ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
May 27, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For May 27, 2023
Nvidia Following a quarterly report described by one analyst as “The greatest beat of all time,” Nvidia’s market cap soared by >$200 Billion on Thursday, the largest one-day value increase of any company in American equity market history. The company’s market cap at the beginning of this year was ~$350B; at Friday’s close, it was ~$960B. The share price at […]
May 27, 2023 | More “In Gold We Trust” Charts
The US just reported that core PCE, “the Fed’s favorite inflation measure,” accelerated in April. This worsens the central bank’s dilemma: Growth is clearly slowing, while inflation, already at crisis levels, is rising. Luckily, the genius chart makers at Incrementum AG are on hand with a new “In Gold We Trust” report that addresses this very issue. Here’s a short […]
May 27, 2023 | Lacy Hunt Update on Financial and Business Cycle
For those that want to skip to the bottom line, a discussion of the latest money flow data begins at the 29-minute mark on the play bar. Dr. Lacy Hunt and I discuss how excessive debt never ends well. Additionally, we explore the history and current structure of debt and interest rates relative to the […]
May 27, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday May 27th 2023
The Bottom Line Big cap technology stocks and their relation to Artificial Intelligence (AI) dominated upside technical action last week. Excluding stocks in this sector, most U.S. and Canadian equity sectors moved lower. Resolution of the U.S. debt ceiling has not arrived yet. New deadline officially is Friday June 5th, but unofficially the deadline is […]
May 26, 2023 | Fed’s Favored Core PCE Price Index Re-Accelerates, Driven by Services, Motor Vehicles: Inflation Stuck on High, Shifts from Item to Item
The inflation index favored by the Fed, the core PCE price index – which, by excluding the food and energy products, is a measure of underlying inflation – re-accelerated in April, as services inflation re-accelerated back into the red-hot zone, and as durable goods prices rose, after falling for months, driven by a jump in […]
May 26, 2023 | The Bank of Canada Sounds Worried
The Bank of Canada uses more alarmist language in its latest Financial System Review (FSR), a regular report that discusses the risks to the Canadian financial system. Should we be more worried about Canadian banks? Canadian central bankers write an assessment of the health of the Canadian financial system on a regular basis, highlighting risks […]
May 26, 2023 | Tech Mania Magnifies Downside From Here
In the latest AI-driven chapter of mania, chipmaker Nvidia has leapt 186% year to date and is trading about 15% above its November 2021 top. At less than $50 billion in expected 2023 revenue and a current market cap of $1 trillion, the stock is trading about 44x expected sales. Pure madness. There’s no math […]
May 25, 2023 | Chinese Illegals Entering America Surge over 900%
The US government is responsible for opening the border and allowing a full-scale invasion. They announced the end of Title 42, unlike other measures they keep hidden, and gave outsiders the information they needed to plan their invasion. There were numerous stories about Chinese spies infiltrating America. Companies were prohibited from conducting business with certain […]
May 25, 2023 | Deflationary Forces on Deck
Will Debt Debate Finish the Fed’s Inflation Battle? — DiMartino Booth joins Charles Payne of Fox Business News to discuss. Here is a direct video link. As shown below, inflationary pressures have come off hard year over year (Trueflation data here). As monetary and fiscal forces contract, recession, rising unemployment, excess supply, and overcapacity are formidable […]
May 24, 2023 | 30 Tons of Ammonium Nitrate Goes Missing
(video from Dyno Nobel’s YouTube channel) A lot of expensive and lethal weapons of war have been reported missing this week. There have been numerous train derailments in America this year, and trains containing lethal materials routinely do not make it to their final destination. A railcar holding over 60,000 pounds of ammonium nitrate left […]
May 24, 2023 | Recession Watch: 10 “Hard Landing” Charts
firmly in the rearview mirror. Most Americans still have jobs. And the debt limit pseudo crisis is in its final inning and — if history is any guide — will be resolved soon. So why does it seem like we’re tipping into a recession, or something much worse? The general answer is that behind the […]
May 24, 2023 | Now Playing: 6th Major Housing Downturn Since 1960s
The median new US home in April sold for $420,800 -15% lower than the peak last October. Less spending is evident in home improvement spending too. Yesterday, Lowe’s joined Home Depot in announcing a year-over-year decline in same-store sales (the first since 2009) with a marked fall-off in big-ticket purchases. Higher interest rates and falling […]
May 23, 2023 | Commercial RE: Mean Reversion in Progress
