ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
October 23, 2023 | Watch Out, You Might Get What You’re After
Hold tight Wait ’til the party’s over Hold tight We’re in for nasty weather There has got to be a way Burning down the house Talking Heads – Burning Down the House If you haven’t noticed, we’re in for nasty weather. The swirling winds of a cloudy Fall day, as darkness descends upon the world, […]
October 22, 2023 | Golden Passports
The European Union (EU) has a new excuse to tighten travel restrictions. The European Commission published a report claiming five Caribbean states have sold “golden passports” citizenship to 88,000 individuals from around the globe, including China, Iran, and Russia. “Investor citizenship schemes (or citizenship-by-investment programmes, also commonly referred to as “golden passports”) run by third […]
October 22, 2023 | Supercycle of Debt
We have been looking at big historical/economic/political cycles for the past two months. We reviewed Neil Howe’s Fourth Turning concept, then George Friedman’s twin US institutional and socioeconomic cycles, then Peter Turchin’s “cliodynamics” concept, and then Ray Dalio’s Big Cycle. None of these theories exclude the others. It is quite possible they are describing the […]
October 22, 2023 | The Smell of Napalm in the Morning
It took nearly two weeks for bears to recoup their mojo after getting sucker-punched by a suspiciously buoyant market following the October 7 Israel massacre. Although the attack could lead to a nuclear conflagration and world war, Wall Street kept its cool while trade desk sleazeballs deftly distributed shares to the rubes. But Friday’s are […]
October 21, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For October 21, 2023
Weekly change: Gold up, bond yields up, crude oil up, stocks down, USD down Gold Gold rallied ~$185 from 8-month lows on October 6 to this Friday’s highs, with the front-month contract closing this week above $1980 for the first time since the mid-July Key Turn Date. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, […]
October 21, 2023 | Has the Rule of Law Collapsed in Germany?
I want to explain an incident when I was doing a world tour for the Forecaster Movie. In Europe, there would be a question-and-answer period after the film concluded. I was in Frankfurt, and a woman stood up and said this is what was wrong with America. It always protected the bankers. She was […]
October 21, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday October 21st 2023
The Bottom Line Brutal equity markets around the world last week! Equity markets responded primarily to rising U.S. long term interest rates. Not surprising, the CNN Fear/Greed Index dropped to 26, a level that borders on the Extreme Fear level. See https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
October 20, 2023 | Banks Need To Revise Their House Price Forecasts Down a Lot
Forecasts of increasing house prices in Canada by the economics departments of the large Canadian banks are wildly optimistic. This matters because it directly affects the risk assessment for their most important lending division — mortgage and consumer loans. Will they revise these forecasts lower in their reports for the year ending October 31 2023? […]
October 20, 2023 | Bonds Offer Capital Defence, Equities Do Not
Unlike bonds, equities offer no return of principal dates nor contractually prescribed income payments. Contrary to the investment sales hype bombarding us daily, dividend-paying equities are not capital ‘defensive.’ Defensive for whom, we should ask. From present valuation levels, equities are priced to underperform government bonds by 6.5% annualized over the next ten years […]
October 20, 2023 | German Authorities KIDNAP Reiner Fuellmich in Mexico – Interview with Fuellmich and the COVID Investigation Committee
Reiner Fuellmich, an attorney and international freedom advocate, has been detained by German authorities. Fuellmich is the leader of the International Crimes Investigative Committee and works with the Corona Investigation Committee, which is working to unveil the criminality surrounding the release of Covid and the criminal response that engulfed basically every country in the world. […]
October 19, 2023 | Crash Alert: That “Spinning Out Of Control” Feeling
Let’s start with regional and local banks, where two bad things are happening. First, their “safe” bond portfolios have tanked in the past year, embedding paper losses of around $700 billion industry-wide. These losses will produce a steady drumbeat of bad earnings reports in the coming year. But in the meantime, as interest rates rise, money market […]
October 19, 2023 | Liquidation Mode
Welcome asset price deflation: motivated sellers are listing everything, everywhere, all at once. And this is with unemployment just starting to rise. Wait for it…
