July 20, 2025 | Inflationary Confusion

If you listen to the media—both MSM and social media—it seems like everyone in the world wants lower interest rates. Historically low rates were the landscape for most of the last 15 years, and anyone who borrowed money enjoyed it. Savers, not so much, but the idea of going back to low mortgage rates, bank […]

July 19, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for July 19, 2025

The Trend Is Your Friend – summerweight edition! The S&P has rallied nearly 10X in the last 16 years. It is up ~3X from the covid lows five years ago. It’s up ~30% from the April 2025 “Liberation Day” lows. And this week, when the S&P fell ~100 points on “fresh news” that Trump was planning […]

July 19, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday July 19th 2025

The Bottom Line Focuses this week are on second quarter earnings reports by major U.S. and Canadian companies. Look for additional surprisingly strong results relative to consensus! Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies Source: www.factset.com The second quarter earnings season continues to surprise: 60 S&P 500 companies have reported results to date […]

July 18, 2025 | China’s Auto Industry is About To Crush The Competition — and Ford’s CEO Knows It

Chinese automakers are rapidly dismantling the global pecking order—and there’s growing evidence they’re about to take the top spot. Ford CEO Jim Farley has issued a stark warning: many Detroit automakers might not survive this existential threat. Take Xiaomi’s new electric sedan, the SU7. Priced between US$35,340 and $45,995, this EV boasts specs that outclass most […]

July 18, 2025 | Market Pulse – July 18/25

Equities & Major Indices The S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new record highs early in the week, before slipping on profit-taking ahead of key earnings reports. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also edged lower in the final sessions. Despite Friday’s dip, the Canadian TSX posted a weekly gain of around +1.1%, marking a year-to-date increase […]

July 18, 2025 | Health Prepping: Eliminate Those Forever Chemicals

All roads lead to the microbiome Of all the environmental horror stories circulating out there, “forever chemicals” might be the creepiest. It seems that we live in a miasma of artificial molecules that, once inside the human body, refuse to leave. Instead, they build up until they trigger cancer or some other lethal condition. Here’s […]

July 18, 2025 | 60% of Canadians Face Rising Mortgage Payments by 2026

  Canadians with a mortgage renewal in the near future are facing trouble ahead. The Bank of Canada released a new report detailing that around 60% of outstanding mortgages are set to renew in 2025 or 2026, and those homeowners are highly likely to see a rise in monthly payments. Most borrowers went into a […]

July 17, 2025 | The Stripper Index

One company has been looking to one of the world’s oldest professions to gauge the state of the economy—sex work. “The ‘stripper index’ is an unconventional economic indicator that correlates changes in sex work revenue, such as escort pricing, strip club tips, and related search interest, with broader economic cycles,” Erobella states on its website. […]

July 17, 2025 | Staying Focused Through Noise

In a series of heart-stopping swings, since mid-December, the tech-heavy S&P 500 and Nasdaq are currently up 2.9% and 2.7%, respectively, while the US dollar (as measured by the DXY) has fallen 10% against major trading partners. The more economically sensitive Dow Jones Index is down 2% since December, while the S&P 600 (small-cap companies) […]

July 16, 2025 | US Total Stocks Rise 9.0 Mb/d Last Week And Total US Demand Fell 1.68 Mb/d To 19.2 Mb/d. Pressure On Crude Prices Increases

Summary: President Trump is sending out his unilateral tariff deals. He is giving time for counterparties to come forward (by early August) with better deals that might provide some relief from exorbitant tariffs that would kill or end trade. Any tariff deal over 25% changes trade relations and makes trade nearly impossible. Crude oil is […]

July 16, 2025 | Downcycles Bring Opportunity For Those Who Can Resist Consensus Views

Toronto home sales rose 8.1% in June, but were still 35% below the decade’s average; the average home sale price dropped 5.2% year-over-year to $1,151,600. Condo sales in Toronto have declined by 75% over the past three years (-37% in Vancouver) and are down 22% from June 2024; at the same time, new listings are […]

