ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
April 14, 2025 | US-China Tensions Rise – Tariffs not the Concern
China and the United States are accustomed to trade wars. China is handling it as a business matter, but the bigger perceived threat is America’s involvement in the Taiwan Strait. The Chinese Defense Ministry issued a statement declaring that the United States has threatened national security by providing F-16 fighter aircraft to the Philippines […]
April 13, 2025 | The Uncertainty Recession
You probably noticed we are having one of those “weeks when decades happen.” Notice also, however, that we are still here. Your investments and businesses may be bruised but you’re still in the game. Fast-moving events are hard to cover in my letters. Anything I say could be rendered laughably wrong by the time you […]
April 13, 2025 | Living on the Edge
The U.S.-China trade war is an ongoing economic conflict that began in January 2018, characterized by the imposition of tariffs and trade barriers by both countries. Recently, tensions escalated as the U.S. raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, prompting China to retaliate with tariffs of 125% on U.S. imports, affecting global supply chains […]
April 13, 2025 | Time to Take Profits in Gold Mining Stocks? Jim Rickards Says Not Yet
Suddenly, gold miner shareholders have the problem everyone wants: They’ve made fairly serious recent money and now must decide whether to convert some of their paper profits to cash. Anyone who’s been round-tripped in a big position understands how serious this question is. Jim Rickards, author of a series of best-selling investment books, just weighed […]
April 13, 2025 | Round One vs. The Bear Goes to Trump
[Just ahead of last Monday’s steep plunge, I predicted here that an S&P reversal from 4820 would mark the end of the bear market. So far, SPX has rallied 646 points off an actual low at 4835. Bulls are not yet out of the woods, however, since a relapse could occur at any time. The stock market […]
April 12, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for April 12, 2025
Fear trumps greed, but volatility is mean-reverting The cash S&P hit 15-month lows on Monday, down ~21% from February’s all-time highs. It then rallied ~13% to Wednesday’s highs as Trump paused tariffs on most countries other than China, where he dramatically increased tariffs. Last week’s big drop and this week’s big gain were among the most […]
April 12, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday April 12th 2025
The Bottom Line Wild week for world markets! World equity indices moved higher (S&P 500 up 10.8% from its low on Monday), commodity prices in U.S. Dollars soared (GSG up 6.3% from its low on Wednesday) and the U.S. Dollar Index moved lower (down 4.5% from its high on Monday to its low on Friday). […]
April 12, 2025 | 17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow: 20 – 25% Initial Plunge
Outlook 2025 Eerie Parallels 02-27-25 – 2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major decline in the stock market (not including the ~2-month Covid plunge of 1Q 2020). 2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the inception of Bitcoin and the move toward decentralized banking. 2025 is two full 17-Year Cycles from the […]
April 11, 2025 | Markets Rally, Bonds Break, Gold Soars—What You Need to Know
Markets End Volatile Week with a Strong Rebound – April 11, 2025 Markets capped a wild week with a strong finish, shrugging off trade war shocks and riding a wave of optimism: Stocks Bounce Back: After days of volatility, the Dow surged 600 points (+1.6%), the S&P 500 climbed 1.8%—its best week since October 2023—and the […]
April 11, 2025 | White House Trade and Tariff Advisor Navarro Could Become a Scapegoat
Dr. Peter Navarro is the Harvard-educated PhD economist behind President Trump’s radical reciprocal tariff plan. Navarro pushed Trump to impose higher tariffs on almost every country, including an island that is inhabited only by penguins. But signs of disagreement over trade are mounting as Trump’s aggressive tariff moves trigger retaliation from many exporters, including China, […]
April 11, 2025 | ActBlue Scandal – Democratic Party Funded by Fraud
ActBlue is a self-proclaimed grassroots fundraising platform for the Democratic Party. The Democrats want the public to believe that the everyday American fully supports them, but the truth has come to light after an ongoing investigation found that the organization has been upheld by dark money from both “foreign and domestic fraudulent actors.” […]
April 10, 2025 | Gold Miners: Great Q1 Earnings Coming
We’re heading into another earnings season, and with gold outperforming pretty much everything else, this one is looking even better for the miners than Q4. For context, here’s the XAU gold/silver miners index for the past six months. Note the nice run that started when excellent Q4 miner earnings combined with a rising gold price: And for […]
April 10, 2025 | Bouncing Downhill
Yesterday afternoon, news of a 90-day US trade tariff pause sparked jubilation in stock markets. The 9.5% bounce in the S&P 500 was the third-best day since 1950, and other indices followed suit. Lest we lack perspective, the other two best S&P 500 days were +12% on October 13, 2008, and +11% on October 28, […]
April 10, 2025 | The Media Coup to Undermine Trump & Transform Republicans into Democrats
Bloomberg has actually come out as proclaimed: “With the Nasdaq 100 already in a bear market, soon it may be the S&P 500’s turn.” All we hear are hysterical forecasts, all emotionally charged because the number one thing they taught in economics class was the Democratic propaganda from the 1932 election – Tariffs & Protectionism […]
April 9, 2025 | Markets Now Move at Trump’s Whim
Forget AI hype. Forget earnings. These days, stock prices hang on one thing: what President Trump says next. His words spark chaos, drive momentum, and overshadow everything else. After announcing ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on April 2, markets plunged for four straight days. Then, at 1:18 PM today, he took to social media to say he’s ‘substantially […]
April 9, 2025 | Climactic Sell-off For The General Stock Market Nearly Over. Energy Stocks At Bargain Levels. BUY!!!
