ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
November 9, 2023 | The Migrant Crisis – You Ain’ Seen Nuffin Yet!
We have a monumental crisis with the migrants, for we already know that Middle East terrorists have already entered thanks to Biden’s look-the-other-way policy. The proposal Republicans are pushing is that migrants would also be ineligible for asylum if they have been convicted of felonies or other “serious crimes,” including DUI or certain drug offenses. […]
November 8, 2023 | Are There Too Many People Or Too Few?
With financial collapse and global war inching closer every day, you’d have to be an anxiety junkie to worry about distant things like demographic trends. Still, the population debate is interesting, with economists, statisticians, and techies disagreeing over whether the world of 2100 will have too many people, too few, or just the right number. […]
November 8, 2023 | “Serious slowdown” as Global Liquidity Contracts
This discussion offers insight into the origins of QE and what follows as fund flows reverse (QT). Richard Werner, Professor of Banking and Economics at the University of Oxford, regarded as the “Father of Quantitative Easing”, discusses the future of monetary policy. Here is a direct video link. Of course, it is not just quantitative tapering […]
November 7, 2023 | Central Bank & The Taking of Assets?
I will be covering this in detail at the WEC in a couple of weeks. We are getting the same Conspiracy Theories regurgitated and twisted around. People are asking what is real and what is not. Suffice it to say, when you buy shares and leave them at the brokerage house, they remain in THEIR […]
November 7, 2023 | Dash for Cash Intensifying
More than a decade of near-zero interest rates spawned a generation of bonkers financial decisions. Now, we are in the reveal and clean-up phase. Unlike fixed-term mortgages, other forms of credit quickly change with overnight policy rates set by central banks. As shown below, since 1960, courtesy of the Daily Shot, non-mortgage interest payments now […]
November 7, 2023 | Mortgage & HELOC Balances, Delinquencies, Foreclosures: How Are our Drunken Sailors Holding Up?
Mortgage balances outstanding ticked up 1.0% in Q3 from Q2, to a new record of $12.1 trillion, after having dipped in Q2, according to data from the New York Fed’s Household Debt and Credit Report. This increase is less than half the pace than the big jumps during the era of the 3% mortgages, when […]
November 7, 2023 | Mark Nestmann: The War On Cash, Past And Future
The Nestmann Group just posted a useful primer on the historical roots and likely future of the war on cash. Governments have been at this for a long, long time. Next up: CBDCs. The War On Cash Escalates Economists and governments have long had a very low opinion of the cash you carry in your wallet or […]
November 6, 2023 | Weak Hands
Happy Monday Morning! Let’s address the elephant in the room. I sent out this tweet last week and it went viral. I can’t comment on who it is, for obvious reasons, so please stop asking. Although it really shouldn’t come as a surprise that a developer with a large construction pipeline is suddenly feeling the […]
November 6, 2023 | Canada App Bans and Online News Act
A Chinese-owned app called WeChat, made for instant messaging, social media, and mobile payments, has been banned from Canada effective immediately as of Monday, October 30, 2023. The application was said to be removed from all government-issued devices and has been blocked for future downloads by anyone. While they did do a sweep through the app to […]
November 6, 2023 | The Coming Great Crash?
I fully understand that there are now so many calling for a Great Crash of all time as they have during each correction, big and small, for over 30 years, and they just never get it right, even once. Some tout the rise in interest rates. Others look at this chart and nothing else. If […]
November 6, 2023 | This Is What Inflation Does To Our Kids
Mainstream economics portrays inflation — defined as a currency that loses a bit of purchasing power each year — as necessary to lubricate the gears of commerce. What they don’t seem to understand (or would like the rest of us to not understand) is that inflation is also a tool for redistributing wealth from one […]
November 6, 2023 | Fed on Hold as Economy Weakens
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Bloomberg Radio to discuss the FOMC decision. Here is a direct video link.
