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July 8, 2025 | Mindless Flows are Not Loss Protection
Vanguard founder and ETF pioneer, Jack Bogle, warned that if index funds came to own half of the U.S. stock market, it could lead to significant issues, like too much influence concentrated in just a few institutional owners, which he believed would be “a problem” for corporate governance and overall market function. According to the […]
July 8, 2025 | Why Public Funds Should Be Deposited in Publicly-Owned Banks
From JustMoney.org A thriving economy requires that credit flow freely for productive use. But today, a handful of giant banks diverts that flow into an exponentially-growing self-feeding pool of digital profits for themselves. Rather than allowing the free exchange of labor and materials for production, our system of banking and credit has acted as a […]
July 7, 2025 | The Next Shoe to Drop
Happy Monday Morning! Where do we start. This newsletter has been covering several big themes this year. We have long argued that housing starts are in the process of falling off a cliff. Both cities and provinces would start to panic as tax revenues dry up. They’ll be forced to ease development fees and boost […]
July 7, 2025 | Financial Health is a Marathon
Toronto-area home sale prices dropped by 5.4% annually in June–the fifth consecutive year-over-year decline. While lethargy is glaring in condos, detached home sale prices fell the most, with a 6.5% year-over-year drop. The average Toronto June sale price of $1.01 million represented a 17% decline from the February 2022 peak of $1.21 million. Sales for […]
July 7, 2025 | Connectivity is Power
I have been stating all along that attempting to forecast gold in isolation is the equivalent of summoning a witch doctor for cancer. Everything in this world is connected. Civilization unfolds as a synergy of people coming together and the sum is greater than the individual parts. This, too, is what the government is […]
July 6, 2025 | Kerry Lutz: Did Martin Armstrong Predict the Great Decline?
Conversations with the Master Forecaster This book is unlike anything you’ve read before. It’s not another theory — it’s a documented track record of how Martin saw what no one else did: ✅ Sovereign debt implosions ✅ War cycles and geopolitical shifts ✅ The coming collapse of trust in governments ✅ The timeline to 2032 — […]
July 6, 2025 | At The Crossroads
Happy Fourth of July! I hope you’re enjoying a long holiday weekend. That’s what I am doing, so this letter will be a little different. But first, this is a very special Fourth of July. It is the beginning of a year-long celebration of the 250th anniversary of signing the Declaration of Independence. And truly, we […]
July 6, 2025 | T-Bond Bottom Could Herald the Start of Trump’s ‘Golden Era’
We’re all waiting anxiously to see whether Trump’s bold initiatives usher in a golden economic era. If this is going to happen, we should see the Dow Industrial lurch toward 100,000 at any time. Just a few short weeks ago, you could have counted me among the skeptics. It is a habit that has become […]
July 5, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for July 5, 2025
The S&P, NAZ and TSE hit new record highs this week The S&P is up ~30% from the April lows (~7% YTD), the NAZ is up ~40% from the April lows (~8% YTD), and the Toronto Composite is up ~22% from the April lows (~9% YTD). Big Cap Tech has led the rally, with MSFT up ~45% from the […]
July 5, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday July 5th 2025
The Bottom Line Passage of “The One Beautiful Bill” by Congress late on Thursday and signed by President Trump on Friday is expected to set the stage for North American equity markets to move higher this week. The “Summer Rally” that frequently lasts until the end of July started last week. Consensus for Earnings and […]
July 4, 2025 | Clean Energy Reclaims Market Leadership
At the start of the year, the narrative was straightforward: fossil fuel producers stood to benefit from supportive domestic policy, while clean energy—out of favour politically and commercially—looked set to lag. Markets had priced in a resurgence in drilling, with investor consensus leaning heavily toward traditional hydrocarbons. That view hasn’t aged well. Six months on, […]
July 4, 2025 | Happy Fourth of July
Today marks the anniversary of a revolution—not merely against a king, but against tyranny in all its forms. The Founding Fathers didn’t establish a democracy; they created a constitutional republic, understanding full well that democracy often devolves into mob rule and eventually leads to tyranny. As always, Socrates is tracking the path ahead. The […]
July 3, 2025 | Recession is Here?
