ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
August 12, 2023 | Consumer Foreclosures, Bankruptcies, Delinquencies, and Collections: Checking on the Hangover of our Drunken Sailors
Our Drunken Sailors have been out there spending money, and some of it comes from their surging income that has been outrunning inflation finally this year, and they’re spending money from their investment gains and from surging interest income from CDs, money market funds, Treasury bills, and savings accounts. And some are spending money they’ve […]
August 12, 2023 | FBI Carry Out Hit for Joe Biden
We all know that the intelligence agencies have become President Biden’s personal Gestapo. Biden is now permitted to carry out hits on those who defy him. Craig Robertson, a Utah resident, threatened the president on social media. Robertson is now dead. “I hear Biden is coming to Utah. Digging out my old ghille suit and […]
August 12, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For August 12, 2023
Interest rates keep rising. The 1-year T-Bill yield is at 22-year highs Treasury yields are rising as governments issue more debt to “fund” the difference between income and expenses. People will buy US government debt, but at what price? Governments have discovered that voters like fiscal stimulus (expect it to continue) and don’t care about rising deficits […]
August 12, 2023 | ECRI: Recession Still Imminent
Independent measurements and insights (i.e., not coming from investment sales firms) are very rare and valuable. You have to know where to look and also want to see. ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan updates on the business and market cycle in the segment below, starting at 3:50 on the play bar. MacroVoices welcome ECRI @businesscycle co-founder Lakshman […]
August 12, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 12th 2023
The Bottom Line Now is the time for intermediate swing traders to become patient! Led by the “Magnificent Seven” big cap technology stocks, U.S. equity indices came under short term trading profit taking pressures last week. Intermediate term and long term momentum data available at the end of this report shows that the S&P 500 […]
August 11, 2023 | London Riots
Hundreds of teenagers formed a mob and descended upon Regent Street in London after police issued a riot dispersal order at Oxford Street, as they were storming local stores and just looting everything. There has been a growing trend on social media calling for riots and looting in JD Sports. They shared posts on TikTok […]
August 11, 2023 | Deflation Risk in China is Real
The risk of deflation in China is real. A moderating pace of growth, large private sector debts and a slowdown in the crucial property sector suggest lower income, prices and deflation. Is China entering a debt deflation spiral? China has enjoyed a longer-than-four-decades income and wealth expansion that has rarely happened in the thousands of […]
August 11, 2023 | Recession Watch: October Surprise?
One of the things that kept many Americans financially afloat these past few years is the fact that student loan payments were suspended. That bought some time but apparently didn’t solve the underlying problem of low wages in an increasingly expensive world. Because it’s now becoming common to use credit cards to cover day-to-day expenses. […]
August 11, 2023 | Oxford Economics: Canada’s Real Estate Downturn “Far From Over”
After past housing bubble peaks in Canada and elsewhere, home prices contracted 25%+ nationally and stayed relatively flat in the following decade or so. That allowed incomes to advance on shelter costs and restore affordability over time. A similar pattern is the base case this time, as well. Much needed. Tony Stillo, director of economics […]
August 10, 2023 | JUST US – The Rising Tide of Civil Unrest
I have said that the reason they indicted Trump’s valet as a co-defendant in the Mar-a-Lago, was to pull the standard “extortion” where he is to perjure himself for the government or face 120 years in prison. This is how they win Conspiracy Cases. Federal Judge Jed. S. Rakoff wrote a book on the extortion […]
August 10, 2023 | Record Debt Payments and Rising Unemployment
US household debt has surpassed a fresh record of $17.1 trillion. $12 trillion is in mortgages (more than twice the 2006 bubble top), $1.6 trillion in auto loans, and over $1 trillion in credit card debt, all with the highest interest rates in 22 years and rising unemployment. Courtesy of Bloomberg, the chart below shows the […]
August 9, 2023 | Ramaswamy has Near Fatal Plane Accident
There is a price to pay for going against the global elite. I reported how GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy sued the World Economic Forum and won. Shortly after, his plane lost oxygen mid-flight and was forced to make an emergency landing. “Due to an unexpected cabin depressurization issue in his plane, Vivek Ramaswamy was […]
August 9, 2023 | People We Should Know: Martin Armstrong
