations surged in June, rising 27.5% year-over-year, the second busiest June on record. The only busier June for mortgage originations was back in 2021 when mortgage rates were hovering near 1.5%. Source: […]