August 12, 2025 | Militarizing the Capital

Trump’s decision to send the National Guard into Washington, D.C., will be defended as a matter of national security. History teaches us this is not about protecting the people at all. The National Guard was deployed to protect the political class from the people. The United States is now following the same path we have […]

August 11, 2025 | Vance Declares the US will NOT Fund Ukraine — Directly

In a drastic reversal of Biden-era policies, the Trump Administration has declared that it will no longer fund the Ukrainian war–directly. However, America is still keen on profiting from the war through the vast military-industrial complex, as Vice President J.D. Vance alluded to in a recent interview. The war will NOT be profitable for America […]

August 11, 2025 | Desperation Time

Happy Monday Morning! We’re back after a two week hiatus and a lot has transpired during that time. As we have been detailing for quite some time, the development industry is in survival mode. Pre-sales are in the dumps, developers are sitting on a record number of unsold units, and prices continue to leak lower. […]

August 11, 2025 | Housing Downturn is Bigger Economic Story Than Tariffs

As policymakers focus on tariffs, bursting real estate bubbles pose a significantly larger threat in terms of relative economic impact, and that’s now happening in several major economies simultaneously. Homes are the foundation of the household balance sheet and assets in the banking system. A 2025 Bank of Montreal report, “A Long Way Home”, concurs with our […]

August 10, 2025 | EU, NATO & Zelensky Plotting Against Trump

I am getting an increasing number of questions about how in the world our model forecasts war in advance and targets specific weeks like August 18th, 2025, a year in advance, and then Trump picks that Friday 15th for his peace conference with Putin in Alaska.  You NEVER make such a forecast using a single […]

August 10, 2025 | Soft Data Hardens

I remember when August was a slow month. School didn’t start until after Labor Day. Even in my adult days in the investment world, not much happened. People were either on vacation or coming back and getting ready for September. It’s hard to believe, but nobody really cared about Jackson Hole in the ’80s or […]

August 10, 2025 | AAPL Back Again as an Engine of Illusory Wealth

You’ve got to hand it to DaBoyz for reviving Apple as a ‘wealth’-effect dynamo. The company couldn’t innovate its way out of a wet paper bag, and it doesn’t even have a horse in the AI race. And yet, the stock recently lurched back to life, emulating those two bull-market superstars, Microsoft and Nvidia. Indeed, […]

August 10, 2025 | Portrait of a Crack-Up Boom, in Four Charts

The Austrian school of economics (the only good school of economics) has a concept called the “crack-up boom” that perfectly explains today’s world. Here’s an AI-generated summary: A crack-up boom is an economic crisis characterized by the collapse of a monetary system due to sustained, expansionary monetary policy leading to hyperinflation and a complete loss […]

August 9, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for August 9, 2025

Creative destruction: move fast and break things This week was short on scheduled market-moving economic data (setting aside the poorly bid bond auctions), but Trump (God bless’em) kept things lively.   Trump imposed a 39% tariff on Switzerland and a 50% rate on India (if they don’t stop buying Russian crude oil). Additionally, he imposed a 100% […]

August 9, 2025 | Trump Meets Putin for the Panic Cycle

  COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, we understand your frustration, and that reveals that you are genuine, not fake. I think you need to be commended for appearing on Russia Today, explaining that Trump is not a neocon, and your dinner with him shows you his character. Explaining that on RT coming from you, who your own […]

August 9, 2025 | This Week in Money

• Ross Clark: Stock Markets, Gold, Oil, USD, Canadian Dollar.
• Eric Hadik: (9:50) Stock Market Cycles, USD, Canadian Dollar, Bitcoin, Precious Metals.
• Hilliard MacBeth:  (34:19) Canadian Real Estate, Money Laundering, Gold, Stock Markets, Outlook for Electric Vehicles.

August 9, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 9th 2025

The Bottom Line Despite gains recorded by U.S. equity indices last week, technical evidence of an intermediate peak set in late July continues to accumulate. North American equity markets have entered their traditional corrective period in August and September during post-U.S. President Election years following an advance from April to July. Strength this year from […]

August 8, 2025 | Stablecoins: Washington’s Secret Weapon Against the Debt Spiral

The US Treasury plans to borrow over $1 trillion in Q3 2025, raising federal debt over $28 trillion. With foreign buyers pulling back from US Treasuries, the recent GENIUS and CLARITY Acts may signal a creative solution: using stablecoins to help fund America’s debt. What are Stablecoins? Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to […]

August 8, 2025 | Bank of England Cuts Interest Rates

  The Bank of England has cut its base interest rate to 4%, even as it warns of rising inflation. “We’ve cut interest rates today, but it was a finely balanced decision. Interest rates are still on a downward path, but any future cuts will need to be made gradually and carefully,” Governor Andrew Bailey […]

August 8, 2025 | Milei of Argentina Takes Another IMF Bailout

Argentina: Fiscal Fireworks and Another IMF Bailout Argentine President Javier Milei wants to make Argentina great again — with another $20 billion from the IMF. The bailout, approved in April, was controversial: nearly half of IMF board members were hesitant. Argentina already owes about one-third of the IMF’s total outstanding loans, and it’s defaulted nine times. But in this […]

August 8, 2025 | Is a Gold Backed Currency Likely Soon?

US company earnings booming while others lag

August 7, 2025 | US Treasury to Print $500 Bills?

Rumors are circulating that the United States may begin to print $500 bills. The US Bureau of Engraving and Printing began printing $500 bills in 1861 until 1945, formally discontinuing them in 1969 when Nixon moved to close the gold window. The US Treasury has since required banks to send all $500 bills back to […]

August 7, 2025 | Liberation Day 2.0?

Last night at midnight, goods from more than 60 countries and the European Union became subject to tariff rates of 10% or higher. Products from the EU, Japan and South Korea are taxed at 15%, while imports from Taiwan, Vietnam and Bangladesh are taxed at 20%. See the full list of U.S tariffs in place around […]

August 7, 2025 | Trump/Putin, Tulsi, Tariffs, Military, Arrests

Gold, Cryptos, Markets

August 7, 2025 | Is It Time to be Nervous in the Stock Market?

Do Cosmic Events really affect financials?

August 6, 2025 | The Rare Earth Elements Crisis – Why isn’t America Digging in Ukraine?

  America is desperate for rare earth minerals. China was supplying the US with around 70% of all such minerals, but they’re not going to supply them to an enemy nation to create weapons. As I mentioned yesterday, this is precisely why America is desperate to access Ukraine. I received a few comments asking why […]

August 6, 2025 | Crude Oil Falls >US$5/b From Last Week On Growing Supplies And Weak Summer Demand.

Crude oil prices have declined >US$5/b from a week ago (today’s low US$64.66/b versus US$70.13/b last week) as weak demand and rising inventories (see EIA section) offset President Trump’s aggressive moves on secondary sanctions and increasing tariffs on Russian oil buyers. Today the US increased tariffs on India from 25% to 50% as a result […]

August 6, 2025 | Having Skills vs. a College Degree

  One of my gym homies is a young man that is going to college to get a degree in Real Estate Development. “No college professors are going to teach you how to be successful in that business,” I told him. Instead, I advised him to quit college and go work for an experienced real […]

August 5, 2025 | The Rare Earth Crisis

QUESTION: If Trump imposes sanctions on China for buying Russian energy, what do you expect China to do? Rob ANSWER:  The deeper you look, the more it becomes abundantly clear. America’s defence supply chain is built on materials it doesn’t control. Missiles, fighter jets, radar systems, drones — all depend on a steady stream of […]