Of course we do not live in the future, but investors have to be prepared for it. Commercial RE prices fell 37% during the last downturn as investor expectations became too high in Sept 2007. And as is usually the case, when overly optimistic expectations are met with the reality that prices don’t […]
May 23, 2023 | Largest Property Owners Strategically Defaulting on Mortgages
Some property owners are defaulting on mortgages because they lack the cash flow to make payments; others are defaulting to cut investment losses and hand properties over to lenders. See, Top property owners are credit-worthy–they might default anyway: “The thinking was that the institutions would be the last to give the keys back, but it may […]
May 22, 2023 | France to Confiscate All Private Land by 2025
QUESTION: I am writing to you today to seek your expert advice on a much-discussed topic in France: the Lagleize Law. As you probably know, this law, if passed, could radically change the way property ownership is structured in France. The Lagleize law proposes to separate the ownership of the building from the land on […]
May 22, 2023 | Becoming Invisible, Part 3: Hiding From Google
The ultimate goal, of course, is to completely dispense with Google, Facebook, and all their surveillance capitalist brethren. But for most people (including me) that’s a huge leap into the unknown. So … baby steps. For now let’s say you’re using Gmail, the Chrome browser, and/or Google Search and you’d like to minimize the amount […]
May 22, 2023 | No Need to Panic, Yet
Happy Monday Morning! Inflation came in hotter than expected in April. Headline inflation ticked in at 4.4%, well above the 4.1% that was expected. It was the first month over month increase in the rate of headline inflation since June 2022. Naturally, panic ensured shortly thereafter. Markets immediately removed their expectations for a rate cut […]
May 21, 2023 | One-Third of Canadians Support Killing the Homeless – Modern Eugenics
Canada’s largest eugenics program is underway after MAID (Medical Assistance in Dying) was expanded to include those without terminal illnesses. Someone may qualify for MAID if they are simply “too poor to live with dignity,” according to the Canadian government. A recent poll found that, while most Canadians are against the idea, one-third support assisted […]
May 21, 2023 | Did the Bear Rally Top on Friday?
Maybe. Yeah, right. A headline here just two weeks ago implied that stocks were about to go bananas: Why a Permabear Is Certain We’re Going Much Higher. Hubris aside, this was based on the very bullish chart of just one stock, Chipotle (CMG). It had just crossed the $2,000 threshold and appeared — still appears — […]
May 21, 2023 | Technology Turning
We often talk about technology’s influence on the economy. After the Strategic Investment Conference, though, I’ve decided that isn’t strong enough. It’s more correct to say technology is the economy. But when I use the word technology here, I’m not talking about the big, nifty eight tech companies that dominate today’s stock market. I’m talking […]
May 20, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For May 20, 2023
The US Dollar rallied against virtually all currencies over the past two weeks The US Dollar Index hit a 20-year high last September but then trended lower (down ~12%) to support levels ~101. Net speculative positioning was very bullish on the USD leading up to the September 2022 highs. It had turned very bearish at the recent […]
May 20, 2023 | Is Zelensky Concerned About a Coup?
There are quiet whispers inside various EU governments that Zelensky should resign. Inside Ukraine, it was highly suspicious that in January, conveniently, Ukraine’s leading officials in the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine (similar to our FBI) charged with protecting the state and the people against illegal actions by those in power all died in […]
May 20, 2023 | Chinese Property Market in Turmoil Too
The segment below offers interesting insight into the Chinese real estate cycle as the easy credit era ends. Similar trends are happening around the world, all at the same time. The May Day Golden Week used to be one of the peak seasons for real estate sales in China. However, this year’s May Day holiday […]
May 20, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday May 20th 2023
The Bottom Line Lots of noise, typical for the month of May and the first three weeks of June! On the positive side, any stock remotely connected to Artificial Intelligence soared last week. The S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ 100 Index briefly touched nine month highs on Friday thanks to their technology equity content connected […]
May 19, 2023 | A Geopolitical Event Could Rock the Financial Markets
Geopolitical events can move markets, if only temporarily. Crises on a world scale frighten investors, causing them to make hasty decisions that can be harmful to their financial success. Could a geopolitical event cause investor panic? The history of geopolitical events shows that markets can survive most events without much trouble. For example, a […]