ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
October 6, 2025 | Consumer Collapse in Motion
Add leverage and stir has been the recipe for economic expansion at all costs; thus, the seeds of a credit implosion have been planted (again). We reap what we sow, and so it goes. In this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman interviews Lakshmi Ganapathi from Unicus Research. They discuss why U.S. consumers are […]
October 6, 2025 | Unsold Inventory Steve Saretsky
Happy Monday Morning! Last week we penned an article titled ‘Intervention Required’ in which we highlighted the growing chorus of developers demanding immediate government intervention to arrest the collapse in the new housing industry. With home sales in Canada’s largest major metro running 90% below the long term average, things are starting to get out […]
October 5, 2025 | Interview: Gold $5K, Dow 65K, & Florida’s New Wall Street — Part 2 Armstrong Unfiltered
If you missed Part 1 click here
October 5, 2025 | Big Debt Cycles
Debt is a curse that can also be a blessing, depending on how the borrower uses it. Sadly, human nature seemingly ensures we often use debt unproductively—and not just as individuals. Governments have their own special way of using debt to buy benefits (and votes?) today that future generations will pay for. I have said […]
October 4, 2025 | The Trading Desk Notes for October 4, 2025
Leading global stock indices surge to record highs The S&P has rallied ~40% from its April lows, up ~13.5% YTD. The S&P is up ~5.5% since the FOMC cut rates on August 22 (blue ellipse), and signalled more cuts to come over the next few months. Big Cap Tech/AI continues to power the rally in US stocks, […]
October 4, 2025 | How a Fed Overhaul Could Eliminate the Federal Debt Crisis, Part I: The Fed’s Hidden Drain
From Scheerpost The Federal Reserve’s independence is currently being challenged by political forces seeking to reshape its mandate. The Fed has not always been independent of Congress and the Treasury. Its independence was formalized only in 1951, with a Treasury-Federal Reserve Accord that was not a law but a policy agreement redefining the relationship of […]
October 4, 2025 | AI at its Finest
October 4, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday October 4th 2025
The Bottom Line The calm before the storm! Frequency of quarterly reports by North American companies reaches a low point this week: Many companies are in the “quiet zone” period prior to release of results. Consensus shows that analysts are expecting lower earnings growth in the third quarter relative to the second quarter when earnings […]
October 3, 2025 | Cut Throat Competition in China Could Spread Worldwide
China’s War on “Involution” China is cracking down on “blind and disorderly competition,” also called involution. Factories keep building too much — solar, batteries, EVs — and prices collapse. That deflation spills abroad. How low can China push prices — and who gets crushed next? Western firms know the rule: compete with China and prices only […]
October 3, 2025 | DDB: Economic Cracks are Widening
Worthwhile macro update in this segment. Danielle DiMartino Booth, former Fed insider and CEO of QI Research, warns that the US economy is deteriorating rapidly with rising unemployment and corporate bankruptcies despite stock markets reaching new highs. Here is a direct video link.