Martin Armstrong has led a complex and tempestuous life — see this and this. But we’re not going there. His current work is what lands him on the list of People We Should Know. Armstrong is a consultant and forecaster who uses a prediction model he calls Socrates to identify and extrapolate trends in politics, economics, and finance. […]
August 9, 2023 | No Time For Delusions
Bullish sentiment roared back in the first half of 2023 on the blind belief that low unemployment numbers mean that this time is different and the sharpest monetary tightening in 40 years is not triggering a recession. In reality, changes in unemployment lag behind changes in monetary policy by 12 to 24 months, and mainstream […]
August 9, 2023 | Ellen Brown: War By Other Means: Short Selling JPMorgan Chase
When the FDIC put Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank into receivership in March, a study reported on the Social Science Research Network found that nearly 200 midsized U.S. banks were similarly vulnerable to bank runs. First Republic Bank went into receivership in May, but the feared contagion of runs did not otherwise occur. […]
August 8, 2023 | Ramaswamy Sued the WEF and Won
This story has not gained enough attention. GOP presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy took on the globalist elite of the World Economic Forum (WEF) for “creating a false perception” that he was involved in their organization. The WEF attempted to list Ramaswamy as a Young Global Leader but he denied their invitation. After repeatedly asking the […]
August 8, 2023 | “Normalized” Rates and Record Debt Mean Tough Times
Canadian banks are offering mortgage rates above 6% for 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6-year terms on new purchases (below via Ratehub). Home equity lines of credit are above 7%. These are historically average mortgage rates. The trouble is that after 13 years of unnaturally low rates (2009-2022), people are carrying debt loads far above the long-term […]
August 7, 2023 | Marines Deployed as US-Iran Tensions Rise
World War III continues to heat up as the US Marines have been deployed to the Strait of Hormuz. The military also plans to deploy F-16 and F-35 warplanes and an Amphibious Readiness Group/Marine Expeditionary Unit containing 3,000 troops. France24 says that Iran has attempted, sometimes unsuccessfully, to take control of 20 internationally flagged ships […]
August 6, 2023 | The Long Wave Versus the Printing Press
This is a reprint [with a few edits] of an article I wrote way back in 2010 — when a supercycle crash was already overdue: The fascinating thing about “long wave” analysis (broadly defined to include Kondratieff waves, Elliott waves, and William Strauss and Neil Howe’s Fourth Turning) is that while each theory uses its own indicators and terminology to show […]
August 6, 2023 | AAPL Takes the Lead…Lower
Last week’s commentary said the first big correction of 2023 had a ways to go, and that is still the case. If there were any doubts about this, Apple’s swan dive Thursday on punk Q2 earnings released after the close should have dispelled them. The most valuable stock in the world fell by nearly 5%, […]
August 6, 2023 | Turning Time, Part 2
My friend Neil Howe titled his latest book The Fourth Turning Is Here because, well, the Fourth Turning is here. It is no longer the decades-away crisis he and the late William Strauss described in their 1990s books. As noted last week, each “turning” is generally 20 to 25 years. We are in the last half of […]
August 6, 2023 | The Democrats Trying to Destroy the Supreme Court – AGAIN!
The Democrats sent a letter demanding Alito recuse himself on any such question regarding the power of the Supreme Court. Once again, just as FDR tried to stack the court to turn the United States into his vision of a Marxist Utopia following Stalin after he recognized the Communists as a legitimate government, they are […]
August 5, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For August 5, 2023
Stock market sentiment took another step away from “irrational exuberance” this week I wrote in the July 22 TDNotes: I’ve been skeptical of the “Magnificient Seven” rally for a few months, thinking that sentiment bordered on “irrational exuberance.” However, I respected the power of the rally and patiently waited for an opportunity to fade it. I thought the “$100 Billion in […]
August 5, 2023 | Wikipedia is now Officially Government Propaganda DO NOT DONATE ANYTHING
Larry Sanger, one of the founders of Wikipedia, states plainly it is now all propaganda DO NOT DONATE TO WIKIPEDIA
August 5, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 5th 2023
The Bottom Line North American equity indices reached an intermediate peak on or about July 27th. Thereafter, volatility increased significantly as prices moved lower. The period for increased volatility in North American equity markets has arrived. Intermediate downside risks exists between now and mid-October.