November 6, 2023 | Tightening Further
Last week’s new short position report indicated a moderate increase in the short position on SLV, the big silver ETF, of 2.4 million shares to just under 19.8 million shares (18 million ounces). This increase came at a time of rising prices (as did a similar rise in the shorted shares in GLD, the big […]
November 5, 2023 | Medical Care for Migrants Crisis
Over 900 thousand migrants have crossed the border legally over the last year and over 600 thousand have crossed illegally. It is estimated at about 105 million migrants to have crossed over the border in just a year according to a Biden- appointed secretary. It has been an ongoing issue of seeking shelter across the […]
November 5, 2023 | Markets, Riots, War and Peace
[A change of tone and tempo this week from our good friend Richard Charles, owner of Lake Tahoe-based Alpine Capital. His observations concerning gold’s historical role during periods of intense global strife should remind us that bullion’s sometimes crazy price swings should not be investors’ focus right now. RA ] With plans to attend memorial service for a dear […]
November 5, 2023 | Debt Scores
Identifying problems is great. Identifying solutions is even better, especially when the politicians who are supposed to be solving our big problems don’t even try. In last week’s Debt Catharsis letter, I offered some ideas to start fixing the federal debt problem. To be clear, those ideas won’t balance the budget and in many ways are woefully inadequate. But […]
November 4, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For November 4, 2023
Stocks and bonds soared this week, and the US Dollar fell as markets believe Central banks are “done” raising interest rates Bonds 30-year Treasury futures fell ~20% from the post-SVB highs in April to last week’s 16-year lows. (Yields rose from 3.55% to 5.10%.) The market turned higher last week and soared this week on a […]
November 4, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday November 4th 2023
The Bottom Line The strongest period of seasonal strength in the year for North American equity indices from October 27th to January 5th “started with a bang” last week. The S&P 500 Index jumped % and the TSX Composite Index advanced %. Trigger for the advance was news that the Federal Reserve held the Fed […]
November 3, 2023 | There is No Free Lunch
From a Ben Bernanke speech in 2011: “Perhaps the most important thing for people to understand about the federal budget is that maintaining the status quo is not an option. Creditors will not lend to a government whose debt, relative to national income, is rising without limit; so, one way or the other, […]
November 3, 2023 | The Federal Reserve Issues a Margin Call
The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged this week, at the highest level since 2001. The chair, Jerome Powell, insisted that the Fed might have to hike more, if inflation does not behave in the next few months. The last rate hike in the U.S. occurred in July 2023, after a streak of 11 hikes that […]
November 2, 2023 | Nordic Countries Promise Mass Deportations
Religious zealots have come out in full force in recent weeks. European nations are now realizing that they made a grave mistake by opening their doors to countless migrants who do not share the same culture or values. Reuters reported that Nordic governments are now planning to deport immigrants who have not established legal residence. Denmark has […]
November 2, 2023 | Lacy Hunt on The Impending Recession and Implications
A worthwhile review in this 1-hour segment. Legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt joins Julia La Roche on episode 115 for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy and why we’re facing an impending recession. Here is a direct video link.
November 1, 2023 | US Treasury Secretary Unclear on the Concept of a “Deficit”
I have both good and bad news. The bad news is that the US government is continually spending with no end in sight. The proxy wars have eliminated even a level-headed discussion of anything akin to a real budget. In a move that angered Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen (also good news) Republicans introduced legislation to reduce […]
November 1, 2023 | What Interest Rates Say About Home Prices
The average home price in Canada ($757k) is about 141% higher than what is considered affordable for the average household income. In the highest-population areas, like the Greater Vancouver and Toronto Areas, where incomes and home prices are higher than the national average, the affordability numbers are much worse. Price-to-income ratios in the mid-west and […]
November 1, 2023 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, October Update: 10 of the 20 Metros Down from their Peaks Last Year, 6 Metros Set New Highs
We like the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index because it’s based on the “sales-pairs method” comparing the sales price of the same house over time, thereby eliminating the issues associated with median price indices (see “Methodology” toward the end of the article). And we like it because it shows the 20 metros it covers […]