July 16, 2025 | Japan & MNRA Studies

Some people are reporting that Japanese researchers were able to obtain vaccine and death records for 21 million people, and determined that those who died from MNRA came in “death waves” that took place 3-4 months after the injections, not right away. The data also reveal how long it takes for your death risk to […]

July 15, 2025 | Housing Bust Intensifies As Inventories Surge

One of the reasons so few houses were on the market over the past few years was the disparity between 7% current mortgage rates and the 3% mortgages that many homeowners had. It made no sense to sell a house with a cheap mortgage and buy a new house with an expensive mortgage, so millions […]

July 15, 2025 | UK Data Use and Access Act – Digital Wallets Coming

  The Data (Use and Access) Act, also known as the DUA Bill, has provided the UK government with the ability to roll out a series of programs that will eventually force citizens to participate in a digital ID program. The law was enacted with the premise of reinforcing security and providing convenience for businesses […]

July 14, 2025 | The World’s Largest Pension Fund Down $61B Last Quarter – Warning for Japan

The world’s largest pension fund, the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) of Japan, reported a $61.1 billion loss for the first quarter of the year. Half of the fund’s $1.5 trillion assets under management (AUM) are within overseas markets, and although susceptible to currency fluctuations, the true problem lies in the fund’s other 50% of its portfolio—government bonds […]

July 14, 2025 | Smart States Are Embracing Gold And Silver

  It’s nice that states are separating themselves into “smart” and “stupid” categories so Americans can tell where and where not to live. The issue of sound money, in particular, is indicative of a whole range of other likely tax/spend/regulate policies that affect quality of life. Let’s start with a flashing “don’t move here” signal […]

July 14, 2025 | The Only Game in Town

Happy Monday Morning! Last week we wrote a piece titled ‘The Next Shoe to Drop’ in which we suggested CMHC’s exposure to the rental market had gotten so large, so quick, it’s created quite the dilemma. The program in question is called the CMHC MLI select. An insurance product that helps finance rental housing by […]

July 14, 2025 | The Great Unraveling Brings Pain and Remorse

If we had a loonie for every person who believed, “You can never lose money in real estate.”  Unfortunately, many well-meaning older folks ignorantly aided and abetted younger folks into a massive housing bubble. Many are doing the same thing now with corporate securities markets back at historic highs. The masses are increasingly realizing and regretting capital […]

July 13, 2025 | Uncertain Moments

We like to say markets don’t lie. That may be so, but they can certainly send mixed signals. It happened last week when President Trump announced tariff rates on several important trade partners not so different from the ones he set back in April. Back then, stocks swooned, the dollar cratered, and bond yields soared. […]

July 13, 2025 | Jesse Colombo: Silver Has Broken Out

Jesse Colombo’s Bubble Bubble Report produces a lot of high-quality, in-depth reporting on precious metals. His latest digs into silver’s technicals and concludes that the long-anticipated run to $50 and beyond is now underway. Here’s an excerpt: Silver’s Bull Market Has Officially Begun Silver has officially broken out in a big way, kicking off its bull market. […]

July 13, 2025 | AI Story Gooses Stocks into the Ozone

Nvidia became the world’s first $4 trillion company last week, leapfrogging Microsoft, Tesla, Google and every other company struggling to stay in the AI game.  Our money is on Musk to compete the hardest. He is Nvidia’s biggest customer for their most powerful chips, which sell for as much as $200,000. Musk has been buying […]

July 13, 2025 | Will Mass Deporation Harm US GDP?

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas believes that mass deportation efforts will negatively impact US GDP. Projections speculate that GDP could decline by nearly a percentage point in 2025, followed by larger cuts in the coming years. GOVERNMENT SPENDING IS FACTORED INTO GDP. I have repeatedly warned that Donald Trump would be blamed for the […]

July 12, 2025 | The Illusion of Democracy

July 12, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for July 12, 2025

The bull market in risk assets continues Bitcoin reached new all-time highs this week, up ~60% from the April lows. Silver surged to a 14-year high, up ~42% from the April lows. Copper hit all-time highs of ~$5.90 (basis September Comex), up ~43% from April lows. Comex copper futures surged from ~$5.00 to ~$5.90 (~18%) in four […]