April 16, 2025 | Investing in Uncertain Times

Some worthwhile macro observations in this discussion. DoubleLine Deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman moderates a discussion on April 3, the day after President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement, between DoubleLine CEO-CIO Jeffrey Gundlach and Quill Intelligence CEO and Chief Strategist Danielle DiMartino Booth on the current state of the market and economic outlook. The discussion was […]

April 15, 2025 | Canada’s Housing Market Downturn Grinds into Year Four

Market consensus pegs a 58% probability that the Bank of Canada will hold its overnight rate at 2.75% tomorrow, with a 42% chance of a 25-bp cut to 2.50%. This morning’s milder-than-expected Canadian inflation news, CPI of 2.3% year-over-year in March, was welcome. Canada’s consumer carbon tax ends in April, and oil (WTIC) around $61 […]

April 14, 2025 | Rough Ride Exacting a Toll

Preliminary estimates show that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment for the US plunged to 50.8 in April—below forecasts of 54.5—and the lowest level since June 2022. Consumer sentiment has fallen 40% since November 2024 (below since 1970, courtesy of The Financial Times).At the same time, tariff announcements drove year-ahead inflation expectations to 6.7% (from […]

April 10, 2025 | Bouncing Downhill

Yesterday afternoon, news of a 90-day US trade tariff pause sparked jubilation in stock markets. The 9.5% bounce in the S&P 500 was the third-best day since 1950, and other indices followed suit. Lest we lack perspective, the other two best S&P 500 days were +12% on October 13, 2008, and +11% on October 28, […]

April 9, 2025 | Driving Drunk Without Brakes

I’ve continuously pointed out the danger of asset bubbles because they commonly lead to a slippery slope of destructive behaviours, threatening the health and stability of individuals, businesses, and the economy. After a dramatic wipeout in March 2020, stock prices rebounded into December 2021 before plunging into October 2022. Rebounding again, some sectors finally reclaimed […]

April 8, 2025 | “This Type of Thing Usually Ends with Forced Liquidations”

Understanding that “defensive” equities offer little protection in bear markets is critical to meaningful capital protection. The table below (courtesy of Gary Shilling) shows what happened to different sectors and the S&P 500 index overall during past recessions. Trying to hold through deep declines is hard; most people understandably panic after they have sustained big […]

April 7, 2025 | Asset Bubble Bug Finds Another Windshield

Financial commentators predictably blame the Trump administration for ‘unexpected’ market losses. Two things about that: the tariff file was not unexpected. Trump has promised to do this for a long time. Secondly, major downdraft cycles are the natural and recurring aftermath of debt abuse and asset bubbles. Reckless risk-taking was an international pastime during the […]

April 4, 2025 | Hits Keep Coming

Many people are now starting to realize (again) that they lack meaningful risk management and their financial health is in danger. The segments below offer some lucid economic observations. Wall Street economists predict a US recession this year and a return to pandemic-level inflation due to the Trump administration’s announcement of major tariffs on global […]

April 3, 2025 | DOGE Broadens Its Scope

Financial markets have many moving parts and the new Trump administration unnerves the status quo on both sides of the aisle. Inevitably, both good and bad will result from all of this mayhem. We must be capable of cognitive dissonance and hold opposing assessments depending on the issue; many are not. If asset bubbles continue […]

April 2, 2025 | Heads Up

Historically, when the S&P 500 has fallen 10% and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has declined 50+ basis points, the U.S. economy has been heading into recession about 70% of the time. We reached both milestones in March. The economically sensitive small-cap Russell 2000 index is down 17% since last November, and Canada’s […]

April 1, 2025 | Ice Storm For The Ages

It’s hard to imagine how damaging ice storms can be without witnessing them. After six decades of living in the north, this experience was a first for me. Big trees become weapons of mass destruction. There’s still no power or internet in our area. After a full day of sawing, cutting, and dragging tree parts, […]

March 31, 2025 | Ice Carnage Made in Canada

This weekend’s ice storm hit hard. Since Saturday, we have relied on a generator and intermittent cell service. We’re the lucky ones in that only our yard was decimated by crashing trees. Many people sustained direct hits to their homes. It looks like a war zone. Fortunately, warm air has melted the assailing ice sheets […]

