ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
October 31, 2023 | World War III – It’s Inevitable
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; It is safe to say that nobody can hold a light to Socrates. Nobody has forecast war three years in advance as you did in 2011. Nobody has predicted a Middle East War in advance as you did two years ago. Even your posts on Turkey and its conflict with NATO, our […]
October 31, 2023 | Art of the Collapse, November 2023
Let’s start with an appealing vision of the afterlife… … and contrast that with the real world, where hedge fund assholes turn necessities like shelter into casino chips: Meanwhile, geopolitics is making life hard for the “I support current thing” crowd:
October 31, 2023 | China’s Real Estate Bust Has Global Implications
The International Monetary Fund warned this month that the downdraft in China’s real estate sector has contagion implications globally: In the near term, the sharp adjustment in China’s heavily indebted property sector and the resulting slowdown in economic activity will likely spill over to the region, particularly to commodity exporters with close trade links to China. Beyond […]
October 30, 2023 | Structural Issues
Happy Monday Morning! As expected, the Bank of Canada held interest rates at 5% for the second consecutive time. BoC’s Macklem flagged everything we’ve been highlighting in this newsletter for several months now. Weaker economic growth and a recent surge in global bond yields is doing most of the tightening for them. Adding, “The path […]
October 30, 2023 | Stock Market Likelihood is Lower for Longer
The average time from a yield curve inversion (long-interest rates below short) to the onset of recession has been ten months historically, ranging from 11 to 22 months. October marks the eighteenth month of curve inversion this cycle. Moreover, since June, the yield spread has been flattening out. As we start this trading week, […]
October 30, 2023 | In The War on Truth, It’s Time To Become Heroes
“Truth is treason in an empire of lies.” – George Orwell “The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. …We are […]
October 29, 2023 | Debt Catharsis
The ancient Greeks had a word κάθαρσις, which in English we now spell as “catharsis,” although it’s pronounced basically the same. It originally referred to purifying religious ceremonies, medical treatments, and so on. Aristotle was the first we know to have used the word in a non-physical sense. He compared the emotions felt by spectators […]
October 29, 2023 | Our #1 Bellwether Defies October Curse
Although my technical forecasts have generally been accurate, occasional guesses about when the sky would fall have consistently underimagined the height of bullish folly. Since yet another October looks likely to pass without a stock-market crash, perhaps it’s a good time to look at the chart of Apple, an institutional proxy that is incapable of […]
October 28, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For October 28, 2023
The Nasdaq had its best-ever first-half gain this year (~45%) but peaked in July and fell ~12% to this week’s lows The Nasdaq’s “defining moment” was made on July 18 when MSFT’s market cap soared ~$100 billion in an hour on an AI announcement, taking the share price to All-Time Highs of ~$367. Within three days, […]
October 28, 2023 | Powell’s Gonna Have a Cow When He Sees the PCE Inflation in “Core Services,” Housing, and Non-Housing Core Services
The spike in inflation in “core services” (all services except energy services) was the big nasty surprise – inflation is infamous for dishing up nasty surprises – in today’s release of the PCE price index for September. “Core services” is the index that Fed chair Jerome Powell has been hammering on, especially “core services without […]
October 28, 2023 | It’s Just Our Turn
This is not my only source about terrorist cells moving into the USA because Biden has opened the borders. The open border has had two objectives. Democrats in Texas are already pushing that illegal aliens should be allowed to vote. They are being joined nationally and Biden will do an executive order to […]
October 28, 2023 | Re-Steepening Yield Curve Signals Financial Trauma in Motion
In the past few months, short-term treasury yields have risen more than long-term such that the yield curve, which has been inverted since April 2021, is now un-inverting. This move typically signals the near-term onset of recession and the worst stock market losses. The chart below from my partner Cory Venable shows the move in […]
October 28, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday October 28th 2023