David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes recession odds are higher than 2022 despite nobody expecting one, pointing to Fed staff forecasting 50% recession probability and the most downbeat Beige Book since 1980. Rosenberg criticizes Powell for calling the economy “solid” while real GDP has been negative sequentially in 2 of the past […]
July 2, 2025 | US Crude Product Inventories Rise 9.6 Mb Last Week As US Gasoline Consumption Falls Materially
Summary: President Trump wants to sign his ‘BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL” on Independence Day – July 4th but the alternative Senate and House bills need to be reconciled and then voted upon again before being sent to the President. Big differences on Medicaid access, the SALT deduction for high tax states (I.e. Blue Democratic States with […]
July 2, 2025 | The Economic Confidence Model v the 80-Year Cyclical Theory
The concept of cycles is becoming accepted in Western culture. Recently, people have been focusing on what they deem the 80-year cyclical theory, which marks a significant shift in humanity. While this may be true, as it takes a few generations to change society, they are not incorporating the additional nuisances associated with the […]
July 2, 2025 | Why the Gold Bull Market Has Legs, in Six Charts And silver…
There are a lot of “xx priced in gold” charts floating around, most of which show that stocks, houses, and pretty much everything else aren’t actually going up in real (i.e., gold-adjusted) terms. They only appear to be in bull markets because we’re measuring them with declining fiat currencies. Here’s an unusual example: The Porsche […]
July 2, 2025 | Chinese Economy Disappointed in June
Leland Miller, China Beige Book CEO, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the state of China’s economy, impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations, how much leverage the country has over the U.S., and more. Here is a direct video link.
July 1, 2025 | 43% of Americans Near Poverty Place Essential Purchases on Credit
The PYMNTS Intelligence report “Financial Lifestyles Shape Credit Reliance” revealed that American consumers are struggling to afford the basic essentials. Prices have been elevated since the worldwide pandemic shutdown the global economy and have not gone down in a meaningful way. The study found that 43% of American households who are a paycheck away from […]
June 30, 2025 | Art of the Collapse, July 2025
Another month, another war. And more AI babies… This week, Florida opened “Alligator Alcatraz.” Speaking of AI, it seems to no longer care what we think:
June 30, 2025 | Opportunity for Canada
Canada needs to build things the world wants. A Canadian car company is rolling in a zero-emission vehicle called ‘Project Arrow’. CTV’s Sean Leathong reports. Here is a direct video link. Also, see Donald Trump’s disdain for wind energy could create windfall for Nova Scotia: experts: New England states and New York have been leading development […]
June 30, 2025 | NYC Mayoral Candidate Wants to Tax White Neighborhoods
New York City’s far-left mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani is the human embodiment of the WOKE Socialist agenda. His “progressive” views are based on policies that have failed countless times. Mamdani’s most recent proposal has sparked controversy as he believes that predominantly white neighborhoods should pay higher taxes. Socialists feed on increased taxation to support the […]
June 29, 2025 | The Four Faces of War
QUESTION: You are pessimistic about a resolution in the Iran-Israel conflict. Why is this different from Ukraine or even Vietnam? Jake ANSWER: This conflict between Iran and Israel is far more serious because it is Religious, not Ethnic, philosophical, or Conquest. The Ukraine conflict is ethnic. Ukrainians wrongly hate Russians because Stalin took their food and starved millions. What they REFUSE to admit […]
June 29, 2025 | The Huge AI Story May Not Be Quite Huge Enough
The S&Ps and Nasdaq hit record highs last week, a surreal milestone that only the Wall Street toadies at Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal who fabricate the news could take seriously. These are the same folks who bestowed the name ‘Magnificent Seven’ on a bunch of high-flying stocks whose short-squeeze histrionics qualify them for membership in […]
June 29, 2025 | The Great Slowdown
Economic news is increasingly hard to follow these days, mainly because it changes so fast and it gives so many mixed signals. Less than three months ago, we were all in shock from President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. While he paused the worst parts of that plan, US import taxes are still at their […]
June 28, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for June 28, 2025
This year’s S&P rally to new all-time highs, after dropping more than 20% in three months, was the quickest ever! The S&P has dropped by more than 20% four times in the last 10 years. (2018 down 21% in three months, 2020 down 36% in two months, 2022 down 27% in ten months and 2025 down […]