March 26, 2025 | DDB Macro Update

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Jeremy Szafron of Kitco News to discuss why the U.S. may already be in a private-sector recession. From rising layoffs and corporate bankruptcies to tightening credit and collapsing consumer demand, DiMartino Booth reveals the economic cracks the mainstream continues to miss. Here is a direct […]

March 25, 2025 | TD: Canadian Recession in 2025

TD Economics’ latest Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast largely comports with our assessment of an incoming Canadian recession. The wildcard is how much government support can soften the depth of the downturn and contain job losses. TD has a hopeful view. Here are the main takeaways: Canada has borne the brunt of President Trump’s tariff action despite having […]

March 24, 2025 | Wilful Blindness Tends To Be Financially Destructive, In The End

For decades, my mission has been to help individuals with finite lifespans make unvarnished, clear-eyed financial assessments and plans that will serve them well through complete market cycles. Fortunately, we have attracted a strong base of clients who value the approach. But we’re far from mainstream. I am regularly asked to review the portfolios/asset allocations […]

March 21, 2025 | How Bad is Canada’s Fentanyl Problem?

This is unsettling stuff with broad implications for Canada, but the first steps to recovery are to admit, repent and reform. Most of the 2022 Cullen Commission 101 Recommendations have yet to be implemented. Port Coquitlam, Vancouver Mayor Brad West Describes U.S. Government Concerns with Canada, Says He Would Serve as Fentanyl Czar if a New Government […]

March 20, 2025 | Falling Shelter Prices are Good, but Also Painful

According to data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), February Canadian home sales fell 9.8% from January and were 10.4% lower than in February 2024. The drop in sales was most pronounced in the Greater Toronto Area but relatively broad-based, with declines in three-quarters of local and almost all large markets, said CREA. See Canadian […]

March 19, 2025 | Macro Update: Powell’s Dangerous Trap

Inflation is dropping quickly, and other concerning trends, including mass layoffs, are developing. But you wouldn’t know it from reading the headlines. QI Research founder Danielle DiMartino Booth has been calling attention to underreported recession signals since our last interview in May, when she highlighted rising store closures and job losses. As she said then, […]

March 18, 2025 | U.S. Recession Odds Spike with Households Pessimistic and Risk-Exposed

Last week’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey saw economic expectations plunge for Democrats, Independents and Republicans. Those expecting an improved financial situation one year from now reached the lowest since 1980 (shown below, courtesy of The Daily Shot). Those seeing improving employment conditions were the least since the 2008 recession (red line below since […]

March 16, 2025 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel

March 14, 2025 | Lessons From China (and Japan)

China’s economy is slowing. Amid weak borrowing, slack investment, deflationary pressures and uneven growth, the evidence points to China slipping into a “balance sheet recession”—a phenomenon our guest, Richard Koo, first diagnosed during Japan’s lost decades of the 90s, and then identified in the financial crises of both Europe and the U.S. The former New […]

March 13, 2025 | Canada Between Rock and Hard Place

As expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut overnight interest rates by 25 basis points yesterday, lowering the banking system’s base rate to 2.75%, the lowest since September 2022. In his prepared statement, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem struck a grave tone, saying, “We’re now facing a new crisis. Depending on the extent and duration of new […]

March 11, 2025 | Extremes Go Both Ways- It’s Called Mean Reversion

And, it’s gone…the widely owned Magnificient 7 stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet A, and Alphabet C), down a collective 20% from recent highs, have given back their Trumphoria election gains (see pink bank below, courtesy of my partner Cory Venable).   The downdraft to date is Apple -15%, Microsoft -19%, Nvidia -27%, Amazon […]

March 10, 2025 | Housing Downturns Lead the Worst Recessions

Real estate, the most widely owned and highly leveraged asset class globally, has historically led the deepest economic downturns. Has a housing bubble ever burst without devastating pain across the economy and society? Unfortunately, not. It is far better not to pump real estate bubbles with government incentives and excessive monetary stimulants in the first […]