The Bottom Line According to www.EquityClock.com “October 27th marks the average start to the best six months of the year for stocks. Over the past five decades, the S&P 500 Index has gained an average of 8.12% between October 27th and May 5th.” In addition, the strongest nine day period in the year for the […]
October 27, 2023 | The Bank of Canada Needs To Worry About a Recession
The Bank of Canada kept its official interest rate at 5 percent on Wednesday, October 25, 2023. The Governor, Tiff Macklem, emphasized that the BOC is willing to hike rates higher if needed, as he is not happy with the rate of decline in the inflation measures. But the BOC also issued a lower forecast […]
October 27, 2023 | Canadian Recession is Here
David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research and Ed Devlin, founder of Devlin Capital, senior fellow at C.D. Howe Institute and former head of Canadian portfolio management at PIMCO, join BNN Bloomberg to discuss their economic outlook. They say that even as many believe a soft landing is still accomplishable, there are some metrics […]
October 26, 2023 | Biden: If There Were Not An Israel We’d Have to Invent One
For those wondering if the US is using Israel as a vassal state, simply look at what President Biden has been spewing since the 80s. “If there were not an Israel, we’d have to invent one,” Biden first said during a Senate session in 1986 after sending Israel $3 billion. Straight from the horse’s mouth, […]
October 26, 2023 | Luxury Losing Its Luster
What about wealthy people not being hurt by higher debt payments? Nonsense, as usual! As financial markets tumble, luxury spending follows. The slowdown is ubiquitous, folks. CNBC’s Robert Frank reports on spending pull backs from the luxury consumer and what it could be signaling for the economy at large. Here is a direct video link. Bank […]
October 25, 2023 | Mercantilism v Consumerism – China’s Direction
Mercantilism is the economic theory that trade generates wealth and is stimulated by the accumulation of profitable balances, which a government should encourage by means of protectionism, according to the Oxford Dictionary. We see nations like Germany rely on this model as they produce various products to export through trade. German manufacturing has provided the […]
October 25, 2023 | A Case of Overkill
It is not just rapid hikes in the overnight rate (525 basis points in 18 months by the US Fed and 475 basis points in Canada), which are contracting credit and slowing spending through the real economy. The drop in equity and bond prices, along with the jump in fossil fuel costs and the US […]
October 24, 2023 | The Unfolding Recession & The Coup
QUESTION: Mrt. Armstrong, Socrates has been a real lifesaver. It is refreshing not to have someone spinning their political views into everything. Socrates called for the high in GDP here in 2023 and that the high took place in May. Here, we have Biden creating money without regard for fiscal responsibility. Socrates has shown the […]
October 24, 2023 | Phase Change Disruption in Energy, Transport and Food
The Saudis see where the puck is going. Does Canada? Tony Seba updates on Phase Change Disruptions of Energy, Transportation, Food & Implications for Humanity. Here is a direct audio link.
October 23, 2023 | Private Equity “Landlords” Endangered By Falling House Prices
Recessions are necessary to clear out malinvestment before it poisons the whole economy. But they also hurt a lot of people who don’t deserve it, so they’re not a cause for celebration. Except when the people being hurt are private equity firms like Blackstone that have been buying up houses (sometimes entire neighborhoods) at inflated prices and then converting them […]
October 23, 2023 | Real Estate Getting a Comeuppance
Pops and financial wipeouts are the historical norm when a billowing housing bubble meets dramatically higher interest rates. On the upside, the pendulum is finally moving in favour of renters and future buyers. Buying housing has rarely been this unattractive relative to renting. The chart below shows that the average new US mortgage payment is […]
October 23, 2023 | Bell Ringer
Happy Monday Morning! It’s a big week for Canadian households living on the edge. The Bank of Canada is poised to meet on Wednesday to deliver an update on their rate hiking crusade. It is largely expected they’ll remain on the sidelines, as they should given the slew of weak economic data in recent weeks. […]
October 23, 2023 | Tyson Foods to Use BUGS to Create Our Food
The climate change psy-ops has simply gone too far. Schwab’s World Economic Forum has become like a cult declaring our last days are ahead unless we abide by asinine laws. Those promoting the Great Reset have said countless times that WE will begin to eat bugs to save the planet, and meat will no longer […]