I will be on this week’s MoneyTalks show with host and friend Victor Adair (Michael is on holiday) The roller coaster markets and specifically the energy sector will be the topics. This should be an interesting conversation that you may want to listen to. Go to MoneyTalks.com. The tariff war is now on (China now […]
April 9, 2025 | Driving Drunk Without Brakes
I’ve continuously pointed out the danger of asset bubbles because they commonly lead to a slippery slope of destructive behaviours, threatening the health and stability of individuals, businesses, and the economy. After a dramatic wipeout in March 2020, stock prices rebounded into December 2021 before plunging into October 2022. Rebounding again, some sectors finally reclaimed […]
April 8, 2025 | China is the Auto Capital of the World
China is the world’s largest car producer and exporter. A little-known fact is that China first became the world’s largest car exporter back in 2023, with low-cost EV companies BYD and Chery in the spotlight. The nation’s auto sector has been steadily expanding since then, with Chinese brands reaching an all-time high of 69.4% of […]
April 8, 2025 | Watch the Gold/Silver Ratio
Just a quick reminder that in times of market stress, gold and silver will sometimes diverge, with gold catching a safe haven bid and silver selling off as a cyclical industrial commodity. During such times, silver can get very cheap relative to gold, an imbalance that’s usually rectified by silver outperforming for a while. This […]
April 8, 2025 | “This Type of Thing Usually Ends with Forced Liquidations”
Understanding that “defensive” equities offer little protection in bear markets is critical to meaningful capital protection. The table below (courtesy of Gary Shilling) shows what happened to different sectors and the S&P 500 index overall during past recessions. Trying to hold through deep declines is hard; most people understandably panic after they have sustained big […]
April 7, 2025 | The Next Lost Decade
Happy Monday Morning! As we reported a few weeks ago, consumer confidence in Canada has plunged to twenty year lows amidst growing job losses and a global tariff war. The lack of confidence is showing up in home sales, which have fallen off a cliff in recent months. Recent data for the month of March […]
April 7, 2025 | Part II – Gold Manipulation?
PART II QUESTION: Is he breaking the London metals dealers’ hold to suppress the gold price? FD ANSWER: I am tired hearing the same constant bullshit about gold is suppress intentionally by dealers and that is why it is not $10,000. I have traded against these people for years. Here is a clip from the Forecast with […]
April 7, 2025 | Asset Bubble Bug Finds Another Windshield
Financial commentators predictably blame the Trump administration for ‘unexpected’ market losses. Two things about that: the tariff file was not unexpected. Trump has promised to do this for a long time. Secondly, major downdraft cycles are the natural and recurring aftermath of debt abuse and asset bubbles. Reckless risk-taking was an international pastime during the […]
April 7, 2025 | Ellen Brown: McKinley or Lincoln? Tariffs vs. Greenbacks
William McKinley and Donald Trump By Ellen Brown / Original to ScheerPost President Trump has repeatedly expressed his admiration for Republican President William McKinley, highlighting his use of tariffs as a model for economic policy. But as critics note, Trump’s tariffs, which are intended to protect U.S. interests, have instead fueled a stock market nosedive, […]
April 6, 2025 | China Retaliates with Tariffs and Trade Restrictions
China imposed a 34% retaliatory tariff on all US goods that will go into effect on April 10. Nations everywhere are beginning to impose their own penalties on US goods. April 2, “Liberation Day,” may well be remembered as the beginning of the end for Trump’s legacy. Trump hit China with a 34% tariff […]