October 19, 2023 | Soros Open Society Behind the Left’s Support for Hamas
The far left in America is supporting Hamas, a terrorist organization. They make it clear that they are supporting Hamas and not merely the innocent civilians of Palestine. Groups like Black Lives Matter have posted images of paragliders, which would have been akin to someone posting a plane crashing into a building shortly after 9/11. […]
October 19, 2023 | Up, Up and Away
It has now been three months since I claimed a “Code Red” market emergency in COMEX silver. I based that claim on two things: an increase in the short position of SLV, the big silver ETF, to 29 million shares; and an increase in the new Commitments of Traders report of just over 24,000 contracts […]
October 18, 2023 | Increasing The Primary Residence Housing Stock
All the talk about needing to deflate the cost of housing is finally getting serious. This week, B.C.’s NDP government tabled the Short-Term Rental Accommodations Act that, if passed, will ban most short-term rentals that aren’t within an operator’s principal residence. Effective May 1, the new restriction would apply in municipalities with a population of […]
October 18, 2023 | 30-Year Treasury Yield Spikes past 5%, 30-year mortgage rates hit 8%, Mortgage Applications Plunge
Today it’s the 30-year Treasury yield that pierced the 5% line. It currently trades at 5.02%, the highest since August 2007. The first of the long-term yields to spike through the 5% line was the unloved 20-year Treasury yield on October 3; it currently trades at 5.25%. These long-term yields above 5% are an indication […]
October 18, 2023 | Why Was the 1987 Crash Important Even for Today
COMMENT: I watched a pretend analyst who claimed the 1987 Crash was nothing. It is amazing how these people claim to be analysts yet do not understand the first thing about what took place behind the chart. I was there at your WEC in Princeton the weekend of the crash. I don’t remember if […]
October 17, 2023 | War is Coming
COMMENT: Thank you for your analysis of the Israel incident. We have to wonder what took place. Nothing makes sense. REPLY: Israel did not respond to the attack for many hours. This is not realistically possible. This appears to be a setup to expand the war against Russia, assuming they will support Iran, Syria, and Hamas. […]
October 17, 2023 | Good Time to Buy Gold?
For those of you who are on the hunt for opportunities beyond real estate, consider this: Managed money is back to a largish net short position in gold. The only other times managed money bet like this, gold did the following: Rallied 30% Rallied 32% Rallied 26%
October 17, 2023 | Pandemic Buyers Struggling To Unload Properties
Leverage on leverage on leverage, who would have thought? John Fincham, broker at Re/Max Parry Sound Muskoka Realty, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the Ontario cottage market. He says that many cottage owners who bought during the pandemic are now struggling to unload those properties. And as interest rates drive down prices he says cottages […]
October 16, 2023 | Did Israel Know About the Attack?
If this were a similar situation to 9/11, that would mean that the government was involved and allowed innocent civilians to die to promote an agenda. A false flag to create a global conflict. House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Michael McCaul (R-Texas) claims that Egypt notified Israel of a potential incoming strike from Hamas. Israel […]
October 16, 2023 | Small Caps Leading Lower
The economically-sensitive Russell 2000 stock index (RUT) has given back all of its early 2023 rebound and is now negative year to date, -29% from its cycle peak in October 2021 and just 1% higher than where it was in August 2018. The more concentrated US small-cap 600 index (SML in green below since April […]
October 16, 2023 | The Vortex
Happy Monday Morning! At the beginning of the year I was part of a real estate pannel with REW on the state of the Vancouver housing market. On stage, in front of a live audience, the moderator asked me for my forecast for 2023. I promplty noted at the time that “we’re going to have a year […]
October 15, 2023 | The Coming Middle East War
QUESTION: Why does Biden never discuss Iran, and the Democrats keep handing money back to Iran to fund their terror against Israelis and Sunnis? Are they trying to creat World War III? FG ANSWER: Look, there is much more going on behind the curtain than mainstream media reports. On August 3, 2023, a feud with […]
October 15, 2023 | Be Among the First to Panic
Finally, a rally in gold that looks capable of leaving the $2000 barrier in the dust! This one is being pushed not only by the threat of escalated conflict in the Middle East, but by the dawning realization that a strong dollar and rising interest rates are about to trigger a crisis for the world’s […]