September 8, 2024 | Our #1 Bellwether Is at Cliff’s Edge

I continue to believe the bull market’s fate can be divined simply by paying close attention to price action in Microsoft shares. The company is not only the second-largest in the world by capitalization, slightly behind Apple; it is also the most important. That’s because its huge stream of revenues is all but impervious to […]

September 7, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for September 7, 2024

The S&P fell over 4% this week, its worst weekly performance in 18 months The leading American stock indices fell every day this week, with the S&P giving up ~50% of the gains made during the rally off the August 5 lows. The weekly S&P chart shows a classic bearish “double-top with lower 2nd high” pattern. […]

September 7, 2024 | NY Judge Forced to Postpone Trump’s Case Until After the Election

  The latest video surfacing from a New York Federal Prosecutor’s office says what the entire world knows: that Bragg’s case is BS and that he has brought this case to climb the ladder politically. This is what prosecutors do. Since Guiliani prosecuted John Gotti and became Mayor, the same took place with Christi in […]

September 7, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday, September 7th 2024

The Bottom Line Brutal technical action by world equity markets last week! Equity markets are following their historic pattern of moving lower in the month of September. Offsetting was a drop in bond yields that triggered strength in bond prices. The price of the long term Treasury Bonds iShares popped to a 15 month high.

September 6, 2024 | A Weak U.S. Jobs Report

A weakening trend for the economy in the U.S. was confirmed on Friday. A recession is likely, although the official notification of recession will not come until 2025. The Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates later in September after declaring victory in the battle against inflation. We seldom get definitive clues regarding the […]

September 6, 2024 | The Jobs Number & Russia

The U.S. economy added fewer-than-expected new jobs last month because most economists still refuse to comprehend that there is such a thing as the business cycle. Here we have the Economic Confidence Model I explained, which I discovered while researching at the Firestone Library at Princeton University. That is NOT included in Socrates, in which I merely taught Socrates […]

September 5, 2024 | Goldman Sachs Predicts Stronger Economy Under Harris

Goldman Sachs, or Government Sachs as they are known in the industry, has bet on the establishment candidate. The person who has already spent four years in the White House will somehow repair the damage they caused to the US economy, according to Goldman Sachs, who strongly believes America should stay on the same losing […]

September 5, 2024 | Gold Stocks and Great Financial Bubbles Just Early into a Multi-Year Bull Market At Times Outperforming the S&P And With a World-Scale Discovery: Fabulous Action

A Great Financial Bubble is a very exciting event for everyone from direct participants to looky-loos, including an enraptured media. Generated by human action with far too many participants thinking the Bubble is unique and enduring. With five previous examples, gold’s real price weakened a little as the Bubble climaxed. A page of charts follow.

September 5, 2024 | Weakening Consumption Of Energy Products In The US & China Drives WTI Below US$70/b. We Are Nearing An Important Price Bottom.

Weakening demand in China and the US for energy products accompanied by a shrinking of the Israel/Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran war premium has driven WTI down to as low as US$69.15/b today (last US$69.40/b). This is US$5/b below last week’s level and is nearing our bottom target of US$66-69/b. Once this occurs it would be the first of […]

September 4, 2024 | Will Rate Cuts Help Canada?

The Bank of Canada voted to cut rates by 25 bps to 4.25%, marking the third consecutive rate cut. Inflation has allegedly slowed to 2.5% as of July, and Governor Tiff Macklem said that was reason enough to drop rates to attract investment. “If inflation continues to ease broadly in line with our July forecast, […]

September 4, 2024 | Rolex Watches: Mean Reversion in Action

  The Rolex Market Index typically increases by about 4-5% per year. But from 2020 to March 2022, the index rose by an incredible 76%.  Since then, however, the index has reversed course and has given up 2/3’s of those gains. How does this apply to housing prices? This same principal of “reversion to the […]

September 4, 2024 | Recession Warning in Wine, Watches, Art and Yields

Fine wine prices have tumbled back to the pandemic lows of 2020 due to falling consumption, globally. Fine wine prices are decreasing sharply amid rising inventories and low demand for some of the most expensive wine #MacroEdge pic.twitter.com/qzuVSh3ixd — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) September 3, 2024 Are consumers struggling financially or realizing that alcohol is toxic for […]

September 3, 2024 | Why Are So Many Canadian Real Estate Developments Going Bust?

Over the last year, more than 200 real estate developments in Canada became insolvent. Andrew Chang explains why, at a time of high demand for housing, a growing number of projects are falling through. Here is a direct video link. 

September 3, 2024 | Art of the Collapse, September 2024

Happy Labor Day!

September 3, 2024 | US 2024 May be Our Last

  This year’s election is shaping up to be decided in court rather than the ballot box. Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are preparing for what will become a very heated and nasty legal battle that is certain to tear the country further apart. The mainstream media will naturally betray the country and everything […]

September 2, 2024 | Kennedy & Eisenhower on the Military Complex

    Eisenhower Warned us: “In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist. We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic […]

September 1, 2024 | Your Portfolio and the Election

Labor Day weekend finds me in far northwest British Columbia, fishing with 29 of my readers. The conversations are deep and fascinating, and it should be no surprise that politics and markets are brought up more often than not. Labor Day is traditionally when most Americans, other than us political junkies, actually begin noticing politics. […]

September 1, 2024 | Countdown To Crisis, Catastrophe and Collapse

“All tyrannies rule through fraud and force, but once the fraud is exposed, they must rely exclusively on force.” – George Orwell “The future’s becoming muddled. The lines of vision are narrowing. But now they’re desperate. All paths lead into darkness.” – Frank Herbert – Dune Trying to decipher the path ahead becomes more difficult […]

August 31, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for September 31, 2024

The bloom is off the AI rose; capital rotates to other sectors Wednesday’s NVDA quarterly report was strong overall but failed to meet investors’ high expectations; the share price closed the week near its lows, down ~15% from the record highs made in June. The robust gains from big-cap tech provided most of the gains for the […]

August 31, 2024 | Why Tulsi Gabbard Endorsed Trump

August 31, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 31st 2024

The Bottom Line Look for relatively quiet North American equity markets this week. Traders are partially on holidays after returning from the Labor Day holiday weekend. Corporate news is quiet prior to release of third quarter results starting in the second week in September . Economic focus is on Canadian and U.S. August employment reports […]

August 30, 2024 | A Massive Glut of Unsold Condos Will Ruin The Toronto Housing Market

A massive glut of condominium apartments in Toronto threatens to sink the housing market. Condominiums were gobbled up by aggressive, highly levered speculators as a way of participating in the housing boom with minimal capital outlay. But now those apartments are hanging over a re-sale market with very few buyers. Investor-owners are losing money every […]

August 30, 2024 | Disappointing Demand is Dominant Theme

One after another, consumer-driven sectors are warning of tumbling demand amid still inflated prices and the highest real interest rates in 17 years. Although mortgage rates have fallen year-to-date, auto and home sales have continued to slump, with buying conditions the worst in decades (U of Michigan Home buying conditions below since 2000, courtesy of […]

August 30, 2024 | 94 US Banks Burdened by Uninsured Deposits – Risk of Bank Runs

A new study by Florida Atlantic University believes that 94 separate US banks are facing a significant risk of bank runs. The at risk banks have all reported a 50% or higher ratio of uninsured deposits to total deposits. Basically, they simply do not have the hard currency to shell out in the event of […]