October 3, 2025 | Taiwan Declines US Demand to Offshore Chip Production
The threat of losing military protection did not persuade Taiwan to move half its chip manufacturing to the United States. Top trade negotiator and vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun stated that the 50-50 proposal would not be considered or even discussed. Instead, Taiwan plans to focus on lowering US-imposed tariffs that now stand at 20%. Commerce […]
October 2, 2025 | Canada Joins UK With Up to Life in Prison for Hate Speech
In Canadian criminal law, “hate crimes” are not a single stand-alone offence, but rather ordinary criminal offences (like assault, mischief, or threats) that are motivated by bias, prejudice, or hatred. Some are specific indictable offences in the Criminal Code: Advocating genocide – s. 318: It is an indictable offence to advocate or promote genocide against […]
October 1, 2025 | Art of the Collapse, October 2025
Things took a dark turn in September. We’ll get to that. But first, the usual corruption and incompetence: Dashboard Now for that dark(er) turn, starting with a Ukrainian woman being stabbed to death on a train… …which was quickly followed by the Charlie Kirk assassination: Universities Quietly Cancel ‘Kill Conservatives 101’ Courses (BabylonBee) – In […]
October 1, 2025 | Economic Hits Keep Coming
While Washington deflects attention with yet another government shutdown standoff, US economic data deteriorated further in September; see US Consumer Confidence Falls to Five-Month Low on Job Concerns. The latest published U.S. Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) index came in at 94.2, down from 97.8 in August (on the lower left since August 2023). The share of […]
October 1, 2025 | Canadian Govt Prepares to Disarm Civilians
There has never been a positive outcome when the government sets out to disarm the people. Authoritarian states are the inevitable result. Certain semi-automatic weapons were prohibited in March 2025, with a one-year amnesty period for lawful gun owners to surrender their rifles through a buyback program. The government claims the buyback program is completely […]
September 30, 2025 | $20,000 of Added Value for Only $1,500
There’s nothing better than doing something you love – and making money from it. Here’s how Robert Campbell added $20,000 of value to an otherwise mundane and unexciting stairwell. Cost of Materials: $400.00 for beams and wood planking on the ceiling; $50.00 for relocating the light so it is centered on the airplane pic; […]
September 30, 2025 | Pandemic-Era Policies Crashing Down
The Pandemic policy response saw a frenzied mix of debt forbearance, government handouts, policies aimed at increasing debt to stimulate home buying and speculation, mortgage rates under 2%, and an immigration surge concentrated in a few areas, especially around post-secondary schools. Not surprisingly, as interest rates normalize, immigration slows, and the housing bubble deflates, all […]
September 30, 2025 | Left-Wing Violence Reaches 30-Year High
Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) has become a right-leaning moderate. His Democratic colleagues are promoting an environment of violence, urging constituents to “fight back” against “fascists.” The left approaches every major disagreement or news story with extreme violence that has recently peaked to a 30-year high. “Unchecked extreme rhetoric, like labels as Hitler or […]
September 29, 2025 | Credit Bubbles Cost Fortunes in the End
Years of reckless lending and borrowing are nearing another predictable end: surging defaults and losses. As Oaktree Capital Management’s co-chair and credit specialist, Howard Marks, has noted: “The worst loans are made at the best of times,” when credit and optimism are plentiful. While risk-sellers continue to insist that households are in good financial shape (just as […]
September 29, 2025 | Intervention Required
Happy Monday Morning! As we have been highlighting for quite some time, the new housing sector is in shambles and isn’t likely to improve for at least another year or two. As always, governments are slow to react despite a lot of hand waving from the private sector. Recent data from Altus Group shows us […]
September 29, 2025 | Digital IDs Mandatory in Britain by 2029
Mandatory digital IDs are coming to the United Kingdom by2029. Prime Minister Keir Starmer would like the public to believe that verification is a protective measure to curb illegal immigration. Digital IDs are a purely a CONTROL tactic. Once you allow the government to link every citizen to a digital profile, the next step […]
September 28, 2025 | Wall Street Finally Embraces Gold
For as long as most of us have been alive, the standard investment portfolio has consisted of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, with stocks providing growth while bonds protect against downturns. This worked beautifully, with the typical portfolio generating a reliable 8%-10% annual return. But it’s not working anymore. As the credit supercycle (which sent […]
September 28, 2025 | Disruptive Thoughts
Physicists have a concept called “entropy,” which basically says systems will tend to move from orderly to disorderly over time. Entropy is central to physics, thermodynamics, and other fields of physical science. Economics, however, isn’t a physical science. The way we allocate scarce resources isn’t bound by fixed laws of the universe. We have some […]
September 27, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for September 27, 2025
Buy The Dip has worked like a charm for years. Is it still a good idea? The S&P has rallied ~40% from its low in April and reached another all-time high this week. It’s up ~92% from the October 2022 lows, and more than 200% from the 2020 lows. It’s up 10X from the 2009 lows. Can […]
September 27, 2025 | Has Trump Has Guaranteed Our War Model Will Be Correct?
When President Trump actually addressed the United Nations General Assembly during his first term, I remember that he criticized globalism, drawing derisive laughter that momentarily derailed his remarks. This time, nobody was laughing. I had hoped that Trump’s flip-flop on Ukraine, which is now costing him sharply in the polls, would have just been […]