August 1, 2024 | Gold The Place To Be For So Many Reasons

The shine is coming off AI

July 31, 2024 | Study: Canadians Experiencing Worst Standard of Living in 40 Years

The Fraser Institute conducted a study that found Canadians are experiencing the worst standard of living in the past 40 years. Conditions are beneath what was experienced during the 89 recession, the Great Recession, and even the early stages of the post-pandemic. What is going on in Canada? Justin Trudeau uprooted Canada’s fiscal landscape and […]

July 30, 2024 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, July 2024 Update. Below 2022 Peak: San Francisco, Seattle, Phoenix, Portland, Denver, Dallas, Las Vegas. New Highs: Miami, Los Angeles, San Diego…

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, released today for “May,” are three-month moving averages of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas whose sales were entered into public records in March, April, and May. So that’s the time frame. Over this period, home prices in all 20 metros increased from the prior month, in most […]

July 29, 2024 | Cash Flow Problems

Happy Monday Morning! As expected, the Bank of Canada slashed rates another 25bps this past week. It was a dovish press conference, with Tiff emphasizing excess supply in the economy. In the words of the BoC, economic growth likely picked up to about 1.5% through the first half of this year. However, with robust population […]

July 28, 2024 | From the Archives: How to Short Stocks – Is it finally time??

First, the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) were going to rise forever. Then they morphed into the “Magnificent 7” which many believe will ride the AI boom to infinity and beyond. Either way, the result is a wildly unbalanced market (and economy) supported by a tiny group of multi-trillion-dollar companies. We’ve seen […]

July 27, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for July 27, 2024

Reversion to the mean continues across key markets Big-cap tech stocks fuelled a ~50% rally in the NAZ (~39% in the S&P) from October to July; their recent weakness contributed to the NAZ falling ~10% (S&P ~5%) from record highs. The MAG7 market cap is down ~$2 trillion (~12%) since July 10.   The Russell 2000 […]

July 27, 2024 | This Week in Money

• Ross Clark:  Stock Markets, Tech Stocks, Gold, Silver, Canadian Dollar. Special Offer! 25% Off New Annual Subscriptions.
• Allan Angell: (11:13) Vancouver High End Real Estate, Real Estate Investors Selling
• Wolf Richter: (37:33) Stock Markets, Housing Market, Automotive Sector

July 26, 2024 | A Worried Bank of Canada is Cutting Interest Rates

Central bankers in Canada went out on a limb by cutting a key interest rate this week. The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark rate for the second time, by 0.25 percent to make a full ½ point reduction this year. The most powerful central bank, the U.S. Federal Reserve, has yet to make its […]

July 26, 2024 | Tech Stocks Drop World Wide

The love affair with junk bonds is over

July 26, 2024 | Large Upward Revisions of “Core Services” PCE Inflation Pushed Six-Month “Core” PCE Inflation to 3.4%, Worst in a Year

The revisions, the upward revisions, oh-la-la! The Bureau of Economic Analysis released today the PCE price index for June; and as part of it, the “core” PCE price index – the Fed’s primary yardstick for inflation – was revised substantially higher for May, driven by a large upward revision of the “core services” PCE price […]

July 25, 2024 | WTI Falls >US$4/b Over The Last Week To US$77.30/b On Weakening China Demand

The ending of President Biden’s candidacy for a second four year term has emboldened the Democrats that they could win the Presidency and end the worry of a clean sweep (Presidency, House and Senate) by the Trumpers. By endorsing Kamala Harris, Biden passes the torch to his VP and ensures that the campaign funds raised […]

July 25, 2024 | Is it Time to Take Defensive Investment Positions?

Aerospace stocks are taking off. Receive 50% Off VR Trader Newsletters! Enter Promo Code 2022HALFOFF.

July 25, 2024 | Rising Unemployment Now Bank of Canada’s Biggest Concern

Is a US Recession in motion?

July 25, 2024 | Is it Possible the Bull Rally is Over?

Crude’s expected break out peters out

July 25, 2024 | Are the BRICS Closer to a Gold Backed Currency?

Our overpaid politicians keep letting us down

July 24, 2024 | Housing Is Seriously Rolling Over

Let’s start with the fact that the average American can’t afford the average house. Not even close: Houses have been unaffordable for a while, but for a while, “investors” — i.e., private equity companies with access to cheap credit — took up the slack, sometimes buying entire neighborhoods and converting the houses to rentals. Now […]

July 23, 2024 | Early Sign of a Downturn in CA Home Prices

    Everybody knows where we’ve been.  Let’s see where we are going. History shows that extremely low housing affordability in CA tends to precede market downturns, as occurred in 1980, 1989, and as shown below, 2006.                I see no reason why this time will be any different. But Fear Not, Fellow Investors In […]

July 23, 2024 | Canada’s Economy Feels Like a Recession

Canada’s June unemployment rate of 6.4% was up 160 basis points from the cycle low of 4.8% in June 2022. Since the 1970s (as shown below courtesy of RBC), Canada has never had this trough-to-peak rise in the unemployment rate without the economy going through a recession (blue bars). The increase following the 2000-03 dotcom […]

July 22, 2024 | Zelensky Prepared for a Trump Presidency

Donald Trump has guaranteed to end the war in Ukraine if elected president, vowing to do so before his first day in office. The recent outpouring of support for Donald Trump has led world leaders to consider the possibility of a second Trump presidency. Perhaps no one would dread a second Trump term more than […]

July 21, 2024 | Tax Code Change for Emergency Retirement Withdrawals

Low-income Americans are in such dire straits due to the elevated cost of living that lawmakers are making changes to the tax code. No, naturally, the politicians are not voting to decrease taxes for those who can barely get by. Instead, they’re permitting Americans to pull a mere $1,000 out of their retirement accounts without […]

July 20, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For July 20, 2024

Risk assets had a key turn date When several markets reverse course on or around the same date, I define that as a Key Turn Date (KTD). It signals a (profound) change in market sentiment/psychology/positioning.   My favourite barometer of risk sentiment is the S&P 500 Index. S&P futures (and the cash market) closed at a record […]

July 20, 2024 | This Week in Money

• Ross Clark: Stock Markets, Gold.   Special Offer! 25% Off New Annual Subscriptions.
• Eric Hadik:  (9:56) Stock Market Cycles, Gold, Silver, USD, Cryptos, Oil
• Hilliard MacBeth: (45:07) Gold, Inflation, Real Estate, EVs

July 19, 2024 | The Fed will Cut Rates Too Late in This Cycle

Anticipation ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first rate cut is growing. Traders are betting on a first quarter-point cut at the meeting on September 17-18 as the most likely date, with more cuts to come later this year in November and December. But traders are wrong in thinking that rate cuts are good for […]

July 19, 2024 | Why Short Term Rates Should Be Your Nightmare

A suggested safe haven to protect from market crash